South Asia Media Briefing Workshop on Climate Change

28th August 2009India Habitat Centre, New Delhi

Jagdish KishwanMember Core Negotiating Group for UNFCCC

Government of India

Centre for Science and Environment

Role of Forests in Climate Change

• Forests are both sources and sinks of carbon• Forests contribute about 17.4% of global CO2

emissions• Forests provide large and relatively low cost

mitigation opportunities to address climate change

• Forests provide other ecosystem goods and services to communities to cope up with climate change

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2 equivalent

• Energy Supply 25.9%

• Industry 19.4%

• Forestry 17.4%

• Agriculture 13.5%• Residential and 7.9%

Commercial building

• Waste and Wastewater 2.8%

The Agenda

• Agenda Item on “Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to stimulate action” first presented in COP 11 Montreal (2005) in response to request of Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica

• COP11 invited parties and accredited observers to submit views on related issues and also to organize a workshop

Avoided Deforestation

Compensated Reduction

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (RED)

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD)

REDD+Conservation+SMF+Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks = REDD-plus or REDD+

Compensated Conservation?

Active Agenda Item with AWG-LCA (BAP) and SBSTA (REDD)

COP 13: December 2007Bali Action Plan: “…Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries…” [Para 1b (iii) of BAP]

REDD: “...inter alia, assessments of changes in forest cover and associated carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions, incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest…”

“Compensated Reduction”

Financial incentives to Non Annex 1 countries

for

reducing present annual deforestation rate and stabilizing it

in future

Indian Viewpoint on REDD

Comprehensive REDD = REDD+

Carbon Saved and Carbon Added

•Reducing Deforestation & Degradation

•Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests, Increase in Forest Cover (A&R)

Indian submission incorporates above and seeks incentives on

Incremental and Baseline stocks

Emerging Policy Options

1. Conservation, sustainable management of forests, increase in forest cover/A&R (Add C)

2. Reducing deforestation and degradation rates (Save C)

Country Groupings1. CN, SMF, IFC (China, India, Pakistan, Nepal,

Bhutan, PNG, Costa Rica, Sri Lanka Suriname, Congo Basin Countries, Malaysia, Thailand)

2. CN, SMF (Congo Basin Countries, Suriname, Cameroon, Nepal)

3. Reducing deforestation (Brazil, Indonesia, Bolivia, PNG, Columbia)

4. Annex I countries supporting incremental stocks and reducing decremental stocks

Policy Options and Accounting Approach

National Accounting1. Whole area under CN, SMF, A&R or2. Whole area under RD or3. Whole area divided into mutually exclusive

zones- i) CN, SMF, A&R, ii) RD

Sub-national Accounting1. Reported area under 1, 2 or 3???2. What about changes in C stocks in remaining

area? (Leakage?)

Poznan Highlights•SBSTA decision on REDD (SBSTA/2008/L.23)

– Replacement of semicolon (;) with comma (,) (para 4)– Reference made to para 11 of 2/CP.13: Bali COP

decision on REDD (paras 5, 8, 12, 13)– Single expert meeting (23-24 March 2009, Bonn) to

consider methodological issues relating to different policy approaches (CN, SMF, IFC, RD) together (para 6)- positive movement towards comprehensive approach

•Forceful and forthright statements of some Non-Annex countries for CN: Suriname, Nepal, Bolivia

A draft decision has been agreed at SBSTA 30 (June 2009)

Draft COP decision for adoption at COP 15 in Copenhagen is bracketed Draft COP decision for adoption at COP 15 in Copenhagen is bracketed

Draft Text for DecisionCOP 15

India intervened to have reference to India’s position on forest conservation, sustainable management of forests and

enhancement of forest carbon stocks in the draft COP decision. A new line to this effect was successfully got added in para 1 (a)

of the draft decision reading ‘to identify the drivers and activities within the country that result in reduced emissions,

increase in removals and stabilization of carbon stocks in forestry sector’ as part of our strategy to clearly define activities

that would be clubbed under REDD-plus.

Conference of Parties (COP) 15December 2009

in Copenhagen likely to come out with a COP decision on REDD

methodological issues

AWG-LCA Agenda Item 3:

Enabling the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action now, up to and beyond 2012, by addressing, inter alia:

(b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change;

(para 1(b)(iii) policy approaches and positive incentives relating to REDD; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing

countries)

AWG-LCA Agenda Item 3:• First and second reading of negotiating text

completed in Bonn (June 2009)

• Informal consultations in Bonn (August 2009)

• REDD policy option for mitigation will be finalized by COP 15 in Copenhagen

• Indian Position on REDD Policy prominently reflected in the LCA negotiating text

Best Option forLow Deforestation

Countries

Distribution of Global forest cover by region (%)

16.1

14.5

25.3

17.9

5.2

21

Africa

Asia

Europe

N and C America

Oceania

S America

10 Countries with largest forest cover(Million ha)

808

478310

303

197

164

13488 6968

Russian Fedeartion

Brazil

Canada

US

China

Australia

DR Congo

Indonesia

Peru

India

11 High Forest Cover Countries

97.7 91.8 90.6 89.4 88.9 87.6 84.5 83.3 80 77.6 76.7

020406080

100120

Surina

m

Frenc

h G

uiana

Micr

ones

ia

Amer

icam

Sam

oa

Seych

elles

Palau

Gabon

Pitcair

ns

Turks

and

Caic

os Is

land

s

Solom

on Is

lands

Guyan

ae

Based on Policy Approaches and Practices

HFLD, LFLDCN, SMF

IFC+CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD

GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS

CONSTANT STOCKS

CHANGING STOCKS

INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL

HFLD: High Forest cover Low deforestationLFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestationIFC: Increase in forest coverCN: Forest ConservationSMF: Sustainable Management of Forests

