land use, planning and risk in the context of climate ...€¦ · monitor local land change...

Pan American Institute of Advance Studies Institute for the Integration of Research on Climate Change and Hazards in the Americas-AAG

0

Pan American Institute of Advance Studies

Institute for the Integration of Research on Climate Change and Hazards

Panama City, June 2010

Land use, planning and risk in the context of climate change.

A new proposal for research and assessment in the Americas

Working Group “Las Americas” Team members (by alphabetical order): Chavez Michaelsen, Andrea Birgit (University of Florida, U.S.A –Universidad Nacional Amazónica de Madre

de Dios, Puerto Maldonado Perú)

Coronel, Claudia (Centrogeo, México)

Esquivel, Maricarmen (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S.A – Costa Rica)

Nuñez, Javier (Universidad de Alcalá, España –Bolivia)

Rowe, Dan (Syracuse University, U.S.A – Canada)

Tambie, Jason Dwaine (University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago)

Viand, Jesica Melina (University of Buenos Aires, PIRNA- Geography Institute, Argentina)

NSF Award # OISE-0921613


1

Land use, planning and risk in the context of climate change. A new proposal for research and assessment in the Americas

Abstract Considering the increased crises and disasters occurring because of climate change, proper land use planning that takes into account the risks will be an effective way to reduce the current impacts and those that could occur in the future. The aim of this paper is to present a state of art and discussion of different problems where land use issue is involved in relationship with climate change. The topics discussed are land use changes/land cover changes, the role of land use planning and its relationship with risk of disasters, the role of data and GIS and communication. As a conclusion and revision of the topics discussed, we arrive at a proposal for integrating the study of climate change and hazards focusing on land use.

Contents 1. Introduction: the role of land use in the context of climate change ............................................... 2

2. Land use/ Land cover change ................................................................................................................... 3

2.a) Land use, scales of impacts and equity ................................................................................................................................. 4

2.b) Example: The case of Madre de Dios, Peru and Pando, Bolivia .............................................................................. 5

2.c) Research questions: ........................................................................................................................................................................ 6

3. Land use planning ........................................................................................................................................ 6

3. a) Examples: Determinants of Location: Transportation. The case study of Curitiba Brazil. ...................... 7

3.b) Research questions: ........................................................................................................................................................................ 7

4. Land use planning and risk of disasters -with a special emphasis on cities ................................ 8

4.a) Land use and hazards ................................................................................................................................................................... 9

4.b) Land use and social vulnerability ........................................................................................................................................ 10

4. c) Examples: Flood in El Alto City, Bolivia and Santa Fe city, Argentina. ............................................................ 11

4.d) Research questions: ..................................................................................................................................................................... 12

5. Land use and geographical data for modeling and GIS .................................................................... 13

5. a) An example: The case study of Trinidad and Tobago ............................................................................................... 15

5.b) Research questions: ..................................................................................................................................................................... 15

6. The communication challenge of science and its uncertainties ................................................... 15

6.a) Research questions: ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17

7. A new proposal for integrating the study of climate change and hazards focusing on

land use ................................................................................................................................................. 17

Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................................. 19

References ............................................................................................................................................................. 19


2 Introduction: the role of land use in the context of climate change

1. Introduction: the role of land use in the context of climate change

Due to the increase in hazards, which are part of the crises and disasters occurring

nowadays, the study and planning of land use are becoming an important issue in the

context of climate change. It is through the territory where the impacts of this climate

change are evident and, as consequence, the scenario of land uses has a considerable

role. From the study of global and regional impacts of land use changes to the

environment, to the land use planning in local scale, such as cities, the issue appears to

be in the center of attention.

Social and economic processes are leading to rapid changes in land use throughout the

Americas. The rapid pace of deforestation, urbanization, generation of energy and

unsustainable agricultural practices are involved in this issue and contribute to climate

change, as land use change has been recognized as one of the main drivers of climate

variability on the last 40 years (Dan & Ji, 2007). This process contributes to the

appearance of hazardous phenomena. On the other hand, the complexity of socio-

economic process, such as social inequities and socio-territorial segregation, differences

in the access to recourses and lack of information are making people more vulnerable to

the presence of hazards.

We perceive a close relationship between these issues and see them interlinked within a

dynamic complex system of global environmental changes.

An understanding of these processes and the challenge of rational planning and

management of land use can not only help to solve the occurrence of crisis or disasters,

but they can also be part of the effort to solve the bigger issues of sustainable

development.

In this paper we present a state of art and discussion of different problems where land use

issues are involved in relationships with climate change:

Land use changes/land cover changes analysis and its scales of impact;

The land use planning for mitigating the effects of climate change;

Land use planning for reducing risk of disasters, especially in cities;

The uncertainty in data sets for remote sensing, GIS and modeling

The challenge of communicating scientific research to the public.

In the revision and discussion of these issues we arrived at a proposal to create an

advisory entity/platform concerning land use and climate change in the Americas.


3 Land use/ Land cover change

2. Land use/ Land cover change

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) is part of land change science and is only one

component of the global environmental changes currently underway. The understanding of

land use change is crucial since it captures the dynamic linkages between the biophysical

and human dimensions of global change. Energy use is tightly linked to population and its

standards of consumption, and this linkage interacts with socio-political and cultural

structures to create pressure on land users to produce more goods and services to meet

human demands (Moran, Skole & Turner, 2004). The sources of this demand and the

location of production to meet human demands are not always spatially congruent, and the

large regional differences in access to land and land-based resources exist. It is precisely

these kinds of disconnects and discrepancies in land change and its various

consequences that require an understanding of LULCC in which its global and local-

regional dimensions are connected.

The LULCC literature emphasizes spatial and temporal variability in land cover

trajectories, which are often viewed as the result of proximate land-use decisions driven by

various intermediate and distant determinants, including government policies (Seto et al.,

2002; Kaimowitz & Angelsen, 1998; Fearnside, 2000; Geist & Lambin 2002).

Land cover descriptions link „elements‟ that cover the surface on Earth in terms of their

physical characteristics (e.g. lowland forest). Land use, on the other hand, involves a

social rationale (Chavez, 2009). Since land use has a social purpose, it is difficult to

dissociate land use from available physical characteristics. As such, information on human

and economic activity is undoubtedly harder to perceive than land-cover characteristics,

because deductions must be made about how land use is manifest in land cover (Seto et

al., 2002). To understand changes in land-uses, it is necessary to understand the roles

played by individual households, decision-makers, and institutions, as well as the driving

forces behind their actions.

Land use policies and projections of the future role of land use change in earth system

dynamics capture the complex socio-economic and biophysical drivers of land use change

but also account for the specific human-environment conditions under which the drivers

operate (Lambin et al., 2001; Angelsen & Kaimowitz, 1999; Lambin & Geist, 2006).

The study of LULCC has become a priority for diverse research communities and policy

makers since natural and social scientists have recognized the link between land-

use/cover change and the human processes that drive spatial patterns. At the global scale,

monitoring LULCC change and the many drivers impacting global environmental change

has been crucial to understand climate changes, ecosystem processes, biogeochemical

cycles, biodiversity, and, even more importantly, human activities (Geist & Lambin 2001;

Geist & Lambin 2003; Frohn et al., 1996; Nelson & Geoghegan, 2002; Futemma &

Brondizio 2003; Moran et al. 1994; Walsh et al., 1999, 2003; Perz, 2002; Peralta & Mather,

2000; Southworth et al., 2002).



