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K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference London, 16 November 2016 Norbert Steiner, CEO

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Page 1: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Aktiengesellschaft

UBS European ConferenceLondon, 16 November 2016

Norbert Steiner, CEO

Page 2: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 2

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

Page 3: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 3

Investment CaseK+S Group

Complementary Activities

Salt Business Unit

Potash and Magnesium Products Business Unit

K+S Group

Geographicreach

Broad productportfolio

Positionedfor growth

Page 4: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 4

Our ProductsK+S Group

in % of sales volumes, FY 2015

Potash and Magnesium Products Salt

Industrial products

Specialties

KCl (MOP)

De-icing

Industrial

Salt for chemical use

Food processing

46%56%

44%16%

10%

14%

8%

6%

Consumer

Page 5: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 5

Our ProductsK+S Group

De-icing

Fertilizer

Food processing

Chemicals

Pharma

Oil & Gas

Agriculture(Feed)

~ 10m tons

~ 6m tons

~ 11m tons

Page 6: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group

From Capex to CashK+S Group

6

Capex Phase Cash Phase 2020

Net debt2

< € 2.0 billion

Leverage2

1.0-1.5x

CapexMaintenance

FCFPositive

EBITDA5

~ € 1.6 billion

Net debt1,2

€ 3.2 billion

Leverage2 (LTM)4.9x

Capex3

€ 1.3 billion

FCFNegative

EBITDA4

€ 500-560 million

Keeping cost discipline above

and beyond “Fit for the

Future”

Successful implementation of “Salt 2020“

Strategy

Enhancing portfolio of

higher yielding products

Managing environmental

challenges particularly in

Germany

Successful commissioning

of Legacy

Management Agenda

Fundamentals of the potash business expected to improve5

1 Q3/16 2 incl. provisions 3 2015 4 Guidance 20165 Main assumptions: Unaffected potash production in Germany and Canada; Potash price level of summer 2015; USD/EUR 1.10; normal winters in North

America and Europe. Development of strategic measures to support the goal.

Page 7: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 7

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

Page 8: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 8

Long-Term Dynamics Positive for FertilizerPotash and Magnesium Products

4.300 m2 2.100 m2 1.800 m2

Global population development

Arable Landper capita

Proteinper capita

60 g/ day 80 g/ day 130 g/ day1)

Jahr

3.0 billion

Less arable land – but more protein consumption per capita

Each year additional 80m people need to

be fed – this equals to the population of

Germany

Available arable land per capita will

decrease at the same time

By 2050 an expanded world population will

be consuming two thirds more animal

protein than it does today

In 2050, only roughly a quarter of a soccer field will be available to feed one person year round - 80 percent of future growth in crop production will come from yield advancements driven by balanced

use of fertilizers

6.9 billion 9.7 billion

1960 2010 2050

Sources: UN, World Population Prospects, 2012 Revision, UNDP, 2013; FAOStat 20141) FAO 2014 - forecasts based on the expected increase in animal protein

Page 9: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 9

Utilizing Entire Range of Minerals in Complex DepositsPotash and Magnesium Products

KCl 16.1%

Kieserite 20.4%

Residue 63.5%

e.g. Neuhof 2014

Mineral extraction

Reducing specific costs of our MOP products

Kieserite

Korn-Kali

Magnesia-Kainit

MOP

K+S product offering

SOP

Extending our product offering

$$$

Raw

Sal

t

KCL (MOP)

3.1

Industrial products

0.7

Specialties

3.0

Basis: 2015 Sales volumes in million tons

6.8

SOP

Korn-Kali

Kieserite

Industrial potash

Health Care & Nutrition

FertilizerIndustrial

ApplicationsHealth Care &

Nutrition

Page 10: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 10

Leading Position in EuropePotash and Magnesium Products

Europe

South America

Asia

Other regions

Page 11: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 11

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Bas

is: Q

12

01

2

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Bas

is: Q

12

01

4

K+S average selling price versus selected peers

MOP gran. Europe vs. Brazil (Source: FMB)

200

300

400

500

600

200

300

400

500

600

Europe (€, Granular, cfr)

Brazil(US$/t, Granular, cfr)

US$/t €/t

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

K+SK+S

Potash and Magnesium ProductsOur Unique Portfolio Makes Us More Robust

Peers

Peers

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K+S Group

Limited deep-well injection permit at the Werra plant

Review by authorities still ongoing

Production largely based on water flow rate of Werra river

Measures to mitigate impact from missing permit ramping up slowly

Expansion of tailings pile capacity Wintershall(Werra) and Zielitz

Prolongation of Werra river injection permit

Implementation of sustainable solutions

Oberweserpipeline

Coverage of tailings piles

Underground backfilling(currently being analyzed)

