land use scenario developer lusdr a stochastic microsimulation of household and business location to...
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Land Use Scenario DevelopeRLand Use Scenario DevelopeR
LUSDRLUSDR
A Stochastic Microsimulation of A Stochastic Microsimulation of
Household and Business Location to Household and Business Location to
Support Strategic Land Use and Support Strategic Land Use and
Transportation PlanningTransportation Planning
Presentation to PNREC 2006Brian Gregor
Transportation Planning Analysis UnitMay 11, 2006
Presentation Outline
• Background:
– Planning and modeling concepts related to LUSDR.
– Description of the Jackson County regional problem solving study.
• Description of LUSDR
• Results
• Next steps
Short Background on Land Short Background on Land Use and Transportation Use and Transportation Planning and Modeling Planning and Modeling ConceptsConcepts
Land Use and Transportation Planning
Legend
County
Urban Growth Area
Poss. Urban Reserve
Highway
Poss. Highway
Urban development goesin urban growth boundaries.
County lands arepredominantly resourcezoning and very low densitydevelopment.
Urban reserves are future sourcesof land for inclusion into urbangrowth boundaries. They affect future transportation demand.Highway location affects
land development patterns.
Approaches to Transportation and Approaches to Transportation and Land Use ModelingLand Use Modeling
• Standard transport models assume one invariant land use allocation unresponsive to transportation.
• With integrated land use and transport models, land use allocations vary with transportation, but most are equilibrium models.
• LUSDR also varies land use with transportation, but there are many possible solutions.
Why Evaluate Alternative Land Use Why Evaluate Alternative Land Use Patterns? Patterns?
• The overall number of trips may not change much, but the patterns of trip origins and destinations will.
• Roadway traffic can be very different depending on the land use assumptions.
• Assessment of many plausible land use patterns help identify potential problems.
O
O
O O
D
D
D D
Modeling Multiple Scenarios to Assess Risks
A
B
A
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
05
15
25
Traffic Volume
Num
ber
of
Sce
na
rios
Num
ber
of
Sce
na
rios
B
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
05
15
25
35
Traffic Volume
• Goal of RPS: To achieve regional consensus on where urban reserves should be designated to accommodate a doubling of population.
• Modeling Objectives
– Develop a moderately large set of plausible future land use patterns.
– Model the effects of the different land use patterns on the transportation system.
– Identify key features of land use patterns affecting transportation performance.
Jackson County Regional Problem Solving Jackson County Regional Problem Solving (RPS) Study(RPS) Study
What is LUSDR and What is LUSDR and How Does It Work?How Does It Work?
LLand and UUse se SScenario cenario DDevelopeevelopeRR
• Creates variation through stochastic microsimulation.
• Stochastic means that there is a random component to the model but average behavior is replicated.
• Microsimulation means that individual household, business and development decisions are modeled.
Stochastic MicrosimulationStochastic Microsimulation
= all of these places meet requirements
Shopping center might be located here in one simulation
Might be located here in another simulation
residentialdevelopments
generatehouseholds
loc type
generateemployment
estab.
