Lake of the Woods Total Maximum Daily Load

Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Lake of the Woods Soil and Water Conservation

District RESPEC

Agenda 9:30 Welcome, Introductions

9:40 Why is this happening, what’s the goal, why get involved?

10:00 Overview of the TMDL Project

10:30 Project partners: roles / timelines

10:50 How can you get involved?

11:10 Collaboration: local, regional and int’l levels

11:20 Q&A, feedback, and next steps

11:30 Adjourn

Goals of the Meeting 1. Inform natural resource agency staff

about the project and process

2. Request voluntary participation

Lake of the Woods Nutrient Total Maximum Daily Load

(TMDL) Study

Cary Hernandez Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

Clean Water Act

• Federal Clean Water Act ’72 • Framework to protect and restore water quality

– Set Standards – Designate beneficial uses – Assess waters – Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) study for impaired

waters – Restoration strategies

6

What is a TMDL?

• Definition • Process • Analysis

Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)

• Total Maximum Daily Load is the extent to

which a body of water is able to assimilate or tolerate a pollutant and still maintain its water quality standards.

The TMDL Process

Lake of the Woods – Aug. 2006

In 2008, Lake of the Woods was placed on the federal 303 (d) list as impaired for aquatic recreation due to excess nutrients.

Excess Nutrients

• Data must show exceedances of two of the following three standards

1. Total Phosphorus (causal factor) 2. Chlorophyll- a (response variable) 3. Secchi disk (response variable)

Water Quality Standards

• Total Phosphorus – less than 30 µg/L • Chlorophyll-a - less than 9 µg/L • Secchi disk - not less than 2.0 meters

The TMDL Process

TMDL Analysis

• A TMDL is the sum of the loads from individual point sources, nonpoint sources and natural background, with an additional loading allowance for a margin of safety.

Pre-TMDL Research Began in 2009

• USGS - Water Quality and Quantity Sampling and Monitoring (complete)

• SCSU – BATHTUB/FLUX Modeling (lake) • RESPEC – HSPF Modeling (watersheds) • NRRI - Paleolimnology Assessment (complete) • SMM - Historical Nutrient Budget Study • UofM - Land Use Mapping and Analysis (complete) • UW-Stout Internal Phosphorus Loading Sources

(complete) • UW-Stout Sediment Phosphorus Dynamics (complete)

USGS Sampling Sites

• LOW is divided into 5 segments for the phosphorus model •Segments based on differences in water quality, shape, and structure of the lake’s basins. •4 Mile Bay •Big Traverse + Buffalo Bays •Muskeg Bay •Sabaskong + NE Big Trav. •Little Traverse + NWA (Northwest Angle)

Phosphorus loads to LoW are decreasing

Rainy River in the 1950’s, mats of sawdust and paper mill effluent were abundant (MDH photo)

Hargan, Paterson, Dillon 2011 J. Great Lakes Res 37.

Diatom-inferred phosphorus (µg/L)

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1850

1900

1950

2000

DI−TP (µg/L)

Big Traverse 3Big Traverse 4MuskegSabaskongLittle TraverseBig NarrowsBuffalo

Big Narrows

Muskeg

Sabaskong

Little Traverse

Big Traverse 3

Big Traverse 4Buffalo

Courtesy of E. Rieve, NRRI, UMD

- 35

- 30

- 25

- 20

- 15

- 10

- 5

0

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Dep

th b

elow

sed

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t int

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ce (c

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P fraction (mg/g)

Total P

Biologically-labile P (Subject to recycling)

Excess P (Gross P deposition > P burial)

P has accumulated in excess of burial, resulting in a modest surface concentration peak that can contribute to internal P loading (both Total and Ortho P )

Courtesy of Dr. William James, U W Stout

Pre-TMDL Study Results

• 517 metric tons of P per year outflow

• 629 metric tons of P per year retained

The Lake does occasionally stratify; this is a “big deal”

A ~ 9 mph sustained wind is required to fully mix the stratified water column (SMM data, M. Edlund)

Next Steps

• MPCA, in partnership with LoW SWCD and RESPEC, is conducting a TMDL study of the Lake of the Woods’ excess nutrient loading.

• Goals of the TMDL Study:

(1) identify water quality goals for the Minnesota portions of the LOW/Rainy River Watershed;

(2) recommend nutrient allocations to achieve TMDLs; and (3) provide opportunities for stakeholders to engage in the process of watershed-management planning to adopt protection and restoration practices.

