kordsa global · global automotive market global lv assembly – m units / year 2015-2020e ... lean...

18
Strictly confidential 2016 H1 / Earnings Presentation KordSA Global

Upload: others

Post on 31-Jul-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

Strictly confidential

2016 H1 / Earnings Presentation

KordSA Global

Keep

Page 2: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

2

Disclaimer

Keep

The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by Kordsa Global Endüstriyel İplik ve Kord Bezi Sanayi ve

Ticaret Anonim Şirketi (the “Company”) from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty,

expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. No undue reliance may be placed for any purposes

whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. This document contains

forward-looking statements by using such words as "may", "will", "expect", "believe", "plan" and other similar terminology that reflect

the Company management’s current views, expectations, assumptions and forecasts with respect to certain future events. As the actual

performance of the companies may be affected by risks and uncertainties, all opinions, information and estimates contained in this

document constitute the Company’s current judgment and are subject to change, update, amend, supplement or otherwise alter without

notice. Although it is believed that the information and analysis are correct and expectations reflected in this document are reasonable,

they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

The Company does not undertake any obligation, and disclaims any duty to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as

a result of new information or future events. Neither this document nor the information contained within can construe any investment

advice, invitation or an offer to buy or sell the Company and/or Its group companies’ shares. The Company cannot guarantee that the

securities described in this document constitute a suitable investment for all investors and nothing shall be taken as an inducement to

any person to invest in or otherwise deal with any shares of the Company and its group companies. The information contained in this

document is published for the assistance of recipients, but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the

exercise of judgment by any recipient. You must not distribute the information in this document to, or cause it to be used by, any person

or entity in a place where its distribution or use would be unlawful. Neither the Company, its board of directors, directors, managers, nor

any of Its employees shall have any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its

contents.

Page 3: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

Global Automotive Market

Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year

2015-2020E CAGR: 3,9%

Global Tire Market

Global LV Tire Sales – M Units / Year

US anti-dumping & anti-subsidy duties on Chinese LV tires have global impact. Chinese tire production is declining.

Declines in key developing countires, strong growth in Europe and NA

60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70%

3

2015-2020E CAGR: 3,6%

Source: PWC Autofacts

Source: LMC Tyre Forecast

• Brazil and Russia continue on downward slide, while China is profiting from positive YoY comparison, moving it towards 8% growth rate

• LV sales were up through the first half of 2016 in EU (9,4%) and US (1,3%)

• Key trends into the future: strategic partnerships

on autonomous vehicle technology and new mobility models

• OE (2%) and replacement market (3%) grew in

the first half of 2016

• In OE; H1 markets boosted by Asian imports in mature zones and growth in China and India. No signs of recovery in South America, Russia

• Replacement tire sales in emerging markets are growing slower than expected

• Dynamic demand in Western Europe and in North America driven by imports

88 92 95 99 104 107

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Ap exc China China EMEA NA SA

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EAP exc. China China EMEA NA SA

1543 1592 1650 1722 1786 1844

Market Dynamics

Page 4: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

Tire Reinforcement Market (PET HMLS)

Passenger & LV tire driven growth

Tire Reinforcement Market (NY6.6)

Cap-ply grows, Agro & Mining Tires demand is low

60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70%

4

Nylon 6.6

Cap-ply demand grows as LV tire market grows

Slower growth in China

Low demand is expected to continue in mining & large agro tires

PET HMLS

Demand grows parallel to LV production Increasing PET HMLS penetration to Agro tires in USA

and EU

2015-2020 CAGR: +4.3%

2015-2020 CAGR: +2.8%

Source: Company Estimates

Source: Company Estimates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ESupply Demand

