LECTURE L14INTERACTING WITH TECHNOLOGY

Lessons

▪ Shift from hardware to software ▪ None  of  the  minicomputer  makers  became  a  significant  factor  in  the  desktop  personal  computer  market  

▪ The  PC  was  disruptive  technology  ▪ The  minicomputer  users  were  not  buying  PCs  –  yet  ▪ This  created  a  new  set  of  entrants:  Apple,  Tandy,  Commodore,  and  IBM

Lessons

▪ In  the  late  1980s  the  performance  of  PCs  met  the  needs  of  minicomputer  users  

▪ This  severely  wounded  minicomputer  makers  –  many  of  them  failed  

▪ At  same  time  IBM  succeeded  in  entering  the  PC  market  –  how?  

▪ It  created  an  autonomous  organization  in  Florida  –  far  away  from  it’s  New  York  headquarters  

▪ They  created  the  PC  market  ▪ Then  headquarters  took  control  and  lost  control  to  the  Clones

Lessons

▪ Xerox management did not enter the computer market

▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it”

▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems

▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values

– RPV theory

Lessons

▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers

▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it

▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software

▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money

Lessons

▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft

▪ Took the opportunity with MITS ▪ Focused on software ▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but

Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded ▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh ▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win ▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it

Lessons

▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs

▪ GUI were slow to appear ▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users ▪ Stretched the hardware at the time ▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers ▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance ▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some

niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools

Lessons

▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer ▪ First mass market of Operating Systems

– The Internet helped

▪ Today we have three major PC Operating Systems

– Linux (Unix based) – MacOS (Unix based) – Windows

▪ Biggest OS today are iOS and Android

LECTURE L14INTERACTING WITH TECHNOLOGY

What is the future of Personal Computers?

PC Evolution

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Hardware  era  PC,  Mac

Software  OS  era  Windows,  Office,  MacOS

Internet  Hardware  Connects

IBM MicrosoftApple

2010

Software  web  era  Web  2.0,  Social

2015

Internet  of  things

2020

Apple

Google

SmartphoneWearable

StartupsFacebook

Amazon

20 petaflops, or a quadrillion calculations per second

Miniature Computers

Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality

Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables

Ted video

David Merrill demos Stiftables

The Future of the PC

How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are using Flash memory Driving prices down

Tablets

Wearables, flyables, drivables, scannables…

The Network is the Computer

The Internet cloud

More programs and data is stored on network servers

The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network

Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API

Tom Watson was wrong – there is not room for five computers.It’s only one

What about Moore’s Law?

Shift to multicore started in2005 – new dimension

Move to cloud-core

What about Moore’s Law?

Amazon has over 2.24 million machines in some 87 data centers

$1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud

What about Moore’s Law?

26

Evolution of Computers

Mainframes Mini Computers PC

Time-sharing

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mainframes Mini Computers PC Clients

Time-sharing

Servers

Laptops

Serverrrooms

Smartphones

TabletsMusic

players

Consumer Products

Data centers

Mobile phones

Convergence

Divergence

DecentralisationCentralisation

Mobility

eReadersWearables

IoT

New Business Models

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mainframes Mini Computers PC Clients

Time-sharing

Servers

Laptops

Serverrrooms

Smartphones

TabletsMusic

players

Consumer Products

Data centers

Mobile phones

Convergence

Divergence

DecentralisationCentralisation

Mobility

eReadersWearables

IoT

New Business Models

What next?

Consumer Devices

The computer and the Internet

disappear

Future of PCCloud Computing and home Serves

Everything will be connected: computer, TV, Phone, etc.

Simpler specialised operating systems

Cloud computing

Wireless

Ubiquitous network access

Computers will be smaller and integrated into things

New input methods

Better interfaces

Big Brian, Small Brain

Better friction of devices

Future of the Desktop Metaphor

Xerox Early GUIs

Goal: Emulate theoffice environment

in a computer

Macintosh 1984

First commercialGUI system

Windows 3.0

Business softwaremirgrates to GUIs

Operating Systems Today

Ubuntu

Mac  OS  X  

Windows

More choices, less important

Android

37

Is the desktop metaphor dead?

38

39

Forgot to save your file?

What do people do with computes - desktop, laptop, tablet, smartphone - today?

Communication - talk, messages Reading Take/View Photos Watch Movies Shopping Browse the Internet Read news Write documents, blogs Financial transactions Learning

Microsoft Bill Buxton on Natural User Interfaces

43

“My  specialty  is  people.”    –  Bill  Buxton

45

The Next Device

IBM 5150 - 34 years ago

Macintosh - 31 years ago

49

Dell Desktop PC - Today

Lenovo Carbon X1 Laptop - Today

51

Smartphone Netbooks Laptop Desktop

The world in 2010

Computers

52

iPad 2010 - “The iPad Effect”

The iPad Effect

Multi-touch input

Software Platform – apps

Real OS

The computer just became a consumer device

The iPhone Effect

The iPad Effect

Tablets are disrupting the netbook/laptop/PC marketReplacing eReadersKilling papers and magazines - or saving them?Change in life styleIs this new market disruption also?

What happens when you can access the internet with a $100 device?

Smartphone Netbooks Laptop DesktopTablet

The world in 2015

SOFTWARE  WORK FOCUS

APPS VIEW/BROWSE

ENTERTAIN

APPS  CHECK  NOW!

VIDEO  WATCHING RELAXED

DIGITAL WORLD

From Mary Meeker’s slide deck.

What’s the next device?

Device on your arm

Fitness trackers

64

Glasses

Virtual Reality Headset

Bluedouche

If it look ugly on this guy, it is ugly on you

How can Augmented Reality improve our live and work?

70

Augmented Reality

77

Gesture-control system

Leap Motion

79

Gesture Control Armband

Myo

81

Brian waves as input

Voice Recognition

Family robots

66

Desktop, laptops Mobile, tablets, smartphonesBEFORE Now

67

Desktop metaphor, mousekeyboard

Gesture, audio, touchBEFORE Now

INTERACTING WITH TECHNOLOGY

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