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    Top Research in Global Economic Affairs

    Kiel Institute for the World Economy

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    Imprint

    Publisher 

    Institut für Weltwirtschaft

    Kiellinie 66

    24105 Kiel, Germany

    Phone: +49(0)431-8814-1 • Fax: +49(0)431-8814-500 • Email: [email protected]

    Editors

    Dr. Jürgen Stehn (responsible in accordance to §6 MDStV), Dr. Birgit Wolfrath

    Pictures

    Cover : Foto Renard Kiel; page 4 top: Institut für Weltwirtschaft, bottom f.l.t.r.: Sascha

    Klahn and Frank Schischefsky, auremar - Fotolia.com, Graça Victoria - Fotolia.

    com; page 6 : pressmaster - Fotolia.com; page 7 : Orlando Florin Rosu - Fotolia.com; page 8 : alex earle – iStockphoto;  page 9: Pugstudio - Fotolia.com; page 10 : mustafa

    deliormanli - iStockphoto; page 11: Franz Puegl - Fotolia.com; page 12 : Roman Milert

    - Fotolia.com; page 13: Roman Levin - Fotolia.com; page 14: wrangler - Fotolia.com;

     page 15 top: Dominic Clinton - Fotolia.com, bottom: tioloco - iStockphoto; page 16 top

    f.l.t.r.: Stasys Eidiejus - Fotolia.com, Jim Parkin - Fotolia.com, Jan Will - Fotolia.com,

    Digitalpress - Fotolia.com, Siegfried Schnepf - Fotolia.com, bottom: Sascha Klahn and

    Frank Schischefsky;  page 17 : christina kloodt fotograe, Foto Renard Kiel;  page 18 :

    fotograf-kiel.de; page 19: Institut für Weltwirtschaft;  page 20 top: ywoolf - photocase.

    com, bottom: Tanja Bagusat - Fotolia.com;  page 22 : ArtmannWitte - Fotolia.com, M.

    Johannsen - Fotolia.com, Pascal Eisenschmidt - Fotolia.com

    © Institut für Weltwirtschaft 2014

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    100 Years with the World in Focus

    World. Economy. Understanding. Shaping — for 100 years the Institute

    for the World Economy has been conducting its research with a global

    perspective on economic issues. On February 20, 1914 Bernhard Harms

    established what was known as the small “Royal Institute for MaritimeTrafc and the World Economy” in Kiel at the time. In doing so, he laid the

    foundations for an institute that was to grow into one of the major centers

    for economics, economic policy advice and training in economics today.

     Around 170 staff members, including 100 scientists, are serving this mis-

    sion in the year 2014, combining scientic excellence with practical eco-

    nomic policy recommendations and sound academic training.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    The Kiel Institute is one of the major

    centers for 

    ●  Research in global economic affairs,

    ●  economic policy Advice and

    ●  economic Education

    The Institute regards research into potentially innovative solutions to ur -

    gent problems of the world economy as its main task. On the basis of

    this research work, it advises decisiontakers in politics, the economy and

    society, and keeps the interested public informed on important matters of

    economic policy.

     As a portal to world economic research, it manages a broadly cast net-

    work of national and international experts, whose research work ows di-

    rectly or indirectly into the Kiel Institute’s research and advisory activities.

    The Kiel Institute attaches particular value to economic education and fur -

    ther training and closely cooperates with the world’s largest library in the

    economic and social sciences.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    The research of the Kiel Institute focuses on creating solutions to urgent

    problems in global economic affairs that meld economic efciency and

    social justice and offer adequate incentives for economic activity based

    on individual initiative. In order to quickly react to new challenges in eco-

    nomic research, the Kiel Institute’s research activities are organized in

    relatively small Research and Project Areas (organization structure). The

    currently seven Research Areas are working on well-dened researchprojects within our Programs „The International Economy and Internation-

    al Economic Policy“, „Economic Policies for Sustainable Development“,

    and „Macroeconomic Activity and Policy“. This decentralized structure al-

    lows for a exible allocation of researchers to Research Areas and Project

     Areas and facilitates the establishment of new elds of research.

