kinder morgan - terminal outlook - 2011_analysts_conf_04_terminals
TRANSCRIPT
Terminals
Jeff Armstrong President Terminals Group
Terminal Locations
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3 2 2 3
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2 2 2 2
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4 2 3 2 2 5 2 2 2 3
Netherlands
Legend Dry and/or Break Bulk Locations Liquid Locations Product Pipelines Locations Transload Operations
2 4 2 3 3 2 3 2 7
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Historical Growth($ in millions)
2006 Segment EBDA (a) Growth from prior year Internal Acquisition $396.9 24.7% 14.2% 10.6%
2007 $442.3 11.5% 2.3% 9.1%
2008 $538.8 21.8% 14.7% 7.1%
2009 $576.1 6.9% 6.0% 0.9%
2010 $646.6 12.2% 6.6% 5.6%
2011B $713.2 10.3% 6.6% 3.6%
Compound Annual Growth Rate =
13.1% (b)
__________________________ (a) Before certain items (b) 2002-2011 CAGR
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Financial Overview($ in millions)
2008 Revenue (net) Opex EBITDA Book income tax EBDA Sustaining capital (a) DCF Expansion capital (a,b) Operating margin $1,139.4 580.5 558.9 20.1 538.8 63.4 $475.4 $303.9 49.1%
2009 $1,081.7 501.2 580.5 4.4 576.1 64.6 $511.5 $219.0 53.7%
2010 $1,244.8 591.5 653.3 6.7 646.6 77.3 $569.3 $220.4 52.5%
2011B $1,310.8 585.8 725.0 11.8 713.2 84.3 $628.9 $130.6 55.3%
__________________________ (a) Excludes corporate overhead (b) Excludes acquisition capex
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Contract DiversificationLiquids Revenue Breakout (a)Other Liquids 3% Petroleum Crude/SemiRefined 5% Chemicals 12% Ethanol 13% Refined Petroleum 40% Vegetable & Other Oils 2% Biodiesel 1%Building Materials Ores/Metals 4% Breakbulk 7%
Bulk Revenue Breakout (a)Break Salt Bulk Soda Ash 3% 1% 3% Ores/Metals Bulk 26%
Ancillary Services 24%
Fertilizer - Bulk 8% Other Bulk 9% Petroleum Coke Group 17%
Coal Group 22%
Top-10 Customers (a) Top-10 Customers Total Revenue $391.6MM $1,310.8MM
3.6-yr Avg. Contract Life (b)
Liquids 4.3 yrs
Bulk 3.2 yrs
__________________________ (a) 2011 budget (b) Weighted average, as of 12/31/2010
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Currently Approved Major Projects: 2010, 2011, 2012Liquid / Bulk ProjectNew Ship Unloader Crane, Port Sutton Ship Loader, Vancouver Wharves, BC Tank Galena Park, TX Tank Galena Park, TX Tank Pasadena, TX Richmond Ethanol Pier IX (Virginia) Copper Concentrates Expansion, Vancouver Wharves Deepwater Looptrack & Loading System, Deer Park, TX Port of Houston, TX New Coal Dock / Terminal (Kellogg Dock) (d) DPRT Ethanol Gulf Infrastructure Carteret Expansion Carteret Infrastructure Linden Pipeline IMT, Port Sulphur, LA Whiting, IN Total Liquid Projects Total Bulk Projects First Full Year EBITDA ($MM)
In-serviceQ4 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 4Q12 Q113
Capacity (MMt/yr)(a)
Capacity (MBbls)
ProductFertilizers Copper Gasoline/Diesel Transmix Transmix Ethanol Coal Copper Ore Petcoke Coal Coal Ethanol Various Gasoline/Diesel Various Various Coal Petcoke
Capex ($MM)$7.5 22.3 (e) 7.6 4.3 3.4 5.1 41.2 12.8 (e) 16.2 18.2 12.6 17.8 10.8 60.5 14.4 5.4 66.5 59.3 $129.3 $256.6 $65.6
2.8 125 15 30 3.0 0.12 1.7 2.2 4.0 80(b)
2010
2011
1,035(b) (c)
2012 & Future
6.0 2.2 1,285 22.02
__________________________ (a) New crane has higher TPH ability, but facility is restricted by air permit to.450 TPH. New crane did not increase facilities throughput (b) Project allows for faster product movements and higher dock utilization, but not additional storage capacity (c) Pipeline allows for additional product movements, but does not increase storage capacity (d) Kellogg Dock is 50/50 JV with Slay (e) CDN / USD Conversion = 1 to 1
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Bulk Tonnage
__________________________ Note: acquisition tonnages represented as owned during prior periods
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Liquids Throughput
__________________________ Note: 2009 throughput was revised during 2010
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Coal / Petcoke
Global DemandSeaborne Global Thermal & Metallurgical Coal Demand (MMt)
__________________________ Source: Wood Mackenzie
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International Metallurgical CoalMarket Conditions & DriversGlobal Met Coal TradeMet Coal Imports (MMt) Europe Japan China Korea India Brazil Other World Imports 2008 73 66 7 20 24 16 28 234 2009 41 66 36 16 23 13 26 221 2010E 46 73 45 18 27 14 29 252
Global Steel Production (MMt)
China Met Coal Demand (MMt)
Met Coal Exports (MMt) Australia Canada U.S. Russia Other World Exports
2008 137 26 39 13 19 234
2009 131 22 34 11 23 221
2010E 148 22 47 17 17 252
__________________________ Sources: Platts Coal Marketing Days, The New World Economy and the Global Met Coal Market
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International Steam CoalMarket Conditions & Drivers
