Land use in the coming decadesLand use in the coming decades

Science, Policy and Economics Science, Policy and Economics

Uwe A. SchneiderUwe A. Schneider

Sustainability and Global Change Research Sustainability and Global Change Research Unit, Hamburg UniversityUnit, Hamburg University

Land providesLand provides

FoodFood

EnergyEnergy

Habitat Habitat

RepositoryRepository

EmploymentEmployment

RelaxationRelaxation

Land use impactsLand use impacts

Nutrition (Malnutrition)Nutrition (Malnutrition)

ClimateClimate

BiodiversityBiodiversity

WaterWater

SoilSoil

Civil safetyCivil safety

Landscape & CultureLandscape & Culture

Land use impactsLand use impacts

Opportunities (Benefits)Opportunities (Benefits)

Threats (Costs)Threats (Costs)

They are linked. Globally.

Land use questionsLand use questions

What is the optimal land use?

Are we at the optimal state?

If not, how do we get there?

Policy

Science

Economics

Society

We have started the process

How do we get there?How do we get there?

Society demandsSociety demands

Provision of enough healthy foodProvision of enough healthy foodProtection of biodiversityProtection of biodiversityMitigation of climate changeMitigation of climate changeProduction of bioenergyProduction of bioenergyCreation of jobsCreation of jobsPollution reductionPollution reduction

Policy targets for coming decades

Scientific ContributionScientific Contribution

Genetic ChangesGenetic Changes

Management AlternativesManagement Alternatives

Carbon sequestration Carbon sequestration

Bioenergy, BiomaterialBioenergy, Biomaterial

Why Economics?Why Economics?

Resources are relatively finiteResources are relatively finite

Conflicts and synergiesConflicts and synergies

Marginal utilities of goods are decreasingMarginal utilities of goods are decreasing

Complex Optimization Problem

Agricultural GHG MitigationAgricultural GHG Mitigation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Car

bon

pric

e (E

uro/

tce)

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce)

TechnicalPotential

CompetitiveEconomic Potential

Schneider, McCarl, and Schmid, Agricultural Systems, 2007

Agricultural MarketsAgricultural Markets

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Fis

her

ind

ex

Carbon price ($/tce)

Crop prices

Livestock prices

Livestock production

Crop productionCrop exports

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Bil

lion

$

Carbon price ($/tce)

Welfare ChangesWelfare Changes

Gross Producer Surplus

Emission Payments

Net Producer Surplus

Consumer Surplus

Optimal Mitigation Strategy MixOptimal Mitigation Strategy Mix

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Car

bon

pri

ce (

$/tc

e)

Emission reduction (mmtce)

CH4 N2ODecrease

Tillage CarbonSink

AfforestationSink

Bioenergy EmissionOffsets

McCarl and Schneider, Science, 2001

Tillage Carbon SinkTillage Carbon Sink

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Car

bon

pric

e ($

/tce

)

Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce)

Technical Potential

Economic Potential

Competitive EconomicPotential

McCarl and Schneider, Science, 2001

Environmental Co-EffectsEnvironmental Co-Effects

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Pol

luti

on (

%/a

cre)

Carbon price ($/tce)

N Percolation

N Subsurface Flow

Soil Erosion

P Loss

Emission LeakageEmission Leakage

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

0 20 40 60 80 100

Fis

her

’s I

dea

l In

dex

Carbon price ($/tce)

USA Only Annex I Countries

All Countries

Non-Annex I crop net exports foragricultural GHG mitigation policy in:

Schneider, Havlik, Schmid, Obersteiner et al., submitted, 2009

2030 Scenarios

Mammals

1. Castor fiber Eurasian BeaverEuropäischer Biber

2. Galemys pyrenaicus Pyrenean Desman Pyrenäen-Desman

3. Lutra lutra European Otter Fischotter4. Microtus cabrerae Cabrera's Vole Cabreramaus5. Microtus oec. arenicola Dutch Root Vole

Niederländische Wühlmaus6. Microtus oec. mehelyiPannonian Root Vole

Ungarische Wühlmaus7. Mustela lutreola European Mink Europäischer

Nerz8. Myotis capaccinii Long-fingered Bat

Langfußfledermaus9. Myotis dasycneme Pond Bat TeichfledermausReptiles

1. Elaphe quatuorlineata Four-lined Snake Vierstreifennatter2. Emys orbicularis European Pond Tortoise Europäische

Sumpfschildkröte3. Mauremys caspica Stripe Necked Terrapin Kaspische

Wasserschildkröte4. Mauremys leprosa Spanish Terrapin Spanische

Wasserschildkröte

Amphibians

1. Alytes muletensis Mallorcan Midwife Toad Balearen-Geburtshelferkröte

2. Bombina bombina Fire-Bellied Toad Rotbauchunke3. Bombina variegata Yellow-Bellied Toad Gelbbauchunke4. Chioglossa lusitanica Golden-striped Salamander Goldstreifensalamander5. Discoglossus galganoi Iberian Painted Frog Iberian painted frog6. Discoglossus montalentii Corsican Painted Frog Korsischer

