labour force survey boukje janssen, 16-05-2013. contents lfs design lfs figures monthly estimates...
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Labour Force SurveyBoukje Janssen, 16-05-2013
Contents
• LFS Design• LFS Figures• Monthly Estimates with Time Series Models• Redesign LFS• Remote Acces Files > future developments
Labour Force Survey 2
Labour Force Survey 3
Panel Design LFS
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Labour Force Survey 4
Quarterly Estimates
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Respons 15-64: E,d,c,b,a ~ 80 thousand persons
Labour Force Survey 5
Yearly Estimates
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Average of 4 estimates of ~ 80 thousand persons
Labour Force Survey 6
Yearly Estimates per Wave
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Respons 15-64: c,d,e,f ~ 55 thousand persons
Labour Force Survey 7
Quarterly Flow Estimates
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Respons 15-64: e,d,c,b ~ 55 thousand persons
Yearly Flow Estimates
Labour Force Survey 8
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Respons 15-64: a,b,c,d ~ 55 thousand persons
Monthly Estimates
Labour Force Survey 9
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave
1Web/Tel/F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Five series of estimates
Structural Time Series Model
What we do with STM:
Improve estimates with sample data from the past
Explicit modelling of panel bias
Modelling autocorrelation between waves
Labour Force Survey 10
Month t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t
Wave
1 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t
2 t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3
3 t-10 t-9 t-8 t-7 t-6
4 t-13 t-12 t-11 t-10 t-9
5 t-16 t-15 t-14 t-13 t-12
Monthly Estimates by STM
Labour Force Survey 11
= Monthly estimates STM (trend and including seasonal effect)
GREG estimates each month each wave
(panel) Bias
Sampling error (variance, autocorrelation)
+
-
-
Monthly Figures
Labour Force Survey 12
Consistency
Labour Force Survey 13
Employed and unemployed labour force:
Monthly estimates
=
Quarterly estimates
=
Yearly estimates
=
Flow estimates (start- and end-point)
Redesign LFS
Labour Force Survey 14
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1 F2F A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Before 2010:
Redesign LFS
Labour Force Survey 15
2010 - 2012
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1 F2F/Tel A B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Redesign LFS
Labour Force Survey 16
2012 - …
Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Wave1 Web/F2F/TelA B C D E F G H I J K L2 Tel × a b c d e f g h i j k3 Tel × × a b c d e f g h i j4 Tel × × × a b c d e f g h i5 Tel × × × × a b c d e f g h
Remote Acces Files > future developments
• Timeliness (quarterly)
• More comparable with files for CBS users e.g. classifications for publication
• Linked to other sources (registrations etc.)
Labour Force Survey 17
Questions ??