korea energy demand outlook (volume 18, no.3)

Volume 18, No. 3

ISSN 2093-7199

KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

Fall / 2016

KEEI Korea Energy Demand Outlook

KEEI VIEW OF ENERGY DEMAND

Published by the Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI), Energy Demand Outlook takes a closer look at the global energy market and supply and demand trends in domestic energy and examines the outlook for short-term energy demand.

This report outlines the recent changes in the supply and demand of energy and provides important data and policy implications in an effort to contribute to the establishment and adjustment of a series of energy policies by the government.

This report is written by the Energy Demand and Supply Division of the Center for Energy Information and Statistics in cooperation with the Energy Statistics Research Division of KEEI and other related research divisions.

Cherl-Hyun Kim (Electricity) wrote the report with the participation and support of Seungmoon Lee (Oil), Byunguk Kang (Coal and Gas), SungJae Lee (Heat and Renewables), Sungeun Kim, and Bora Nam. Also, the report was reviewed carefully by Soo-il Kim, Gwang-su Park, and Yoon-young Kang.

If you have any further inquiries, please send an email to [email protected] or call +82-52-714-2102.

Summary

Energy Demand Outlook, Fall Issue, 2016 3

Summary

Energy consumption trends

□ In H1 2016, Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) is estimated to have climbed 2.0% Year on

Year (YoY) to 145.2 Mtoe

o Despite a decline in coal consumption, TPES increased on a rise in both oil and nuclear power

consumption.

o Consumption of energy for feedstock (including non-energy oil and coking coal for steel-making) fell

2.0% YoY, as naphtha consumption growth slowed and consumption of coking coal for steel-making

plunged.

□ Consumption growth for all energy sources rose YoY except for coal

o Oil (6.7%) Naphtha consumption slowed due to dissipation of the effects of benzene and para-xylene

capacity additions in 2014 as well as partial replacement naphtha with propane. However, oil

consumption growth accelerated, as LPG consumption spiked, aided by expansion of propylene

capacity in August 2015 and rising consumption of fuel oil for transport on sliding oil prices.

o Coal (-7.5%) Amid the continued downturn in the steel industry, consumption of coking coal for steel-

making plummeted 10.2%. Also, with the downward revision of maximum power generation output for

coal-fired generators in January 2016, coal-fired power generation declined, pushing down consumption

of coal for power generation by 6.1%. As a result, the growth rate of the overall use of coal was more

than 10% p lower YoY.

o Gas (-0.4%) The rate of sharp decline in gas consumption for power generation decelerated thanks to

reduced generation of coal-fired power. Consumption of city gas also picked up, boosted by price cuts

in accordance with the material costs linkage system. Accordingly, the pace of decline in total gas

consumption slowed markedly.

o Nuclear (10.1%) Nuclear power generation grew at a sharp pace of over 10% for two quarters in a row,

as reactor unit 1 at Wolsong Nuclear Power Plant (PP) received approval for a 10-year life extension in

June 2015 and Wolsong’s reactor unit 2 launched in July 2015. The growth rate for H1 2016 increased

more than 9% p YoY.

o Electricity (1.7%) Consumption of commercial electricity grew by over 3% on the back of sound

growth in service industries compared to manufacturing, but industrial consumption grew less than 1%


4 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

due to continued lackluster production activities in the manufacturing industry, restricting the recovery

of overall electricity consumption.

□ In H1 2016, Total Final Consumption (TFC) jumped 2.2% YoY to 111.9 Mtoe

o Industry (1.4%) For energy for feedstock, consumption of coking coal for steel-making tumbled more

than 10%, and the growth of naphtha consumption continued to slow for the five consecutive quarter

until Q1 2016, before turning downward in Q2 2016. However, energy consumption for fuel swung to

growth, as consumption of LPG used to produce propylene soared thanks to the propane

dehydrogenation capacity additions in the petrochemical industry.

o Transport (5.0%) The growth of energy consumption for transport decelerated YoY on muted effects

of the oil price slump as well as high base effects. Nonetheless, amid continuing bearish oil prices,

growth was solid, thereby driving growth in TFC.

o Buildings (2.0%) The growth of energy consumption for buildings slowed, as the growth of electricity

consumption slowed due to the dissipation of low base effects and gas consumption swung to

contraction.