• The TMDL study will also result in a Restoration Strategy.

Questions/Discussion

Julie.blackburn@respec.com

OVERVIEW OF LOTW TMDL PROJECT: TMDL STUDY AND RESTORATION PLAN October 2, 2015

Project Goals

Technical: • Identify water quality standards and goals for the

Minnesota portion of the LOTW/Rainy River watershed

• Recommend nutrient allocations to achieve total maximum daily loads where waters do not meet water quality standards

• Provide opportunities for stakeholders and local communities to engage in planning

Kitchen table; Coffee shop: • Work together to diagnose health issues, determine

reasonable and achievable goals, develop plan to meet goals, implement plan.

Steps at a Glance

1. Refine existing watershed and in-lake models • Extend HSPF watershed model through 2014 • Update BATHTUB lake model through 2014

2. Develop individual components of the TMDL study • Sources, capacity, reasonable load reductions

and reduction strategies, seasonal variation, monitoring plan, future growth

3. Draft the report; Prepare for official public noticing

4. Develop the restoration strategy

Objective 1: Refine existing in-lake and watershed models

• HSPF Watershed Model • Entire Rainy Basin • 1996-2009 calibrated model • Update through 2014 • Determines watershed loading • Provides inputs to BATHTUB model

• BATHTUB Lake Model

• 2012 model • Update through 2014 • Diagnoses condition of lake • Evaluate management options by

predicting lake response

Vetted for over 40 Years Core watershed in EPA BASINS and USACE

Watershed Modeling System (WMS) Continuous simulation model Represents complex multi-land use watersheds Land surface and subsurface hydrology and quality

processes Simulates hydraulics and water-quality processes Multiple pollutants

• Temperature, Sediment, Nutrients, Algal Species, Dissolved Oxygen, Chloride, Metals, etc.

Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF)

HSPF Overview

Meteorological data applied to subwatersheds in meteorological zones

Cropland Wetlands Urban Forest Pasture

Overland & Subsurface

Flows & Loads

Parameterization based on land class categories in each

meteorological zone

• Precipitation • Air Temperature • Evaporation • Solar Radiation • Cloud Cover • Wind • Dew Point

Model Land Classes

Model Parameterization:

Infiltration Cover Shade

Upper/lower zone storage Groundwater recession

Ice parameters Interception storage

Interflow Manning’s n Vegetation

Accumulation Rates Erodibility

Etc.

BMP Module Implementation Plan

Development Climate Assessment Tool

2009 HSPF Model Development: Overview

• 26,000 square miles

• ~ 615 HUC 12s

• >30,000 Waterbodies

• 9 Linked HSPF models

2009 Model Development: Data

• Meteorological • Precipitation (63 sites) • Air Temperature (33 sites) • Evapotranspiration (13 sites) • Cloud Cover (13 sites) • Dew Point (16 sites) • Solar Radiation (13 sites) • Wind Speed (13 sites)

• Point Sources • 45 sites

• Atmospheric Deposition • Nitrogen and Phosphorus

• Cross Sections • 79 locations

• Bathymetry • 203 lakes

• Discharge • 24 stations

• Water Quality • 344 sties spanning 134

reaches/lakes

2009 Model Development : Segmentation

• Subwatersheds • MN DNR Level 7

watersheds • Canada – ArcHydro • 1022 Total

• Additional breaks • TMDL endpoints • Gaging stations • Model Lakes

• Drainage Network • 841 Reaches • 290 Lakes

• Lake Discharge • Rainy Lake outlet • Lac la Croix outlet • Nett Lake outlet • Farm Lake outlet • Birch Lake outlet • Laseine Lake outlet • Kabetogama Lake

outlet

2009 HSPF Model: Calibration

Modeling Period • 1995 – 2009 • Simulated 1995 to adjust to existing conditions

Calibration strategy • Iterative process • Consistency in Parameters

Constituents • Flow • Temperature • Sediment • Nutrients • Dissolved Oxygen • Phytoplankton and Benthic Algae

2009 HSPF Model: Phosphorus Loading • ~ 75 % of Total Phosphorus was in the organic form • Results are comparable to estimates provided by

Hargan et. al.