generateresidential develop-
ments
generatebusiness develop-
ments
selectdevelopments by
period
employmentestablishments
businessdevelopments
households
developmentsto site
sitedevelopments
developmentsby taz
balancesupply & demand
developmentssited inperiod
update landinventory
land inventorycomprehensive
plancompatibility
area
unit price
Iterate throughall periods
Iterate until all developments are sited
sizeworkers
age of headincome
tenurebldg. type
emp typenum emp
cluster type
num hhdev type
loc typearea
unit price
num empdev type
loc typearea
unit price dev perioddev period
loc typearea
unit pricelocation
taz attributesaffecting sitepreferences
slopeinterchange
traffic exp.accessibility
updateaccessibilities
population byage cohort
KEY
function
data
attribute
Start with Population by Age & Start with Population by Age & Total Population GrowthTotal Population Growth
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84
Population by Age
Age
Pro
po
rtio
n
0.0
00
.01
0.0
20
.03
0.0
40
.05
0.0
6
HhSize Worker AgeOfHead Income Ownrent BldgtypeHh1 h2 w2 a1 i4 rent SFDHh2 h2 w1 a4 i2 rent SFDHh3 h2 w3 a1 i2 rent A5PHh4 h3 w2 a2 i3 own SFDHh5 h1 w2 a2 i1 own SFDHh6 h4 w4 a2 i5 own SFDHh7 h2 w3 a1 i3 rent SFDHh8 h2 w1 a2 i5 own SFDHh9 h2 w3 a3 i1 rent SFDHh10 h2 w1 a3 i5 own SFDHh11 h2 w1 a3 i4 rent SFAHh12 h3 w2 a4 i4 rent A24Hh13 h4 w3 a2 i4 rent MHHh14 h2 w2 a2 i2 own SFD
Example of Household Records Example of Household Records Generated by LUSDRGenerated by LUSDR
Comparisons of Observed and Comparisons of Observed and Estimated Household Building Estimated Household Building Type ProportionsType Proportions
Building Type Categories
1990 Census
1990 Estimated
2000 Census
2000 Estimated
Single Family Detached
63.9 63.7 63.9 63.8
Single Family Attached
2.2 3.1 2.2 3.1
2-4 Unit Apartment 7.6 8.0 8.3 7.7
5+ Unit Apartment 8.0 8.7 9.3 8.6
Mobile Home 17.5 16.0 14.9 16.4
Other 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4
Assign to Assign to DevelopmentsDevelopments
HhSize Worker AgeOfHead Income Ownrent Bldgtype DevIdHh1 h1 w1 a1 i5 own SFDH SFDH-161Hh2 h1 w1 a1 i3 own MHpark MHpark-1Hh3 h1 w1 a1 i4 rent SFDM SFDM-126Hh4 h1 w1 a1 i1 rent SFDM SFDM-207Hh5 h1 w1 a1 i2 rent SFDM SFDM-758Hh6 h1 w1 a1 i2 rent SFDM SFDM-660
Development Sizes of SFDM Subdivisions
Subdivision Size
Nu
mb
er
0 100 200 300 400 500
01
00
30
05
00
Employment Generated from Employment Generated from HouseholdsHouseholds
• Total employment calculated from household workers
• Total split jointly into 2-digit NAICS types and cluster type (see below)
• Employment split into establishments (firms) based on size distributions
• Establishments grouped into clusters based on size distributions
Clusters Identified by Analyzing Tax Clusters Identified by Analyzing Tax Assessment, Buildings and Assessment, Buildings and Employment DataEmployment Data
#S#S#S
#S#S
#S #S#S
#S#S#S#S#S
#S#S #S#S #S
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#S
#S
#S#S#S#S
#S
Generate Employment Establishments Generate Employment Establishments and Put in Developmentsand Put in Developments
Histogram of Observed and Simulated Firm Sizes
log(employment)
De
nsi
ty
0 2 4 6 8
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Id DevType LocType NumEmp UnitArea TotArea UnitPrice Period ACC-3 ACC EmpGrp6 3 6256.882 22524.775 9.133772 p4 ACC-1 ACC EmpGrp6 98 6256.882 735809.323 9.133772 p1 ACC-12 ACC EmpGrp6 1 6256.882 7508.258 9.133772 p2 ACC-14 ACC EmpGrp6 2 6256.882 15016.517 9.133772 p4 ACC-8 ACC EmpGrp6 2 6256.882 15016.517 9.133772 p3 ACC-4 ACC EmpGrp6 6 6256.882 45049.550 9.133772 p1
selectdevelopments by
period
developmentsto site
identifycandidate
tazs
developmentsby taz
balancesupply & demand
developmentssited inperiod
update landinventory
land inventory
comprehensiveplan
compatibility
Iterate throughall periods
Iterate until all developments are sited
loc typearea
unit pricelocation
taz attributesaffecting sitepreferences
updateaccessibilities
slope
steep slopeinterchange
distancetrafficexposure
local hhaccessibility
local empaccessibility
regional hhaccessibility
regional empaccessibility
locationtype
area
unit price
Iterate through developments
candidate tazs
selectpreferred taz
calculatelocation probabilities
locationprobabilities
KEY
function
data
attribute
Candidates identified based on area in plan designations and plan compatibility.
