land use: globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation
DESCRIPTION
Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation. Michael Obersteiner. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model. AGRICULTURE. FOREST. OTHER. =. DEMAND. SUPPLY. Livestock. Bioenergy. Forest Products. Ind.Roundwood Firewood Biomass 4 Energy. 60 Crops - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation
Michael Obersteiner
GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model
Land (type de sol, altitude, inclinaison, climat,système d’exploitation)
FOREST AGRICULTURE
Modèles biophysiques
EPICG4M
Ind.RoundwoodInd.RoundwoodFirewoodFirewoodBiomass 4 EnergyBiomass 4 Energy 60 Crops
6 Input Systems
Forest Products LivestockBioenergy
DEMAND=OTHER
Globally Consistent REDD++
Presentation of the model
Global coverage
• 28 regions• Endogenous prices • Bilateral trade flows
With a focus on Congo Basin
• 1550 Simulation Units from10*10km to 50*50 km
• Detailed infrastructure network
Model application
Simulation horizon: 2000–2030
Scenarios• Biofuels• Mead• Technological change• Infrastructure improvement
Sensitivity analysis : REDD policy• 50%, 75%, 90% reduction of global deforestation compared to
the situation Business As Usual (BAU)
Model application• Infrastructure scenario
Transport time with existing infrastructure
Transport time with completed Trans-African
Road networkScenario
Average = 40 hours Average = 23 hours
Deforestation after infrastructure improvement [1000 ha/SimU/10 years]
Green = low Red = high
I: Regional zooming - CongoBIOMI: Regional zooming - CongoBIOM
Deforestation Impact
• Deforested area in Congo Basin in 2030 (Mio. Ha)
Marginal REDD++ costs
Food Security
• Crop price index
Global Mitigation and Trade
Mitigation through Yield Improvements
• Input neutral yield growth– Plant material– Pest and disease management
• Input based yield growth– Subsistence, extensive, intensive, irrigated
intensive• Productivity gains by geographic allocation of
production– Trade
REDD+ and Agriculture based Mitigation
100% 71% 52% 41%
Global Wheat Trade 2050
% of total production % of Baseline
Crop Price Index
Bioenergy & Mitigation
Global Energy Portfolio – 1.5-2DG targetGlobal Energy Portfolio – 1.5-2DG target
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Source: Azar et al. 2010
Bioelectricity fro
m CHP
2nd Genn TransportfuelsHeat&Cooking
Impact of Biofuels Marginal Analysis - 2050
100%
Challenges
• Embodied technology transfer through FDI• International capital transfer• Trade liberalization• Get supply chains climate smarter such that funding
reaches the ground improved agricultural practices (e.g. roundtables and certification [CGF])
=> lower prices and price volatility more environmental services not only GHGs adaptation co-benefits