KilwinningLocality Partnership

Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership

Kilwinning ‐ What the Profile will cover

• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015• Population change – from 2012 to 2026• Life expectancy• Household Incomes• Education ‐ results at key stages• Housing – average house prices• Key strengths and challenges

Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 )

• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups.

• Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire”

• The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5 priorities. This was the case for both  North Ayrshire as a whole and for respondents within the Garnock Valley Locality.

• In the Kilwinning locality 43% of respondents selected it as one of their top 5 aims

People’s Panel

4339

35 32 31 31

05

101520253035404550

We live our livessafe from crime,disorder and

danger

We realise ourfull economicpotential withmore and betteremployment

opportunities forour people

Our youngpeople aresuccessfullearners,confidentindividuals,effective

contributors andresponsiblecitizens

Our public services are high 

quality, continually improving, efficient and responsive to local people’s 

needs

Our children havethe best start inlife and are ready

to succeed

“We have improved the life 

chances for children, young people and 

families at risk” 

Percentage of Kilwinning respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim 

• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.

• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:

– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?

– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans?

Locality Planning workshops 

47.9

61.2

70.9

53.2

60.9

38.5

43.6

59.5

91.3

19.7

21.6

9.3

26.6

17.3

36.1

30.8

4.0

0.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Arran

Irvine

Kilwinning

Three Towns

Garnock Valley

North Coast

Cumbrae

Third Sector Interface

Youth Groups

Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook

Overall Positive

Neutral

Overall Negative

Population Change

4,589 

21,090 

39,085 

17,255 

21,450 

32,981 

 ‐

 5,000

 10,000

 15,000

 20,000

 25,000

 30,000

 35,000

 40,000

 45,000

Arran GarnockValley

Irvine Kilwinning NorthCoast

ThreeTowns

Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Popu

latio

n

Kilwinning Population Projection 2012‐2026

0 to 17

18 to 64

65+

‐23%

34%

‐12%

21%

62%

17%

Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 -Kilwinning

Working Age18‐64yrs

Over 65s

0‐17yrs

Kilwinning2012

Source:  National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016

Over 65s

0‐17yrs

Working Age18‐64yrs

21%

54%

25%

Kilwinning2026

Population change to 2026 summary

Between 2012 and 2026 the population of:• North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -4% • Kilwinning will decrease -11%• Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in

size in Kilwinning locality (up by 34%), similar to North Ayrshire which will increase by 31%

• Under 18s in North Ayrshire are projected to decrease by 9% while this group will decrease by -12% in Kilwinning

• Working age residents will decline by more than -13% across North Ayrshire compared with a -23% fall in Kilwinning

Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire 

73.8

77.1

73.5

75.9

73.2

76.5

74.4

78.2

70.0

71.0

72.0

73.0

74.0

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014

Life Expectancy  ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014

ScotlandEast AyrshireNorth AyrshireSouth Ayrshire

Kilwinning 1

76.2 years

MALES

FEMALES

Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire  

North Ayrshire

76.5 years

North Ayrshire

81.0 years

Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates

Scotland 76.6 years

Kilwinning 1

80.8 years

Scotland 80.8 years

1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant Kilwinning intermediate zones 

71.0

75.4

76.6

76.9

92.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Irvine Castlepark NorthIrvine Fullarton

Irvine Castlepark SouthStevenston North West

Kilwinning West and BlacklanIrvine BroomlandsArdrossan Central

Irvine CentralIrvine BourtreehillSaltcoats Central

Irvine EastSaltcoats North EastDalry East and Rural

Kilbirnie South and LongbarLargs Central and Cumbrae

Stevenston HayocksBeith East and RuralIrvine Tarryholme

Kilwinning PennyburnArdrossan North East

Irvine Girdle Toll and StanecaBeith WestScotland

Dalry WestKilwinning Central and North

Stevenston ArdeerDreghorn

Irvine Perceton and LawthornWest Kilbride and Seamill

Kilbirnie NorthSaltcoats North West

Largs NorthSpringside and Rural

Largs SouthArdrossan North West

ArranFairlie and Rural

Skelmorlie and RuralKilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside

Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) 

Kilwinningareas are in Yellow

75.5

80.0

80.8

81.6

85.2

65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0

Saltcoats North EastKilwinning West and Blacklan

Ardrossan CentralIrvine Fullarton

Saltcoats CentralIrvine Castlepark South

Irvine BourtreehillStevenston Hayocks

Kilbirnie South and LongbarIrvine Castlepark NorthArdrossan North East

Stevenston ArdeerDreghorn

Stevenston North WestKilwinning Pennyburn

Beith WestIrvine East

Saltcoats North WestLargs Central and Cumbrae

ScotlandIrvine Central

Irvine Perceton and LawthornKilwinning Central and North

Dalry WestBeith East and Rural

Ardrossan North WestLargs South

Kilbirnie NorthDalry East and Rural

Irvine Girdle Toll and StanecaArran

Irvine TarryholmeSpringside and Rural

Largs NorthIrvine Broomlands

Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and WoodsideWest Kilbride and Seamill

Skelmorlie and RuralFairlie and RuralFemale Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones)

Kilwinningareas are in Yellow

Education

Household Income ‐ Kilwinning

£30,537

£34,625£36,402

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire)

North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

15.0

26.1

18.1

13.7

9.3

15.5

2.2

12.2

22.7

17.2

13.9

10.2

19.8

4.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

£0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+

Percen

tage of h

ouseho

lds

Gross Household Income (% of households by locality )

Arran Garnock Valley Irvine

Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns

North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

House Prices

193,000 

92,000 85,000 

60,000 

 ‐

 50,000

 100,000

 150,000

 200,000

 250,000

Med

ian Price  (£

)Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements

Source:   NRS Registers of Sasines 2015

48.4

31.8

‐20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0% Cha

nge 20

04 ‐20

14Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014

Summary

Strengths & Needs

Summary – Kilwinning

Strengths 

• Most positive locality regarding introduction of Locality Planning (Over 70% positive comments) 

• Proportion age 0‐17years projected to remain stable at 21% of overall population by 2026

• Highest male life expectancy in both North Ayrshire & Scotland (92yrs in Kilwinning WhitehirstPark)

Challenges

• Higher decrease in population (‐11%) compared with North Ayrshire (‐4%) over next 15 years

• Low female life expectancy in Kilwinning West & Blacklands5.5yrs lower than North Ayrshire at 75.5 years

• Lower attainment rates among S5 pupils at SCQF Level 6 (Highers)

• Some of the lowest household incomes in North Ayrshire

Next steps

• Six summary Locality Profiles• Comparator tables across 6 areas• Profiles made available on CPP web pages• Downloadable PDFs on new website