2009 HSPF Model: Phosphorus Loadings from Landuse

2009 HSPF Model: Phosphorus Loadings - Subwatersheds

RESPEC HSPF QAQC Process

BATHTUB Model • Initial Development in the early 1980s by William W.

Walker, PhD.

• Based on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir data.

• Combines mass-balance with empirical relations to diagnose and predict trophic responses.

• The population of reservoirs used for development is key to understanding/interpreting the BATHTUB relations.

Completely Mixed, Steady State Mass Balance (Outputs = Inputs – Storage)

D. Soballe, US COE

BATHTUB Lake Modeling System

• Steady state water quality model • Designed to relate eutrophication symptoms to

external nutrient loadings, hydrology, and lake morphometry

• Predicts lake responses to nutrient loadings on a yearly basis or over the growing season

• Partitions dissolved versus particulate nutrients in watershed loading

• Seasonal variation in loadings and morphometry

• Can be used to predict the effects of future changes in external nutrient loading

• Diagnose current condition – Evaluate existing information – information gaps. – Rapid/rough assessment. – Establish Baseline. – Identify problem sources.

– Evaluate potential for correction/management. • Lay groundwork for more sophisticated modeling

– Design for specific management actions

• For MPCA, BATHTUB and has proven to be an effective tool; routinely used for TMDLs

• Focus on TP, driver of productivity & impaired water listings • It models seasonal average conditions, but can predict algae bloom

frequencies / seasonal maximums

Why Use BATHTUB?

D. Soballe, US COE

• 5 segments • 4 Mile Bay • Big Traverse + Buffalo • Muskeg Bay • Sabaskong + NE Big

Trav. • Little Traverse + NWA

• Little Traverse outlets are

logical management end-point for TMDL study

• Model area = 72% of LOW’s surface area and 85% of the drainage basin

2012 BATHTUB Model

2012 BATHTUB Model • BATHTUB predicts an annual phosphorus load of

~ 1150 metric tons in modeled area • Internal loading and the Rainy River remain

significant sources of TP

Objective 2: Develop individual TMDL Components

• HSPF Watershed Model • Entire Rainy Basin • 1996-2009 calibrated model • Update through 2014 • Determines watershed loading • Provides inputs to BATHTUB model

• BATHTUB Lake Model

• 2012 model • Update through 2014 • Diagnoses condition of lake • Evaluate management options by

predicting lake response

Objective 2: Develop individual TMDL components

• Reasonable Assurance

• Future growth or sources

• Seasonal Variation

• Monitoring Plan

Objective 3: Develop draft TMDL report • Section1 – Project Overview • Section 2 – Applicable Water Quality Standards • Section 3 – Watershed and Waterbody

Characterization • Section 4 – TMDL Development • Section 5 – Reasonable Assurance • Section 6 – Monitoring Plan • Section 7 – Implementation Strategy Summary • Section 8 – Public Participation Overview • Section 9 – Literature Cited

Objective 4: Develop the watershed restoration and protection strategy • Timeline overlaps with TMDL study

and draft document development • Stakeholder involvement is key to

selecting strategies • Use a variety of tools to evaluate

strategies for cost/benefit and long-term impact • Terrain analysis • Modeling • HSPF SAM

• Develop reasonable and measurable implementation plan that is supported and adopted

PROJECT PARTNERS, ROLES, TIMELINE

Project Team Organizational Chart

RESPEC Team

Emily Javens Restoration, BMPs

– Former Soil and Water Conservation District employee – Targeted practices in rural, urban, and lakeshore sectors – Outreach and education; writing

Bruce Wilson TMDL Expert

– Senior Scientist with 35+ years lake and stream experience – Assisted in development of lake nutrient standards – Provided technical support on over 50 lake and river

restoration projects

Julie Blackburn Project Manager

– Former Assistant Director for BWSR – Comprehensive Watershed Management Planning – TMDLs, Watershed Assessment and Implementation – Outreach, facilitation, stakeholder involvement

RESPEC Team

Lee Rosen Project Management

Chris Lupo HSPF Modeler

–HSPF Model Expert –Data Analysis; Data Interpretation –Hydraulics and Hydrology

– Hydrology and Hydraulics – Water-Quality BMP Design – 8 years Engineering, Planning and Design Experience