Energy demand outlook

□ In 2017, TPES and TFC are projected to rise 2.2% (to 297.9 Mtoe) and 2.3% (to 227.7 Mtoe),

respectively

o In 2016, TPES is projected to increase 1.9%, buoyed by an upturn in oil demand due to sliding oil

prices. In 2017, growth is forecast to pick up pace, as coal demand increases with the launch of new

large-scale bituminous coal-fired PPs.

o In 2016, TFC is expected to rise 2.1%, led by energy demand from the transport and buildings sectors

due to the impact of weak oil prices and an abnormal heat wave. In 2017, it is likely to continue to grow

at around 2% growth, as industrial energy demand, sluggish in the previous year, partially picks up on

the back of a rebound in exports.

□ Oil demand growth should slow; coal demand should rebound; growth of nuclear power

generation should remain on track; gas demand should plummet

o In 2016, oil demand is forecast to climb more than 6% on weak oil prices, but in 2017, growth should

fall to the 2% level on a moderate rise in oil prices.

Summary


o In 2016, coal demand should drop 6.0% due to sharp declines in demand for power generation and

steel-making. However, in 2017, it should bounce back nearly 6%, as demand for both power

generation and steel-making reverses its decline.

o Nuclear power generation should expand to the 6% level in 2016, and 7% level in 2017 as new nuclear

PPs come online.

o In 2016, gas demand is projected to recover, as the steep decline in demand for power generation slows

and demand for production and local heating rises. However, in 2017, gas demand should drop over 10%

due to demand tumbling again for power generation.

o In 2016, electricity demand growth should recover to about 2%, despite tepid industrial demand, due to

greater demand from buildings. But in 2017, growth should decline to a low- to mid-1% level, as

recovery of industrial demand remains fragile and demand from buildings slows.

Growth in demand for key energy sources

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

TPES 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.2

Coal 1.1 2.9 1.1 - 6.0 5.8

Oil - 0.3 - 0.5 4.2 6.3 2.3

Gas 4.8 - 9.2 - 8.7 0.3 - 11.3

Nuclear - 7.7 12.7 5.3 6.4 7.2

Electricity 1.8 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.3

□ In 2017, growth in industrial energy demand should partially recover, while demand growth

from the transport and buildings sectors should slow

o In 2016, industrial energy demand is expected to rise only 1.0%, despite stronger demand for fuel, due

to shrinking demand for feedstock. But in 2017, growth should partly recover to 2.8% on the back of a

rebound in demand for feedstock.

o In 2016, transport energy demand is estimated to soar nearly 5% on an oil price plunge. But in 2017,

growth should slip to about 2% on an oil price rise, slowing YoY.

o In 2016, building energy demand is projected to climb 2.7% due to the unusual summer heat wave. But

in 2017, the growth should skid to the 1% level, driven by a return to temperatures of previous 10- year

average and high base effects.



Key features and implications

□ In H1 2016, TPES picked up, aided by a surge in oil demand and nuclear power generation, but

at a limited pace due to weak consumption of coal

o TPES was driven up by oil and nuclear. Oil consumption across all sectors soared thanks to bearish oil

prices and capacity additions in the petrochemical industry, while nuclear power generation also rose at

a sharp rate with the entry of new nuclear PPs.

o Coal consumption, which had acted as a catalyst for TPES growth, became an impediment in H2 2015.

As the use for power generation and steel-making shrank further, this brought down TPES growth by

over 2.0%p in H1 2016.

□ Generation of nuclear and oil power has made up for the decline in coal-fired power generation,

reshaping the power generation mix and utilization rate of power generation facilities

o This year, coal-fired and nuclear power generation made up similar shares of the total, while the gap

between oil and gas power generation has narrowed significantly.

o Utilization rate of power generation facilities has tumbled of coal, while that of nuclear has sustained

growth and that of gas, while falling at a slower pace, has remained on a downward trend since 2014.

