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Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit November 4, 1999 Patrick L. Phillips Senior Vice President Economics Research Associates Washington DC

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Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context

Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit

November 4, 1999

Patrick L. Phillips

Senior Vice President

Economics Research Associates

Washington DC

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Key Demographic and Economic Factors

• Population

• Age

• Education

• Job Distribution and Growth

• Retail Sales

• “Lifestyles”

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Summary of Key Issues

• Slow growth• Manufacturing dependent economy• Older population• Well-educated, but limited local

resources• Strong regional retail position likely to

erode

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities -Population Growth

• Both Kingsport and Bristol experienced a decline in population between 1990 and 1997.

• The population of Johnson City is expected to grow significantly between 1997 and 2002, while the populations of Kingsport and Bristol will increase only slightly.

• The population of Kingsport is growing at a significantly slower pace than the populations of the peer group communities, at one-fifth the state’s rate of growth.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities -Population Growth

POPULATION CHANGE, 1990-1997/1997-2002

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA

1990-1997

1997-2002

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesPopulation Growth

POPULATION CHANGE, 1990-1997/1997-2002

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee

1990-1997

1997-2002

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge

• The population of Kingsport is older, with a median age of 42.3 years.

• Over 21 percent of the population is over the age of 65, compared to 13 percent for the state as a whole.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge

MEDIAN AGE, 1997

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge

MEDIAN AGE, 1997

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge

PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 65

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge

PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 65

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation

• The population of Kingsport is relatively well educated.

• Nearly 19 percent of the population has earned a college degree or above, compared to less than 14 percent for the state as a whole.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation

PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE OR ABOVE

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation

PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WITH COLLEGE DEGREE OR ABOVE

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment

• Nearly 40 percent of Kingsport’s workforce is employed in manufacturing.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment

EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY SIC CATEGORY, PERCENT OF TOTAL, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Mini

ng/C

onstr

uctio

n

Man

ufactu

ring

TCU

Who

lesale

Retai

lFIR

E

Servic

es

Public

Sec

tor

Kingsport

Johnson City

Bristol, TN/VA

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment

EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY SIC CATEGORY, PERCENT OF TOTAL, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Mini

ng/C

onstr

uctio

n

Man

ufactu

ring

TCU

Who

lesale

Retai

lFIR

E

Servic

es

Public

Sec

tor

Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales

• Kingsport enjoys relatively high retail sales per capita.

• In 1997, retail sales per capita in Kingsport was nearly $22,000, or twice the retail sales per capita for the state as a whole.

• General merchandise represents nearly 25 percent of retail sales in Kingsport.

• “Median location” has shifted--will Kingsport’s position fade?

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales

RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA, 1997

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$23,000

Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales

RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA, 1997

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales

RETAIL SALES DISTRIBUTION, PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Bldg M

at'rl/

Garde

n Sup

.

Gener

al M

erch

.

Food

Store

s

Auto/G

as

Appar

el/Acc

esso

ry

Furnit

ure/

Furnis

hings

Eating

/Drin

king

Misc

.

Kingsport

Johnson City

Bristol, TN/VA

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales

RETAIL SALES DISTRIBUTION, PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Bldg M

at'rl/

Garde

n Sup

.

Gener

al M

erch

.

Food

Store

s

Auto/G

as

Appar

el/Acc

esso

ry

Furnit

ure/

Furnis

hings

Eating

/Drin

king

Misc

.

Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles

• How does Kingsport appear on the “radar screen” of national companies?

• Fairly or not, “Factory and Farm Communities” represent over half of the households in Kingsport. The majority of these households are designated as “Rustbelt Neighborhoods.”

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Affluen

t Fam

ilies

Upsca

le Hou

seho

lds

Up & C

oming

Sing

les

Retire

men

t Styl

es

Youn

g M

obile

Adu

lts

City D

weller

s

Facto

ry & F

arm

Com

mun

ities

Downto

wn Res

iden

ts

Pe

rce

nt

Ho

use

ho

lds

Kingsport

Johnson City

Bristol, TN/VA

U.S.A.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Affluent Families Retirement Styles Factory & FarmCommunities

Downtown Residents

Pe

rce

nt

Ho

use

ho

lds Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

U.S.A.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY (CONT.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Upscale Households Up & Coming Singles Young Mobile Adults City Dwellers

Pe

rce

nt

Ho

use

ho

lds Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

U.S.A.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesExamples of Economic “Repositioning”

• Chattanooga • Charleston• Augusta• Jacksonville• Binghamton, NY • Cleveland• Salt Lake City