Kick-off meeting DG ECHO

20 January 2015, Brussels

Landslide risk assessment model fordisaster prevention and mitigation

“LANDSLIDE”

PROJECT PRESENTATION

GENERAL INFORMATION

Title

Acronym

Agreement number

LANDSLIDE risk assessment model for disaster prevention and mitigation (LANDSLIDE)

ECHO/SUB/2014/693902

Financing authority European Commission DG ECHO

Policy area Prevention

Priority Actions on the governance of risk management practices, including the integration of disaster risk assessments into the planning process and cross-border and cross-sectorial risk management practices for sustainable development.

Duration 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2016

Overall Budget Total budget: 574.939,97 €

EC financial contribution: 431.204,97 €

PARTNERSHIP

Coordinator:University of Camerino, Italy

Beneficiaries:Institute of Information and Communication Technologies - Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria National Observatory of Athens - Institute of Geodynamics, Greece (participates with the Region of Peloponnese) – Test area 1Province of Ancona, Italy – Test area 2 Regional Government – Smolyan, Bulgaria – Test area 3Bielsko-Biala District, Poland – Test area 4 

PROJECT BACKGROUND

Landslides occur in many geological and environmental settings across Europe and are a major hazard in most mountainous and hilly regions.

Every year landslides cause fatalities and large damage to infrastructure and property.

Intense and/or long-lasting rain fall represents the most frequent trigger of landslides in Europe and is expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

Population growth and expansion into landslide-prone areas is further raising landslide risks in Europe.

Actual methods for landslide evaluation are mainly based on scientific literature of geomorphologic studies and of historical landslide events, which do not consider, or underestimate, the impact of climate change.

PROJECT BACKGROUND

NEEDNEED

Therefore, it is important to provide new tools that can adapt to the new conditions by correctly evaluate and predict landslide hazards,

which is a fundamental prerequisite for accurate risk mapping/assessment and for the consequent implementation of

appropriate prevention measures.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a Landslide Hazard Assessment Model and Software for shallow landslide events triggered by rain fall, that on the basis of weather forecasts, predicts the corresponding landslide hazard, and sends this prediction to appropriate territorial authorities.

To test and transfer the Landslide Hazard Assessment Model and Software into the civil protection systems of the partner territories involved, all located in landslide-prone areas.

To involve other sectors concerned, in risk prevention and mitigation, by providing them with the new landslide hazard/risk maps, enabling them to consider risk prevention into their respective planning and development policies (cross-sector approach).

To involve the people directly concerned by the identified risks, to make them engage in self-protection and prevention activities and to distribute the responsibility for risk prevention at different levels of the community (land-owners, farmers, industry, citizens, etc.).

ACTION PHASE 1: Development of a Landslide Hazard Assessment Model and Software which can obtain a completely automatic evaluation of daily landslide hazards: Selection of 4 hydrographic basins (test areas) and the creation of a common framework

for correct adaptation and fine-tuning of the model to the 4 selected test areas Define and adapt a sub-model for the computation of the soil moisture dynamics to each

test area Define and adapt a sub-model for the computation of landslide hazards in the different test

areas Development of a web based software providing for both on-line and off-line operations

ACTION PHASE 2: Pilot implementation and trying out of the model and software in 4 countries: Training course for civil protection staff Help-desk service

ACTION PHASE 3: Establishing of local cross-sector risk prevention platforms and carrying out of “prevention days” Meetings among the different sectors concerned (cross-sector approach to risk prevention) Awareness raising events towards the people directly concerned by the identified risk

MANAGEMENT AND REPORTING TO THE EC

DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL AND SOFTWARE

JANUARY 2015 DEC 2015/JAN 2016

PUBLICITY

DECEMBER 2016

ACTION PHASES AND ACTIVITIES

TRANSFER & TESTING

A SUSTAINABLE APPROACH TO RISK PREVENTION

MAY 2016

MAIN DELIVERABLES AND TIME TABLE A Landslide Hazard Assessment Model and Software that can obtain a completely

automatic evaluation of daily landslide hazards, constituted of three core modules: A common sub-model for the soil moisture dynamics adapted to 4 hydrographic

basins – 31 December 2015 A common sub-model for the landslide hazard computation/evaluation adapted to

4 hydrographic basins – 31 December 2015 A web based software for the evaluation of landslide hazard both in the short,

medium and long-term – 31 January 2016 The definition of a standard method for the adaptation procedures of the model – a

set of guidelines (useful when extending it to new territories) – 31 December 2015 A hydrogeological database related to the 4 test areas, which also can be used for

future scientific/technical investigations on soil moisture dynamics – 31 December 2015

A database of historical landslide events occurred in the 4 test areas, incl. info on meteorological conditions for the corresponding period, which can also be used for future scientific/technical investigations on landslide risk – 31 December 2015

4 sets of hazard-, vulnerability-, risk maps and risk scenarios – 30 November 2016

MAIN DELIVERABLES AND TIME TABLE

Training Package in EN/IT/GR/BG/PL – 28 February 2016 A tutorial web based tool – 30 November 2016 Practical Handbook in EN/IT/GR/BG/PL – 30 November 2016 Project website – 31/03/2015 4 Online Bulletins: “Focus Landslide” – 31 March 2015, 31

December 2015, 30 June 2016, 30 November 2016 Project brochure in EN/IT/GR/BG/PL – 30/04/2015 Final Project Publication (layman’s report) – 30/11/2016 1st Progress Report to the European Commission – 31/08/2015 2nd Progress Report to the European Commission – 30/04/2016 Final Progress Report to the European Commission – 31/12/2016

Pilot implementation of the Landslide Hazard Assessment Model and Software in the four test areas – Italy/Province of Ancona, Greece/Region of Peloponnese, Bulgaria/Region of Smolyan and Poland/Bielsko-Biala District):

March-December 2016 “Prevention days” (awareness raising events) in the four test areas:

Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Poland: June-October 2016 Exchange meeting in Smolyan, Bulgaria (3rd SC-meeting) with

partners and invited experts: December 2015 Transnational exchange and peer review session in Bielsko-Biala,

Poland (4th SC-meeting) with partners and invited experts: June 2016 European mainstreaming conference including a practical workshop

to demonstrate and present the practical tools produced (Athens or Brussels): November 2016

MAJOR EVENTS

FOLLOW-UP

Continued use of the Landslide Hazard Assessment Model and Software by the civil protection departments of the partners involved.

The model and software shall be further transferred to other European landslide prone territories outside the partnership – (facilitated by training package, tutorial online tool, Practical Handbook, networking activities and mainstreaming conference).

The model and software is a concrete tool given by a complex system and will require further studies and analysis regarding the implemented mathematical models and the computer system infrastructure.

This system may be enhanced with other functionalities (evaluation of dynamic flood hazard, hydraulic risk and material transport, landslide dynamics and risk evaluation, agriculture applications of the soil moisture dynamics, etc.).

The developed computer information system may be a first useful tool for a wider high tech apparatus for the hydrogeological risk assessment.