The use of satellite imagery is a valuable tool for measuring LULCC and is becoming

increasingly more accessible and its methodology has been tested and improved within

many experimental projects and facilitated global change studies (Keller et al., 2004; de

Sherbinin, A. 2004; Hansen et al., 2000). However, despite these valuable efforts in

exchanging methodologies and disseminating results on large-scale changes, efforts to

monitor local land change especially in Latin American countries remain limited. Moreover,

data on local land use/cover dynamics are incomplete or non-existent. At the same time,

explanations on local LULCC patterns are hardly available. This has prompted wide-

ranging discussions of drivers of tropical deforestation which have pointed to a number of

human-environmental causes that can be related at the local level, and include

government policies (Kaimowitz & Angelsen, 1998; Geist & Lambin, 2003; Wood & Porro,

2002; McCracken et al., 2002; Walsh & Crews-Meyer, 2002; Turner et al., 2004;). Here, of

particular significance are spatial and temporal variations in government policies and how

they influence LULCC (Mather, 2006:376; Pacheco, 2002).

2.a) Land use, scales of impacts and equity

The focus on power relations and political processes influencing the dynamics of land use

change occurs at multiple scales. Ranging from the individual‟s household and community

level to a broader scale processes initiated at the national and global levels, definite

interactions are made between land transformations and political-economic processes.

The politics of everyday life produce nuanced and powerful explanations of ecological and

social change (Robbins, 2003). Across scales, however, there is a disassociation between

the instruments of the state and the impacts locally (Grossman, 1998; Castree, 2002).

Research on coupled social-ecological systems recognizes that humans and nature are

interconnected and interdependent, interacting in complex, non-linear systems

(Gunderson and Holling, 2002). Much of this thinking has come from the work on

ecological resilience, which challenges the „stable equilibrium‟ view of ecology and

considers a non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, as well as the

interplay of periods of gradual and rapid change and its dynamics over different temporal

and spatial scales (Folke, 2006). From this perspective, climate change represents one

more factor demonstrating how human activities are altering ecosystems and ecosystems

services, which in turn have implications for human well-being (Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment 2005).

An environmental framing of climate change has promoted a limited understanding of the

equity dimensions of climate change. It is mostly in terms of North-South divide,

particularly in relation to climate change mitigation, development and sustainability. Less

attention has been paid to equity issues that occur within national boundaries, or those

that manifest at diverse scales and units of analysis (O‟Brien and Leichenko, 2006). The

belief that climate change impacts alone creates vulnerability and insecurity, unrelated to

the dynamic social and human context in which it is experienced, pervades current

debates about climate change. The equity dimensions of climate change are not limited to



questions of historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, but encompass a

much broader range of questions about the underlying factors that contribute to

vulnerability. For example, the double exposure framework looks at different levels and at

different values within a transformative globalization structure and considers how multiple

outcomes and processes create vulnerable responses for some and not for others

(Leichenko & O‟Brien, 2008).

Climate change is not simply an environmental issue that can be managed through

behavioral changes and/or new regulations. It is not solely a problem of environmental

institutions and non-governmental organizations. It is not a problem that can only be

solved by ecological modernization, ecosystem stewardship or sustainable development. It

requires a shift away from the dominant framing that focuses on responding to change

through a problem-solving approach or cost-benefit analysis and towards a framing that

recognizes and prioritizes the capacity of individuals and communities to both respond to

and create change, including sets of equity, ethics, and responsibility and to create

transformational changes that acknowledge the rights and responsibilities to distant others

and future generations.

2.b) Example: The case of Madre de Dios, Peru and Pando, Bolivia

The case of the region of Madre de Dios in Peru and Pando in Bolivia describes a land change case study that requires the critical understanding within regional dimensions. Madre de Dios, Peru and Pando, Bolivia, located in the southwestern Amazon, together comprise one of the most biologically and socially diverse regions of the world. These two departments also form a crucial link in the Inter-Oceanic Highway, which connects Atlantic ports in southern Brazil to Pacific ports in Peru. The highway is currently being paved where it passes through Madre de Dios, and the construction zone stands very near the Bolivian border where Pando is located. Other road paving projects have been proposed in Bolivia that include paving of roads within Pando, and planning is advancing for a set of major hydroelectric dams on the Madeira River and on the Inambari River in Madre de Dios, Puno and Cusco Departments. Further, these dams will greatly affect the upstream tributaries in both Madre de Dios and Pando. In addition to large-scale infrastructure projects, that will signify considerably land use changes, Madre de Dios and Pando face other challenges, from climate variability and change. The year 2005 marked a record drought in the southwestern Amazon, and associated fires resulted in damage to over 140,000 hectares of forests and smoke pollution that had widespread health and environmental consequences. Threats to biodiversity via degradation of forest and water resources are increasingly recognized as social problems for local populations in the southwestern Amazon. The six months from fall 2005 to spring 2006 made clear to urban populations that deforestation, along roads as well as rivers, worsens fluctuations in river levels, which were low during the 2005 drought and above flood stage by February 2006. Watershed management became a priority policy goal due to social demands stemming from recognition of the importance of the environmental services of forests for moderating river levels and water quality. Planning to mitigate landscape impacts along road corridors, where most deforestation (LULCC) occurs, has also become an important social goal. Given that many rivers in Madre de Dios flow into Pando, and given that the Inter-Oceanic Highway passes through Madre de Dios alongside Pando, there is growing recognition of the need for


6 Land use planning

cross-border exchanges and coordinated action to improve environmental management in Madre de Dios and Pando. Further changes related to LULCC change and the human processes emphasizing the temporal variability have been documented by the “2010 Atlas of our changing environment” (www.cathalac.org).

2.c) Research questions:

How can the changes in land use be managed to minimize hazards and risks?

Who is the „we‟ that is going to have to change to adapt to climate changes? How can

climate change and hazards policies really address the cord issue of social equity at

various scales?

3. Land use planning

Planning in anticipation of future growth and development (or decline in some areas) is an

important element for the environmental, economic, and social health of communities. In

order to create better cities (and at the same time to contribute to the health of the rural

and forest areas), decisions regarding the future use of space and the location of activities

should fully include and integrate the elements of land use, hazards, and adaptation to

climate change.

Decisions about where to make investments, such as a roads, can have a determining

influence on a locality, for example a road that opens up a fragile ecosystem to human

influence. As defined by the American Planning Association (APA), “Planning helps

communities to envision their future. It helps them find the right balance of new

development and essential services, environmental protection, and innovative

change.”More specifically, the United Nations defines land use planning as the:

“Branch of physical and socio-economic planning that determines the means and assesses the values or limitations of various options in which land is to be utilized, with the corresponding effects on different segments of the population or interests of a community taken into account in resulting decisions… Land-use planning involves studies and mapping, analysis of environmental and hazard data, formulation of alternative land-use decisions and design of a long-range plan for different geographical and administrative scales.” (UNISDR, 2010)

All the decision-making processes that involve land use management and its actual

implementation are the most critical factors. Due to this and the complexity of matters

emerging from climate change, it is necessary to strengthen capacity building to allow for

participatory processes with stakeholders.

http://www.cathalac.org/


7 Land use planning

3. a) Examples: Determinants of Location: Transportation. The case study of Curitiba Brazil.