Environmental RoadmapPotash and Magnesium Products

2016 2019 and beyond

(1) Kainite Crystallization and Flotation Facility

Continuation of implementation of measures to mitigate impact from missing permit

Commissioning of KCF(1)

will reduce saline wastewater from Werra plant by 1.5 million m³ to 5.5 million m³

Expansion of tailings pile capacity Hattorf (Werra)

2017/2018

12

Page 13: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 13

Strengthening our Global Presence Legacy Project

ChinaIndiaSouth East Asia

North America

South America

Expanding our current production portfolio in Germany with a North American production site Second source supplier

Securing a good asset base with competitive production costs

Sales and distribution through existing distribution structures of the K+S group

Exclusive outline agreement with Koch Fertilizer about supply and sales of Potash fertilizers in the US

Regional growth projects in China and SEA

Flexible multi-product strategyLocated in the Heart of Saskatchewan’s Potash-Rich Basin

Regina

Two additional potash permit areas in the Esterhazy potash region

Page 14: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 14

Legacy ProjectCleanup After Incident in Progress

Crane for removal of damaged equipment on site

Production of 1st ton expected in Q2/17

Capacity of 2 million tons p.a. will be reached by the end of 2017

equals

€ ~3.1

2013 Final

Budget development (in billion)

CAD ~4.1 Budget of CAD 4.1 billion will be

moderately exceeded due to incident

Positive currency development led to unchanged budget in EUR terms since review in 2013

Page 15: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 15

ValuationLegacy Project

~90

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Co

sts

pe

r to

n (

CA

D)

Volume ramp-up (m metric tons) /costs per ton (CAD)

Production costs Logistics costs Mining taxes/ royalties

<1m up to 2m ~2m ~2.3 ~2.4 ~2.6 ~2.9Sales volumes (metric tons)

Implied Value Per Share (€)

Terminal growth rate

0% 2%

WA

CC

7% ~ 21

8% ~ 11

Volume ramp-up/ costs per ton (CAD)

Main assumptions:

Unaffected potash production Potash price level of summer 2015

(time of release of guidance)

Page 16: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 16

Acquisition in ChinaPotash and Magnesium Products

Huludao Magpower Fertilizers Co., one of the largest producers of synthetic magnesium sulphate (SMS)

SMS is used as fertilizer for oil palms, soybeans and sugar cane as well as for industrial applications

Strengthen our competitive position in specialties

Improved access to growth markets of South-East Asia and China

Scalable low cost production assets

Huludao

Page 17: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 17

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

Page 18: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group

Salt

18

Low single-digit demand growth p.a. to 20181

1 Source: Roskill

Demand driven by … Product category

Long-Term Dynamics in Salt Demand

De-Icing

Food processingPopulation growth

Economic growth andindustrialisation

Winter weather conditions

Infrastructure development

Increasing standard of living

Industrial

ChemicalUrbanization

Consumer

Page 19: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group

Inevitable for lifeSalt

19

Main Applications:

Food processing industry

Baking industry

Condiment and preservative agent

Main Applications:

Chemical industry

Chlor-Alkali processes (→ PVC)

Polycarbonates ,MDI (Isocyanat)(→ plastics, synthetic resin)

Synthetic Soda Ash (→ glass)

Main Applications:

Winter road maintenance services

Commercial users

Private households

Main Applications:

Water treatment

Drilling fluids

Animal feed

Infusion, dialysissolutions

Pharmaceuticals

Preserving of fish

Dyeing works

Leather treatment

De-Icing Food processing Industrial ChemicalConsumer

Main Applications:

Table salt

Dishwasher care

Water softening

Pool chlorination

Body care

Page 20: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 20

Unrivalled Global Production NetworkSalt

Competitive edge: Unrivalled global

production network

More than 30 assets on 3 continents allow close proximity to customers in a business that is highly freight-cost sensitive

Ensuring close proximity to customers Broad range of products due to variety of production methods Best in class supply chain assets and competence Industry best cost production in Chile

Expansion into Asia-Pacific:

Project Launch in Australia

Page 21: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 21

Diverse Regional and Product PortfolioSalt

NormalizedRevenue

Distribution

Consumer

Industrial

Food processing

Salt for chemical use

1 De-icing adjusted to normal winter

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K+S Group 22

Presence in Attractive De-Icing Markets Salt

Indicative regional strength of winter

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Europe North America

Great Lakes

US East Coast

Eastern Canada

Central Europe

Scandinavia

Page 23: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 23

‘Salt 2020’ Strategy – On TrackSalt

211

62

118

173

266

250+Normalized

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020e

Equalsmore than€ 400 millionEBITDA

Expected EBIT development

Safety first!