□ In 2017, increasing low efficiency coal-fired power generation should fuel growth in energy

demand for power generation

o With the planned entry of large-scale bituminous coal-fired PPs, coal demand for power generation is

projected to surge in 2017 after declining in 2016. This is likely to drive energy demand for power

generation throughout the year.

o Gas power generation, a kind of peak load power generation, and gas demand for power generation will

decline sharply, as the portion of base load power generation surges on a rapid rise in generation of

bituminous coal-fired and nuclear power.

o Growth in energy demand for power generation should rise YoY on a surge in low efficiency coal-fired

power generation, although the growth of total power generation will slow.

□ TPES portion ranking change for 2017: oil (1st), coal (2nd), nuclear (3rd), gas (4th)

o Gas demand, especially gas for power generation, is expected to plummet. As a result, gas as a

percentage of TPES should drop below that of nuclear power again in 11 years.

o Meanwhile, reliance on oil is projected to increase for two straight years on a sharp fall in oil prices,

reaching 40.1% in 2016. However, it is likely to stay at a similar level in 2017, as oil reverses its decline.

The Main Indicator and Energy Outlook Result



Main Economic and Energy Indicators

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Economy and Population

GDP (2010 trillion won) 1 380.8 694.7 732.2 1 427.0 710.7 753.6 1 464.2 732.2 770.9 1 503.1 1 543.7

Industrial Production(2010=100) 108.2 108.4 108.5 108.4 107.1 108.3 107.7 107.5 109.2 108.3 108.8

Crude Oil Price (Dubai, USD/bbl) 105.3 105.3 88.1 96.7 56.3 45.2 50.8 36.8 44.2 40.5 48.0

Working Days 274.5 133.5 138.0 271.5 135.5 138.5 274.0 133.5 139.5 273.0 272.5

Population (million) 50.2 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.8 50.8 50.8 51.0

Average Temperature (ºC) 12.5 10.9 15.8 13.4 10.4 16.8 13.6 10.2 16.7 13.5 12.9

Cooling Degree days 908.9 218.6 604.1 822.7 223.0 638.1 861.1 239.1 735.6 974.7 790.9

Heating Degree days 2 893.2 1 500.9 1 000.7 2 501.6 1 593.0 866.1 2 459.1 1 654.1 971.7 2 625.8 2 645.4

Energy Indicators

Total Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe) 280.2 140.9 141.9 282.9 142.3 143.8 286.1 145.2 146.3 291.5 297.9

Energy Intensity (toe/million won) 0.203 0.203 0.194 0.199 0.201 0.191 0.196 0.199 0.190 0.194 0.193

TPED/capita (toe/capita) 5.579 2.795 2.815 5.610 2.812 2.840 5.652 2.858 2.879 5.737 5.843

Electricity Generation (TWh) 517.7 257.8 264.2 522.0 260.6 267.5 528.1 262.0 274.9 536.9 544.1

Electricity Generation/capita (MWh/capita) 10.3 5.1 5.2 10.4 5.1 5.3 10.4 5.2 5.4 10.6 10.7

Electricity Demand/capita (MWh/capita) 9.5 4.8 4.7 9.5 4.8 4.7 9.6 4.9 4.8 9.7 9.8



Energy Demand

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 129.6 65.0 68.4 133.3 66.7 68.1 134.8 61.8 65.0 126.7 134.1

