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La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche
Prof. Roberto Setola Unità di Ricerca di AUTOMATICA Facoltà Dipartimentale di Ingegneria
La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche
Modellazione Identificazione Controllo
Problem driven COSERITY Lab Laboratorio Sistemi Complessi & Sicurezza
Ongoing EU Projects
Ongoing National Projects
Collaborations
Past EU Projects
PNMR
SIM
CIA
Cyber
Keiron
Threat - Vulnerability Path Identification for Critical Infrastructures
Developing a comprehensive and multi-dimensional all-hazards catalogue for critical infrastructures
5
Sensors
Pumps
Valves
PLC SCADA (iFix)
HMI
SWITCH
IDS EXPERT SYSTEM
FAULT DETECTION
RISK PREDICTOR
METRIP MEthodological Tools for Railway
Infrastructure Protection
De Cillis, F., De Maggio, M. C., Pragliola, C., & Setola, R. (2013). Analysis of criminal and terrorist related episodes in railway infrastructure scenarios. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 10(2).
7 July 2015 8
DSS operator
CI Operators
Civil
Protection and
Local
Authorities
Simulator
CI response on “system of systems” models
European Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center
Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research NoE
7 July 2015 9
CISIA (terminato)
Minuto 10 Livelli: . ooo
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
PS 2PS 1 SS6SS2SS1 SS3 SS7 SS8SS5SS4
Residential 5 (FU)
Residential 4 (FU)
Residential 1 (FU)
Residential 3 (FU)
Hospital 1 (FU)Hospital 2 (FU)
Residential 2 (FU)
Water Pump 1 (SAU)Water Pump 2 (SAU)
Telco BTS 1 (PAU)
Telco BTS 2 (PAU)
Residential 6 (FU)
Telco BTS Master (SAU)
Electric
ity
Ele
ctrici
ty
Electricity
Electricity
ElectricityElectricity
Ele
ctrici
ty
Ele
ctr
icity
Ele
ctr
icity
Ele
ctric
ity
Ele
ctric
ityE
lectricity
Wate
r
Electricity
Electricity
Com
mun
icat
ion
Com
munic
atio
n
Communication
Com
mun
icat
ion
Water
Ele
ctric
ity
(Real-time) hazard analysis
Direct impact analysis
First order impact analysis
Higher order impact analysis
Persistence Layer.
B1- Monitoring of Natural phenomena
B2 - Prediction of Natural disasters
and Event Detection
B3 - Prediction of physical harm
scenarios
B4 - Estimation of impacts and
consequences
B5 - Support of efficient strategies for crisis scenarios
Risk Assessment Workflow Manager
Information Sharing and Collaboration
Module
Service Manager
GIS Interface
Impact Reporting Interface
Consequence Reporting Interface
Simulation Manager
Security
Data Access Manager
Damage estimate
11
Wealth function
Service Access Wealth (SAW) Indices
Input Output Inoperability (IIM)
i ij
j
a
j ij
i
a
dependency index
influence gain
0 * * *
* 0 * *
* * 0 *
* * * 0
A
Setola, R., De Porcellinis, S., & Sforna, M. (2009). Critical infrastructure dependency assessment using the input–output inoperability model. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 170-178.
• Statistical data • Expert knowledge
Inter-Dependency
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
<1h 1h-6h 6h-12h 12h-24h 24h-48h
Air Transportation ElectricityTLC Wired TLC WirelessWater Management Rail TransportationFinance Naval PortsFuel & Petroleum Grid Natural GasSatellite Communication & Navigation
Fuel &
Petroleum
Air
transportation
Naval Ports
Finance
Dependency level vs. operating conditions and outage duration
F. Conte, G. Oliva and R. Setola, Time varying Input-Output inoperability model, International Journal on
Infrastructure Systems, 2013.
IIM Fuzzy System
To manage uncertainty, the variables can be modelled as fuzzy numbers (believeness degree)
Oliva, Gabriele, Stefano Panzieri, and Roberto Setola. "Discrete-time linear systems with fuzzy dynamics." Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems 27.3 (2014): 1129-1141.
Worst case
Best case
Most believed case
Oliva, Gabriele, Stefano Panzieri, and Roberto Setola. "Distributed consensus under ambiguous information." International Journal of System of Systems Engineering 4.1 (2013): 55-78.
Criticality map Dependency index
Influence gain
Oliva, G., Setola, R., & Barker, K. (2014). Fuzzy Importance Measures for Ranking Key Interdependent Sectors Under Uncertainty. Reliability, IEEE Transactions on, 42-57.
7/2/2015 19 In fault
Working
January 31, 2014
July 10, 2015 20
# impacted people 65+
Electrical System
7/2/2015 21
ACEA Rome HT/MT/LT Control Room