kwazulu-natal provincial treasury€¦ · 2002 and 2007, moving from a gdp-r of 15,7bn to 18,3bn; a...

KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Treasury

UTHUNGULU DISTRICT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE

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8.1 Demographics

The KwaZulu-Natal Province has both, a growing and maturing population, presenting

opportunities and challenges to the province. According to Statistics South Africa mid-

year estimates (2008), the KwaZulu-Natal population was estimated at an average size

of 10,1 million people. The largest number of these people lived in eThekwini Metro

(32.6 percent of the provincial population), followed by uThungulu district (10.2%) and

uMgungundlovu (10.0%). Sisonke was the least populated district municipality (4,0%)

(Figure 8.1).

Figure 8.1: Total Population by DMs, average 2002-2008

Source: Global Insight, 2008; Stats SA, 2008

Figure 8.2 shows the distribution of the population across district municipalities by age

group. In uThungulu the largest proportion of the population was the age group 15-64

years (565,935), which constitute 57.4 percent of the district population1. This was

followed by age group 0-14 years (384,915), which is about 39.0 percent. The elderly

population made the smallest portion of the total population in the district at 3.9 percent.

In uThungulu the majority of the population was females across age groups (Figure 8.3).

1 The provincial estimate was 6,033,961.

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The total number of households in uThungulu made up 9.0 percent of the total

households in the province, almost consistent with its share of the provincial population.

Figure 8.2: Total population by age group across DMs; average 2002-2008

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Ugu

Um

gung

undlov

u

Uth

ukela

Um

ziny

athi

Am

ajub

a

Zululan

d

Um

khan

yaku

de

uThu

ngulu

iLem

be

Sison

ke

eThe

kwini

%

0-14 15-64 65+


Figure 8.3: Total population distribution by gender across DMs; average 2002-2008

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Ugu Umgungundlovu Uthukela Umzinyathi Amajuba Zululand Umkhanyakude uThungulu iLembe Sisonke eThekwini

%

Male Female


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8.2 Economic Outlook

8.2.1 Gross domestic product per municipality (GDP-M)

Between 2002 and 2008, the GDPR for KwaZulu-Natal was estimated at an annual

average of R184,8bn. There was significant growth of 29.9 percent from R162bn in 2002

to R210,4bn in 2007. UThungulu was the second largest contributor to the provincial

GDPR at an annual average of 9.25 percent, after eThekwini (64.9%), and was followed

by the uMgungundlovu district which contributed 8.43 percent. The least contributor was

uMzinyathi at 0.8 percent (Figure 8.4). UThungulu boasted significant growth between

2002 and 2007, moving from a GDP-R of 15,7bn to 18,3bn; a growth of 17 percent.

Figure 8.4: Districts contribution to KwaZulu-Natal GDPR, average 2002-2008

eThekwini, 64.85

Uthungulu, 9.25

uMgungundlovu, 8.43

iLembe, 3.36

Umkhanyakude, 1.06

Zululand, 1.50

Amajuba, 3.52

Umzinyathi, 0.78

Uthukela, 2.46

Ugu, 3.69

Sisonke, 1.09

Source: Global Insight, 2009

Figure 8.5 shows uThungulu’s GDP-M by economic sector between 2002 and 2008.

During this period the economy of the district grew by an annual average of 3.1 percent.

Manufacturing, Mining and Community Services sectors are the main economic drivers

in this district. These three sectors contributed respective annual averages of 40.9

percent, 12.4 percent and 11.9 percent to the district’s GDPM between 2002 and 2008.

However, Transport was the fastest growing sector at an annual average of 5.0 percent.

Agriculture and Electricity showed least growth, both at 1.1 percent. The negative impact

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of agriculture on uThungulu’s economy was mostly felt in 2006 as compared to other

years. This shows that there is a structural shift in the uThungulu’s economy from

agriculture to industrialized economy.

Figure 8.5: UThungulu GDP-M by Sectors: 2002-2008

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

Transport

Community services

Electricity

Construction

Trade

Finance

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

Contribution to GDP-R

An

nu

al G

DP

-R


8.2.2 International trade

Figure 8.6 shows the percentage of exports, imports and trade balance (as a proportion

of GDP-M) across all DMs. It reveals that the economy of uThungulu is mainly

dominated by international trade, and that it exports more than it imports; the percentage

of export and import to GDP-M is 103.8 percent and 35.4 percent respectively. This

results in a positive trade balance of 68.6 percent, the highest in the province, followed

by uMgungundlovu (19.0%). Many DMs including eThekwini, had a negative trade

balance.

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Figure 8.6: Export, Import and Trade Balance (percent of GDP), average 2002-08

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

eThe

kwini

Ugu

uMgu

ngun

dlov

u

Uth

ukela

Um

ziny

athi

Amajub

a

Zululan

d

Um

khan

yaku

de

Uth

ungu

lu

iLem

be

Sison

ke

%

Exports Imports Trade Balance


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8.3 The labour market 8.3.1 The labour force and the economically active population

As mentioned earlier, between 2002 and 2006, the provincial labour force approximated

at 6,0 million people per annum (approximately 60.0 percent of total provincial

population). Of this total, the economically active population (EAP)2 was approximately

3,1 million. More than 1,4 million of these people were in eThekwini (Figure 8.7).