Oil (Mbbl) 825.2 404.6 416.8 821.5 417.5 438.7 856.2 445.6 464.8 910.4 931.2

Gas (Bm3) 40.3 19.4 17.3 36.6 18.2 15.2 33.4 18.2 15.4 33.5 29.8

Hydro (TWh) 8.4 3.6 4.2 7.8 2.8 3.0 5.8 2.9 3.3 6.2 6.4

Nuclear (TWh) 138.8 77.9 78.5 156.4 78.5 86.3 164.8 86.4 88.9 175.3 187.9

Other Renewables (Mtoe) 9.0 5.4 5.5 11.0 5.6 5.9 11.5 6.5 6.2 12.6 14.1

Total (Mtoe) 280.2 140.9 141.9 282.9 142.3 143.8 286.1 145.2 146.3 291.5 297.9

Coal 81.9 41.3 43.3 84.6 42.3 43.1 85.5 39.1 41.0 80.1 84.8

Oil 105.8 51.8 53.2 104.9 53.5 56.1 109.6 57.1 59.6 116.7 119.2

Gas 52.4 25.2 22.5 47.7 23.7 19.8 43.5 23.6 20.0 43.6 38.7

Nuclear 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4

Hydro 29.3 16.4 16.6 33.0 16.6 18.2 34.8 18.2 18.8 37.0 39.6

Other Renewables 9.0 5.4 5.5 11.0 5.6 5.9 11.5 6.5 6.2 12.6 14.1

Total Final Consumption

Coal (Mton) 49.5 26.2 26.8 53.1 25.6 26.7 52.3 23.1 25.1 48.2 48.5

Oil (Mbbl) 799.1 396.1 412.4 808.5 410.2 431.3 841.6 433.5 450.2 883.6 906.8

Gas (Bm3) 23.9 12.5 9.6 22.1 12.5 8.9 21.4 12.3 9.0 21.3 21.6

Electricity (TWh) 474.8 240.1 237.4 477.6 244.5 239.2 483.7 248.5 244.6 493.1 499.7

Heat (TWh) 1.7 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.7


Total (Mtoe) 210.2 107.4 106.3 213.8 109.5 108.5 218.1 111.9 110.7 222.5 227.7

Coal 32.7 17.6 17.8 35.4 17.1 17.8 34.9 15.5 16.7 32.1 32.3

Oil 101.8 50.4 52.5 103.0 52.4 55.0 107.3 55.2 57.4 112.6 115.5

Gas 25.3 13.2 10.2 23.3 13.2 9.4 22.6 13.0 9.5 22.5 22.8

Electricity 40.8 20.7 20.4 41.1 21.0 20.6 41.6 21.4 21.0 42.4 43.0

Heat 1.7 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.7


Industry 130.8 67.7 68.3 136.0 66.9 68.9 135.8 67.8 69.4 137.2 141.1

Transport 37.3 18.3 19.3 37.6 19.6 20.7 40.3 20.5 21.7 42.2 43.0

Buildings 42.0 21.4 18.7 40.1 23.0 18.9 42.0 23.5 19.6 43.1 43.5



Energy Demand

(yoy, %)

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 1.1 1.5 4.3 2.9 2.7 - 0.4 1.1 - 7.5 - 4.6 - 6.0 5.8

Oil (Mbbl) - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.7 - 0.5 3.2 5.2 4.2 6.7 6.0 6.3 2.3

Gas (Bm3) 4.8 - 9.8 - 8.4 - 9.2 - 5.8 - 12.0 - 8.7 - 0.4 1.1 0.3 - 11.3

Hydro (TWh) 9.7 - 8.3 - 5.6 - 6.8 - 22.3 - 29.0 - 25.9 2.2 10.7 6.5 4.4

Nuclear (TWh) - 7.7 14.3 11.2 12.7 0.7 9.9 5.3 10.1 3.0 6.4 7.2


Total (Mtoe) 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.2

Coal 1.2 2.0 4.5 3.3 2.4 - 0.3 1.0 - 7.5 - 4.9 - 6.2 5.8

Oil - 0.3 - 0.4 - 1.2 - 0.8 3.3 5.4 4.4 6.8 6.3 6.6 2.1

Gas 5.1 - 9.6 - 8.4 - 9.0 - 5.9 - 12.0 - 8.8 - 0.4 1.1 0.3 - 11.3

Nuclear 9.7 - 8.3 - 5.6 - 6.8 - 22.3 - 29.0 - 25.9 2.2 10.7 6.5 4.4

Hydro - 7.7 14.3 11.2 12.7 0.7 9.9 5.3 10.1 3.0 6.4 7.2


Total Final Consumption

Coal (Mton) 2.3 9.4 4.9 7.1 - 2.4 - 0.4 - 1.4 - 9.7 - 6.1 - 7.8 0.6

Oil (Mbbl) 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.2 3.6 4.6 4.1 5.7 4.4 5.0 2.6

