kristie l. ebi, ph.d., mph north america 2030: an environmental outlook 25 june 2008 climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
North America 2030: An
Environmental Outlook
25 June 2008
Climate Change and Public Health Concerns in North America
Pathways by Which Climate Change May Affect Human Health
IPCC 2007
Health Impacts Depend on Multiple Factors
Geographic factors:Baseline climateAbundance of natural resources (i.e. soil, fresh
water supplies)Elevation
Biological sensitivity:Developmental stagePre-existing medical conditions and/or acquired
factors (i.e. immunity)Genetic factors
Socioeconomic factors:May increase likelihood of exposure to harmful
agents/high risk residencesAssociated with underlying diseases that mediate
riskAffect ability to adapt or respond
Direction and Magnitude of Climate Change Health Impacts
IPCC 2007
McGheehin
Extreme Weather
Projected Ozone-Related Deaths, NY Metro Area, 2050s vs 1990s
Kinney et al. 2006
Distribution of Lyme Disease, 1991-2000 and 2020
00 1-461-46
47-9047-90
91-15991-159
160-266
160-266
267-433
267-433
434-694
434-694
695-1101
695-1101
1102-1738
1102-1738
1739-2145
1739-2145
Tick abundance at model equilibrium
Ogden et al. Int. J. Parasitol. 2005, 2006
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temp Alberta Salmonella
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temp Alberta Campylobacter
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
-1.5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Temp Alberta E. coli
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-20 -10 0 10 20
-2
-1
0
1
2
Temp Nfld-Lab Salmonella
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-20 -10 0 10 20
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Temp Nfld-Lab Campylobacter
RR of Salmonella increased by 1.2% per degree above - 10˚C
RR of Campylobacter increased by 2.2% (4.5% in Newfoundland) per degree above - 10˚C
RR of E. coli increased by 6.0% per degree above - 10˚C
Fleury et al. 2006
Temperature and Enteric Disease
EDF/George Mason/NACCHO Survey of Public Health Directors
Department Has Expertise to Assess Health Risks?
Priority Issues to Address
Increase resilience of public health systemsUniform data indicators and data systemsDecision support tools for climate change
and healthExplicitly incorporate climate change into
transboundary cooperation for:• Air toxics• Vectorborne diseases
Health impact assessments of mitigation and adaptation programs and activities across all sectors