UThungulu had approximately 221 thousand people falling in this category.

As a proportion of the district labour force, uThungulu’s EAP was about 42 percent, the

slightly less than the provincial average (52.9%). It is the fourth most economically active

district after uMgungundlovu (58.3%), Amajuba (56.0%) and the Metro (66.7%). This

shows that although uThungulu has more people in the labour force category than

Amajuba, more people in the latter district are available for employment than in the

former.

Figure 8.7: The economically active population by municipal district, average 2002-2006

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0%

uMgungundlovu

(359, 942; 60.6%)

uThukela uMkhanyakude

Umzinyathi

Sisonke

Zululand

iLembe

Ugu

Uthungulu

(220,627; 41.5%)

Amajuba

(159,278; 54.6%)

eThekwini EAP =

1,444,201 (66.8%)

KZN avg 52.5%

Labour participation rates

EA

P (

siz

e)

Source: Global Insight, 2007; Mahlatsi, 2007

2 The category EAP is made up of people who are either employed or unemployed. The employed consists

of employers and employees, while unemployment are those not having a job but are actively seeking one

(official definition), or they do not have a job, are actively seeking one or have given up searching yet still

available for work at anytime (expanded definition).

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8.3.2 Unemployment

Between 2002 and 2006, the number of unemployed people in uThungulu averaged

112, 000. This was the third highest unemployment figure after the Metro (562, 000) and

uMgungundlovu (172, 000).

Figure 8.8 gives the average unemployment rates (the unemployed as proportion of the

EAP) in the districts between 2002 and 2006. It transpires from the graph that although

uThungulu has a lower labour participation rate than Amajuba (Figure 4.7), the former

fails to absorb even the few people that are readily available for work; the average

unemployment rate for uThungulu was 46.8 percent against 45.4 percent for Amajuba.

This is a serious condition and needs probing and appropriate correction.

Figure 8.8: Unemployment rate3 by district, average 2002-2007

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Kw

aZulu

-Nata

l

eThekw

ini

Metr

opolita

n

Munic

ipality

DC21:

Ugu

DC22:

uM

gungundlo

vu

DC23:

Uth

ukela

DC24:

Um

zin

yath

i

DC25:

Am

aju

ba

DC26:

Zulu

land

DC27:

Um

khanyakude

DC28:

Uth

ungulu

DC29:

iLem

be

DC43:

Sis

onke


As could be expected, the unemployment rate was higher among Blacks than the other

population groups. This ranged between 47.0 percent (uMgungundlovu) and 75.1

percent (uMzinyathi). UThungulu’s respective figure was 50.8 percent.

3 Expanded definition; includes those unemployed but not actively seeking a job.

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8.3.3 Employment

8.3.3.1 Total employment

During the same period, KwaZulu-Natal employment totaled an annual average of 2,1

million workers. UThungulu had the third highest employment after uMgungundlovu and

the Metro (Figure 8.9).

This reflects dual economy syndrome in the district as there are impressively a sizeable

number of workers among a significant number of unemployed others.

Figure 8.9: Total employment by district, average 2002-2007

230,863

105,702

146,440

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

DC21:

Ugu

DC22:

uM

gungundlo

vu

DC23:

Uth

ukela

DC24:

Um

zin

yath

i

DC25:

Am

aju

ba

DC26:

Zulu

land

DC27:

Um

khanyakude

DC28:

Uth

ungulu

DC29:

iLem

be

DC43:

Sis

onke

eThekwini

1,117,578


8.3.3.2 Formal employment

Throughout the period, formal employment played the most significant role in the

province, ranging between 60 percent and 80 percent of districts’ total employment

(Figure 8.10). As in the total employment, uThungulu’s formal employment held the third

position too, after uMgungundlovu and the Metro – all the three districts had higher than

provincial average formal employment.

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Figure 8.10 also reveals why Amajuba has been able to absorb its labour force faster

than uThungulu; the district had the lowest formal employment share to its total

employment (64.4%).

The formal employment sector in uThungulu was quite ‘balanced’ between the five major

employing economic sectors (Community Services4, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Finance

and Trade). The district’s Community Services was the biggest employer (22.1%),

followed by Manufacturing (19.9%), Agriculture (13.8%) and Trade (9.9%). The least

contributors to formal employment were Electricity (0.7%) and Construction, Mining (4.5

percent each).

Figure 8.10: Formal employment within districts (%), average 2002-2007

77.7%

74.5%

74.8%

76.4%

64.4%

20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

KwaZulu-Natal

eThekwini Metropolitan

Municipality

DC21: Ugu

DC22: uMgungundlovu

DC23: Uthukela

DC24: Umzinyathi

DC25: Amajuba

DC26: Zululand

DC27: Umkhanyakude

DC28: Uthungulu

DC29: iLembe

DC43: Sisonke


Education was the largest engine behind the Community Service performance,

contributing a solid half of the sector’s employment. Health and Social Work also played

a good role (Figure 8.11). This shows that the education-and-health inclined provincial

expenditure budget reaches this district proportionately.

