Land Use Change Decisionsin Southern MyanmarModelling driving forces with Bayesian networks

Thomas HugMaster ThesisAugust 2017

Land Use Change in Myanmar

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Author: Thomas Hug

thomashug@alumni.ethz.ch

11-922-192

Adviser: Dr. Enrico Celio

Supervision: Prof. Dr. Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

Submission: 1st September 2017

Suggested Citation: Hug Thomas (2017): Land Use Change Decisions in Southern Myanmar – Modelling driv

ing forces with Bayesian networks. Master thesis. Institute for Spatial and Landscape

Development. ETHZ. Zürich

Title photo: Oil palm trees and a draft of the Bayesian network (author’s own)

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Kurzfassung

ABSTRACT

The south of Myanmar is a dynamic region where

land use change is influenced by a wide range of factors.

Bayesian networks offer the possibility to elaborate and

quantify relations between such factors. Being able to

process quantitative and qualitative data on different

levels of certainty makes Bayesian networks a suitable

instrument to model the region. Many possible develop-

ments of the future situation in Myanmar remain barely

known and challenge prediction making.

We model agricultural land use change decisions

based on the beliefs of local farmers and investors.

Three villages in Myanmar’s tropical south were used to

gather data. The predominant spread of perennial crops

in the area requires a long modelling horizon.

To develop a basic understanding of the environment

in Myanmar, literature review and earlier field missions’

interviews were analysed. Interviews and workshops

were conducted in Myanmar to establish the network.

Further, workshops and questionnaires were used to

quantify the relations found. As farmers tend to be reluc-

tant about revealing any future changes, decision-mak-

ing theory and imaginary scenarios were applied to ap-

proximate possible behaviours.

We found different variables from economic, social,

personal and biological type to play a role. In the net-

work they serve as a basic structure for the network.

The influence of the owner type and government inter-

ventions were analysed as characteristic variables of

the region, as these factors have strongly influenced

land use changes in the past.

A sensitivity analysis shows which drivers are most

influential on land use change decisions in Myanmar.

Further evaluations illustrate the farmer’s differing per-

ceptions of the individual crops.

The resulting findings are of use to understand the

background of land transformation in southern Myan-

mar. Establishing a network, future developments can

be modelled and the decision-making simulated.

KURZFASSUNG

Der Süden Myanmars liegt in einer dynamischen

Region, wo Landumnutzungen von verschiedensten

Faktoren beeinflusst werden. Bayes Netzwerke bieten

die Möglichkeit, solche Faktoren auszuarbeiten und zu

quantifizieren. Die kombinierte Integration von sowohl

qualitativen als auch quantitativen Datengrundlagen

prädestiniert Bayes Netzwerke als Instrument zur Mo-

dellierung dieser Region. Viele zukünftige Entwicklun-

gen sind heute noch nicht absehbar.

In dieser Arbeit werden landwirtschaftliche Landum-

nutzungsentscheide auf Basis von Ansichten von lokalen

Bauern und Investoren modelliert. Der Dörfer in Myan-

mars Süden dienten als Fallbeispiele. Die überwiegen-

de Verbreitung von langlebigen Pflanzen erfordert einen

langen Modellierungshorizont.

Um ein grundsätzliches Verständnis der Situation

in Myanmar aufzubauen, Literatur und Interviews aus

früheren Begehungen wurden analysiert. Weitere In-

terviews und Workshops wurden vor Ort durchgeführt,

um das Netzwerk aufzubauen. Mithilfe von Workshops

und Fragebögen wurden die gefundenen Beziehungen

quantifiziert. Da die Bauern sich nur äusserst zurück-

haltend über zukünftige Änderungen äusserten, wurde

Entscheidungstheorie und imaginäre Situationen zur

Annäherung verwendet.

Es wurden Faktoren aus ökonomischen, sozialen,

persönlichen und biologischen Bereichen gefunden.

Diese dienen als Rückgrat des Netzwerks, das von cha-

rakteristischen Elementen ergänzt werden. Dazu zählen

etwa die Art des Besitzers oder mögliche staatliche In-

terventionen.

Mit einer Sensitivitätsanalyse wurden die Relevanz

von Faktoren für Landumnutzungsentscheide beurteilt.

Weitere Untersuchungen zeigten die unterschiedliche

Wahrnehmung der Bauern von den spezifischen Pflan-

zen.

Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse dienen dem besse-

ren Verständnis von Landumnutzungen in Myanmar.

Zukünftige Entwicklungen können auf des Netzwerks

Basis abgeschätzt werden.