There are many reasons why certain land uses are established in certain areas, such as climate and environmental conditions (e.g. suitability to grow crops), access to water, and access to markets. One key determinant of location that is also very important in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation is transportation opportunities. Transportation has an effect on land use development demand, choices, and patterns, and land use can affect transport, such as with “smart growth” and “new urbanism.” Furthermore, sea level rise will demand adaptation of key infrastructure such as ports, for example. In order to avoid exacerbating the problem, it is imperative to curb the trend of suburban development and car use in efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. Portland, Oregon is a good example of a city with a successful model for growth management and comprehensive land-use planning at the city and Metro (regional level), which includes, among other things, an Urban Growth Boundary. The level of bike use in cities like Copenhagen and Stockholm and the accompanying infrastructure, such as designated bike lanes, are examples of new trends towards more sustainable behaviors and land uses. In developing countries, as well, there is a need for government intervention to help create high ridership in public transportation, as increases in income will most likely increase car ownership and vehicle miles traveled. “The challenge is to create clean sources of transportation that do not compromise the ability to have a better economic and social life” (Gakenheimer, 2002). Example of land use planning – Curitiba, Brazil The city of Curitiba, Brazil is one of the most successful examples of a city in a developing country where the articulation of land use planning and transportation infrastructure have contributed to an increase in the use of public transportation (and thus less CO2 emissions from cars), and a decrease in flooding events. The Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT) pioneered in Curitiba has been implemented in cities like Bogota, Colombia, and Jinan, China. The Curitiba system is also renowned for the connection between the transportation system and land use, where bus lanes are planned as major corridors for buses only, and concentrated development is encouraged along these major corridors. Certain areas of the city have been designated as parks, and these also serve as catchment areas that decrease the flow of water into other areas of the city. The success of this transportation and land use model is attributed to several factors, including the draft of a land use plan early on in a city‟s development, an energetic and popular mayor, and institutional capacity for data management. Researchers also note the importance of participation, incentives and good systems to guide future developments (Rabinovitch, 2004).

3.b) Research questions:

Could community levels interventions and top down policies be better integrated on

climate change and hazards? Finding agreement between interests at these two different

scales is sometimes a roadblock for better management policies.


8

4. Land use planning and risk of disasters -with a special emphasis on cities

The increased frequency of disasters today, especially in the cities of Latin America and the Caribbean, needs an approach that links two aspects: land use planning and risk. There is not a single perspective or approach to define the complexity of risk1. Generally, it is defined as the probability of damage by the occurrence of a particular event, which is socially constructed in a continuous process and previous to the disaster. (Blaikie, et al, 1998; Lavell, 2001). This perspective focuses on the different ways in which society creates the previous conditions for disaster. Usually, risk is analyzed as the relationship of two dimensions: a hazard and vulnerability (both will be explained in more detail in the next items). The hazards relates to the probability of occurrence of a natural or technological process harmful to society. Vulnerability means the condition that exposes a population and makes it prone to be affected and hurt about the hazard (Cardona, 1993; Wilches Chaux, 1998 Lavell, 2002). Finally, an important aspect that arises in any risk analysis is the uncertainty (Natenzon op. cit). This dimension refers to the aspects that cannot be quantified. Either in the potentially dangerous phenomena or in the vulnerability of the population, there are aspects that are not fully known. There are two types of uncertainty: technical and policy (González, 2010). The first refers to the lack of completed responses from the scientific and technical knowledge on hazards and to the impacted society. The second is linked to the need to make decisions even if there is not total certainty from the experts (Natenzon, op. Cit.). In more recent conceptualizations of risk, land use and territorial planning are key tools in risk control and preventive management of disasters (ICSU, 2009;Gonzalez, op.cit.). One possible explanation of this process is given by the UN / ISDR:

Land-use planning can help to mitigate disasters and reduce risks by discouraging high-density settlements and construction of key installations in hazard-prone areas, control of population density and expansion, and in the sitting of service routes for transport, power,

water, sewage and other critical facilities. (EIRD, 2004-2008)

It is important to understand that in this complex relationship nature-society is created by historical decisions makings of all kinds, many of which are related to the dominant thinking of planning in determined period of time. The land use planning in the risk perspective is within a more integral concept called risk management2. This proposal, which arose mainly in the 1990s, has been described in

1 There are different types of risk analysis as the factor that gives rise to: environmental hazards, technological,

financial, political, industrial, business, social, etc. (Veyret, 2008) 2 “The systematic process of using administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to

implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of

natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities,

including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and

preparedness) adverse effects of hazards.” (EIRD, 2004).


9 Land use planning and risk of disasters -with a special emphasis on cities

academia, international agencies and national organizations as an important strategy for disaster prevention. However, it is too difficult to incorporate it in the area of governance. The implementation of a risk management process that integrates the existing government structures together with land use planning is not a simple task, nor will it instantly prompt resolution to situations that often require urgent responses (González, op. cit.). Moreover, Latin American government institutions are characterized by the fragmentation in which they consider environmental issues and instability over time (Natenzon and Viand 2005). A management plan with a risk approach that identifies hazards and vulnerabilities in a territory through a technical analysis and participatory approach to incorporate the definition of land use would allow the integration and more general measures aimed at improving the levels of vulnerability existing. The scenarios where the risk and planning of land use become more complex are in urban areas. The complex relationships that exist within urban areas, such as their high concentration of infrastructure, goods and people (with increasing levels of vulnerability and social variables), make it the ideal setting for the generation of risks (Mansfield, 2000; Lavell, 2002 ; Rios and Gonzalez, 2008). Slums, for example, are evidence of how the process of growth and urbanization can increase physical vulnerability, although not necessarily economic and social vulnerability. In fact, the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1999) conference recommends that “prevention measures be combined with land use planning and development measures for sustainable management of human settlements and environment”. With more than half of the world‟s population now living in cities, making better use of land and natural resources has become more crucial than ever. According to the former, we can point out some urban process where risk areas are produced:

The informal settlements in hazardous areas by low-income population with high levels of social vulnerability.

The formalization of settlements by the government in hazardous areas through the construction of infrastructure and service provision.

The actions of real state that construct luxury towers, private towns, condominiums in hazardous areas, creating a risk.

The construction of urban infrastructure (drains, embankments, etc.) as amplifiers of natural hazards.

4.a) Land use and hazards

Hazard means the potential of a natural physical phenomenon or a human activity to produce harm. This perception is socially constructed, because a phenomenon of nature becomes a "threat" only if a component of society is subject to possible damage or loss (Wilches Chaux, 1998.; Lavell, op.cit.). According to these extraordinary natural phenomena occurrence may be predictable or unpredictable depending on the degree of knowledge we have about its occurrence (Romero and Maskrey 1993). The more



knowledge we have about the phenomenon means that we will have more capacity to be able to act in relation to it. Also, there are hazards which can be seen as products of the dynamics of nature, but in its occurrence or aggravation of their effects, there are human actions involved. This can happen where there is an improper handling of soil and/or inadequate watershed management. Hydrometeorological hazards are requiring greater attention and importance in the context of climate change. These are floods, landslides, storm surges, tropical cyclones, thunder/hailstorms, drought, desertification, among others. The acceleration of the hydrological cycle will strengthen and increase the frequency of extreme events and regional differences where these happen (Van Aalsst, 2006, IPCC, 2007). Taking this into account, planning land use according to the possible hazards present in a territory can be an effective adaptation measure to climate change in order to prevent disasters.