Remove silo thinking

Transparency/trust

High performance and engaged workforce

Fit for the Future

Business and technical processes

Supply chain and distribution network improvements

Market share growth

New segments

New regions

Actual results

Salt 2020 Launched

Priority areas

GROWTH CULTUREEFFICIENCY

Page 24: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 24

Expansion into Asia-Pacific: Project Launch in AustraliaSalt

“We want this project to give a boost to our planned expansion into the Asian markets. We see big potential there, and want to sustainably participate in the

expected growth there in the future. The purchase of the licenses is the foundation to

achieve this.” Mark Roberts, CEO Salt

Component of “Salt 2020” strategy

Initial focus on obtaining necessary permits

CapEx estimate of around € 225 million

Estimated production capacity of 3.5 million tons p.a.

Main customers in the chemical industry in Asia

Possible production start in 2022

Page 25: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 25

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group 26

P&LK+S Group

The adjusted key figures only include operating forecast hedges of the respective reporting period in EBIT I. In addition, related effects on deferred and

cash taxes are also excluded.

€ million FY/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

Revenues 3,822 1,377 914 891 993 4,175 1,096 732 688

EBIT I 641 317 179 132 154 782 218 15 -31

t/o insurance gain 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT I w/o insur.gain

605 317 179 132 154 782 218 15 -31

Margin 16% 23% 20% 15% 16% 19% 20% 2% -5%

Financial result -126 -40 -14 -7 +27 -34 -13 -15 -9

EBT, adjusted 515 276 166 125 181 748 205 0 -41

Tax rate, adjusted 29% 28% 28% 29% 25% 28% 28% 29% 34%

Net income, adjusted

367 198 119 89 136 542 148 0 -27

EPS, adjusted 1.92 1.04 0.62 0.46 0.71 2.83 0.77 0.00 -0.14

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K+S Group

2013 2014 2015 2016

>150

30

>180

27

Cost Discipline Will Remain HighK+S Group

on

track

€ million

“Fit for the Future” on track More than 2/3 of total

aspirations achieved Measures implemented will

continue beyond 2016 with full effects until 2018

Further top-down measures beyond “Fit for the Future” initiated Effects coming through in

2017 and 2018

Page 28: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS European Conference ... K+S Group A K+S Unique Strategic Position B Current Trading C Outlook 2

K+S Group 28

Cash Flow and Balance SheetK+S Group

€ million FY/14 Q1/15 H1/15 9M/15 FY/15 Q1/16 H1/16 9M/16

Operating cash flow 707 301 423 613 669 294 359 390

- Investing cash flow(pre sale/ purchase of securities)

-1,013 -203 -516 -877 -1,305 -243 -537 -847

Adjusted free cash flow -306 98 -93 -264 -636 50 -178 -456

CapEx 1,153 200 555 905 1,279 280 643 904

Net debt (-) -1,626 -1,602 -1,968 -2,173 -2,400 -2,367 -2,860 -3,180

t/o Net financial debt (-) -591 -440 -814 -1,007 -1,364 -1,315 -1,756 -2,052

Net debt/ EBITDA (LTM) 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.6 4.9

Equity ratio 51% 52% 52% 51% 52% 52% 49% 48%

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K+S Group 29

Debt ProfileK+S Group

Bond I € 500 million(expn. June 2022; coupon: 3.000%)

Bond II € 500 million(expn. Dec 2021; coupon: 4.125%)

Bond III € 500 million(expn. Dec 2018; coupon: 3.125%)

RCF € 1 billion

Debt Instruments

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Schuldschein € 700 million(3-yrs: € 295 million; 5-yrs: € 365 million; 7-yrs: € 40 million)

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K+S Group 30

Potash and Magnesium ProductsK+S Group

(1) (Revenues – EBIT) / Sales volumes (2) Excluding OpEx Legacy (3) Excl. anticipated insurance payment

€ million FY/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

Revenues 1,884 608 501 471 511 2,091 461 371 302

EBIT I 489 183 144 92 127 546 102 15 -49

t/o insurance gain 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT I w/o insurance gain 455 183 144 93 127 546 102 15 -49

