kigali rwanda 12 – 16 september 2016 · in southern africa dr nsadisa faka ... map for warning...
TRANSCRIPT
12th EUMETSAT USER FORUMKigali Rwanda 12 – 16 September 2016
SATELLITE AND WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES FORSATELLITE AND WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Dr NSADISA FAKASADC CSC
outlineoutline
• BackgroundP j t l d bj ti• Project goal and objectives
• Specific objectives• Project components• ActivitiesActivities• Conclusion
Region Covered by the Project: Southern African D l C iDevelopment Community
Background
• The review of emergencies from 2000‐2012 (RIASCO,2013) indicates that Southern Africa region is under sustainedindicates that Southern Africa region is under sustained pressure, both environmentally and socially.
• The findings show that 37 out of 47 international humanitarian emergencies were associated with an identifiable environmental shock/stressor, while ten events could be linked respectively to socio‐political triggers and p y p ggepidemics.
• It also underlines the short recurrence intervals for major h k f t i d th f lti lshocks for many countries and the co‐occurrence of multiple shocks annually.
• Flooding has resulted in at least one humanitarian appeal g ppannually since 2000. This has led to 26 flood‐related appeals.
Flooding in Southern Africa
Transboundary nature of Hazards
14 out of 26 recorded flood emergencies between 2000 and 2012 were b d i il li k d i l ltransboundary events, primarily linked to tropical cyclones;
The transboundary nature of hazards based on the weather system, and the resulting up stream runoff in these neighbouring states;resulting up‐ stream runoff in these neighbouring states;
It also led to additional downstream flooding onto the outlet area of the river basin in the region.
SADC has more than 9 main river basins which cross the region.SADC has more than 9 main river basins which cross the region. Regional approach becomes more reliable in the coping strategy for sustainable development. In spite of the importance of weather and climate, the availability of relevant p p yand reliable weather and climate information in SADC countries has been hindered by poor development of meteorological infrastructure and shortage of human resources. Both problems are caused by insufficient funding for meteorological services.
Project Goal and ObjectivesProject Goal and Objectives
• SAWIDRA‐SA aims at contributing to the overall of "Improving the Core Capacities of the Specialised National and Regional Climate Centres (RCCS) to meet the Needs of DRM Agencies".
• This will contribute towards reduction of poverty and negative environmental externalities.
• The project will also contribute to the achievement of the Hyogo Framework on DRM and Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s).
• This project will be implemented in 36 months and will provide technical assistance to SADC CSC and SADC NMHSs.
• It will develop the capacity to use Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and Regional Climate Models for seasonal climate prediction. p
Specific ObjectivesSpecific Objectives
• The SAWIDRA‐SA will have the specificThe SAWIDRA SA will have the specific objectives focused on: the improvement of meteorological infrastructurethe improvement of meteorological infrastructure equipment for catering early the strengthening of early warning system in the strengthening of early warning system in Member States countries through the extreme weather and climate information generation for disaster risk reduction and the development of a regional meteo‐alert system; the capacity building in early warning at all levels.
IMPROVEMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUIPMENT
The improvement of meteorological infrastructure equipment is in line with the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan and will be mainly concerned on: strengthening of the Meteorological Observation Networks in g g gthe SADC region;
improvement of Meteorological Telecommunications and communication systems for rapid data collection, exchange and y p , gdissemination of data and information;
acquisition of data facilities and equipment for processing of Regional Advances Retransmission Service (RARS) of polar satellite information;
acquisition of hardware and software on High Performance Computer for Member States and Numerical Weather
di i d li d l fPrediction and climate models software.