Over 300 MMt per year demand for steam coal coming from new coal plants coming online around the world. Chinese import steam coal jumps from 1 MMt per month in June of 2007 and 2 MMt in 2008, to 6 MMt per month in June of 2009 to over 8 MMt per month in June 2010. India has more than 70 GW of new coal plants being built and generation projected to grow more than 5% per year for the next 5 years Asian growth in steam coal demand projected to outpace Europe for seaborne steam coal supply
94 GW of New Coal-fired Generation On-line in 2010
Steam Coal Imports (MMt)Importer Germany U.K. Italy Spain Europe China IndiaTotal Asia / Pacific
2008 31 37 19 17 191 15 36 376 607
2009 28 31 16 14 176 62 58 431 635
2010 29 23 17 11 170 95 73 491 688
2011 30 26 19 9 176 105 88 523 724
2012 32 25 19 7 174 108 93 535 738
2013 32 24 19 7 172 112 98 552 758
2014 32 23 19 7 175 116 103 581 793
2015 32 22 20 7 176 119 115 599 814
Steam Coal Imports to India (MMt)
World Imports
__________________________ Sources: Peabody and IHS McCloskey Group
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KM Plays a Leading Role in the U.S. Distribution of CoalKM Coal Handling (TPY) Throughput (MMt) Export (MMt) 2009 32.8 2010 31.6 7.9 2011 41.2 13.6
Milwaukee Bulk Terminal Domestic Coal Cahokia Terminal Domestic Coal
Fairless Hills Terminal Import and Export Coal
Chesapeake Terminal Import Coal Kellogg Dock Domestic Coal Pier IX Terminal Import and Export Coal Grand Rivers Terminal Domestic Coal
Cora Terminal Domestic Coal
Port of Houston Export Coal
Shipyard River Terminal Import Coal
IMT Terminal Export Coal
Tampa Terminal Import Coal
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KM Response to the World Coal MarketIncrease outlet options and operating capacityEast Coast Coal Capacity Additions: 2 projects completed @ $77M Projects under construction @ $41MM
Other Potential Projects - Gulf / East Coasts: $167MM; 22 MMt in additional export capacity
PRB ILB Purchased Cahokia for western coal and Illinois Basin coal blending Built new facility at Kellogg Dock
App
Gulf Coal Capacity Additions: 1 project completed @ $5MM 2 projects under construction @ $81MM
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KM is the Leader in Petcoke Handling in the U.S.KM Petcoke Handling (TPY) Throughput (MMt) Total U.S. Tons (MMt) 2009 12.9 2010 12.6 37.1 2011 13.4 Ohio Valley Evansville Pinney Dock
Midwest Cahokia Grand River Terminal Cora BP Whiting (under construction)
Mid Atlantic Fairless Hills Chesapeake Bulk
Mid River West Coast Benecia Amory Columbus Decatur River Port Guntersville Hickman New Johnsonville
Southeast Shipyard River Tampa Bay Stevedores Tampaplex
Gulf Bulk ExxonMobil-Beaumont Houston Refining Great Lakes Carbon Deepwater Port Arthur Sweeny Port of Houston Total Port Arthur
Lower River Barge Canal Dock Calcined Barge Canal Dock Green IMT
__________________________ Source: For total U.S. tons - 9th Annual Petroleum Coke Conference - Jacob's Consultancy
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Fuel-Grade Petcoke2015 Regional Production / Demand Outlook
(MMt) 2010 2012 2015
Production ~78 ~107 ~136
Demand ~78 ~103 ~138
__________________________ Source: 9th & 10th Annual Petroleum Coke Conferences - Jacob's Consultancy
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KM Response to the Petcoke MarketUnder Construction (Acquisition) Total Refining Port Arthur, TX Timing: 2Q 2011 Volume: 1,000,000 tpy gtd. Investment: $74 million Petcoke handling at coke pit, hopper and crusher and ship loading at new dock, including coke cutting BP Whiting Whiting, IN Timing 1Q 2013 Volume: 2,190,000 tpy Investment: $59.3 million Petcoke handling from crusher outlet, storage, reclaim, load railcars In Service Houston Refining / Lyondell Houston, TX Double loop track, rail dump, belt conveyors Petcoke handling inbound via rail to stockpile, reclaim for outbound by vessel Investment: $16.2 million
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Petroleum Supply / Demand Storage
Growing Worldwide Supply
Worldwide Refinery Capacity Additions (MBbl/d)
Roughly 5 MMBbl/d of new capacity to be built 2011-2015 New capacity in Asia / Pacific & ME many governmentowned ~600 MBbl/d new North American capacity focus on USEC deliveries
__________________________ Source: Baker & OBrien
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Gasoline FundamentalsTotal Gasoline + Ethanol Inventories (MMBbls) Finished Gasoline Inventories (MMBbls)
Gasoline Blending Component Inventories (MMBbls) Legend Includes Ethanol
__________________________ Sources: CIBC, Weekly EIA Oil Fundamentals Snapshot, March 2, 2011
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Distillate FundamentalsTotal Distillate Inventories (MMBbls) Heating Oil Inventories (MMBbls)
Ultra Low + Low Sulfur Diesel Inventories (MMBbls) Legend
__________________________ Sources: CIBC, Weekly EIA Oil Fundamentals Snapshot, March 2, 2011
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Growing Middle Distillate Exports from the U.S. Since 2006U.S. Middle Distillate Exports (MBbl/d)
__________________________ Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly
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Renewable Fuels
RFS2: Four Annual Standards4. 3. 2. 1.