Gas (Bm3) 0.5 - 10.3 - 3.7 - 7.5 0.1 - 7.6 - 3.3 - 1.5 1.1 - 0.4 1.3

Electricity (TWh) 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.8 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.4

Heat (TWh) - 3.2 - 14.0 3.2 - 7.6 6.1 - 9.7 - 0.5 8.1 4.4 6.7 3.2


Total (Mtoe) 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3

Coal 2.2 10.7 6.2 8.4 - 2.6 - 0.4 - 1.5 - 9.7 - 6.3 - 8.0 0.7

Oil 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 3.8 4.7 4.2 5.5 4.4 4.9 2.6

Gas - 0.3 - 10.6 - 3.9 - 7.8 0.5 - 7.4 - 2.9 - 1.5 1.0 - 0.4 1.3

Electricity 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.8 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.4

Heat - 3.2 - 14.0 3.2 - 7.6 6.1 - 9.7 - 0.5 8.1 4.4 6.7 3.2


Industry 2.0 5.2 2.8 4.0 - 1.2 0.9 - 0.2 1.4 0.7 1.1 2.8

Transport 0.5 0.2 1.3 0.8 6.9 7.2 7.1 5.0 4.6 4.8 1.9

Buildings - 1.6 - 8.6 0.7 - 4.5 7.7 1.0 4.6 2.0 3.5 2.7 1.0



Energy Demand by Sector

(Mtoe)

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Industry 130.8 67.7 68.3 136.0 66.9 68.9 135.8 67.8 69.4 137.2 141.1

Coal 31.8 17.3 17.4 34.7 16.9 17.3 34.2 15.2 16.3 31.5 31.8

Oil 60.1 30.2 31.0 61.2 30.3 31.9 62.2 32.1 33.3 65.4 67.6

Gas 10.3 4.9 4.5 9.3 4.2 3.8 8.0 4.1 3.7 7.8 7.9

Electricity 22.1 11.4 11.4 22.8 11.5 11.4 22.8 11.5 11.5 23.0 23.3

Heat - - - - - - - - - - -


Transport 37.3 18.3 19.3 37.6 19.6 20.7 40.3 20.5 21.7 42.2 43.0

Coal - - - - - - - - - - -

Oil 35.5 17.4 18.4 35.8 18.6 19.7 38.4 19.5 20.7 40.2 40.9

Gas 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3

Electricity 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Heat - - - - - - - - - - -


Buildings* 42.0 21.4 18.7 40.1 23.0 18.9 42.0 23.5 19.6 43.1 43.5

Coal 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5

Oil 6.2 2.9 3.1 6.0 3.4 3.3 6.8 3.6 3.5 7.0 6.9

Gas 13.7 7.7 5.0 12.7 8.4 4.9 13.4 8.3 5.1 13.5 13.6

Electricity 18.6 9.2 8.9 18.1 9.5 9.1 18.6 9.7 9.4 19.2 19.5

Heat 1.7 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.7


Transform 137.8 68.2 66.8 135.1 68.0 65.8 133.8 68.7 66.7 135.5 137.6

Coal 49.2 23.7 25.5 49.2 25.2 25.4 50.6 23.7 24.4 48.0 52.5

Oil 4.0 1.3 0.7 2.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 1.9 2.2 4.1 3.7

Gas 52.4 25.3 22.5 47.7 23.7 19.8 43.5 23.6 20.0 43.6 38.6

Nuclear 29.3 16.4 16.6 33.0 16.6 18.2 34.8 18.2 18.8 37.0 39.6

Hydro 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4

Renewables 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.8

* include residential, commercial, public∙etc usage



Coal

(Mton)

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Total Coal Demand 129.6 65.0 68.4 133.3 66.7 68.1 134.8 61.8 65.0 126.7 134.1