P j t ID N P Z1 CZ0 003 Project ID No : P Z1 CZ0 003
TWO OPTIONS OF THE SETUP
Display and data recovery Network
Project ID No.: P-Z1-CZ0-003 ITB Number: SADC/AfDBACMADDMC/CSCPROJECT/3/2012
Angola Met Department Luanda
DRC Met Department Kinshasa
Lesotho Met Department Maseru
Malawi Met Department Lilongwe
Mozambique Met Department Maputo
Project ID No.: P-Z1-CZ0-003 ITB Number: SADC/AfDBACMADDMC/CSCPROJECT/3/2012 ‐DISPLAY&DATARECOVERYNETWORK JULY2015
Botswana
GPRS SIM CARD
Angola
GPRS SIM CARD
Lesotho GPRS SIM CARD
DRC GPRS SIM CARD
Malawi GPRS SIM CARD
CEA 530
CEA5
30
CEA 530
CEA 530
CEA5 30
INTERNET
INTERNET
Network Data
CimWEB
Data Duplication
BotswanaMet Department
Gaborone
Network Data
Central PC
External SADC System
SADC-CSC Network Center
Source Country Data Only
Central PC
CimNET
● Real time connection ● Automatic data export
External SADC System
● External database ● External application
INTERNET
NamibiaSwaziland Met
ZambiaMet
Zimbabwe Met
INTERNET
Mozambique
Namibia
Swaziland
ZambiaaZimbabwe
Namibia Met Department Windhoek
Met Department Mbabane
Met Department Lusaka
MetDepartment Harare
q
GPRS SIM CARD
GPRS SIM CARD
GPRS SIM CARD
GPRS SIM CARD
GPRS SIM CARD
CEA5 30
CEA53
0
CEA53
0
CEA5
30
CEA5 30
10
SADC‐CSC REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE PROJECTScope of Scope of supplysupply –– HARDWARE (3/3)HARDWARE (3/3)
Common Hardware: 3 x HP 42u Racks
Hardware for NWP
1 x HP 3PAR storage base
1 x Tape Library
Switches...
Données Temps réel
SADC‐CSC REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE PROJECTDevelopDevelop regionalregional climateclimate datasetsdatasets
SADC MEMBER
AMSS
SADC MEMBER
Transmet
@@SADC
SADC MEMBERSADC MEMBER
SADC MEMBERSADC MEMBER
CliSys
@@
@@
SADC MEMBERSADC MEMBER
@@@@
SADC MEMBER
Données Temps réel
II. EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION GENERATION FOR
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
• 1 Forecast of extreme event with NWP:1. Forecast of extreme event with NWP:– generate localized and tailored severe weather and short‐term weather information for users’short term weather information for users contingency planning;
– produce medium‐term weather information forproduce medium term weather information for users’ logistics planning, analysis of risks to climate variability and change;
– identify risk management and adaptation options; – develop decision‐support tools;
Central Information & Processing SystemWhatWhat Real time DB (obs, sat, NWP, …) Archiving system (easy access), Data browser (high level access),
LRF StorageClimate Scenario…
DownscalingLRF production…
ata b o se ( g e e access), High Performance Computing (e.g.
Cluster)
WhyWhy Get a comprehensive & open Central
Information System Enable NMS to manage data and set
h d l d iup, test, schedule, run and supervise all relevant central operational tasksat HQ level
WhereWhere NMHSs and SADC CSC
How : joint CSC‐EWS Supplier
Downscaling methodsDownscaling methodsXlarge
YlocalF(Xlarge,σ)
Ylocal
II. EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION GENERATION FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ….cont.
• 2. seasonal outlook – Model development – Consensus forecast generation;I t i bilit l i (d / t ll)– Intravariability analysis (dry/wet spell);
• 3. generation of water related outlook (drought and flood)and flood)– River flow Outlooks, – Flood and Drought Forecasting. – The flood forecast will provide information about the onset of flood, duration, and dates of flood recession.
– Dissemination of products.p
III. DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL METEO‐ALERT SYSTEM
• development of the regional models for meteoalarm system,
• designing of online system to display the output g g y p y pof the NWP model over the southern Africa, in connection with the NMSs
• maintenance and feeding of the web based system.system.
Warnings MODULEg
Drought WatchDrought WatchGPC products
Regional Tailoredproducts
VerificationVerification
Data access
Drought Outlook•Current drought situation
Text+ maps
Monthly ForecastText + maps
Seasonal ForecastText + maps
Map for warning with boundary of interest should be provide (shape format)
WARNING DROUGHT GUIDELINES
IV. CAPACITY BUILDING IN EARLY WARNING AT ALL LEVELS