knowledge q3 2014

Accelerating success.

Research & Forecast Report

Philippines 3Q 2014

Manufacturing, real estate lead economic expansionThe Philippine economy relied on a strong manufacturing sector to grow by 6.4% YoY in 2Q 2014. The real estate sector was also identified as a vital contributor, expanding by 8.9%, while exports sustained its double digit growth for the second straight quarter. In addition, domestic consumption remained strong despite higher inflation rates. To avoid any overheating, the government, through the Central Bank, has identified key measures to be implemented in the next six to nine months.

OfficeFive office buildings were delivered this quarter, 80% of which are located in Quezon City. By year end, an additional 200,000 sq m of office space will be delivered, meeting the forecast supply of 480,000 sq m. Real estate developers are optimistic, with close to 1 million sq m of office space slated for delivery in the next two years. Meanwhile, overall vacancy in the Makati CBD declined due to sustained strong office demand. As a result, office rents across all grades increased 2 - 3% this quarter.

ResidentialTwo new projects were completed in 3Q2014, adding in 1,297 units to inventory. An average of 9,000 units will be delivered in the next three years, with the majority of the units located in the Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center. Residential vacancy in the Makati CBD decreased drastically due to strong take-up across all grades and unit types. Despite high occupancy in the area, rental rates grew modestly in the period.

RetailApproximately 56,000 sq m of retail space was completed in the last six months, bringing the total retail stock in Metro Manila to 5.8 million sq m. An additional 167,000 sq m is slated for delivery by year-end. The two largest developers, SM Prime Holdings and Ayala Land, are expected to lead retail supply delivery until 2017, through their new and expansion projects. Vacancy in major malls increased but is expected to decline due to pre-commitments from local and foreign retailers.

Market Indicators

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL

RETAIL

2 Research & Forecast Report | 3Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Economy rebounds, grows by 6.4%The Philippine economy rallied in the second quarter, growing by 6.4%, as favorable economic conditions supported the manufacturing sector (+10.8%). The private sector contributed more to the growth as the Philippine Statistical Authority reported flat growth in government spending, from the 12.1% growth reported during the same period last year. Nonetheless, the country’s GDP growth was the highest in Southeast Asia, at par with Malaysia (6.4%), and ahead of Vietnam (5.3%), Indonesia (5.1%), Singapore (2.1%), and Thailand (0.4%).

The services sector also contributed to the growth story, particularly real estate, renting, and business activities (+8.9%), trade (+6.6%), and transport, storage and communications (+6.3%). Exports grew in double digits (+10.3%) for the second straight quarter, owing to exports of electronic components, articles of apparel, and services. In addition, domestic consumption expanded (+5.3%) despite the quarterly inflation rate (4.3%) reaching its highest level since 2Q 2011. Consumption continued to be driven by increasing OFW remittances (+5.8% YoY) and low lending rates (4.4 - 6.9%), despite the Central Bank’s move to raise its policy rates by 50 basis points in a span of three months. The adjustments were made to curb possible upticks in prices across all goods and services, with the aim of managing inflationary expectations in the next two years.

The government, through the Central Bank, has been more involved in crafting preemptive measures to avoid any overheating in the real estate market. In July, the Central Bank implemented the real estate stress test for commercial banks. The policy mandates commercial banks to provide adequate capital requirements, in light of increasing exposures to real estate loans. This ensures the capability of the banks in absorbing risks in the event of a shock in their real estate exposures. Lastly, the Bank is slated to release its real estate price index by 2015, in an effort to avoid possible asset bubbles by monitoring real estate prices.

Economic Growth Indicators

Economic Indicators2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14

Gross National Product 6.10 6.00 6.50 8.40 3.20 6.40 7.50 7.20 7.30

Gross Domestic Producta 6.60 4.20 1.10 7.60 3.90 6.80 7.20 5.60 6.40

Personal Consumption Expenditure

4.60 3.70 2.30 3.40 6.10 6.60 5.70 5.90 5.30

Gov’t. Expenditure 6.90 0.30 10.90 4.00 1.00 15.50 7.70 1.90 0.00

Capital Formation (0.50) 23.40 (8.70) 31.60 8.10 (5.30) 29.90 9.50 (2.40)