4.b) Land use and social vulnerability

Vulnerability means the predisposition to suffering damage or a loss. Usually, vulnerability can be classified as either technical or social. The first one can be quantified in physical and functional terms, for example, the potential losses relating to damage or interruption of services. Social vulnerability can be measured qualitatively and relatively, because it is related to economic, educational, cultural, and ideological factors (Cardona, 1993). This vulnerability is not an absolute or static characteristic of a population, but results from a complex, dynamic and changing social group, which determines if it is exposed or not the occurrence of a disaster or if it is more or less likely to anticipate and recover (Wilches Chaux, 1998.). Vulnerability in developing countries, particularly countries in Latin America, is a major

concern. A hazard has more effects, consequences and damage in these countries than in

developed countries. The question is why there is a greater vulnerability in developing

countries. Following the context of this white paper to explain the events through changing

land use, in particular in cities.

According to the Population Fund (UNFPA, 2007), by 2030, the urban population will grow about 5-billion people and the developing world's cities will house more than 80% of the urban population (UNFPA, 2007). This means that large cities will continue growing by promoting the agglomeration of people in confined spaces. These people need more services (water, electricity, gas, etc.), more complex equipment and communication networks. Developing countries, in many cases, they are not able to plan their territory at the rate of growth of cities. The rapid growth of cities in developing countries and lack of resources to manage their territory cause a disorderly growth of cities. This disordered growth produces a high vulnerability to those who occupy dangerous areas like edges of rivers, steep slopes, etc. (D‟Ercole et al, 2009). But vulnerability is not only generated in the occupation of hazardous areas, but also in the generation of hazardous areas, for example: the location of a gas station near to a school, the location of electrical



generators, landfills, nuclear power plants, and extracting oil near agglomeration (Nuñez-Villalba, 2009). Another form of vulnerability generated in cities is possible through the networks of services such as roads, electricity networks, water networks, gas networks, etc. Any disruption in the functioning of this network is vital to the functioning of urban cities. As a result, urban crises can occur, having a disastrous effects on the population. An example of this interruption of the networks of urban services was the fuel shortages after Hurricane Katrina in the year 2008 in the United States (HC, 2008). The examples are endless when you look at the consequences, which are poorly studied, in Latin American countries (Nuñez-Villalba, 2009). The necessity for urban services obtained from natural resources, like water, will become increasingly intense in the future. This will drive a high migration of people resulting from climate change to amend the land use. Thus, climate change will not only result in natural consequences, but also social consequences. The loss of a vital element for the functioning of a city can generate a chain crisis that is affecting more people and at different scales. Although it is impossible to reduce vulnerability completely, as lands that are vulnerable are sometimes also valuable (for example, land that floods can be very fertile in drought-prone regions; e.g. The Nile), better land use management and planning can help reduce this vulnerability considerably, and can be complemented by other risk management and adaptation measures. “Land use plans must be based on location and vulnerability reduction strategies and methods” (ICSU, 2009).

4. c) Examples: Floods in El Alto City, Bolivia and Santa Fe city, Argentina.

City of El Alto, Bolivia:

This city is an example of the change of land use in urban areas that are exposed to a high vulnerability.

El Alto, Bolivia

1955 2006

Both images show a substantial change product of urban growth in the city of El Alto- Bolivia. This area is crossed by a river that changed its regular course as consequence of



urban growth. The effects of changing the regular course of the river causing major flooding and damage to the surrounding community each year to the present.

Risk by floods in Santa Fe city, Argentina:

Flood hazards provoke the most frequent type of disaster in Argentina and they cause a great amount of economic loss and social damage. This kind of hazard is highly present at the River Plate basin, which is the most populated area in the country. As a representative case study of the region, we have the disaster that occurred in Santa Fe City in 2003. Approximately more than one third of this urban area was covered by water and 130,000 people were affected when the Salado River entered the city like “flash flood” which was the result of an incomplete embankment. Santa Fe City, Argentina

Historically, the city has expanded to the flood plain areas according to the construction of embankments and without land use zoning that involved the hazard. Also, there was not an evacuation plan. In the less protected areas, there are informal settlements with population in poverty conditions. The 2003 disaster revealed the high risk situation of the city. Due to this, in the following years, the local government decided to establish a risk management office. Today, this entity has become one of the first experiences in Argentina. It has the aim to execute a contingency plan, but has many difficulties to do it. There is still the land planning duty awaiting, with the idea of zoning concerning flood hazard, due to many political troubles (Viand, 2009)

Fuente CONAE (2003)

4.d) Research questions:

How can policies for disaster reduction be implemented at different government scales? What types of risks are bearable, and by whom? How can we increase capacity building for the implementation of effective policies on land use and risk management? How can poverty be one of the big issues that has to be solve to reduce risks of disasters?


13 Land use and geographical data for modeling and GIS

5. Land use and geographical data for modeling and GIS

The use of geo-spatial technologies such as modeling software, geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing can be employed to simulate the effects that possible future scenarios of land use changes will have on natural hazards. However, uncertainty involved in climate change/ land use change research influences the way in which the research is communicated to and perceived by stakeholders and the general public. GIS is a tool that can be used in natural hazards management. There are also many different types of models that can be used to simulate the effects of various types of hazards such as flooding. Models can be seen as representations of reality. Presently, most modeling work uses some form of GIS and remote sensing data. The results simulated by models can never be totally accurate since there is always uncertainty involved in modeling work. Modeling and GIS can be used as research tools as well as a communication tools. Floods can be modeled by the use of hydrological and hydraulic models. Uncertainties in hydrological models arise from uncertainty in model parameters, uncertainty in input data and model structural uncertainty (Dulal et al., 2006). Some of the data which are input into these models are in GIS formats. This allows for easier organization of parameters as well as the ability to produce maps in an effective way. Data inputs into hydrological models include: precipitation, topography, temperature, soil type parameters and land use/ land cover. These data need to be of reasonably high quality in order to generate simulations of river discharges with a high degree of accuracy. However, in many developing countries such as those in Latin America and the Caribbean, there are numerous problems which evolve around data inputs for climate research studies. Therefore, there needs to be improvements in data in these countries. The main issues surrounding data requirements for modeling of floods will now be discussed briefly. High resolution topography data is very difficult to obtain especially in developing countries. Many modelers in these countries have to rely on contour data for the generation of digital elevation models (DEMs). Where satellite data is available for the creation of DEMs, it is usually of a coarse resolution. For example, SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) is a dataset which can be used in flood modeling studies. It is a DEM which covers the Earth surface between 600N and 570 S. The 90m dataset is freely available on the internet; however there are numerous problems associated with it (Rodriguez et al., 2005) that can affect the simulations being generated by hydrological models. There have been many examples of the use of SRTM 90 m in hydrological modeling in developing countries of the Americas. For example, Valeriano et al. (2006) assessed the use of modeling small watersheds in Brazilian Amazonia by use of SRTM 90 m data. Resolution of the SRTM data is a major constraint which affects hydrological modeling. If finer resolutions become freely available to the public, for example 30 meter data, then this can significantly improve the quality and reliability of results of flood inundation being simulated by hydrological models. In addition, Lidar is another good high resolution dataset which has been used in flood modeling studies (for example: Bates et al., 2003). However, it is very expensive. Land use data being analyzed in risk management studies usually comes in a GIS format. Changes in land use can be observed by looking at how land covers change over time. This can be done by comparing satellite images which have been collected at various time intervals. There are many types of satellite data which can be used in land use change