Scheibenzüngler7. Discoglossus sardus Tyrrhenian Painted Frog Sardischer

Scheibenzüngler8. Pelobates f. insubricus Common Spadefoot Italienische

Knoblauchkröte9. Rana latastei Italian Agile Frog Italienischer

Springfrosch10. Salamandrina terdigitata Spectacled Salamander Brillensalamander11. Triturus carnifex Italian Crested Newt Alpen-Kammolch12. Triturus cristatus Great Crested Newt Kammolch13. Triturus dobrogicus Danube Crested Newt Donau-Kammolch14. Triturus karelini Southern Crested Newt Balkankammmolch15. Triturus montandoni Carpathian Newt Karpatenmolch

Birds

1. Acrocephalus paludicola Aquatic Warbler Seggenrohrsänger2. Alcedo atthis Kingfisher Eisvogel3. Anser erythropus Lesser White-fronted Goose Zwerggans4. Aquila chrysaetos Golden Eagle Steinadler5. Aquila clanga Spotted Eagle Schelladler6. Ardea purpurea purpurea Purple Heron Purpurreiher7. Ardeola ralloides Squacco Heron Rallenreiher8. Asio flammeus Short-eared Owl Sumpfohreule9. Aythya nyroca Ferruginous Duck Moorente10. Botaurus stellaris stellaris Bittern Rohrdommel11. Chlidonias hybridus Whiskered Tern

Weißbartseeschwalbe12. Chlidonias niger Black Tern Trauerseeschwalbe13. Ciconia ciconia White Stork Weißstorch14. Ciconia nigra Black Stork Schwarzstorch15. Crex crex Corncrake Wachtelkönig16. Fulica cristata Crested Coot Kammbläßhuhn17. Gavia arctica Black-throated Diver Prachttaucher18. Gelochelidon nilotica Gull-billed Tern Lachseeschwalbe19. Glareola pratincola Collared Pratincole Brachschwalbe20. Grus grus Crane Kranich21. Haliaeetus albicilla White-tailed Eagle Seeadler22. Hoplopterus spinosus Spur-winged Plover Spornkiebitz23. Ixobrychus m. minutus Little Bittern Zwergdommel24. Marmaronetta angustrostris Marbled Teal Marmelente25. Milvus migrans Black Kite Schwarzmilan26. Nycticorax nycticorax Night Heron Nachtreiher27. Oxyura leucocephala White-headed Duck Weißkopf-

Ruderente28. Pandion haliaetus Osprey Fischadler29. Pelecanus crispus Dalmatian Pelican Krauskopfpelikan30. Pelecanus onocrotalus White Pelican Rosapelikan31. Phalacrocorax pygmaeus Pygmy Cormorant Zwergscharbe32. Philomachus pugnax Ruff Kampfläufer33. Platalea leucorodia Spoonbill Löffler34. Plegadis falcinellus Glossy Ibis Braunsichler35. Porphyrio porphyrio Purple Gallinule Purpurhuhn36. Porzana parva parva Little Crake Kleines

Sumpfhuhn37. Porzana porzana Spotted Crake Tüpfelsumpfhuhn38. Porzana pusilla Baillon´s Crake Zwergsumpfhuhn39. Sterna albifrons Little Tern Zwergseeschwalbe40. Tadorna ferruginea Ruddy Shelduck Rostgans41. Tringa glareola Wood Sandpiper Bruchwasserläufer

1

4

3

2

1514

11

6

12

13

10

2

1

7

89

5

4

3

9

2

1

3

4

5

6 7

8

1

26

9

16

8

76

54

32

17

1312

11

10

21

20

23

1514

19

27

25

24

18

28

34

22

33

32

29

35

30

31

41

40

38

36

39

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Are

a in

mil

lion

hec

tare

s

Representation Minimum

Mires (Peat lands)

Wet Forest

Wet GrassWater CourseWater Bodies

All Wetland

Jantke and Schneider, 2009

EU25 Bioenergy PotentialsEU25 Bioenergy Potentials

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Mar

gina

l Bio

mas

s C

ost

in E

uro/

ton

European Biomass Production in million tons

10 Mha

30 Mha

Wetlands = 40 Mha

Schleupner and Schneider, FNU-158, 2008

Challenges for Policy DesignChallenges for Policy Design

Data and model uncertaintyData and model uncertainty

Political feasibility Political feasibility

Monitoring and enforcementMonitoring and enforcement

Available DataModels

InsightsNew Data

Improved Models

Ex: Land Use Policy InsightsEx: Land Use Policy Insights

Simulation results suggest that current and Simulation results suggest that current and historical land use and land quality historical land use and land quality assumptions are crucial driversassumptions are crucial drivers

Better accounting on current land use, Better accounting on current land use, land attributes, and land management is land attributes, and land management is needed needed

ConclusionsConclusions

Policies based on science but not on economics Policies based on science but not on economics will backfire will backfire

Detailed land monitoring at global level crucial Detailed land monitoring at global level crucial before implementation of policiesbefore implementation of policies

Bioenergy from dedicated plantations may cause Bioenergy from dedicated plantations may cause more damage than benefitmore damage than benefit

Deforestation of old growth forests has small Deforestation of old growth forests has small benefits for few but large costs to manybenefits for few but large costs to many

Land restoration should receive greater attentionLand restoration should receive greater attention