Land Use Change in Myanmar

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ABBREVIATIONS

BN Bayesian network

CDE Centre for Development and Environment (University Bern)

CF Community Forest

CPT Conditional Probability Table

EERi Environmental and Economics Research Institute (Myanmar)

GPD Gross domestic product

KNU Karen National Union

LUC Land Use Change

LU Land Use

NLD National League for Democracy

PLUS Institute for Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems (ETH Zurich)

r4d Research for development

TNR Taninthayi Nature Reserve

WP Work packages

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many people have contributed to this thesis becoming what it is now. These people I’d like to thank for their

support. At first, without Prof. Dr. Adrienne Grêt-Regamey and her involvement in the research project this thesis

and my personal experiences would not have been possible. An important person in Zurich was Enrico Celio, who

supported me with his knowledge and knew how to motivate me with new ideas, when things started getting com-

plicated. Further, I’d like to thank Manuel Sudau for his administrative effort in coordinating all the papers written

at the institute and having an open ear for any matters.

I’d like to express my special gratitude to all the interviewees in Myanmar who gave their time to contribute to this

research project. It is not self-evident for so many people to be available for questioning, especially if they have work

on their plots to do. In Myanmar I joined a set up team who made me feel very welcome, which eases the work in a

foreign country. Their support in sharing knowledge, organising transports and accommodations was indispensable

and a field trip without unthinkable.

Special thanks goes to my assistant in Myanmar Nuam Cing. Without her almost endless patience in translating

my ideas and considering the changing plans, I would not have been able to gather all the information we have now.

As a translator, but also in finding suitable interviewees and supporting my work she did a very good job and was a

big help.

Lastly I’d like to thank no less all the people surrounding me during my thesis and my whole time at ETH. They

had an open and constructive ear when I needed to discuss my intentions and ideas and a helping hand when need-

ed. All these people – from family and friends, to the librarian or secretaries – have contributed a lot to my work and

I’m very grateful for their support. Thank you!

Thomas Hug Zurich, 30th August 2017

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Table of contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1

1.1 CONTEXT 1

1.2 LAND USE CHANGE 1

1.3 RESEARCH 11.3.1 Research Gap ..........................................................................................................................................21.3.2 Research Questions ................................................................................................................................2

2 METHODS ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3

2.1 CASE STUDY AREA 32.1.1 Historic Background ................................................................................................................................32.1.2 Case Study Sites ......................................................................................................................................42.1.3 Land Policy ..............................................................................................................................................52.1.4 Geographic Characteristics ....................................................................................................................6

2.2 WORKFLOW 6

2.3 BAYESIAN NETWORKS 82.3.1 General Introduction ...............................................................................................................................82.3.2 Bayesian Networks and LUC ...................................................................................................................82.3.3 Terms .......................................................................................................................................................8

2.4 NETWORK FRAMING 82.4.1 Modelling Borders ...................................................................................................................................82.4.2 Level of Detail ..........................................................................................................................................92.4.3 Selection of Interviewees ........................................................................................................................92.4.4 First drafting round .................................................................................................................................9

2.5 STRUCTURE ELABORATION 92.5.1 Explorative Interviews with Framers ......................................................................................................92.5.2 Explorative Interviews with Investors ...................................................................................................102.5.3 Workshop ...............................................................................................................................................10

2.6 QUANTIFICATION 112.6.1 Questionnaires ......................................................................................................................................112.6.2 Imaginary situations ..............................................................................................................................112.6.3 Past changes .........................................................................................................................................122.6.4 Logical assumptions .............................................................................................................................122.6.5 Data acquisition and processing ..........................................................................................................13

2.7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 14

3 RESULTS ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15

3.1 DECISION MAKERS 15

3.2 VARIABLES 15

Land Use Change in Myanmar

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3.2.1 Target Variable ..............................................................................................................................163.2.2 Basic Variables ..............................................................................................................................173.2.3 Intermediate Variables ..................................................................................................................213.2.4 Characteristic Variables ................................................................................................................223.2.5 Rejected Variables .........................................................................................................................23

3.3 STRUCTURE 243.3.1 Drafting Steps................................................................................................................................243.3.2 Basic Structure..............................................................................................................................253.3.3 Characteristic Branches ...............................................................................................................26

3.4 DATA ANALYSIS 27

3.5 TIME STEPS 28

3.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 293.6.1 Future Land Use ............................................................................................................................293.6.2 Positive Intention ...........................................................................................................................30

3.7 FURTHER FINDINGS 30

4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 32

4.1 DISCUSSION 324.1.1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................324.1.2 Network .........................................................................................................................................334.1.3 Data ...............................................................................................................................................34

4.2 FURTHER RESEARCH 36

4.3 CONCLUSION 37

LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... 38

BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................................ 40

DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY ............................................................................................................. 44

ANNEX ...................................................................................................................................................... 45

I Questionnaires Explorative Interviews .........................................................................................45II Questionnaire Quantifying Interviews ..........................................................................................49III Workshop Scenarios ......................................................................................................................53IV Individual Network Parts ..............................................................................................................55V Network .........................................................................................................................................56VI DATA-CD ........................................................................................................................................57VII Further Impressions .....................................................................................................................57