14 Land use and geographical data for modeling and GIS

studies. Landsat data, for example, is collected on a systematic basis from countries around the world (Goward and Williams, 1997). Some satellite data is freely available, for example MODIS (Justice et al., 2002). According to Hansen and DeFries (2004), when satellite data is properly calibrated and validated by ground data, it provides spatial information about land cover, and changes which occur over time. Furthermore, when remote sensing data and GIS are integrated, a powerful tool is created for the detection of urban growth (Harris and Ventura, 1995). However, there are limitations to these datasets which introduces uncertainty to the results of the models. Fassnacht et al. (2006) discusses some of the limitations associated with Landsat data. They look at how the classification of land use data as well as how the accuracy assessment affects the results being delivered by the data. In addition, when remotely sensed data are used in models errors inherent in the data can be propagated to the end results without the modeler knowing about it. Scientists therefore need to establish approaches by which they can determine how fit the quality of the geographic data are for use in projects. According to Agumya and Hunter (1999), the main approaches used to determine the „fitness of use” of geographic data are: a standards based approach and a risk-based approach. Furthermore, there needs to be some improvements in data acquisition, storage, access and quality. Greater financial resources are needed to improve data quality for research in developing countries. Financial constraints are a problem many of these countries face in acquiring data of „good‟ quality. Many of these countries lack resources (financial, human expertise, technological). The challenges can be overcome by investing in the training of researchers as well as establishing transnational databases that allows for data sharing between developed and developing countries. This will ultimately affect the ways in which data is acquired and hence the quality. A common database can be used by scientists and organizations from all countries across the Americas to upload the datasets which they use for research. This would facilitate better communication among researchers and aid in the understating of strengths and weaknesses in research. If more people interface with the data then there can be more discussions and ideas for improvements. This is important since the results of models and the potential impacts will not only affect the developing countries but also the developed countries in the long term. Climate change impacts cannot be understood in isolation. It is a global problem and requires that there be improved sharing of data and resources between countries in order to assess the problem in an integrated way. For example, the developed countries, such as the U.S., can share high resolution topographic datasets with the developing countries instead of making them pay for it. This can be done in the future, for example, with the SRTM high resolution data. In addition to introducing uncertainty into the results of models, GIS data can also serve a useful purpose in the communication of information to the general public as well as other stakeholders in risk management and vulnerability studies. In terms of communication, the creation of maps will serve as visual stimuli to capture people‟s attention and make them more aware of the hazards which can potentially affect them. GIS can also be used to store information about the social and economic factors which are present in a population. For example, this data can be used in conjunction with flood inundation scenarios to determine which parts of the population will have the highest social vulnerability and which parts will not. Some of the main issues that can arise when uncertainty is transferred from data to the results will now be discussed briefly. For example, legal implications can arise where the


15 The communication challenge of science and its uncertainties

results of models are inaccurate (in terms of future predictions). This can influence future planning and management of an area which is perceived to be at risk. Allocation of financial resources for development is important but needs to be justified. Therefore, it is important that models should be reliable. Ground-truth data needs to be used in addition to the RS data in order to ensure that final project decisions have a higher accuracy. It is therefore important to get all stakeholders to trust the results of the research being undertaken by scientists.

5. a) An example: The case study of Trinidad and Tobago

- There are data constraints on hydrological modeling of river catchments in Trinidad

- DEMs can be created either by coarse resolution contour data or SRTM 90 m data

which both have uncertainty associated with them

- Density of rain gauge and stream gauge networks are sparse

- The acquisition of data is limited by financial and institutional constraints

- Recently, floods have become a major problem in Trinidad due to climate change

effects and land use changes. There have been more intense rainfall events and longer

periods of drought. In addition, land use changes have been accelerated such as

deforestation and urbanization

- Modeling effects of land use change and climate change on flood risk will be important

to get an idea of populations which will be more vulnerable in the future so that better

plans can be developed to deal with the effects of floods in the future.

- The data uncertainty which exists in natural hazards and climate change research

is therefore very important to consider in this research since it will ultimately impact on how

the results are communicated to the population as well as on what plans are developed for

the future to deal with the effects of possible flood inundation extents.

5.b) Research questions:

How can there be better communication between developed and developing countries to facilitate the sharing or accessibility of remote sensing data in order to reduce uncertainties in research?

6. The communication challenge of science and its uncertainties

The problem of uncertainty in communication, of any sort, about climate change, hazards, and land use operates on a variety of levels. The largest such challenge, however, is bridging the communications gap between the researchers and scholars studying this problem and citizens, which could include anyone from the average resident of an urbanized area to an elected official with the power to make policy. A variety of writers and academics have called, especially when it comes to science-related matters, for researchers to make more of an effort to make their work understandable to the public and engage in the political debate on this topic that rages in many countries and jurisdictions (Manning, 2003). A large part of that effort involves communicating the role that uncertainty plays in our understanding of the intersections of


16 The communication challenge of science and its uncertainties

climate change, hazards, and land use to a variety of publics or audiences. Those audiences include the general public, journalists, and policymakers. The challenges when explaining uncertainty around climate change to the public are complex, but not particularly different from attempting to communicate any complex issue with the public. When crafting any message, including environmental messages, it is essential for the communications experts to work closely with the scientific experts to create an accurate and effective message (Bator & Cialdini, 2000). As Bator and Cialdini note in their study about environmental public service announcements, these messages need to go through repeated tests to ensure their efficacy. This process is continuous and may seem frustrating, at times, but is essential if the important information gathered by the scientific community is to lead to meaningful behavioral change. Consideration must also be paid to the work of Petty and Cacioppo (1986) on the elaboration likelihood model (ELM), which seeks to explain the different ways that people may change their behaviors when confronted with information. ELM points to two main ways in which people may respond to a message by changing their behavior. The direct route involves an individual being presented with new information that upon careful consideration, which requires both the ability and the motivation to be interested in the message, leads to the preferred action or behavioral change. The peripheral route, which doesn‟t rely on the logic of the message, however, can be the result of any number of factors, including items as apparently trivial as the attractiveness of the message. Since Petty and Cacioppo first wrote about ELM in the mid-1980s, many other academics have contributed to this scholarship and this is just one of many possible approaches that should be considered, but it could serve as a starting point for scholars from other disciplines interested in better communicating their ideas to a variety of publics. It is equally essential to consider the channel (TV, radio, Internet, print, etc.) through which the public is exposed to this message. One important means of communicating information and knowledge about climate change is through the news media and its increasingly varied channels. For years, there has been a sense that the relationship between journalists and scientists is fraught. While not perfect and always in need of improvement, studies spanning more than three decades show that the gap in mutual understanding between researchers and journalists is narrower than assumed (Dunwoody & Scott, 1979; Peters et al., 2008), but there is always room for improvement (Ward & Jandciu, 2008). And as mentioned earlier, the need to improve the interactions between the news media and the research community is more acute than ever, particularly when it comes to climate change and hazards. One crucial and relatively simple step that scientists can take is to understand the types of stories the news media tends to be interested in at any given time and how the news media typically portrays those stories to their audiences. On the latter point, there is a vast body of research stemming from the work in framing (defined most accurately – by Entman (1993)) that shows that the news media prefers to tell stories through the prism of individuals or individual situation (episodic frames) than by connecting a story to broader societal themes (thematic frames). (Iyengar, 1991) When it comes to how the news media is covering stories related to climate change, a combination of decades of research into issue cycles for environmental stories have shown two distinct waves of interest in coverage. In essence, the first comes in response to an environmental threat or risk and the second coming when policymakers take steps to hopefully mitigate the risk. (Downs, 1972; Bowman & Hanaford, 1977; Trumbo, 1996; McComas & Shanahan, 1999; Shanahan, 2000) Research tracking coverage of climate change over the last decade suggests that the news media‟s focus is presently in the second peak of this cycle. (Deppa & Rowe, 2008) Furthermore, one factor that appears to increase news media coverage of stories related to climate change is its


