keynote: environmental quality - royal society · uk in dec 1952, london smog, 4000 died (+7000 in...
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Policy Application of science:
Environmental Quality
David Fowler
29th March 2017
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• The UK had major problems of Environmental
Quality in the mid 20th century
• Most industrial cities had exceptionally poor air
quality, many of the major rivers were severely
degraded
• Substantial areas of lowland Britain were a
lichen desert, many higher plant species failed
to thrive in urban areas and common forest
trees could be grown in the S. Pennine hills
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UK in Dec 1952, London smog,
4000 died (+7000 in the
following weeks)
London Smog
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UK Air Quality Priorities 1952-1970
• The Clean Air act 1956 focussed on protecting human health...cleaning the cities
• Reducing coal burning in cities, especially domestic combustion
• Smoke and SO2
• Moving industry, esp power stations to the countryside and using tall stacks to disperse pollutants
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Power plant moved out of cities to the countryside, output and stack heights increased (50 m to 200 m)
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1960s Acid Rain in Scandinavia was clearly an issue
issueto Regional Air Quality
ACID DEPOSITION
• Observations of changes in precipitation chemistry 1950-1970 (Oden).....Acid Rain
• Stockholm UN conference 1972
• A UNECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)
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Do not believe all that you read in Nature
Fake News in 1977
Acid Rain
‘ This diseconomy, on a scale of $10 million at most can be countered by corrective action on a European wide basis costing at least one thousand million Dollars’
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Artic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Armenia
Sweden
Georgia
Norway
Belarus
Czech Rep. Ukraine
Denmark
Moldova
Germany
Yugoslavia
Austria
Bulgaria
Liechtenstein
Turkey
Italy
Monaco
Cyprus
Switzerland
Malta
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
F.Y.R.ofMacedonia
Luxembourg
Albania
France
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Spain
Croatia
Portugal
IrelandUnited Kingdom
Romania
Russian Federation
Iceland
Kara SeaBarents Sea
North Sea
Atlantic Ocean
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea Caspian
Sea
Aral
Sea
Canada
of America
Kyrgyzstan
Artic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Armenia
Sweden
Georgia
Norway
Belarus
Czech Rep. Ukraine
Denmark
Moldova
Germany
Yugoslavia
Austria
Bulgaria
Liechtenstein
Turkey
Italy
Monaco
Cyprus
Switzerland
Malta
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
F.Y.R.ofMacedonia
Luxembourg
Albania
France
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Spain
Croatia
Portugal
IrelandUnited Kingdom
Romania
Russian Federation
Iceland
Kara SeaBarents Sea
North Sea
Atlantic Ocean
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea Caspian
Sea
Aral
Sea
Canada
of America
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
49 Parties in Europe, North America and Central Asia
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Air quality in London improved with time..
UN Stockholm conference 1972
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• Observations of changes in precipitation chemistry 1950-1970 (Oden)
• Stockholm conference 1972
• The LRTAP Convention 1979
• Sulphur protocol 1983
• The conversion of the UK government 1987
• 1999 Gothenburg protocol
Timing the change in Policy
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Air quality in London improved with time..
Black smoke and SO2
concentrations halved in 15 years….and halved again in another 15 years
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Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
• The Convention was adopted in 1979
• It is a framework on which has been built eight protocols now in force
• The protocols have aimed to increase ambition in a stepwise manner
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SO2 concentrations in 1970 and 1999
A reduction in SO2 concentration by two orders of magnitude
100 ugm-3in 19701-2 ugm-3in 1999
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Measurements : UK Networks
National Acid gas, and Aerosol Network (AGAnet) 30 sitesAmmonia network (85 sites)Rain chemistry network (Precip-Net)
NH3 SO2NO2
N depositionHNO3N Deposition
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An example of modelled hourly surface concentration of SO4in PM2.5
µg m-3
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Forest 2000 and 2020 exceedances of acidity CL
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European emissions of SO2, NO2 NH3 1880-2015 (UNECE)
2015 European SO2
emissions 7.3 Tg (4.3 EEC)
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% of ecosystems areaexceeding critical loads for N dep (year 2000)
Critical load exceedance
for N effects on ecosystems
)
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% of ecosystems areaexceeding critical loads for N dep (year 2000)
Critical load exceedance
for N effects on ecosystems
Loss in life expectancy
attributable to PM2.5
Loss in average life expectancy in months due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 (year2000)
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EMEP4UK: PM2.5 Composition and Controls
Vieno et. al., ACP 2015
Effectiveness of different emission control options to reduce UK PM2.5
concentrations
Controlling ammonia sources would be the most cost effective strategy and would deliver the greatest reduction in PM2.5
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• AQEG
• International Nitrogen Initiative, European Nitrogen Assessment, Our Nutrient World, global overview of nutrient assessment for UNEP/GEF, SCOPE report - drawing down N2O to protect climate and O3 layer, Cabinet Report on Volcanic Emissions …
National and International Policy Guidance
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Policy development and science
• Events have been a major driver (Clean Air Act)
• Science played a major role in LRTAP and EU legislation
• Sulphur was a great success
• Nitrogen has been more difficult and we have not developed consistent strategies
• PM, ozone
• A need for more, and wider synthesis, continued monitoring, better inventories, models….
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Do current policies fully utilise science ?
• Sulphur, Nitrogen, PM, ozone
• Biodiversity
• Food security and productivity V NUE
• Land use….is there a policy?
• Soil
• Water quality, flooding
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Total UK reduced N deposition 2013
• No trend in wet NH4
Deposition 0ver 30
years
• No trend in total
reduced N deposition
• Small changes in
spatial deposition
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NH3 Emissions & Total NHx Deposition (wet + dry + aerosols*)
*estimated as 0.05 of wet & dry from 1997 to 1999
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UK NH3 Emissions and Ambient Concentrations
Emission inventory -22% over 15 years