    The research activities are supported by the services of the Kiel Insti-

    tute’s Centers. The centers provide consulting services to socio-econom-

    ic policy decision makers, generate the Kiel Institute economic forecast

    report, coordinate the post-graduate Advanced Studies in International

    Economic Policy Research Program, maintain the Kiel Institut‘s research 

    networks, inform the media and general public about current Institute ac-

    tivities, and provide infrastructure development services.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Program 1: The International Economy and InternationalEconomic Policy

    Program 1 deals with the causes and consequences of a growing inte-

    grated world economy. The unifying research theme aims at a better un-

    derstanding of the changing roles of certain tasks and skills, sectors, and

    regions in the structure of output and employment of a dynamic world

    economy. Specic research projects include the interaction of internation-

    al trade and investment with growth, the impact of globalization on rm

    and labor market adjustment, the transitions of economic, political, and

    cultural variables in the process of long-run development, and the agglom-

    eration and knowledge accumulation across regions.

     

    Research Areas●  The Global Division of Labor 

    ●  Knowledge Creation and Growth●  Social and Behavioral Approaches to Global Problems

    Research

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Research Area: The Global Division of Labor 

     Activities in this research area address the challenge of integrating an in-

    creasing number of countries into the international division of labor without

    widening the income gap between these countries, as well as the corre-

    sponding challenge of adjusting the pattern of specialization of integrating

    countries without widening the income differences within these countries.

    Research Area: Knowledge Creation and Growth

    This research area which is primarily concerned with the determinants

    of growth and inequality in the world economy is strongly focussed on

    knowledge creation, diffusion and application as the presumably most im-

    portant forces behind growth and inequality. However, as more traditional

    growth determinants remain important several projects deal with growth

    determinants other than knowledge such as institutions, infrastructure and

    economic policy.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Research Area: Social and Behavioral Approaches to

    Global Problems

    This Research Area analyzes the impact of social interaction and behav-

    ioral responses of the single agents on the emergence of global economic

    problems and the design of possible solutions in view of these results.

    Special attention is given to lack of global cooperation and excessive risk

    taking as two major sources of global problems. The Research Area takes

    the view that understanding human behavior in this context requires to

    know (i) how the brain works and, more specically, how motivational sys-

    tems and bodily reactions shape our decisions, and (ii) the impact of social

    interaction as people are usually not exclusively self-interested but also

    strive for fairness and equality. Therefore the analysis takes into account

    recent insights from related disciplines as neuroscience, psychology, cog-

    nitive science, and behavioral economics and explores their consequenc-es for addressing global problems.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Program 2: Economic Policies for Sustainable

    Development

    Program 2 focuses on two major aspects of sustainable development,

    namely global climate and environmental issues and strategies for poverty

    reduction in developing countries. Since globalization appears to weaken

    many traditional economic institutions and policy instruments, new policyapproaches at both the national and the supra-national level are needed.

    Specic research projects concentrate on policy elds where the impact of

    globalization has been particularly strong. Examples include the complex

    interaction of energy demand, the supply of exhaustible fossil energy and

    climate goals; the environmental consequences of increasing global trade

    and investment ows, the role of rural development in reducing poverty,

    and the allocation and effectiveness of foreign aid.

     

    Research Areas●  The Environment and Natural Resources

    ●  Poverty Reduction, Equity and Development

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Research Area: The Environment and Natural Resources

    Research activities in this research area focus on the allocation of envi-

    ronmental and natural resources. We investigate the factors inuencing

    the increasing scarcity of natural resources. Moreover, we assess their im-

    pact on the allocation of production factors and on the changes they bring

    to the world economy. The research focuses especially on the evaluation

    of international and national aspects of environmental policy measures

    leading to proposals for a rational and efcient use of environmental policy

    instruments.