Exports 6.70 (2.70) (7.80) 21.00 (4.20) 8.50 (1.10) 13.50 10.30

Imports 1.70 1.60 (8.10) 22.50 0.20 4.90 5.40 10.10 1.40

AHFFb 4.70 3.20 (0.70) (0.20) 2.70 2.80 1.10 0.90 3.60

Industry 5.80 4.80 (1.90) 11.60 2.30 7.30 9.30 5.30 7.80

Services 7.60 4.00 3.40 7.20 5.10 7.40 7.20 6.80 6.00

Average Inflationc 2.90 8.30 4.10 3.90 4.60 3.20 3.00 4.10 4.30

Budget Deficit (PHP billion) (12.40) (68.10) (298.50) (314.40) (197.70) (242.80) (164.10) (84.10) 30.10

PHP:US$ (Average) 46.10 44.70 47.60 45.10 43.31 42.09 42.45 44.87 44.12

Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates (%) 3.40 5.20 4.00 3.70 1.37 1.58 0.32 1.05 1.27

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Bureau of Treasury a at constant 2000 pricesbAgriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing

c at constant 2006 prices

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

OFW Remittancesa

a as of August 2014


Land values reach peak after record transactionsLand values have now, after 17 years, exceeded their previous 1997 peak. The Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), sold its two lots in Fort Bonifacio, with land areas of 1,600 sq m each, to Focus Palantir, Inc. and Goldenwill, Inc. The former won the bidding for the first lot with a price of PHP500,000 per sq m while the latter won the second lot for PHP458,000 per sq m. Meanwhile, Ayala Land, Inc. bought the abandoned JAKA Tower in the Makati CBD for an undisclosed sum, the price range of which was speculated to be between PHP500,000 and PHP560,000 per sq m. As a result, average prices in the Makati CBD and Fort Bonifacio appreciated by 18.7 and 38.2%, respectively. On the other hand, Ortigas Center land values grew by 3.1% QoQ to PHP154,000 per sq m.

Land values are estimated to grow between 6.5 and 8.5% in the next 12 months, citing lack of available land assets while investors and developers continue to scout in these areas.

Residential licenses record flat growth; Mid-income housing improvesTotal licenses to sell issued by the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board amounted to 256,410 units from January to August 2014, 47.9% higher than the same period last year. The surge in licenses was brought about by the 200% increase in memorial park applications, which saw a resurgence after a year of stagnant growth. A strong industrial sector also led to an 87.0% increase in industrial subdivisions. Meanwhile, the number of residential licenses applied for was virtually stable during the period, growing by a meager 0.3%. Out of the four segments, only Mid-Income housing improved markedly. High-rise residential applications increased slightly by 4.4%, to 51,260 units.

Comparative Land Values (Php / sqm)LOCATION 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 3Q 2015 F % CHANGE (YoY)

Makati CBD 340,085 - 392,765 310,000 - 560,000 18.71 373,440 - 599,650 7.52

Ortigas Center 113,570 - 185,160 118,000 - 190,000 3.10 127,725 - 201,165 6.78

Fort Bonifacio 220,070 - 322,510 250,000 - 500,000 38.23 260,150 - 547,610 7.70

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Land Values


HLURB Licenses

Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

HLURB Licenses to SellSEGMENT JAN - AUG '13 JAN - AUG '14 % CHANGE YoY

Socialized Housing 28,184 26,845 -4.8

Low Cost Housing 36,657 34,007 -7.2

Mid Income Housing 16,445 18,702 13.7

High Rise Residential 49,108 51,260 4.4

Commercial Condominium 1,458 1,732 18.8

Farm Lot

Memorial Park 41,106 23,446 200.3

Industrial Subdivision 108 202 87.0

Commercial Subdivision 262 216 -17.6

Total (Philippines) 173,328 256,410 47.9

Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


OfficeOffice supply remains on target, to reach 480,000 sq m by year endFive office buildings amounting to 68,000 sq m were completed in 3Q 2014, four of which are located in Quezon City. These are Fairview Terraces BPO Office (8,300 sq m), UP Ayala Technohub Buildings N and O (19,300 sq m) by Ayala Land, Inc., and Spark Place (20,800 sq m) by Greenasia Resources Corporation. Panorama Tower in Fort Bonifacio (15,900 sq m) by Panorama Development Corporation was the lone building completed outside of Quezon City. Close to 280,000 sq m of office space has already been delivered this year, with an additional 200,000 sqm slated for completion in 4Q 2014.

Real estate developers remain bullish due to strong demand from both BPO and traditional office takers. Colliers revised its 2016 supply forecast to include recent project announcements by Federal Land, Filinvest, and Megaworld. The first two companies will construct BPO offices in Pasay City along Diosdado Macapagal Avenue, while the latter plans to build offices in Newport City and Las Pinas City. With the recent announcement of Tholons, a global outsourcing advisory firm, that the BPO industry can become a USD48 billion industry by 2020, the outlook of the market in the medium term is expected to be positive. For the next five years, an average of 420,000 sq m of office space is expected to be introduced every year primarily to address the requirements of the BPO industry.

