kingsport: demographic and economic context presented to the kingsport economic summit november 4,...
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Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context
Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit
November 4, 1999
Patrick L. Phillips
Senior Vice President
Economics Research Associates
Washington DC
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Key Demographic and Economic Factors
• Population
• Age
• Education
• Job Distribution and Growth
• Retail Sales
• “Lifestyles”
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Summary of Key Issues
• Slow growth• Manufacturing dependent economy• Older population• Well-educated, but limited local
resources• Strong regional retail position likely to
erode
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities -Population Growth
• Both Kingsport and Bristol experienced a decline in population between 1990 and 1997.
• The population of Johnson City is expected to grow significantly between 1997 and 2002, while the populations of Kingsport and Bristol will increase only slightly.
• The population of Kingsport is growing at a significantly slower pace than the populations of the peer group communities, at one-fifth the state’s rate of growth.
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities -Population Growth
POPULATION CHANGE, 1990-1997/1997-2002
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA
1990-1997
1997-2002
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesPopulation Growth
POPULATION CHANGE, 1990-1997/1997-2002
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee
1990-1997
1997-2002
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge
• The population of Kingsport is older, with a median age of 42.3 years.
• Over 21 percent of the population is over the age of 65, compared to 13 percent for the state as a whole.
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge
MEDIAN AGE, 1997
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge
MEDIAN AGE, 1997
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 65
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 65
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation
• The population of Kingsport is relatively well educated.
• Nearly 19 percent of the population has earned a college degree or above, compared to less than 14 percent for the state as a whole.
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE OR ABOVE
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WITH COLLEGE DEGREE OR ABOVE
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment
• Nearly 40 percent of Kingsport’s workforce is employed in manufacturing.
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY SIC CATEGORY, PERCENT OF TOTAL, 1997
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Mini
ng/C
onstr
uctio
n
Man
ufactu
ring
TCU
Who
lesale
Retai
lFIR
E
Servic
es
Public
Sec
tor
Kingsport
Johnson City
Bristol, TN/VA
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY SIC CATEGORY, PERCENT OF TOTAL, 1997
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Mini
ng/C
onstr
uctio
n
Man
ufactu
ring
TCU
Who
lesale
Retai
lFIR
E
Servic
es
Public
Sec
tor
Kingsport
Columbia
Morristown
Murfreesboro
Cleveland
Jackson
Tennessee
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales
• Kingsport enjoys relatively high retail sales per capita.
• In 1997, retail sales per capita in Kingsport was nearly $22,000, or twice the retail sales per capita for the state as a whole.
• General merchandise represents nearly 25 percent of retail sales in Kingsport.
• “Median location” has shifted--will Kingsport’s position fade?
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales
RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA, 1997
$16,000
$17,000
$18,000
$19,000
$20,000
$21,000
$22,000
$23,000
Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales
RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA, 1997
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales
RETAIL SALES DISTRIBUTION, PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES, 1997
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Bldg M
at'rl/
Garde
n Sup
.
Gener
al M
erch
.
Food
Store
s
Auto/G
as
Appar
el/Acc
esso
ry
Furnit
ure/
Furnis
hings
Eating
/Drin
king
Misc
.
Kingsport
Johnson City
Bristol, TN/VA
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales
RETAIL SALES DISTRIBUTION, PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES, 1997
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Bldg M
at'rl/
Garde
n Sup
.
Gener
al M
erch
.
Food
Store
s
Auto/G
as
Appar
el/Acc
esso
ry
Furnit
ure/
Furnis
hings
Eating
/Drin
king
Misc
.
Kingsport
Columbia
Morristown
Murfreesboro
Cleveland
Jackson
Tennessee
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles
• How does Kingsport appear on the “radar screen” of national companies?
• Fairly or not, “Factory and Farm Communities” represent over half of the households in Kingsport. The majority of these households are designated as “Rustbelt Neighborhoods.”
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Affluen
t Fam
ilies
Upsca
le Hou
seho
lds
Up & C
oming
Sing
les
Retire
men
t Styl
es
Youn
g M
obile
Adu
lts
City D
weller
s
Facto
ry & F
arm
Com
mun
ities
Downto
wn Res
iden
ts
Pe
rce
nt
Ho
use
ho
lds
Kingsport
Johnson City
Bristol, TN/VA
U.S.A.
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Affluent Families Retirement Styles Factory & FarmCommunities
Downtown Residents
Pe
rce
nt
Ho
use
ho
lds Kingsport
Columbia
Morristown
Murfreesboro
Cleveland
Jackson
U.S.A.
The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY (CONT.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Upscale Households Up & Coming Singles Young Mobile Adults City Dwellers
Pe
rce
nt
Ho
use
ho
lds Kingsport
Columbia
Morristown
Murfreesboro
Cleveland
Jackson
U.S.A.