    Research Area: Poverty Reduction, Equity and

    Development

    Broadly, the group deals with questions related to economic development

    in low income countries with a focus on equity and poverty. Our research

    revolves around the following themes that we consider particularly rel-

    evant for a number of poor countries:

    ●  the role of rural development in reducing poverty;

    ●  the challenge of allowing the poor to benet from natural resource

    wealth;

    ●  the impact of globalization – in particular trade integration and mi-

    gration – on growth, inequality and poverty;●  the allocation and effectiveness of foreign aid.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Program 3: Macroeconomic Activity and Policy

    Program 3 studies sources and consequences of macroeconomic uctua-

    tions and instability of the nancial sector as well as the repercussions

    of macroeconomic shocks and dysfunctions of nancial markets on the

    welfare system. Topics of particular interest include the effectiveness of

    monetary policy with imperfect commodity and labor markets; the identi-cation, measurement, and forecasting of risk and volatility in the nancial

    sector in light of the complex structure of interactions between various

    types of market participants; and the challenges for reform policies in the

    welfare society arising from changes in macroeconomic structures, demo-

    graphic shifts, and a closer global economic integration.

     

    Research Areas●  Globalization and the Welfare State●  Macroeconomic Policy under Market Imperfections

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Research Area: Globalization and the Welfare State

    The central questions of this research area are:

    ●  What are the challenges for the welfare society created by global

    changes, due to technological progress, organizational change,

    and especially globalization?

    ●  How should welfare states—with their objectives to provide social

    insurance, redistribution, lifecycle transfers, and access to services

    subject to market failures (such as education and health services)—

    respond to these challenges?

    ●  How should reform policies be designed to enhance people’s adapt-

    ability, so that they can turn themselves from losers into winners on

    their own?

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Research Area: Macroeconomic Policy under Market

    Imperfections

    The research area analyzes the transmission mechanism and the effec-

    tiveness of monetary policy in a world of rigidities and market imperfec-

    tions. As a starting point, the group takes the observed ination and out-

    put persistence, which is difcult to explain with standard new Keynesian

    models. Augmenting these models with real-world features like imperfect

    competition and unemployment, the group expects to improve the model

    t.

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    The Forecasting Center produces regular forecasts for the world economy

    and for Germany in particular. The Center cooperates with other economic

    research institutes in Germany and in the European context with the EU-

    ROFRAME  group and the AIECE. A major event for the Center is the

    traditional “Kieler Konjunkturgespräch”. At this conference, the outlook forthe world economy and current issues of economic policy are discussed

    with international experts. Other projects include the regular report on sub-

    sidies in Germany. A central task for the Center is to evaluate economic

    policies, especially monetary and scal policy, and to give advice to policy

    makers on the basis of the analysis of macroeconomic developments.

    Macroeconomic Forecasts

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Economic Policy Analyses

    The Kiel Institute prepares replies on current, essential questions of eco-

    nomic policy in detailed sponsored reports for international organisations

    such as the European Union, the World Bank, the International MonetaryFund and the OECD, and for national ministries at Federal and Land level

    in Germany.

    Policy Workshops

    With our Policy Workshops, we have devel-

    oped a new instrument for economic advice

    that stands out clearly from traditional spon-sored research. The focus of this innovative

    activity is a theme-centred workshop with spe-

    cialist papers, open discussion rounds and further interactive elements.

    The emphasis and specic points of a workshop are jointly identied with

    the client in preliminary discussion.

    Kiel Institute Barometer of Public Debt

    The Kiel Institute barometer of public debt cal-

    culates whether or not public debt in EU coun-

    tries is sustainable in the long term and reveals

    the level of haircut necessary for affected coun-

    tries to shoulder their debt on their own again.

    Policy Advice

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    The GES provides the opportunity for leading policy makers, business ex-

    ecutives, academics and other representatives of civil communities to nd

    solutions for pressing global problems. Comparable existing events also

    offer a global perspective, an interdisciplinary approach and internationalparticipants. What sets the GES apart is that it is:

    Action-Oriented: Its central question is „What is to be done?“ It aims to

    formulate and review policy and business strategies for addressing global

    problems.