4 This was the most dominant sector in all the districts except eThekwini, Amajuba, iLembe and Sisonke.

In fact, in all the districts, it was one of the two leading sectors with either Manufacturing or Agriculture.

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Figure 8.11: UThungulu formal employment by economic sector (%), average 2002-2007

Construction

Mining

Electricity

Community services 22%

Education

Health and social work

Other service activities

Public admin and defence

Manufacturing 19%Agric 13%

Trade 10%

Households 9%

Finance 9%Trans 7%

11%


8.3.3.3 Informal employment

Informal sector employment was recorded mainly in Manufacturing, Construction, Trade,

Transport, Finance and Community Services. In all the districts, Trade was the main

employer with all but four districts having more than half employment in this sector.

UThungulu was one of the leading districts in informal Trade employment5 (Figure 8.12).

Given the district’s geographical location, this employment could be parallel to the formal

Trade employment (see Figure 8.13), but to a less extent in Hotels and Restaurants.

5 An unfortunate hindrance is the absence of detailed data on this issue.

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Figure 8.12: Informal employment by district and main economic sector (%), average 2002-2007

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Kw

aZulu

-N

ata

l

eThekw

ini

Metr

opolita

n

Munic

ipality

DC21: U

gu

DC22:

uM

gungundlo

vu

DC23: U

thukela

DC24: U

mzin

yath

i

DC25: A

maju

ba

DC26: Z

ulu

land

DC27:

Um

khanyakude

DC28: U

thungulu

DC29: iLem

be

DC43: S

isonke

Trade Constr Comm serve Manufacturing Trans Finance


Figure 8.13: UThungulu formal employment in Trade (%), average 2002-2007

Retail trade and repairs of

goods, 37.4%

Wholesale and commission

trade, 24.9%

Hotels and restaurants,

17.9%

Sale and repairs of motor

vehicles, sale of fuel,

19.9%


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8.4 Crime Between 2002 and 2007, there has been a consistent decline in reported incidences of

crime in the province (2.45% annual average). The overall number of crimes reported in

uThungulu has declined by 18.2 percent over the same period.

However, 2003 forwards have seen a similar experience, though with differing

magnitudes. The provincial collapse rate in crime was 5.1 percent, while uThungulu’s

respective figure was 4.1 percent; this was the third lowest achievement after eThekwini

and iLembe.

Figure 8.14: Number of reported crime incidents in uThungulu, averages 2002-2007

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Nu

mb

er

of

rep

ort

ed

cri

me

s


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8.6 Land cover and use

KwaZulu-Natal’s land size is 93,378 km2 (approximately 8 percent of the South African

land). UThungulu’s size is about 9 percent of this; the sixth largest cover after Zululand

(15.9%), uMkhanyakude (13.7%), uThukela (12.1%), Sisonke (11.9%) and

uMgungundlovu (9.6%).

UThungulu’s largest share of the land is covered in unimproved grasslands, followed by

thicket & bushland. The important ‘cultivated’ and ‘forest’ coverages are relatively small

(Figure 8.15).

Figure 8.15: UThungulu land use, 2007

Cultivated temporary,

16.9%

Cultivated permanent,

9.1%

Thicket & bushland (etc),

22.9%

Unimproved grassland,

26.1%

Forest and Woodland, 4.9%Forest plantations, 11.5%

to expand


Given the escalating agricultural (particularly food) prices in the province (the country

and the world), the barren land could be used to expand the productive piece.

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8.6 Social Development

Where is uThungulu ranked with other district municipalities in terms of development?

Figure 8.16 shows average poverty rate, HDI, illiteracy rate and no schooling rate across

districts from 2002 until 2006. UThungulu (at 57.3%) is among the districts with lowest

poverty rate, although still slightly above the provincial average (53.1%). It ranked third

after eThekwini (29.8%) and uMgungundlovu (50.2%). UMzinyathi, uMkhanyakude and

Zululand were districts with the highest poverty rate.

Figure 8.16: Poverty, HDI, Illiteracy and No Schooling Rates, average (2002-07)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

HDI GINI POVERTY


Unlike with its poverty rate, uThungulu is a bit behind in terms of HDI. It is the fourth

highest DM after eThekwini (67.0%), uMgungundlovu (59.0%) and Amajuba (55.0%).

This is not surprising seeing that the district is the fifth lowest in terms of illiteracy rate

(36.8%) and, fourth highest district in terms of no schooling rate (22.1%).

The relatively low poverty rate (although still at 50s) with high level of household income

and high rate of no schooling in uThungulu suggests that there may be more number of

uneducated self-employed people in the district. Hence, if empowered through

education and skills development, one would be able to see a greater reduction in the

number of the poor living in this district.

kwazulu-natal provincial treasury€¦ · 2002 and 2007, moving from a gdp-r of 15,7bn to 18,3bn; a...

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