lands' end: sell-off following 4th quarter provides exclusive opportunity with 39% upside

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 Lands’ End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)| Equity Analysis Sell-Off Following 4 th Quarter Provides Exclusive Opportunity for Undervalued Company with Growing Margins and a V ariety of Growth Intentions (40% Upside)  Parent Company Sears Overshadowing Lands’ End’s Image, Leading to Market Mispricing Long Stock Pitch and Valuation  Jung-Y ung Jona than Chang | February 11, 2015

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  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)| Equity Analysis

    Sell-Off Following 4th Quarter Provides Exclusive Opportunity for Undervalued Company with Growing Margins and a Variety of Growth Intentions (40% Upside) Parent Company Sears Overshadowing Lands Ends Image, Leading to Market Mispricing

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Jung-Yung Jonathan Chang | February 11, 2015

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Table of Contents

    I. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 3

    II. COMPANY OVERVIEW 7

    III. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW.. 16

    IV. APPENDIX.. 22

  • Industry Overview | Consumer Retail and Products

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    3

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Internet Expansion Boosting Apparel Retailer Sales

    Industry Overview

    4Sources: Bloomberg, John Buzolits & Poonam Goyal

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    E-commerce now makes up 6.6% of US retail sales which is up from slightly less than 2% from a decade ago. Moving online allows

    retailers to be able to access a larger consumer base and boost awareness of the products. It builds brand recognition and can help to

    get rid of excess inventory. These sales have lead to a boost in apparel retailers sales.

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Global Oversupply of Cotton Leading to Decreased Pricing

    Industry Overview

    5Sources: Bloomberg, Capital IQ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Cotton has decreased dramatically and have supported an increase in margins for apparel retailers. However, many other factors are

    influencing retailers margins. For instance, online shopping requires retailers to take lower margins, Asias higher wages, and higher

    ground shipping rates in the United States will all prove to be potential risks to consider for the whole industry.

    0.5

    0.55

    0.6

    0.65

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    0.75

    0.8

    0.85

    0.9

    0.95

    1

    2/1/2014 4/3/2014 6/3/2014 8/3/2014 10/3/2014 12/3/2014 2/2/2015

    ICE:TT (Cotton) Pricing

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    E-Commerce Surge Resulting in Smaller Stores and More Closing

    Industry Overview

    6Sources: Bloomberg, John Buzolits & Poonam Goyal

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    There has been a rise in competition and a surge in online shopping which have been forcing some smaller retailers to exit the

    industry. Consolidation seems to be a fairly prominent factor in the industry. With less opportunity for growth, a focus on margins

    may be important. American Eagle plans to close 150 stores in the next 3 years while Abercrombie & Fitch plans to close 60 in

    coming years. Aeropostale and Express have similar plans.

  • Company Overview | Lands End

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    7

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Take care of the customer, take care of the employee, and the rest will take care of itself. Guiding Principle by Gary Comer, Founder

    Company Overview

    8Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Lands End, Inc. operates as a multi-channel retailer primarily in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company operates through

    two segments, Direct and Retail. It offers mens, womens, and kids apparel, outerwear, and swimwear; specialty apparel; accessories;

    footwear; and home products. The company sells its products through e-commerce Websites, direct mail catalogs, phone, or in-store

    computer kiosks, as well as standalone and dedicated stores. Lands End, Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Dodgeville,

    Wisconsin. Lands' End, Inc. operates independently of Sears Holdings Corporation as of April 04, 2014.

    0M

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    Mar-20-2014 May-20-2014 Jul-20-2014 Sep-20-2014 Nov-20-2014 Jan-20-2015

    Price - Volume Performance

    Volume Stock Price

    Beat 2Q earnings

    estimates by 113%

    Beat 3Q earnings

    estimates by 40%

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Qualitative Company Core Competencies

    9Sources: Company 10-K SEC Filing

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Large and Loyal Customer Base

    Innovative and Timeless Products

    Excellent Customer Service

    Lands End has a strong belief in customer service. Its had a successful track of improving customer service experience. For

    instance, they were the first apparel retailer to offer a toll-free number and e-commerce enabled website launched in 1995.