    Research-Based: Its sessions are all supported by state-of-the-art re-

    search and its outcomes are meant to generate new research agendas.

    Interactive: The stakeholders of the GES interact in the Virtual GES (the

    GES internet platform) before and after the Symposium, as leverage to

    the exchange of ideas during the event.

    Global Economic Symposium

    www.global-economic-symposium.org

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    The Global Economy Prize is meant to honor those

    who have proposed creative, path-breaking initia-

    tives to deal with globalization. The challenges of

    globalization, such as structural change in labor markets, the increasingintegration of international nancial markets, the development of new

    products and new production methods, new types of vertical and horizon-

    tal integration of multinational companies, increasing worldwide demand

    for resources, and offshoring and outsourcing, can be deemed to pose a

    threat, or to constitute a force that unleashes the creative potential of open

    societies.

    Global Economy Prize

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    Kiel Institute

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    The scope of the Excellence Award, rst awarded in 2007, is to build a

    community of the brightest young researchers in the eld of global eco-

    nomic affairs. The distinguished researchers are granted intellectual, -

    nancial, and administrative support – through the Kiel Institute’s extensive

    resources – to pursue focused research programs in designated areas.

    The prize includes a research stay at the Kiel Institute, made possible by

    one of four scholarships: the Horst Siebert Fellowship, Porsche Fellow-

    ship, State Capital Kiel Fellowship, and Kiel Institute Fellowship.

    Excellence Awards in Global Economics Affairs

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Advanced Studies in international Economic Policy

    Research

    The Kiel Institute‘s Advanced Studies

    Program in International Economic Pol-icy Research was established in 1984.

    The ten-month program offers:

    ●  rst-rate academic and applied

    training in global economic re-

    search;

    ●  compact, high-level courses, taught by leading scholars from vari-

    ous universities;

    ●  top conditions for own applied research through direct access to

    the world‘s largest economics library plus support from experienced

    researchers of the Kiel Institute;

    ●  excellent foundations for a successful career with international or -

    ganizations, domestic policy and academic institutions, and interna-

    tional corporations.

    Kiel Summer School on Economic Policy

    The summer school addresses junior members of policy institutions as

    well as doctoral students with a strong interest in economic policy issues.

    The topics of the summer school are closely connected to the research

    areas at the Kiel Institute and are organized in cooperation with them. The

    summer school has found a strong interest in many countries; on average

    there were around 70 applications for the 25 places each year.

    Education

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Ensuring Economic and Employment Stability (EES)

    The EES is a policy-oriented network project that addresses the link be-

    tween the business cycle and unemployment. Research within the net-

    work aims at offering sound explanations for the size and persistence of

    uctuations in unemployment that many European countries have expe-

    rienced over the past few decades, and how these developments in un-

    employment are related to ination and economic activity. In this respect,

    the network gives particular attention to the interaction between the labormarket and the product market in determining uctuations in the rate of

    unemployment, output and ination. Such an integrated approach will ad-

    vance our knowledge of business cycle uctuations. More importantly, it

    will open the door for a better macroeconomic policy design that reduces

    the severity of recessions, and brings about faster economic recovery.

    www.ees.ifw-kiel.de

    Networks

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network (PEGNet)

    The Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network (PEGNet) unites re-

    searchers specializing in issues revolving around the poverty-inequality-

    growth nexus in developing countries, and connects them with German

    development assistance bodies. PEGNet provides a virtual infrastructure

    that enables efcient research cooperation in addition to promoting physi-

    cal meetings between network participants by organizing workshops that

    are generally held at the Kiel Institute.