Makati CBD sustains strong office demand despite limited spaceContinued strong demand for office space reduced the overall vacancy rate in the Makati CBD to 1.9%. All office grades experienced a decline, with Premium increasing its occupancy to 99.8%, as the last remaining spaces in Zuellig Building amounting to 1,000 sq m were finally taken up. Grade B office space remains preferred in the area as it reached its lowest vacancy since 1997, at 0.7%. On the other hand, the ongoing unavailability of Alphaland Makati Tower is responsible for Grade A vacancy of 6.7%. Colliers predicts that overall vacancy in the next twelve months will decline further to 1.6%, similar to the pre-Asian financial crisis levels.

Forecast New Office Supply (Net Usable Area)LOCATION END OF 2013* 2014F 2015F 2016F TOTAL

Makati CBD 2,827,865 22,802 - - 2,850,668

Ortigas 1,160,350 125,999 75,072 17,378 1,378,799

Fort Bonifacio 929,810 69,529 133,050 250,783 1,383,172

Eastwood 300,264 - - - 300,264

Alabang 305,707 75,956 - 16,200 397,863

Other Locations** 1,027,220 187,702 268,486 280,453 1,763,861

Total 6,551,217 481,988 476,608 564,814 8,074,627

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research* revised figures

** Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Quezon City and other fringe locations

Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock


Makati CBD Comparative Office Vacancy Rates (%)2Q 2014 3Q 2014 3Q 2015F

Premium 0.56 0.21 0.11

Grade A 6.79 6.74 5.92

Grade B & Below 1.01 0.74 0.60

All Grades 2.14 1.90 1.62



Office rents record slower growthRental rates in the Makati CBD continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. Premium office rates ranged between PHP970 and 1,280 per month, increasing by 2.3% QoQ, as a result of the transactions made in Zuellig Building and Tower One and Exchange Plaza. Average rates in Grade A offices stood at PHP840 per sq m per month. Meanwhile, a scarcity of Grade B offices caused a 2.9% QoQ increase in rents, averaging PHP633 per sq m per month. Rents are forecast to grow between 6.5 and 8.5% by next year due to sustained strong demand amid limited availability of office space in the area.

Capital values accelerateCapital values benefitted from a surge in land values this quarter. Premium office space yielded an average price of PHP149,305 per sq m, a 2.1% growth compared to the previous quarter. Grade A office space ranged between PHP80,240 and 112,420 per sq m, increasing by 2.6% QoQ, while average Grade B capital values accelerated by 3.6% QoQ, to PHP69,000 per sq m. Colliers forecasts that the effects of land value increases in the area will continue to affect capital values until next year, and are expected to grow between 6.8 and 8.5%.

Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand


Comparative Rental Rates (Php/sq m/month)

Makati CBD (based on net usable area)GRADE 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 3Q 2015F % CHANGE (YoY)

Premium 930 - 1,270 970 - 1,280 2.27 1,030 - 1,370 6.60

Grade A 650 - 985 685 - 995 2.75 725 - 1,070 6.70

Grade B 515 - 715 530 - 735 2.85 515 - 800 8.09


Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchComparative Office Capital Values (Php / sq m)

Makati CBD (based on net usable area)GRADE 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 3Q 2015F % CHANGE (YoY)

Premium 141,680 - 150,885 144,335 - 154,280 2.07 153,495 - 166,830 7.27

Grade A 77,995 - 109,820 80,240 - 112,420 2.58 84,995 - 120,735 6.78

Grade B 55,800 - 77,390 58,000 - 80,000 3.61 62,045 - 87,190 8.14


Makati CBD Office Capital Values



ResidentialSupply influx causes shift in strategyDelays in construction reduced the number of units expected to be delivered this year by 28.4%, from 7,746 to 5,546 units. Despite this, two projects were completed this quarter, adding 1,297 units in inventory. These were 8 Forbestown Road in Fort Bonifacio (537 units) and Twin Oaks Place West Tower (760 units) in Ortigas Center. An additional 2,038 units are expected for delivery by the end of the year.

From 2015 to 2017, an average of 9,000 units will be turned over in the five major locations that Colliers monitors. After numerous project launches since 2011, developers have switched to a more conservative stance in introducing new projects in these locations. Apart from decreasing availability of land options, the influx of supply expected in the next few years induced a more selective atmosphere for developers when timing becomes more important to avoid saturation in the market.

