keynote: food security, agriculture and poverty in asia- peter warr
TRANSCRIPT
Food Security, Agriculture and Poverty in Asia
Peter Warr
John Crawford Professor of Agricultural EconomicsArndt-Corden Department of EconomicsCrawford School of Public PolicyAustralian National [email protected]
2
Food security is back on the international agenda, mainly because of recent increases in international food prices.
3
International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012
4
Three features of these real commodity price data are important for food security:
1. all three have declined markedly over the long term;
2. all three have been highly volatile; and
3. all three increased significantly in recent years.
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International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012
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How can agricultural policy promote food security?
Two kinds of national level agricultural policy responses:
. Policies to enhance domestic agricultural productivity
. Policies to raise domestic agricultural prices
Example:
In the case of Indonesia: both kinds of policies are in place:
. Supply-enhancing infrastructure, input subsidies, and research
. Import ban on rice designed to promote rice self-sufficiency by raising domestic rice prices
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Number of undernourished people in the world, 2010-12
Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.
329
535
Rest of world
Asia
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Numbers of
undernourished
people
Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.
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Prevalence and depth of food insecurity: cumulative distribution function
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Undernourishment:
prevalence and depth
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1990-92
1991-93
1992-94
1993-95
1994-96
1995-97
1996-98
1997-99
1998-00
1999-01
2000-02
2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
2008-10
2009-11
2010-12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
China India
3 ye
ar a
vg. u
nd
ern
ou
rish
men
t (%
)
Proportion of undernourished people: China and India
12
Proportion of undernourished people: Southeast Asia
1990-92
1991-93
1992-94
1993-95
1994-96
1995-97
1996-98
1997-99
1998-00
1999-01
2000-02
2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
2008-10
2009-11
2010-12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines
Lao
3 ye
ar a
vg. u
nd
ern
ou
rish
men
t (%
)
13
Proportion of undernourished people: South Asia (except India)
1990-92
1991-93
1992-94
1993-95
1994-96
1995-97
1996-98
1997-99
1998-00
1999-01
2000-02
2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
2008-10
2009-11
2010-12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Maldives Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Bangladesh
3 ye
ar a
vg. u
nd
ern
ou
rish
men
t (%
)
14
Proportion of undernourished people: North, West and Central Asia
1990-92
1991-93
1992-94
1993-95
1994-96
1995-97
1996-98
1997-99
1998-00
1999-01
2000-02
2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
2008-10
2009-11
2010-12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Georgia Kyrgyzstan Mongolia Yemen Tajikistan
3 ye
ar a
vg. u
nd
ern
ou
rish
men
t (%
)
15
Undernourishment and poverty in the developing countries
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Undernourishment and poverty in Asia
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Stunting among children under 5 years old
1980-1989 2010-20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 42.8
34.4
31.3 31.1
Asia
Other low and middle income countries
% o
f ch
ild
ren
un
der
5 y
ears
old
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Underweight among children under 5 years old
1980-1989 2010-20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
30.0
20.6
15.0
12.0
Asia
Other low and middle income countries%
of
chil
dre
n u
nd
er 5
yea
rs o
ld
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Undernourishment, poverty and economic growth
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Undernourishment, food availability and food access
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Summary and conclusions
1. The number of undernourished people in Asia is 65% of the global total.
2. In the last two decades undernourishment, childhood stunting and childhood underweight have all declined in Asia faster than in developing countries as a whole. But all these measures remain higher in Asia than elsewhere.
3. In developing countries in general and in Asia poverty reduction is ahead of schedule to achieve the 2015 MDG (goal 1). But undernourishment (hunger) is behind schedule.
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Summary and conclusions
4. Undernourishment is significantly reduced by expansion of agricultural output. This effect is by far the most significant component of economic growth.
5. Higher food prices significantly increase the rate of undernourishment.
6. It is not sufficient to rely solely on aggregate economic growth or overall poverty reduction to reduce the rate of undernourishment.
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Summary and conclusions
7. Agricultural policy should aim to expand agricultural output without increasing food prices.
8. This is most effectively done by raising agricultural productivity through investments in infrastructure and research, supplemented by food safety nets to assist those unable to benefit from economic growth and to protect against emergencies.
9. Agricultural protectionism operates by raising agricultural prices and thereby harms large numbers of vulnerable people.
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Thanks for listening