Geoff Kraemer Modeling and Restoration

– BATHTUB Modeling; Data Analysis – Watershed Restoration – Writing

MPCA Project Team Members • Cary Hernandez: Project Manager • Pat Carey: Watershed Supervisor • Jesse Anderson: Water Quality Monitoring; TMDL • Chuck Regan: HSPF Modeling • Mike Kennedy: Basin HUCs watershed project

manager, civic engagement • Suzanne Hanson: MPCA Regional Manager,

represents MPCA on various boards

LOTW SWCD Project Team Members • Mike Hirst: Project Manager • Josh Stromlund: SWCD; Land and Water Planning

Director

Project Timeline

• By mid-November 2015 • Update HSPF and BATHTUB models

• October 2015-April 2016 • Develop individual components of the TMDL Study

• February – December 2016 • Develop draft TMDL Report

• June 2016 – June 2017 • Develop restoration plan

• January – June 2017 • Prepare TMDL Report for Official Public Notice of

Comment Period

Project Timeline: Gannt

Year

J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M JObjective 1:HSPF and BATHTUB Models updated

X X X X X X

Objective 2:Individual TMDL Components Developed

X X X X X X X

Objective 3:TMDL Draft Developed X X X X X X X X X X XTMDL Prepared for Public Comment

X X X X X X X

Objective 4:Restoration Plan Development

X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Objective 5:Organizational Meeting XTechnical Advisory Cmte Mtgs X X X X X X X X X X X XCivic Engagement X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

2015 Year 20172016

How can you get involved

• Stay up-to-date on watershed activities • Check out the Lake of the Woods Soil and Water

Conservation District’s website • Participate in stakeholder opportunities

• Two rounds of public meetings; three meetings each round

• Connect us to your organization • Inform of project; request project team member

present update • Submit updates to local newsletter

• Suggest an article for a local publication • Offer your expertise and volunteer to be a member

of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)

Technical Advisory Committee

• 6-10 people representing technical expertise in: • Hydrology, limnology, data analysis, modeling

• Provide expert advise, feedback, and guidance to project team

• Two-hour meetings every other month • Some homework (meeting preparation; critical

review of TMDL draft) • Commitment to the two-year process • Willing to be listed as a member of the TAC

Please consider joining the TAC to lend

your expertise to this important project!

Julie Blackburn

Julie.Blackburn@respec.com 651.605.5705

Bi-National Coordination

10 plus years of partnerships and engagement

IJC Watershed Board and WQ Plan of Study June 2010: IJC Reference IJC appoints Task Force to study watershed

governance and priority issues

Jan 2012: IJC submits Task Force report to the U.S. and Canada on binational water management

Summer 2012: U.S. and Canada task IJC to form new International Watershed Board and develop a Plan of Study to address priority issues

April 2013: IJC appoints International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board

January 2014: IJC appoints bi-national task force to develop Lake of the Woods Basin Water Quality Plan of Study

January 2015: IJC submits Plan of Study to DFATD and U.S. State Dept., with strong recommendation to undertake all 32 projects

Governance / Implementation Platform

Int’l Multi-Agency Arrangement

Int’l Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board

Rainy-Namakan Water Levels Committee

20 Members – U.S. & Canada: • Agencies (federal, state/provincial) • First Nations, Métis and U.S. Tribes • Public members

• Platform for research & management collaboration • Focus: nutrients, algae, erosion, AIS • 10 Signatories (a.k.a. – Working Group)

• Acts independently – authority delegated from Board

CAG

IAG

U.S. EPA Red Lake Band MDNR MPCA Koochiching SWCD

Environment Canada OMNRF OMOECC MB WS LOWWSF

Other Committees • Water Quality Plan of Study • Water Quality Reporting • Outreach / Communications

Int’l LoW Control Board

Int’l LoW Control Board

1056 ft

• LoW levels • Engineering advice to RNWLC

Lake of the Woods Control Board 1061 ft

• Technical Advisory Committee Working Group Agencies + Others

Progress: International Watershed Coordination

• Established 2012 – partnership of Foundation, MPCA, MB CWS, and IJC

• Glue and two-way connection between groups / levels:

• Binational: watershed (IJC) • Regional: research & management • Local: agencies & groups

working on watershed activities

Next Steps • WebEx Organizational Meeting 10/2/2015 • Technical Advisory Committee Formed • Public Participation and Outreach

• Two rounds of public meetings held in 3 locations each

• Refinement of Existing Models • Develop TMDL and Report • Develop Restoration Strategy

Questions / Discussion