Transform 80.0 38.7 41.5 80.3 41.1 41.4 82.5 38.6 39.9 78.5 85.6

Power Generation 80.0 38.7 41.5 80.3 41.1 41.4 82.5 38.6 39.9 78.5 85.6

Heat - - - - - - - - - - -

Gas Manufacture - - - - - - - - - - -

Total Final Consumption 49.5 26.2 26.8 53.1 25.6 26.7 52.3 23.1 25.1 48.2 48.5

Industry 47.6 25.7 25.7 51.4 25.1 25.8 50.8 22.7 24.2 46.9 47.3

Transport - - - - - - - - - - -

Buildings 1.9 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.2

Consumption by products

Anthracite 10.7 4.7 5.5 10.2 5.0 5.6 10.7 4.6 5.7 10.3 9.6

Bituminous 118.8 60.3 62.8 123.1 61.7 62.5 124.2 57.2 59.2 116.4 124.5

Iron making 32.1 18.8 18.8 37.6 18.0 18.7 36.8 16.2 17.2 33.4 33.7

Cement 4.6 2.5 2.4 4.9 2.3 2.3 4.7 2.1 2.2 4.4 4.3




Oil

(Mbbl)

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Total Oil Demand 825.2 404.6 416.8 821.5 417.5 438.7 856.2 445.6 464.8 910.4 931.2

Transform 26.1 8.6 4.4 13.0 7.3 7.3 14.6 12.2 14.6 26.8 24.4


Heat 1.3 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.6

Gas Manufacture 1.9 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.3


Industry 482.0 242.4 249.5 491.8 243.8 257.2 501.0 259.6 268.8 528.5 547.5

Transport 267.4 130.7 138.1 268.8 139.4 147.6 287.1 145.5 154.0 299.6 304.7

Buildings 49.7 23.0 24.9 47.9 27.0 26.5 53.5 28.3 27.3 55.6 54.6

Consumption by products

Gasoline 73.4 35.5 38.0 73.5 37.1 39.5 76.6 38.1 40.9 79.0 80.2

Diesel (including Transform) 143.0 70.5 74.3 144.8 76.0 80.4 156.4 81.3 84.4 165.8 168.0

Kerosene (including Transform) 18.8 7.1 8.4 15.4 8.2 8.0 16.2 10.0 9.5 19.5 19.2

B-C (including Transform) 46.4 18.9 14.4 33.3 19.3 19.0 38.3 24.8 27.5 52.3 50.7

Jet Oil 30.3 15.7 16.3 32.0 17.1 17.3 34.4 18.2 18.3 36.5 38.5

LPG (including Transform) 93.1 44.0 45.6 89.6 41.5 48.4 89.9 50.4 54.6 104.9 107.1

Naphtha 384.2 194.7 201.7 396.3 203.1 207.7 410.8 205.1 209.3 414.4 430.5

Other Non-Energy 36.0 18.3 18.2 36.6 15.4 18.3 33.7 17.6 20.3 37.9 37.0



Gas

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Total Gas Demand (Mton) 40.3 19.4 17.3 36.6 18.2 15.2 33.4 18.2 15.4 33.5 29.8

Transform 40.0 19.2 17.1 36.4 18.1 15.0 33.1 18.0 15.2 33.2 29.4


Heat 2.6 1.5 0.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.7

Gas Manufacture 19.8 10.0 8.3 18.3 9.7 7.3 17.0 9.8 7.4 17.2 17.4

Industry 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

City Gas (Bm3) 23.9 12.5 9.6 22.1 12.5 8.9 21.4 12.3 9.0 21.3 21.6

Industry* 9.5 4.6 4.1 8.7 3.8 3.5 7.3 3.7 3.4 7.1 7.3

Transport 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2

Buildings 13.1 7.3 4.8 12.2 8.1 4.7 12.8 8.0 4.9 12.9 13.1

* exclude industrial LNG usage



Electricity

(TWh)

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Net Electricity Demand 517.7 257.8 264.2 522.0 260.6 267.5 528.1 262.0 274.9 536.9 544.1

Own use and Losses 42.9 17.6 26.7 44.4 16.2 28.3 44.4 13.5 30.3 43.8 44.4


Industry 256.8 132.1 132.6 264.6 133.3 132.4 265.6 134.1 133.6 267.7 270.7

Transport 2.2 0.9 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.8

Buildings 215.8 107.1 103.8 211.0 110.1 105.7 215.8 113.1 109.6 222.7 226.2

Installed Electrical Capacity (GW)* 327.2 175.2 182.4 357.5 190.1 194.4 384.5 197.3 210.7 408.0 465.1