Random draw from candidate tazs weighted by location probabilities.
For each taz, the area demanded in each plan category is allocated to developments.
Find suitable TAZs based on having Find suitable TAZs based on having enough land with compatible planning enough land with compatible planning categoriescategories
ModelType Res Com Ind Os Rur A5P 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.0 0.00 SFA 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.0 0.00 MHpark 1.00 0.50 0.20 0.0 0.00 MHsub 1.00 0.50 0.10 0.0 0.01 SFDH 1.00 0.50 0.10 0.0 0.01 SFDM 1.00 0.50 0.10 0.0 0.01 ACC 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 ADM 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 AGF 0.00 0.25 1.00 0.0 1.00 CNS 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.0 0.00 EDU 0.75 0.25 0.00 0.0 0.00 FIN 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00FIN_CLUST 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 HLH 0.30 1.00 0.20 0.0 0.00HLH_CLUST 0.30 1.00 0.20 0.0 0.00 INF 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 MFG 0.00 0.25 1.00 0.0 0.00MFG_CLUST 0.00 0.25 1.00 0.0 0.00
ModelType Res Com Ind Os Rur MIN 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.0 1.00 MNG 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 OSV 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00OSV_CLUST 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 PRF 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00PRF_CLUST 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 PUB 0.75 1.00 0.50 0.0 0.00 REC 0.20 1.00 0.00 0.1 0.00 REL 0.00 0.75 0.50 0.0 0.00 RST 0.10 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00RST_CLUST 0.10 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 RTL 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00RTL_CLUST 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.0 0.00 TRN 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.0 0.00 UTL 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.0 0.00 WHL 0.00 0.25 1.00 0.0 0.00WHL_CLUST 0.00 0.25 1.00 0.0 0.00
Plan Compatibility Ratings
Construction & Manufacturing Preference Probabilities
Retail Preference Probabilities
ResultResultss
How to Interpret the Shapes ofHow to Interpret the Shapes ofBox Percentile PlotsBox Percentile Plots
3600
037
000
3800
039
000
Em
ploy
men
t
center line shows the
medianvalue
fifty percent of thevalues are between the
top and bottom horizontal lines
top and bottomshow the range
of values
the width indicatesthe relative frequencyof the value
5
3000
5000
7000
9000
1: Eagle Point
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
3000
4000
5000
6000
2: White City
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
8000
1200
016
000
2000
0 3: Central Point
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
2000
3000
4000
5000
4: Jacksonville
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
1400
018
000
5: West Medford
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
2000
030
000
4000
0
6: East Medford
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
4500
5500
7: Phoenix
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9 3500
4000
4500
5000
8: Talent
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
1000
012
000
1400
0
9: Ashland
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
Comparison of Households for Runs Starting at 2002(black) and 2030(red)(horizontal red line = 2030 base)
1000
3000
5000
1: Eagle Point
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
6000
1000
014
000
2: White City
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
4000
8000
1200
0
3: Central Point
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
1000
1400
1800
4: Jacksonville
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
2500
030
000
3500
0
5: West Medford
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
2500
035
000
4500
0
6: East Medford
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
2000
4000
6000
7: Phoenix
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
2000
3000
4000
8: Talent
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
9000
1000
011
000
9: Ashland
p1 p3 p5 p7 p9
Comparison of Employment for Runs Starting at 2002(black) and 2030(red)(horizontal red line = 2030 base)
Next Next StepsSteps
ObjectivesObjectives
• To make LUSDR a tool that can help with land use forecasting and strategic planning throughout the state.
• To integrate LUSDR with transportation models for metropolitan and small urban areas.
• To connect LUSDR models with the next statewide model.
TasksTasks
• Incorporate densification, mixed use development, and redevelopment into LUSDR.
• Fully connect LUSDR with travel demand models.
• Get data from more places and develop transferable components.
• Develop an interface and standard graphical outputs.