labor market information office minnesota’s economic status report gwdc quarterly meeting duluth,...
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Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Minnesota’s Economic Status Report
GWDC Quarterly MeetingDuluth, August 2009
Oriane CasaleAssistant Director
Labor Market Information OfficeDEED
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
The recession continues…
Minnesota’s economy began to slow before nation
Weakness has been across all sectorsLabor market slack has reached historic
highsForecasts are of continued labor market
weakness despite evidence of strengthening economy
Employment Level (March 2001 = 100)
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
- Recession -
- Recession -
US
MN
TC
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Employment since the last recession
4 years
47,000 job gap
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Job losses have been widespread …Over The Year (June) Employment Growth By Industry Sector (NSA)
OTY Job Change
OTY Growth Rate (%)
US OTY Growth
Rate Total Non-Farm Employment -112,020 -4.0 -4.2
Logging & Mining -2,033 -31.8 -7.3 Construction -19,221 -15.7 -13.8 Manufacturing -39,552 -11.6 -12.3 Trade, Transport. & Utilities -18,709 -3.5 -4.6 Information -2,346 -4.0 -5.6 Financial Activities -1,578 -0.9 -5.2 Prof. & Business Services -32,932 -9.9 -6.9 Ed. & Health Services 16,183 3.7 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality -9,394 -3.6 -2.4 Other Services -4,932 -4.1 -2.0 Government 2,494 0.6 0.1
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
MN employment around past cycle peaks
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Months Before(-)/Since(+) Peak
1991
2001
1982
Post-War Average
Current Recession
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
More People Filing for Unemployment Benefits …
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Claims for UI
Claims Due to Permanent Separation
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
UI Beneficiaries
Exhaustees
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
… and receiving and exhausting benefits
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Jobseekers also face diminished job vacancies
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
US JOLTS
MN JVS
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
The short run bottom line? Minnesota lost 100,000 jobs between second
quarter 2008 and second quarter 2009. Minnesota has reached all time highs in UI, at
44,000 new claims in May and 28,000 new claims due to permanent separations in February.
If current forecasts are accurate, Minnesota will:Lose 21,000 jobs between second quarter 2009 and
second quarter 2010 for a total of 121,000 jobs lost over two years.
Add an additional 50,000+ unemployed persons to the current 250,000.
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Job Declines = Rising Unemployment Rates
Source: Global Insight US Economic Outlook, July 2009
Labor Market Information Officewww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
New LMI Tools and Research•Regional Website - http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/rws/ - compares counties, EDRs, Planning Regions and state. Links to time series data and graphs comparing regions.
•Research Grant Opportunities –
•Green Skills Research: Leverage Job Vacancy Survey to identify green vacancies. Follow-up survey with employers to obtain detailed information on skills requirements and shortages in green occupations. Begin fall round of JVS. Initial findings in spring 2010.
•Workforce Locator Tool for prospective employers, site locators and economic developers. Leverage existing program data (UI claims, DW program, MinnesotaWorks) to describe workforce in a radius search around a point. Joint project with WI and IA.
•Skills Transferability Tool will help dislocated workers find occupations matching their skills and experience. Should be available October 2009.