    Furthermore they incorporated features such as online chat, personalization features, and unconditional return policy. From 2006,

    2012 Lands End was recognized by National Retail Federation as one of the top retailers for customer service.

    Lands End focuses on developing its existing and prospective households through use of advertising identification. Routine

    updates and refining of customer lists before mailing of catalogs, emails allow monitoring of customer interests in a more

    interactive manner. The customer list is targeted in a way as the demographic characteristics match desirable attributes that the

    company is looking for. They are typically looking for the affluent, college-educated, professional and style-conscious women and

    men. In 2013, the average annual household income of the customer was approximately $103,000 with ~44% of customers within

    36-55 age group.

    Modern and quality fabrics are used to construct new products that have timeless style and good fit. Lands believes that the typical

    customer value quality and want to add classics to their wardrobe. It tries to balance a good mix of both new trends and classic

    looks. Their in-house team manages product specifications to provide consistent merchandise. As a vertically integrated retailer, all

    aspects of design, marketing and distribution is done in-house.

    Company Overview

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Overview of Sears Holdings and Lands End Relationship

    10Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website, Business Insider, WSJ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Since spinning off from Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:SHLD) on April 4, 2014, Lands End (NASDAQ:LE) has been

    facing skepticism on how it would operate, its debt levels, and a 48% ownership (which has now decreased to ~24%) by Sears CEO

    Edward Lambert. Despite being one of the top performing divisions that Sears had, it has generally been thought of as a good move

    for Lands End to separate itself from a suffering company that it had been a part of since being acquired in 2002. Lands End had

    been one of the companys most profitable divisions, however Sears simply needed the cash to keep itself sustainable. In a

    conversation between Mary Gilbert, an analyst with Imperial Capital LLC, and WSJ, she described Sears as getting rid of all the good

    stuff and leaving bondholders with the underperforming assets in reference to Sears recent spinoff of Lands End.

    -60%

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    -20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    Mar-20-2014 May-20-2014 Jul-20-2014 Sep-20-2014 Nov-20-2014 Jan-20-2015

    Absolute Performance: LE vs. SHLD

    Sears Holdings Corporation Lands' End, Inc.

    Company Overview

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    4Q Selloff of Lands End Stock Means its Now a Cheap Buy

    11Sources: Company 10-K SEC Filing, Bloomberg, Capital IQ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Post 4Q Selloff

    By taking a look at the numbers, it makes little sense why Lands End is trading at such a significant discount to peers and intrinsic

    valuation until the qualitative factors are analyzed further. Its association with Sears Holding and having Edward Lambert still

    influencing the company has provided a negative stigma to the company as investors see it difficult for Lands End to be profitable

    if Sears were to fully dissolve. These facts still overshadow the fact that the company has great numbers and sales growth

    opportunities that are outlined by its management team. It did make a mistake in its winter fashion trend. The recent selloff where

    Lands End saw its stock tumble from the price range of around $55 to $35 by no means seems justified. The trigger of the selloff

    was a performance announcement by management that its fourth quarter sales and margins (4Q usually represent around a third

    of the companys annual revenues) would be down. Considering the drop in the pricing, it could be assumed that the adjustment to

    sales targets was 36% (drop from $55 to $35) less than expected. However, realistically, its net merchandise sales and service

    revenues were around 4% lower than its 4Q results in 2013. Its gross margins actually slightly improved from around 43.9% up

    from 43.7%. Its net income fell 20 - 26% but this is mostly attributed towards new interest expense as the company understandably

    needed to take out debt after it spun-off from Sears. In the 3Q of 2013, the company had no debt at the time. Since the company

    was already trading at a discount due to the negative view of the new found debt, it is astonishing how analyst expectations did not

    already take into account the interest expense.

    With a forward P / E ratio of 14.5 x, Lands End is trading at more than a 50% discount to the mean of similar vertically

    integrated brands and even more so compared to internet retail companies. At the moment, LE shares appear to be by no means

    expensive; in fact, some would call it dirt cheap. For the majority of its time public since 2014, LE has traded fairly in line with its

    comparables average daily multiple. With the recent selloff and Lands End and a spike in investor sentiment over some its peer

    retail companies, it may be a very good opportunity to jump into Lands End before multiple expansion occurs. The market can

    certainly be described as having overreacted to the performance update in the 4th quarter and will eventually correct itself in the

    near future.