Total annual renewable fuel standard is shown on top of each bar on chart__________________________ Source: 2011 Houston BioFuels Consultants LLC
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KM Plays a Leading Role in the U.S. Distribution of EthanolKMT Ethanol Handling Storage (MBbls) Throughput (Bbl/d) 2010 4,415 159,180 2011p KMPP Ethanol Handling 4,962 Storage (MBbls) 193,268 Throughput (Bbl/d) 82,038 90,222 1,369 1,568 Throughput (Bbl/d) 811,285 874,103 2010 2011p US Ethanol Demand 2010 2011p
LegendKM Terminal Facility KM Products Pipeline Facility CSX TRANSFLO Facility; Operated by Kinder Morgan Materials Services
KM overall has a national network with optionality of supply sources for our customers.
__________________________ Source: 2011 Houston BioFuels and Kinder Morgan
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Only National Network of Ethanol Unit Train Facilities
Albany (Buckeye) Providence (Motiva)
Manly (Manly) RichmondKM KM
Albany(Global)KM
Stockton (Pacific Ethanol) UC Argo/Chicago
Sewaren (Motiva) Linden
Selby (Nustar) Sauget (Seacor)KM
Carson
KM
Baltimore Colton (USD) UC Birmingham (BioUrja) UC
Belton (Lincoln) Atlanta (Motiva) UC
Dallas/Ft Worth (Musket)
KM
Dallas/Ft. Worth
Tampa (UC)KM
Texas City (Oiltanking)
KM
Deer Park Not unit train capable UC Under Construction Brownville (TransMontaigne) UC
Pt. Everglades (Motiva) UC
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Linden, NJ
KM will connect the Linden Unit train facility with KM Carteret via direct pipe, to provide a larger storage base and a greater service offering.
KM Ethanol Projects
Deer Park Rail
DPRT Rack (above) and 80k bbl support tank (below)
KM Carteret
KM Linden
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Rail Opportunities
Why Watco?Watco Consolidated EBITDA$80,000 $70,000 $69,115
EBITDA ($000's)
$60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010P $10,212
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Watco Overview Operates in 28 states/3700 miles Over 500,000 Carloads handled Family owned, 2050 employees Rail / Transload / Mechanical 3rd largest US shortline
4 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 3 2 3
KM Legend Dry and/or Break Bulk Locations Liquid Locations Product Pipelines Locations Transload Operations
Watco Legend2 4 3 4 3
2 4 2 3 2 7
Watco Locations - 22 Shortlines / 23 witch Operations - 16 Transload/Intermodal Services - 33 Mechanical Shops/Services
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Why Partnership / Preferred Interest StructureFinancial Components: $50MM invested $100MM additional investment potential Project-specific Preferred distributions of 13% 0.5% equity interest Partnership Benefits: Preferred service agreement Significant growth opportunities Operating synergies Exceptional operator Future acquisition potential New coordinated services Shared best practices
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ProspectsRoll-up PotentialOwnership Control of U.S. Shortlines
Mature, Stable Markets
9% 13% 8% 70% 32% 3% 25%
11% 26%
3% Watco RailAmerica Genesee & Wyoming Independents (est. 340) Lumber/Forest Products Other Coal Metals & Minerals Chemicals Agriculture
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Emerging MarketsCrude Oil on Rail Ethanol on Rail
60,000
No. of Carloads
500,000 450,000
No. of Carloads
50,000
400,000 350,000 300,000
40,000
30,000
250,000 200,000
20,000
150,000 100,000 50,000
10,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
__________________________ Source: Association of American Railroads - Carloads
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