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Supply Demand

Market Dynamics

Page 5: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

5

Keep

1. Operating Excellence

a. Continuing Cost Reduction Programs

• Raw material diversification and improvement for best yields

• Creep capex driving energy & labor efficient production

• TPM (total productive maintenence) initiatives at all locations

b. Lean Kordsa Global

• High capacity utilization & growth at large entities

2. Profitable Growth in Tire Industry

a. Segmental focus in meeting different customer needs

• provide better cost of use and value extraction for customer (product development, technical support,

service level, commercial flexibility)

b. Offer more value added products (fabric vs yarn mix)

c. Increase new product sales including improved generations of tire products and non tire applications

d. Further investment in PET HMLS for new generation yarns

3. Profitable Growth in Adjacent Industries

a. Composites Excellence Center start up => ramp up in 2016 yields in 2017 onwards

b. Construction Reinforcement Business => new application areas

Focus on tire industry for profitable growth, selectively grow adjacencies

What we have been doing in H1-2016

Page 6: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

6

50%

57% 60%

66%

13% 12% 12% 11%

6% 5% 6% 5%

31%

26%

22%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2013 2014 2015 2016 - H1

Global Players Regional Players Emerging Players Others

Segmental Progress

Page 7: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

7

Keep

Regional Revenue Split Progress

36.1%

28.0%

22.3%

13.7%

38.6%

29.5%

17.4%

14.5%

36.9%

28.1%

20.8%

14.2%

EMEA APAC NA SA

2014 2015 2016 - H1

Page 8: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

8

2016 Revenue Split Progress

66% 74% 75%

21% 18% 21%

6% 8% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2014 2015 2016

TCF NY Yarn Other

Page 9: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

9

10

28

41

52 53

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Revenue From NewProducts (US$m)

Strong Focus on R&D

Page 10: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

10

Keep

In MMTL 2015 H1 2016 H1 Change

Net Sales 828 960 16%

Gross Profit 134 200 49%

Gross Profit % 16% 21% +5 pts

Operating Profit 69 125 81%

Operating Profit % 8% 13% +5 pts

EBITDA 101 154 52%

EBITDA % 12.2% 16.0% +4 pts

Net Income 48 101 111%

2016 H1 Key Financials

Page 11: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

11

Keep

Operating Profit Evolution 2015 H1 vs 2016 H1 (MTL)

69

64

125

(46)

1

16

20

Page 12: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

12

Keep

2016 H1 Balance Sheet – selected items

In MMTL Dec 31, 2015 Jun 30, 2016 Change

Cash and Cash Equivalents

18 40

(22)

Account Receivable

297 355

(58)

Other Current Assets

109 102

7

Inventories

425 468

(43)

Accounts Payable

(172) (243)

71

Oth. Curr. Liab. (Excl. Borrowings)

(50) (73)

23

WCAP Turnover

3.2 3.5

Total Debt

554 551

4

Net Debt

537 510

26

Short Term

342 351

(8)

Long Term

194 160

34

Page 13: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

13

Keep

2016 H1 Free Cash Flow

In MMTL June 30,

2015

June 30, 2016

Change

EBIT*(1-t) 58 109 51

Depreciation and Amortization 40 39 1

Change in Working Capital (65) (15) 50

Cash Used in Investing Activities (25) (72) (47)

Free Cash Flow** 9 62 53

* FCF: EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital - Capital Expenditure

Page 14: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

14

Keep

Kordsa distributes all the distributable income subject to

Gen Assembly approval. Basis of distribution is the lower of

the Turkish solo tax books or consolidated TFRS net income.

32

76

35

-

68

61

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

In MMTL

Dividend Distribution

Page 15: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

15

Guidance

Jun'2016

Revenue Growth (TRL) %10 - %15

Ebitda Growth (TRL) %20-%30

Raw Material

NY -------> Highly correlated with

Butadiene, Benzene, Propylene

Pet -------> Highly correlated with PTA, MEG

Recurring Creep Capex 23 M$

*EBITDA Calculation = Operating Profit - [Dep&Amort] - [A]* - [B]** [A]* : FX Gain/Loss on trade Rec. & Pay. [B]** Unearned finance inc/exp on credit sales

Page 16: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

16

APPENDIX

Keep

Page 17: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

RM Price Drivers

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

NY Raw Material Trend

BZ BD PP OIL

Forecast

Page 18: KordSA Global · Global Automotive Market Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2015-2020E ... Lean Kordsa Global • High capacity utilization & growth at large ... Change in Net

RM Price Drivers

6

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Polyester Raw Material Trend, PTA

PTA NEA CFR Contract $/ton PTA NEA C&R Spot $/ton PTA Deliv.WE Contract €/ton

, Forecast

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Polyester Raw Material Trend, MEG

MEG CFR AP Contract $/ton MEG CFR NEA Spot $/ton MEG Deliv.WE Contract €/ton

Forecast