HFHD: High Forest cover High DeforestationLFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation

State of Forest Carbon Stocks A fn of

CONSTANT STOCKScs

DECREMENTAL STOCKSDS

INCREMENTAL STOCKSIS

CO2

c

Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF

Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD

BaseLine

Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS

Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS

Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS

All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks

Comprehensive approach

All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks

C

C

• Advocate for a comprehensive approach• Ensure that progress on methodological and

policy fronts for all policy approaches proceeds simultaneously, derailing of any element that contributes in maintaining global integrity of forest c stocks (CN also) to be opposed

Strategy

Clarity on REDD/REDD-plus- main or a co-benefit? State managed forests- main benefit Community/jointly managed forests- co-

benefit (bonus with other goods and services)

Biodiversity conservation Safeguarding rights of local people and

benefit sharing (UNFCCC- indigenous peoples and local communities)

Points of Concern

Projected trend in forest cover under the current trend scenario

(Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8019

87

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

Year

Fo

rest

Co

ver

(Mh

a)

Projected Afforestation under current trend scenario

(Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1951

1961

1970

1979

1986

1992

1997

2000

2002

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Year

Cum

ulat

ive

Are

a A

ffore

sted

(Mha

)

Model based projection of carbon stocks in India’s forests and tree cover, as per studies of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (2006), estimates increase in carbon stocks as contained in the country’s forests from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC in 2030

Carbon Stock Projection: Indian Scenario

Compensation Claim: India

Proposed policy approach of Compensated Conservation seeks incentive for

1. Incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between 2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)

2. Baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006

Compensated Reduction

Compensated Conservation

Project

Project

BAU

BAU

Baseline

Time

Carb

on S

tore

d/Sa

ved

Issues at COP-12 on “Avoided Deforestation”

Baseline

Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India

ICFRE Study (August 2009)

Carbon 1995 2005 Incremental Changes

In Biomass 2692.474 2865.739 173.265In Soil 3552.304 3755.811 203.507Total 6244.778 6621.550 376.772

Figures in m tonnes

Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India

ICFRE Study (August 2009)Expansion and Conversion Factors

Mean biomass expansion factorRatio of BGB/AGBMean DensityRatio of OFFB/Tree BiomassMCDB in DWCarbon content in DW

Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India

ICFRE Study (August 2009)

Mean biomass expansion factor 1.575Ratio of BGB/AGB 0.266Mean Density 0.7116Ratio of OFFB/Tree Biomass 0.015MCDB in DW 20%Carbon content in DW 40%

Expansion and Conversion Factors

Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India

ICFRE Study (August 2009)

Mean biomass expansion factor

1.575 Chhabra, et al., 2002; Kaul, et al., 2009

Ratio of BGB/AGB 0.266 Chhabra, et al., 2002; Kaul, et al., 2009

Mean Density 0.7116 Brown, Gillespie and Lugo,1991; Rajput, et al., 1996; Kaul, et al., 2009

Ratio of OFFB/Tree Biomass

0.015 Ogawa, et al.,1965; Rai, 1981; Brown and Lugo, 1984

MCDB in DW 20% Leach and Gowen, 1987; Hall, et al., 1994; Ludwig, et al., 2003

Carbon content in DW

40% Bowen, 1979; Levine, 1996 ; Susott, et al., 1996; Ludwig , et al., 2003

Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India

ICFRE Study (August 2009)Item Factor 1995 2005

GS of Country in Mm3 -GS 5842.320 6218.282

Mean Biomass Expansion Factor- EF 1.575

Ratio (BGB/AGB)- RBA 0.266

AGB (Volume) – AGB = GSXEF 9201.654 9793.794

BGB (Volume) – BGB = AGBXRBA 2447.640 2605.149

Total Biomass (Volume) – TB = AGB+RBA 11649.294 12398.943

Mean Density – MD 0.7116

Biomass in mt = GSXMD 8289.638 8823.088

Ratio (Other Forest FB/TB 0.015

Total Forest Biomass in mt (Trees+Shrubs+Herbs) 8413.982 8955.434

Dry Weight in mt (80% of TFB) – DW 6731.186 7164.348

Carbon in mt (40% of DW) 2692.474 2865.739

Initiate regular estimation and monitoring of forest carbon stocks Biomass carbon Soil organic carbon

Supplement by regular estimation of ‘tree cover’ biomass carbon stocks

Possible Action by MoEF/SFDs

Document changes in Climatic parameters: temperature,

rainfall Vegetation Growth parameters of vegetation Hydrology Pest incidence Uncommon natural phenomenon

Possible Action by MoEF/SFDs

Institutionalize forest carbon accounting (FSI/SFDs) observed changes/shifts (ICFRE and

SFDs/SFRIs) Benefit sharing with local community

(MoEF/SFDs) Capacity building

To incorporate data in working plan in a special chapter on Climate Change

Possible Action by MoEF/SFDs

Is Positive REDD+ Outcome Possible?