Forecast Residential New SupplyLOCATION END-2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F TOTAL

Makati CBD 17,656 454 4,608 2,017 1,485 26,220

Rockwell 3,718 441 - - 346 4,505

Fort Bonifacio 17,585 2,222 5,125 4,895 2,979 32,806

Ortigas 11,921 1,711 2,756 1,227 573 18,188

Eastwood 6,830 718 - 988 - 8,536

Total 57,710 5,546 12,489 9,127 5,383 90,255

Makati CBD Residential Vacancy


Makati CBD occupancy surges to 8.1%Overall residential vacancy in the Makati CBD declined by 250 basis points, reaching 8.1%. This was attributed to strong take-up in Grade A and Grade B projects, with occupancy increasing by 2.7% in this quarter alone. Premium residential vacancy also fell, posting a vacancy rate of 4.5%, 90 basis points lower than the previous quarter. Due to vibrant leasing activities in the area, the number of units available for sale drastically decreased during the period, signifying that owners decided to hold onto their units and made them available in the leasing market to realize yield potentials. The decline is only temporary, as Colliers forecasts a 2.6% jump in overall vacancy, from 8.1 to 10.7%, as close to 3,100 units are slated for delivery in the next twelve months.

Makati CBD Residential Stock



Makati CBD Comparative Residential Vacancy Rates (%)2Q 2014 3Q 2014 3Q 2015F

Luxury 5.25 4.54

Others 11.26 8.55

All Grades 10.60 8.10 10.71

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research * revised figures


Residential rents retain stable growthResidential rents in the Makati CBD saw quarterly growth of 1.1%; averaging PHP829 per sq m per month. This translates to an average monthly rent of PHP207,250 for a 250 sq m unit. Similar growth trends were observed in Rockwell and Fort Bonifacio. In Rockwell, residential rents ranged between PHP745 and 1,040 per sq m per month, increasing by 1.0% in 3Q 2014, while Fort Bonifacio posted the highest growth at 1.2%, resulting in an average rent of PHP834 per sq m per month. Colliers predicts rental growth in the three locations to be between 4.0 and 6.0% by next year, with Fort Bonifacio rents edging the Makati CBD rents by a few pesos.

Makati CBD, Rockwell, Fort Bonifacio Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents


Metro Manila Residential Condominium

Comparative Luxury 3BR Rental Rates (PHP / sq m / month)LOCATION 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 3Q 2015F %CHANGE (YoY)

Makati CBD 560 - 1,080 570 - 1,090 1.10 590 - 1,150 4.98

Rockwell 740 - 1,030 745 - 1,040 1.02 790 - 1,090 5.14

Fort Bonifacio 625 - 1,025 630 - 1,035 1.15 660 - 1,090 4.78


Makati CBD Comparative Residential Lease Rates for Exclusive Villages (Php / month)

3BR - 4BR, Unfurnished to Semi-FurnishedVILLAGE LOW HIGH

Forbes Park 275,000 550,000

Dasmarinas Village 250,000 450,000

Urdaneta Village 200,000 450,000

Bel-air Village 130,000 300,000

San Lorenzo Village 100,000 280,000

Magallanes Village 100,000 200,000

Ayala Alabang Village 75,000 250,000



Metro Manila Residential Condominium

Comparative Luxury 3BR Capital Values (PHP / sqm)LOCATION 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 3Q 2015F % CHANGE (YoY)

Makati CBD 93,000 - 183,165 98,000 - 187,500 3.38 102,995 - 198,545 5.62

Rockwell 111,345 - 172,070 115,000 - 178,500 3.56 121,575 - 187,780 5.40

Fort Bonifacio 104,400 - 165,465 108,000 - 170,000 3.01 113,500 - 181,320 6.05


Capital values appreciate faster than rentsResidential capital value growth in premium locations accelerated due to rising land values. Values in the Makati CBD range between PHP98,000 and 187,500 per sq m, appreciating by 3.4% from the previous quarter. Rockwell experienced a similar increase, at 3.6% to PHP146,500 per sq m. Average values in Fort Bonifacio amounted to PHP139,000 per sq m, growing by 3.0% QoQ. Colliers expects capital values to grow faster than rents, between 5.0 and 7.0%, by next year as the current land values will cause adjustments in the values.