    In addition, PEGNet organizes international conferences and workshops

    in order to spread research and practical development cooperation re-

    sults, to foster exchange between researchers and practitioners, and to

    attract new members for PEGNet.

    www.pegnet.ifw-kiel.de

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Kiel Earth Institute

    The idea for Kiel Earth Institute emerged from an intensive cooperation

    between the GEOMAR | Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and

    the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The KEI is a virtual research

    institution concerned with key issues of global change and their socio-

    economical consequences.Globalisation of economic activities, the scar -

    city of natural resources, and environmental change are challenges all

    modern societies have to face. The Kiel Earth Institute aims to develop

    practical solutions addressing these challenges and communicating them

    to society.

    www.kiel-earth-institute.de

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Economics is a new type of academic journal in economics. By involving

    a large research community in an innovative public peer review process,

    Economics  aims to provide fast access to top-quality papers. Modern

    communication technologies are used to nd for every research issue the

    best virtual team out of a network of highly motivated researchers from

    all over the world. Thus, publishing is seen as a cooperative enterprise

    between authors, editors, referees, and readers. Economics offers open

    access to all readers and takes the form of an e-journal, i.e. submission,

    evaluation, and publication are electronic.

    Economics

    www.economics-ejournal.org

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Facts and Figures

    Founding

    ●  founded on February 20, 1914 as the “Royal Institute for Marine

    Transportation and World Economy” (“Königliches Institut für Seev-

    erkehr und Weltwirtschaft”) by Bernhard Harms

    Legal form

    ●  independent foundation under the public law of the German federal

    state of Schleswig-Holstein

    ●  known as “An-Institut“ at the CAU Kiel, operates in close coopera-

    tion with the Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences

    at CAU, albeit as an independent institute

    ●  member of the Leibniz Association (Wissenschaftsgemeinschaft

    Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz/WGL) with a total of 86 research institu-tions in all 16 German federal states.

    Financing

    ●  budget allocation of 11.9 million euros (2013), of which 2.6 million

    euros constitute third party funds raised by the Institute

    ●  institutional funding shared equally between the federal republic

    and the community of German federal states

    ●  third party funding secured from other foundations as well as publicsponsors, institutions and companies

    Employees

    ●  roughly 170 employees, of which 100 are scholars

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    Organization

    ●  seven academic research areas on topics directly concerning world

    economy

    ●  eleven centers also responsible for providing advisory service on

    world economy, economic forecasts, Global Economic Symposium,academic training and public outreach

    Primary Tasks

    ●  research and advisory service on world economy, academic train-

    ing in economics

    Publications

    ●  in renowned academic journals

    ●  in own publication series: Economics, Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge,

    Kiel Policy Brief, IfW-Fokus and IfW-Highlights

    ●  Newsletter ifw brief 

    ●  Website www.ifw-kiel.de

    Presidents

    ●  Dennis J. Snower, since October 2004

    ●  Horst Siebert, 1989 – 2003

    ●  Herbert Giersch, 1969 – 1989

    ●  Erich Schneider, 1961 – 1968

    ●  Fritz Baade, 1948 – 1961

    ●  Andreas Predöhl, 1934 - 1945

    ●  Jens Jessen, 1933-1934

    ●  Bernhard Harms, 1914 - 1933

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

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    Organization Structure

    Board of 

    Governors

    Scientifc Advisory

    Council

    Economic Advisory

    Board

    Employee Council

    Equal Opportunity

    for the Disabled

    Program 4

    Think Tank

    Management Board

    Programs 1-3

    Academy

    Program 5

    Education

    and Services

    Infrastructure

    Administration Public Relations

    Presidential Department

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    Kiel Institute

    for the World Economy

    For more informatione please visit the homepage of the

    Kiel Institute for the World Economy at

    www.ifw-kiel.de

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    Kiel Institute for the World Economy

    Kiellinie 66

    24105 Kiel, Germany

    Phone +49 431 8814-1

    Fax +49 431 85853

    Email [email protected]

    Web www.ifw-kiel.de

    The Institute is member of the

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    KIELER FJORD

    A 215

    Central Bus Station