17 A new proposal for integrating the study of climate change and hazards focusing on land

use

place on the local, national, and international political agenda. (Carvalho & Burgess, 2005; Gascoigne, 2008) This suggests that intense political debates may be an especially fertile opportunity for climate change researchers to engage the news media and, perhaps, the public in their work, but this will require a willingness to wade directly into politics. It also requires scientists to think systematically about how the news media and the public may understand their work in terms that are clear, understandable, and relatable given the constraints and challenges facing the news media. These constraints could range from specific groups and think tanks funded by corporations and other interested parties to target and undermine efforts to raise the public‟s awareness of and concern over climate change (McCright & Dunlap, 2000; Carpenter, 2001; Mooney, 2005) to the more general challenges confronted the news media as laid out by critical scholars like Herman and Chomsky (1988).

6.a) Research questions:

Much climate change and hazards research is funded by public funds, so why is this research and data not made available to more widely?

Given the crucial and timely nature of most climate change and hazards, how can scholars devote more time and consideration to effectively communicating their findings to the full range of effected and interested publics?

7. A new proposal for integrating the study of climate change and hazards focusing on land use

Land use is a result of the interaction of society with their environment through different historical moments. It is in this relationship where major conflicts arise, as the possession of the land and its resources, the presence of hazardous natural phenomena and their amplification due to changes in land cover, among others. Particularly in a context of climate change, hydroclimatic natural hazards, such as floods, landslides, drought, etc., are increasing in their occurrence. Proper land-use with planning and taking into account the risks will be an effective way to reduce the current impacts and those that could occur in the future. Within this context of change, the problems presented in previous sections, can become more complex over time. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct transdisciplinary studies which activate new areas of research and consequently will require new spaces where such researches will be developed. To this purpose, as a group initiative, we propose the creation of an advisor entity / advisory platform specialized in

analysis, evaluation and action proposals in land use related with climate change in all countries that make up the Americas. The aims of this entity will be:

To gather specialists from various disciplines with expertise in different aspects related to the land use, territorial and environmental issues.

To assess information on legislation, policies and territorial or land use plans for monitoring, analysis and evaluation. - To generate knowledge and proposals for action to resolve specific problems that will be promoted by the entity and in specific cases that could be required by the participating countries.


18 A new proposal for integrating the study of climate change and hazards focusing on land

use

- Provide advice to national, provincial, local NGOs and other organizations that request it.

a) Scales of study and action:

The entity will provide advice on matters according with the following scales:

• cross-border and regional Issues.

• Issues of national, provincial and local levels.

b) Areas of research and advice: To start the activities of this entity, we propose the following lines of research and advice as they were covered in preceding paragraphs of this document: • Changes in land use / land cover: Study the impacts and incentive constantly monitoring of the changes and their influence in natural hazards. • Land use planning, with emphasis on urban areas: study the planning in relation with transport, green areas, infrastructure, hazards, and its impacts related with climate change. • Relationship between land use and natural hazards: study the land use zoning that incorporates hazards and considers the impacts of climate change towards a disaster risk reduction. • Relationship between social vulnerability and land use: study how to reduce social vulnerability and the access for lands without risk towards a disaster risk reduction. Special importance will be given to informal settlements related with poverty. • Creation of databases in Geographic Information Systems: Gather information for data bases in land use and develop plans to reduce the uncertainty of data. • Communication and research: An office that constantly studies and evaluates the science between communication studies and public policy makers in reference to the outputs of the entity. It is recommended a future expansion of the areas to issues related to other natural hazards (for example earthquakes) and technological hazards. Finally, it is important that this advisory entity has representations in each participant country in order to facilitate the interaction and communication.


19 References

Acknowledgements -Special thanks to the NSF Award # OISE-0921613 for making it possible the exchange of experiences and meeting in Panama City. -Thanks to Patricia Solis, Sylvia Wilson, Astrid Ng and all Staff for your attention and kindness. -Thanks a lot to Cristina Morey (Uruguay-Argentina) for your help in communicating the ideas.

References

Land use/land cover changes Angelsen, A. & Kaimowitz, D. (1999). Rethinking the causes of deforestation: lessons from economic models. The World Bank Research Observer 14(1), 73-98. Chavez, A., 2009. Public policy and spatial variation in land use and land cover in the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon. Dissertation Manuscript. University of Florida, Gainesville. De Sherbinin, A. (2004). A Guide to Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) Research: A CIESIN Thematic Guide. The CIESIN Web site: sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/tg. Fearnside, P.M. (2000). Global warming and tropical land-use change: greenhouse gas emissions from biomass burning, decomposition and soils in forest conversion, shifting cultivation and secondary vegetation. Climatic Change 46(1-2), 115-158. Frohn, R.C., McGwire, C., Dale, H. & Estes, J.E. (1996). Using satellite remote sensing analysis to evaluate a socio-economic and ecological model of deforestation in Rondônia, Brazil. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 17(16), 3233-3255. Futemma, C. & Brondizio, E. (2003). Land reform and land-use changes in the lower Amazon: implications for agricultural intensification. Human Ecology 31 (3), 369-402 Geist, H.J. & Lambin, E.F. (2001). What drives tropical deforestation? A metaanalysis of proximate and underlying causes of deforestation based on subnational scale study evidence. LUCC Report Series N. 4. : University of Louvain. Geist, H.J. & Lambin, E.F. (2002). Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. BioScience 52 (2), 143-150. Geist, H.J. & Lambin, E.F. (2003). Regional differences in tropical deforestation. Environment 10 (6), 22-36. Gutman, G., Janetos, A., Justice, C., Moran, E., Mustard, J., Rindfuss, R., Skole, D., & Turner II, B.L. (Eds.). (2004). Land change science: observing, monitoring, and understanding trajectories of change on the earth’s surface. New York: Kluwer. Hansen, M.C., DeFries, R.S., Townshend, J.R.G. & Sohlberg, G. (2000). Global Land Cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21(6-7), 1331-1364. IGBP-IHDP, (1999). Land-use and land-cover change, implementation strategy. IGBP Report 48/IHDP Report 10. Prepared by Scientific Steering Committee and International Project Office of LUCC. Stockholm and Bonn. Kaimowitz D. & Angelsen, A. (1998). Economic models of tropical deforestation: A review. Bogor, Indonesia: CIFOR. Keller, M., Silva-Dias. M.A., Nepstad, D., C. & Andreae, M. (2004). The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia: Analyzing Regional Land Use Change Effects. In R.S.