Capital Values


Comparative Residential Lease Rates (High-Rise)

3BR, Semi Furnished to Fully FurnishedLOCATION MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUM

Apartment Ridge/Roxas Triangle

Rental Range (Php/month) 140,000 190,000 280,000

Average Size (sq m) 210 285 330

Salcedo Village Rental Range (Php/month) 120,000 140,000 160,000


Legaspi Village Rental Range (Php/month) 125,000 205,000 250,000


Rockwell Rental Range (Php/month) 120,000 170,000 280,000


Fort Bonifacio Rental Range (Php/month) 100,000 160,000 260,000




RetailSM, Ayala lead retail supply delivery until 2017Metro Manila retail stock reached 5.8 million sq m, increasing by close to 56,000 sq m due to three projects that were completed in the last six months. Among the projects delivered were Bonifacio Central Square (25,400 sq m) and Starmall Prima (20,600 sq m) in Taguig City, and Spark Place Retail (10,000 sq m) in Quezon City. Retail supply is expected to reach 413,000 sq m this year, with 60% already delivered as of 3Q 2014. If no delays are encountered, 2014 will be the year with the highest area of retail space delivered since 2006.

Major developers are pursuing construction of more retail spaces in Metro Manila due to increasing affluence of the typical Filipino consumer amid the entrance of more retail brands in the country. Close to 645,000 sq m of retail space is expected to be delivered from 2015 to 2017, with SM Prime Holdings, Inc., (SMPH) and Ayala Land delivering 72% of the retail supply.

Ayala Land is at the forefront of retail space delivery in the next three years, as they target to complete 241,000 sq m of retail space in their mixed-use developments. A majority of their projects will follow a district center format, with the aim of priming the location by attracting foot traffic. The bulk of the delivery will be in 2017, when Circuit Mall (57,000 sq m), Vertis Mall (47,000 sq m), BGC West Block Retail (24,000 sq m), and Circuit Lane (10,000 sq m) will be completed. Not to be left behind is SMPH, with close to 225,000 sq m of retail space expected for delivery. They recently announced the expansion of the Mall of Asia complex will add 200,000 sq m of retail space. Once completed in 2016, the Mall of Asia will be among the three largest malls in the world. The company also plans to construct its first mall in North Caloocan, bringing 25,000 sq m of retail space to the area.

Retail Stock

Metro Manila CLASSIFICATION 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 3Q 2015F % CHANGE (YoY)

Super Regional 3,657,635 3,657,635 0.00 3,714,635 1.56

Regional 934,983 934,983 0.00 1,014,983 8.56

District/Neighborhood 1,180,218 1,200,843 1.75 1,321,860 10.08

All Levels 5,772,836 5,793,461 0.36 6,051,478 4.45


Renovations force increase in retail vacancyVacancy rates in both super regional and regional malls increased to 2.6% in 3Q 2014, with a 97.4% occupancy rate from the 98.0% recorded in the previous quarter. Renovation activities were still ongoing in the majority of the malls surveyed, thereby forcing an increase in vacancy.

A notable observation is that some of the spaces undergoing renovation already have pre-committed tenants. Of the observed vacancies, 60% of the spaces have been taken up by tenants belonging to the food and apparel sectors who plan to open in the next six to nine months. Colliers forecasts that while vacancy in existing malls will decrease in the short term, the influx of new supply will force an artificial increase in the retail market.

Metro Manila

Comparative Retail Vacancy Rates (%)2Q2014 3Q2014

Super Regional 1.92 2.43

Regional 2.51 3.14



Retail rents experience stable growthRental rates in Ayala Center grew by 1.3% QoQ to an average of PHP1,385 per sq m per month. Meanwhile, rates in Ortigas Center accelerated by 1.9% QoQ, amounting to an average rent of PHP1,195 per sq m per month. Rental rates are projected to grow between 5.0 and 7.0% in the next twelve months.



Ortigas Monthly Rents

01%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

2011

Spending Indicators


Strong consumption induces greater food optionsHigher prices brought about by a 4.4% inflation rate during the second quarter did not deter consumer spending, which expanded by 5.3%. Expenditures for basic necessities such as food and housing comprised 53% of spending. Expenditures for restaurants and hotels, however, surged during the period, growing by 10.4% compared to the same period last year. This coincides with a recent report from Nielsen, a global information and insights company, that more Filipino consumers prefer dining out due to increasingly fast-paced lifestyles. Meanwhile, consumer expectations for the next twelve months are upbeat, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank, due to higher prospects in job security and more investments in the country.

Makati Monthly Rents

Author:Romeo ArahanResearch Analyst | Philippines+63 2 888 [email protected]

Contributors:Julius GuevaraDirector | Research & [email protected]

David A. YoungManaging Director | [email protected]

Copyright © 2014 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Colliers International Philippines10F Tower 2 RCBC PlazaAyala Ave. cor. Sen. Gil Puyat Ave. Philippines

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