land of the spooky tooky owl
DESCRIPTION
Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl. Project by: Colin Curwen-McAdams Kyle Avery Spencer Johnson Stephanie Ostrander. Who Says What?. What is the growth rate of the Spooky Tooky Owls? When will the Owls meet their demise?. University Biology Students. Annual Growth Rate: 97.6% - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl
Project by:
Colin Curwen-McAdams
Kyle Avery
Spencer Johnson
Stephanie Ostrander
Who Says What?• What is the growth rate of the Spooky
Tooky Owls?
• When will the Owls meet their demise?
University Biology Students
• Annual Growth Rate: 97.6%
• Time before population crash: 356.5 years
The Government
• Growth Rate: 86.8%
• Crashes after: 66.4 years
The Sierra Club
• Growth Rate: 65.4%
• Crash after: 22.1 years
What affects Lambda the most?
• Changing the Adult Survival Probability
• Least Sensitive Factors:– Age at which start breeding– Female Fecundity Rates
Momma Owl
Maximum Reproduction Age(or, the previous LHS over the result of one minus the result of the result of s divided by lambda to the power of MRA minus alpha plus 1.)
• A new factor: “W”• What happens to growth
rates and extinction dates?
Republicans = 10
Democrats = 15
Republicans
Without W W = 10
• University Biologists– Growth Rate = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356
• Gov’t– Growth Rate = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66
• Sierra Club– Growth rate = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22
• University Biologists– G. R. < 0.9500001– Pop. Crash < 183
• Gov’t– G. R. < 0.8500001– Pop. Crash < 57
• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21
Democrats
Without W W = 15
• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356
• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66
• Sierra Club– G. R. = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22
• University Biologists– G. R. < 0.9500001– Pop. Crash < 183
• Gov’t– G. R. < 0.8500001– Pop. Crash < 57
• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21
What? Both parties are wrong?
• LHS made up of three terms
• Two terms are exponential
• W always greater than alpha
• If w – a is small, two terms begin to cancel and
• Nonsense!
Sparky’s Legacy
Without W W = 60
• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356
• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66
• Sierra Club– G. R. = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22
• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.96683– Pop. Crash = 278
• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.85725– Pop. Crash = 60
• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21
Equilibrium Occupancy
How many Starbucks can we build?
Hate Triangle?
VS.The Government
The Sierra Club
U of O Scientists
H : Habitable Area
=
=
Habitable50%
Not habitable50%
Habitable25%
Not habitable75%
Habitable38%
Not habitable
62%
P : Observed Equilibrium Occupancy
Inhabited40%
Uninhabited60%
Inhabited70%
uninhabited30%
Inhabited20%
uninhabited80%
=
=
University of Oregon Scientists
• k = 0.772 ± .0589• p = 64.92%
when h=65%
• ho= 38%
• hcritical = 22.8%
31.64% - 10% chance
(1.5σ)• 7% more to develop
The Government
• k = 0.85 ± .0725• p = 76.92%
when h=65%
• ho= 50%
• hcritical = 15%
25.88% - 10% chance
(1.5σ)• 24% more to develop
The Sierra Club
• k = 0.8 ± .0316• p = 69.23%
when h=65%
• ho= 25%
• hcritical = 20%
24.74% - 10% chance
(1.5σ)• <1% more to develop
Progress
building stuff, selling shit, killing things
Stage 1
Stage 2
• Jobs and stuff
• Good, manly work
• Trees to build stuff for stage 5
Stage 3
• Landscape not all cluttered up with trees
Stage 4
+
Decisions made regardless of science
Stage 5
Create more useful habitat
Stage 6
• What about the Spooky Tooky?
• Why doesn’t this smug bastard get a job?
Stage 7
Okay, what just happened?
• Wide variability of studies makes it impossible to make an informed decision
• Errors surrounding k value make it hard to know how much can be developed
• Cash rules everything around us
What do we do?
• Following the Sierra Club study doesn’t allow for development
• University Study allows for 7%, so we can fit some suburbs
• Government study allows for 24% - which may lead to the extinction of the Spooky Tooky, but allows for the proliferation of a very different species
Stage 8
Fair Trade