Margin 24% 30% 29% 20% 25% 26% 22% 4% -16%

t/o Legacy OpEx -37 -13 -20 -15 -20 -68 -19 -21 -26

Avg. selling price (€/t) 274 314 310 310 292 307 272 250 239

Sales volumes (million tons) 6.87 1.94 1.61 1.52 1.75 6.82 1.69 1.48 1.26

FY/14(3) Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

Costs per ton (1,2) 208 212 209 239 208 217 201 226 258

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K+S Group 31

SaltK+S Group

€ million FY/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

Revenues 1,779 727 374 382 442 1,925 595 319 346

EBIT I 173 142 43 43 39 266 123 5 18

Margin 10% 20% 11% 11% 9% 14% 21% 2% 5%

Sales volumes (million tons) 23.6 9.1 3.6 3.8 4.7 21.1 7.1 2.9 3.5

De-icing 14.4 6.9 1.2 1.5 2.3 11.9 4.9 0.6 1.0

Non de-icing 9.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 9.2 2.2 2.3 2.5

Average selling prices (€)

De-icing 53 65 65 62 67 65 64 53 52

Non de-icing 104 119 120 124 118 120 122 123 113

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K+S Group 32

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group

K+S GroupGuidance FY 2016: EBIT I Bridge

33

Actual2015

Volume-/price

Missing deep-well injection

permit

Othereffects(net)

Fit for theFuture

2016e

782

€ million

200

260

2016e EBIT range

Main effects:- OpEx Legacy- Higher D&A

Main assumptions:Potash• Lower YoY potash ASP• Hydrological normal year• Execution of countermeasures• Sales volumes around 6.1 million tons

Salt• Moderate decline of de-icing volumes• Slight increase of non de-icing volumes

may not offset this

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K+S Group

K+S GroupDividend policy

34

Target payout ratio of 40-50%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Payout ratio (lhs) Dividend yield (rhs)

Earnings-based dividend policy

Payout ratio of 40 – 50% of adjusted net profit

Dividend 2015: € 1.15 per share(2014: € 0.90 per share)

1) Based on year-end share prices

1)

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K+S Group 35

IR Contact DetailsK+S Group

E-Mail: [email protected]: www.k-plus-s.comIR-website: www.k-plus-s.com/en/ir

K+S AktiengesellschaftBertha-von-Suttner-Str. 734131 Kassel (Germany)

Laura SchumberaJunior Investor Relations Manager

Phone.: +49 561 / 9301-1607Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Thorsten BoeckersHead of Investor Relations

Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1460Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Andrea RachInvestor Relations Assistant

Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1100Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Martin HeistermannSenior Investor Relations Manager

Phone.: +49 561 / 9301-1403Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Patrick KoflerSenior Investor Relations Manager

Phone.: +49 561 / 9301-1885Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

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K+S Group 36

Forward-Looking StatementsK+S Group

This presentation contains facts and forecasts that relate to the future development of the K+S

Group and its companies. The forecasts are estimates that we have made on the basis of all the

information available to us at this moment in time. Should the assumptions underlying

these forecasts prove not to be correct or should certain risks – such as those referred to in

the Risk Report of the Annual Report – materialize, actual developments and events may

deviate from current expectations. The Company assumes no obligation to update the

statements, save for the making of such disclosures as are required by the provisions of

statute.

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K+S Group

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K+S Group 38

K+S Group

K+S Aktiengesellschaft · Bertha-von-Suttner-Straße 7 · 34131 Kassel | Germany · Internet: www.k-plus-s.com

Investor Relations · phone: +49 (0)561 / 9301-1100 · fax: +49 (0)561 / 9301-2425 · email: [email protected]

Financial Calendar 2017: 16 Mar: FY/16 – 9 May: Q1/17 – 10 May: AGM – 11 May: ExDiv – 15 Aug: Q2/17 – 15 Nov: Q3/17

K+S Share

• WKN: KSAG88

• ISIN: DE000KSAG888

• Ticker-Symbols:

Bloomberg SDF /

Reuters SDFG

K+S ADR

• CUSIP: 48265W108

• ADR Ticker-Symbol:

Bloomberg: KPLUY /

Reuters: KPLUY.PK

K+S Bond 06/2022

• WKN: A1P GZ8

• ISIN: DE000A1PGZ82

K+S Bond 12/2018

• WKN: A1Y CR4

• ISIN: XS0997941199

K+S Bond 12/2021

• WKN: A1Y CR5

• ISIN: XS0997941355