1. Estimating the effects on distributions of interactions between climate and habitat Bob O'Hara BiK-F Frankfurt am Main Germany This talk athttp://www.slideshare.net/oharar/lammi2011

2. 3. Species do complicated things The bustards http://www.flickr.com/photos/47456200@N04/4361912613/ 4. We should add these to our models 5. How SDMs Are Run Now Climate Variables 6. Trying to peer inside the box 7. Does habitat use change with climate? 8. Can we tell from distribution data? Database of UK butterfly records 2000 10km x 10km squares 9. Speckled Wood Butterfly Photo: bramblejumgle http://www.flickr.com/photos/bramblejungle/2732259482/ 10. Orange Tip 11. Climate & Habitat

12 habitat types 12. Water 13. Coastal 14. Bog 15. Heath 16. Montane 17. Broad-leaf Woodland 18. Coniferous Woodland 19. Arable 20. Grassland 21. Bracken 22. Urban 23. Bare Ground

3 climate types

• GDD5 : Growing Degree Days above 5 C 24. MTCO : Mean Temperature of Coldest Month 25. March-August rainfall

Latitude 26. Longitude

27. Modelling strategy Use an observation model to estimate actual presence 28. Modelling strategy Climate Variables Habitat Cold Hot Fit logistic regression to explain presences Habitat Effect 29. Climate Habitat Interactions Habitat Climate 1 2 3 A B Habitat 1 2 3 Climate A B 30. Handles to be turned To remove the variables that have little effect Variable Selection MCMC (OpenBUGS) 31. Climate and Habitat Effects 32. Climate and Habitat Effects 33. The effect of adding coniferous forest to different parts of the UK Reduces presence Improves presence 34. Changing Climate GDD 5 Temperature in coldest month Summer Rainfall 35. Orange Tip 36. Effects of adding grassland for the Orange Tip Grassland Bare Ground 37. Effects of Increasing GDD5 38. Some obvious conclusions

Might be better to improve marginal habitat

(or marginal weather)

Habitat use at range margins can be different

39. Thank you 40. Coniferous Woodland Effects