20 References

DeFries, G.P. Asner & R.A. Houghton (Eds.), Ecosystems and Land Use Change (pp. 321-34). Geophysical Monograph 153. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union. Lambin, E.F., Turner II, B.L., Geist, H.J., Agbola, S.B., Angelsen, A., Bruce, J.W., Coomes, O.T., Dirzo, R., Fischer, G., Folke, C., George, P.S., Homewood, K., Imbernon, J., Leemans, R., Li, X., Moran, E.F., Mortimore, M., Ramakrishnan, P.S., Richards, J.F., Skanes, H., Steffen, W., Stone, G.D., Svedin, U., Veldkamp, T.A., Vogel, C., & Xu, J. (2001). The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Global Environment Change 11, 261-269. Lambin, E.F. & Geist, H.J. (Eds.) (2006). Land-use and land-cover change: local processes to global impacts. Heidelberg: Springer Verlag. Mather, A.S. (2006). Land use policies. In H.J. Geist (Eds.), Our Earth’s changing land: An encyclopedia of land-use and land-cover change. Vol. 2 (pp.375-379).Westport, London: Greenwood Press. McCracken, S. Boucek, B. & Moran, E. (2002). Deforestation trajectories in a frontier region of the Brazilian Amazon. In S. Walsh & K. Crews-Meyer (Eds.), Linking people, place and policy: A GIScience approach (pp. 215-234). London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Moran, E., Brondizio, E., Mausel, P & Wu, Y. (1994). Integrating Amazonian vegetation, land use and satellite data. BioScience 44(5), 329-338. Nelson, G.C. & Geoghegan, J. (2002). Deforestation and land use change: Sparse Data Environments. Agricultural Economics, 27, 201-216 Pacheco, P. (2002). Deforestation and forest degradation in Lowland Bolivia. In C.H. Wood & R. Porro (Eds.), Land use and deforestation in the Amazon (pp.66-94). Gainesville: University of Florida Press. Peralta, P. & Mather, P. (2000). An analysis of deforestation patterns in the extractive reserves of Acre, Amazonia from satellite imagery: A landscape ecological approach. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 21, 2555-2570. Perz, S. (2002). The changing social contexts of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Social Science Quarterly 83(1), 34-52. Seto, K., Kaufmann, R. & Woodcock, C. (2002). Monitoring land use change in the Pearl River Delta, China. In S. Walsh & K. Crews-Meyer (Eds.), Linking People, Place and Policy: A GIScience Approach (pp. 69-90). London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Skole, D.L.; Chomentowski, W.A.; Sallas, W.A. & Nobre, A.D. (1994). Physical and Human Dimensions of Deforestation in Amazonia. BioScience, 44, 314-322. Southworth, J., Munroe, D. & Tucker, C. (2002). The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity. Agricultural Economics, 27(3), 355-369.

Turner II, B.L., Meyer, W.B. & Skole, D.L. (1994). Global land use/land cover change: toward an integrated study. Ambio 23 (1): 91-95.

Turner II, B.L., Geoghagen, J.G. & Foster, D.R. (2004). Integrated land change science and tropical deforestation in the Southern Yucatán: final frontiers. Oxford: Clarendon Press/Oxford University Press. Walsh, S.; Evans, T.P.; Welsh, W.F. Entwisle, B. & Rindfuss, R.R. (1999). Scale dependent relationships between the population and environment in northeast Thailand. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 65(1), 97-105. Walsh, S. & K. Crews-Meyer, K. (Eds.). (2002). Linking people, place and policy: A GIScience approach (pp.). London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Walsh, S.J., Bilsborrow, R.E., McGregor, S.J., Frizzelle, B.G., Messina, J.P., Pan, W.K.Y., Crews-Meyer, K.A., Taff, G.N. & Baquero, F. (2003). Integration of longitudinal surveys, remote sensing time-series, and spatial analyses: approaches for linking people and place. In J. Fox, R.R. Rindfuss, S.J. Walsh & V. Mishra (Eds.),


21 References

People and the Environment: Approaches for Linking Household and Community Surveys to Remote Sensing and GIS (pp. 91-130). Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Wood, C. H. & Porro, R. (Eds.) (2002). Deforestation and land use in the Amazon. Gainesville: University of Florida Press.

Land use planning

American Planning Association. What is Planning? http://www.planning.org/aboutplanning/whatisplanning.htm

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Terminology of disaster risk reduction.

http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm

Mattingly, Shirley. Advances in Seismic Risk Management in Developing Countries. 12th World Conference

on Earthquake Engineering (12WCEE). 2000.

Gakenheimer, R., Molina, L., Sussman, J., Zegras, C., et al. “The MCMA Transportation System: Mobility and

Air Pollution”, Chapter 6 of Molina L and Molina M Air Quality in the Mexico Megacity, 213-284. Kluwer

Academic Publishers, 2002.

Innovative land use and public transport policy : The case of Curitiba, Brazil. J. Rabinovitch, 1999.

J Rabinovitch, J Leitman, Urban Planning in Curitiba. The sustainable urban development reader. 2004.

Land use planning and risk of disasters

Blaikie P., Cannon T., Davis I., Wisnwer B. (1994): Vulnerabilidad. El entorno social, político y económico de

los desastres. ITDG – LA RED, Colombia.

Cutter L.S., Boruf B., Lynn W. 2003. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards, in: Social Science

Quarterly, vol. 84, No 2, June 2003, p. 242-361

Cardona O.D. 1993. Manejo ambiental y prevención de desastres, in: Los desastres no son naturales. Ed. La

Red.

D‟Ercole, R.; Hardy, S.; Pascale M., Jerémy R., 2009 – Urban vulnerabilities in Andean Countries. General Introduction, in: Bulletin de l‟Institut Français d‟Études Andines, Tome 38, Vol. Nº 3, IFEA, Lima – Perú. EIRD (2008): La gestión del riesgo hoy. Estrategia Internacional de Reducción de Desastres, Organización de Naciones Unidas. EIRD (2004) Anexo I: Términos principales relativos a la reducción del riesgo de desastres. Vivir con el Riesgo Informe mundial sobre iniciativas para la reducción de desastres. Estrategia Internacional de Reducción de Desastres, Organización de Naciones Unidas. González, Silvia (2009): Ciudad visible vs. ciudad invisible. Gestión urbana y manejo de inundaciones en la baja cuenca del arroyo Maldonado (Ciudad de Buenos Aires). Tesis de Doctorado en Geografía. Buenos Aires, Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. HC, 2008. article revised at june 23, 2010 http://www.hurricanekatrinanews.org/

Lavell, Allan (1998): Desastres y desarrollo: Hacia un entendimiento de las formas de construcción social de

un desastre: el caso del Huracán Mitch en Centroamérica. En Del desastre al desarrollo sostenible: El caso de

Mith en Centroamérica. Garita y Nowalski Compiladores. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Washington

D.C.

Lavell, Allan (2002): “Desastre urbanos: Una visión global”. En http://www.desenredando.org.ar

Mansilla, Elizabeth (2001): Riesgo y Ciudad. Universidad Autónoma de México, División de estudios de

posgrado, Facultad de Arquitectura. D.F. México.

http://www.planning.org/aboutplanning/whatisplanning.htm

http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm

http://www.hurricanekatrinanews.org/

http://www.desenredando.org.ar/


22 References

Natenzon, Claudia (1998): “Riesgo, vulnerabilidad e incertidumbre. Desastres por inundaciones en Argentina”

Ponencia presentada en Seminario: Problemas ambientales e vulnerabilidades. Abordagens integradoras para

o campo da saude publica. 25 de junio, 1998, Río de Janeiro, Brasil.