Coal 98.1 50.8 52.9 103.6 54.1 54.3 108.4 54.8 59.5 114.4 138.9

Oil 19.5 10.0 8.5 18.5 8.5 8.5 17.0 8.5 8.4 16.9 16.9

Gas 89.1 52.5 58.1 110.6 63.1 64.1 127.2 64.8 71.0 135.8 152.5

Nuclear 82.9 41.4 41.4 82.9 41.4 43.4 84.9 43.4 44.4 87.8 96.2

Hydro 25.8 12.9 12.9 25.8 12.9 12.9 25.9 13.0 13.0 25.9 25.9


Electricity Generation of Power Plants* 517.7 257.8 264.2 522.0 260.6 267.5 528.1 262.0 274.9 536.9 544.1

Coal 200.4 97.9 105.6 203.4 102.6 102.1 204.7 93.0 92.7 185.7 213.1

Oil 15.8 13.6 11.4 25.0 15.7 16.0 31.7 17.9 29.9 47.8 42.2

Gas 128.3 57.7 56.9 114.7 51.7 49.1 100.8 52.0 52.0 103.9 74.1

Nuclear 138.8 77.9 78.5 156.4 78.5 86.3 164.8 86.4 88.9 175.3 187.9

Hydro 8.5 3.6 4.2 7.8 2.8 3.0 5.8 3.0 3.3 6.3 6.4


Fuel Consumption of Power Plants (Mtoe)* 108.3 53.1 55.0 108.1 54.2 55.2 109.4 54.6 56.0 110.6 112.4

Coal 49.2 23.7 25.5 49.2 25.2 25.4 50.6 23.7 24.4 48.0 52.5

Oil 3.6 1.2 0.6 1.7 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 2.2 3.9 3.5

Gas 23.3 10.3 10.7 21.0 10.0 9.3 19.3 9.6 9.4 18.9 13.7

Nuclear 29.3 16.4 16.6 33.0 16.6 18.2 34.8 18.2 18.8 37.0 39.6

Hydro 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4


* District Heat is classified by fuel type since 2014



Heat and Other Renewables

(Mtoe)

2013 2014 2015p 2016e 2017e

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

Net Heat Demand 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.6 1.6 1.6

Own use and Losses 0.1 - 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 0.0 - 0.1 - 0.1


Industry - - - - - - - - - - -

Transport - - - - - - - - - - -

Buildings 1.7 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.7

Heat Production by fuel

Coal - - - - - - - - - - -

Oil 1.2 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.2

Gas 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5

Nuclear - - - - - - - - - - -

Hydro - - - - - - - - - - -

Other Renewables - - - - - - - - - - -

Fuel Consumption of District Heat

Coal - - - - - - - - - - -

Oil 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1

Gas 3.3 1.9 0.9 2.8 1.1 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.9 2.2 2.2

Nuclear - - - - - - - - - - -

Hydro - - - - - - - - - - -

Other Renewables - - - - - - - - - - -


Hydro 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4

Transform 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.8


Industry 6.5 4.0 4.0 8.1 4.1 4.4 8.6 4.9 4.6 9.5 10.5

Transport 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5

Buildings 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.3

KEEI Korea Energy Demand Outlook (Volume 18 No. 3)

Printed in Fall 2016

Issued in Fall 2016

CEO of publisher: Park Joo-heon

Publisher: Korea Energy Economics Institute

405-11, Jongga-ro, Jung-gu, Ulsan, Korea, 44543

Phone: (052)714-2270, Fax: (052)714-2025

Registration: No. 8 on December 7, 1992

Printed by: Bumshinsa (052)245-8737

ⓒ Korea Energy Economic Institute 2016


ISSN 2093-71999 772093 719008

6 3

Korea Energy Demand Outlook

405-11, Jongga-ro, Jung-gu, Ulsan, Korea, 44543

Phone: (052)714-2270

Fax: (052)714-2025

E-mail : [email protected]

Hompage : http://www.keei.re.kr

korea energy demand outlook (volume 18, no.3)

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