Natenzon y Viand (2005): “Gestión de los desastres en Argentina: Instituciones nacionales involucradas en la

problemática de las inundaciones.”. En América Latina: Sociedade e meio ambiente. Série por uma Geografia

Latino Americana. Compiladores: Lemos, Sanchez Ross y Luchiari. Departamento de Geografia, Universidade

de Sao Paulo.

Nuñez-Villalba J., Demoraes F., 2009 - The assessment of road network vulnerability as a tool for understand and mitigate territorial vulnerability: the example of La Paz (Bolivia), in: Bulletin de l‟Institut Français d‟Études Andines, Tome 38, Vol. Nº 3, IFEA, Lima – Perú,

Ríos, D. y González, S. (2007): “Espacio urbano y riesgo de desastres en áreas inundables. Dos casos de

estudio para el centro y la periferia del Aglomerado Gran Buenos Aires” En Curso de postgrado Tratamiento

de catástrofes en condiciones subdesarrolladas. Riesgo, vulnerabilidad social e incertidumbre FLACSO,

Buenos Aires.

UNFPA, 2007 – État de la population mondiale 2007. Libérer le potentiel de la croissance urbaine – http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2007/french/introduction.html

Veyret, Yvette (2008): Os Riscos. O homem como agressor e victima do medio ambiente. Editora contexto, Sao Pablo, Brasil. Viand, Jesica (2009): “El antes de desastre”. La construcción social del riesgo en la ciudad de Santa Fe y la inundación del 2003. Tesis de Licenciatura en Geografía, UBA.

Wilches-Chaux, 1993. La vulnerabilidad global, in: Los desastres no son naturales. Ed. La Red.

Hardy, S. 2009. Ruptura en el abastecimiento de agua potable. Sistema Hampaturi-Pampahasi, La Paz enero-

febrero de 2008. in: Bulletin de l‟IFEA 38(3), Lima, p. 545 – 560.

Wilches Chaux, Gustavo (1998): Auge caída y levantada de Felipe Pinillo, mecánico y soldador o yo voy a

correr el riesgo. Guía de la red para la gestión local del riesgo. ITDG-LA RED, Quito, Ecuador.

Land use and GIS

Agumya, A., Hunter, G.J., 1999. Assessing „„fitness for use‟‟ of geographic information: what risk are we

prepared to accept in our decisions? In: Lowell, K., Jaton, A. (Eds.), Spatial Accuracy Assessment: Land

Information Uncertainty in Natural Resources. Ann Arbor Press, Chelsea, MI, pp. 35–43.

Bates, P. D., Marks, K. J., and Horritt, M. S. Optimal use of high-resolution topographic data in flood inundation

models. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES. Hydrol. Process. 17, 537–557 (2003).

Dulal, K. N., Takeuchi, K. and Ishidaira, H. 2006. A Framework for the Analysis of Uncertainty in the

Measurement of Precipitation Data: a Case Study for Nepal. Agricultural Engineering

International: the CIGR Ejournal. Manuscript LW 06 010. Vol. VIII. September, 2006

Fassnacht, K., S., Cohen, W. B. and Spies, T. A. 2006. Key issues in making and using satellite-based maps in

ecology: A Primer. Forest Ecology and Management 222 (2006) 167–181.

Goward S, Williams D. 1997. Landsat and Earth system science: development of terrestrial monitoring.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 63: 887–900.

Hansen M, DeFries R. 2004. Detecting long term forest change using continuous fields of tree cover maps

from 8 km AVHRR data for the years 1982–1999. Ecosystems in press.

http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2007/french/introduction.html


23 References

Harris, P. M., and S. J. Ventura. 1995. The integration of geographic data with remotely sensed imagery to

improve classification in an urban area. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 61(8):993–998.

Justice C. O, Townshend J. R. G, Vermote E. F, Masouka E., Wolfe R. E, Saleous S, Roy D. P, Morisette J. T.

2002. An overview of MODIS land data processing and product status. Remote Sensing of Environment 83: 3–

15.

Rodriguez, E., C.S. Morris, J. Belz, E. Chapin, J. Martin, W. Daffer, and S. Hensley, 2005. An Assessment of

the SRTM Topographic Products, Technical Report JPL D-31639, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena,

California

Valeriano, M. M., Kuplich, T. M., Storino, M., Amaral, B. D., Mendes, J. N. and Lima, D. J. Modeling small

watersheds in Brazilian Amazonia with shuttle radar topographic mission-90m data Computers & Geosciences

32 (2006) 1169–1181

Comunication

Bator, R.J. & R.B. Cialdini. (2000). The application of persuasion theory to the development of effective pro-

environmental public service announcements. Journal of Social Issues, 56 (3), 527-541.

Bowman, J., & Hanaford, K. (1977). Mass media and the environment since Earth Day, Journalism Quarterly,

54, 160-164.

Carpenter, C. (2001). Businesses, green groups and the media: The role of non-governmental organizations in

the climate change debate. International Affairs, 77 (2), 313 – 328.

Carvalho, A. & Burgess, J.(2005). Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985 –

2003. Risk Analysis, 25 (6), 1457 – 1469.

Deppa, J. & Rowe, D. (2008). Exploring coverage of global warming in North America, Europe and Asia.

Presented at the AEJMC Conference in Chicago, IL, August 2008

Downs, A. (1972). Up and down with ecology: The issue-attention cycle. The Public Interest, 28, 38-50.

Dunwoody, S. & B. Scott. (1982). Scientists as mass media sources. Journalism Quarterly. 59 (1), 52-59.

Entman, R. (2003). Cascading Activation: Contesting the White House‟s frame after 9/11. Political

Communication. 20, 415-432.

Gascoigne, T. (2008). Climate change: “The” issue in the Australian National Election 2007? Science

Communication, 29 (4), 522-531.

Herman, E. & N. Chomsky. (1988). Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of Mass Media. New York:

Pantheon.

Iyengar, S. (1991). Is anyone responsible?: How television frames political issues. Chicago: University of

Chicago Press.

Manning, M. (2003). The difficulty of communicating uncertainty: An editorial comment. Climatic Change, 61, 9

16.

McComas, K. & Shanahan, J. (1999). Telling stories about climate change: Measuring the impact of narratives

on negative cycles. Communication Research, 26 (1), 30 – 57.

McCright, A. & R. Dunlap. (2000). Challenging global warming as a social problem: An analysis of the

conservative movement‟s counter-claims. Social Problems, 47 (4), 499 – 522.


24 References

Mooney, C. (2005). Some like it hot. Mother Jones. May/June 2005.

Peters, H., Brossard, D., de Cheveigne, S., Dunwoody, S., Kallfass, M., Miller, S. & S. Tsuchida. (2008).

Science-media interface: It‟s time to reconsider. Science Communication. 30 (2), 266-276.

Petty, R.E. & J.T. Cacioppo. (1986). The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. Advances in experimental

psychology, 19, 123-205.

Shanahan, J. (2000, June). Cycles upon cycles: The evolution of media attention to global climate change.

Paper presented at Climate Change Communication Conference in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.

Trumbo, C. (1996). Constructing climate change: Claims and frames in U.S. news coverage of an

environmental issue. Public Understanding of Science, 5 (1996), 269 – 283.

Ward, S. & E. Jandciu. (2008). Challenges in communicating science to Canadians. Media Development. 2008

(3), 12-16.

land use, planning and risk in the context of climate ...€¦ · monitor local land change...

Documents