    Company Overview

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    4Q Selloff of Lands End Stock Means its Now a Cheap Buy

    12Sources: Bloomberg

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Company Overview

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Overlooked Gross Margin Growth and Increasing Profitability

    13Sources: Capital IQ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    In terms of its past 3 performance periods, revenue growth might not look the most attractive with a decline of 1.5% and then an

    increase of 1.2%. Furthermore, there has been repetitive news excerpts describing Lands End recent store closures. However there

    is always two sides to one argument. As a company going through a lot of restructuring following a spinoff from its parent company

    in which it had been with for the past 12 years, it is doubtful that the company will immediately begin focusing on growth

    opportunities and satisfying pessimistic investors. In reality, it has to restructure its company to meet a new set of objectives that has

    been established by management. In fact, the upside to stagnant growth is that the company has begun to cut a large of their COGS

    with a decrease by 3.3% followed by another decrease of 2.0%. This increase in profitability is a solid indicator that the company is it

    good financial shape and could continue to increase its margins in the future.

    52%

    53%

    54%

    55%

    56%

    1,400

    1,420

    1,440

    1,460

    1,480

    1,500

    1,520

    1,540

    1,560

    1,580

    1,600

    Feb 1 2013 Jan 31 2014 Oct 31 2014

    Total Revenue COGS % Sales

    Company Overview

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Change in CEO from Huber to Marchionni Reinventing Lands End Brand and Image

    14Sources:

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    The topic of historical stagnant growth leads well into the second point regarding the implementation of new CEO Federica

    Marchionni who was with Italian luxury fashion designer powerhouse Dolce & Gabanna for most of the last 14 years in which she

    was the president of the American division. As mentioned earlier, being part of Sears for such a long time has led to a damage of

    Lands Ends brand image. The brand is set for a repositioning and Ma rchionni may be just the right person to lead the change (or

    charge). The past CEO, Edgar Huber served his purpose in leading the company out of a mass restructuring change (leaving Sears)

    and its good that Lands End has now decided to focus more so on improving its brand. It is also interesting to note that LE

    received mixed customer reactions on its womens apparel particularly sweaters and knits indicating that some of LEs poor 4Q

    results could be attributed to poor designs and trend alignment. Marchionni experience in working for high class brands such as

    Ferrari, Samsung, Ericsson, and D&G will likely reinvigorate the brand and hopefully will have better judgment on fashion trends

    such as sweaters or knits. Paula Rosenblum, an analyst working in Retail Systems Research described Marchionni as all about the

    negotiations, she's all about opening channels, she's all about getting online being digitally astute. It's actually an interesting job for

    her because if she can turn that brand around, it'll be a great story."

    Edgar Huber Federica Marchionni

    Business Insider, Journal Sentinel, Google Images, Huffington Post, Lands End Website

    Company Overview

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    Segment Development and International Expansion

    15Sources:

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    In addition to managements plan in growing its Direct business segment through digital transformation and customization for each

    of its consumers, LE is pursuing numerous growth strategies which management has outlined. The executive has acknowledged that

    they neglected providing certain product offerings in the past and have expressed its interest in developing its footwear, handbags,

    leather goods, and fashion accessory lines. In combination with Marchionnis influence, this will likely be beneficial in turning around

    consumers perception of the brand to a classier image. They have also mentioned how they have experienced increasing productivity

    in both its retail and Business Outfitter/School Uniform segments and that expanding on these parts of the company would be

    likely. Its Business Outfitter division services tens of thousands of clients from major airlines to private schools across United States

    and Canada. Finally, management has detailed how it is looking to take all of its operations on an international basis. Currently, it

    operates in United States, Canada, Northern and Central Europe, and Japan. In addition to expanding its presence in these areas, it is

    also looking to go to other areas of Europe (such as Switzerland, Russia, and Scandinavia) and Asia (particularly China). Its growth as

    a trusted brand over the last 20 years and its capability to operate efficiently as a vertically integrated bran means it is well-positioned

    to take its advantages and move abroad to pursue new growth opportunities.

    Product Offerings Business Outfitter

    10-K SEC Filing, Company Website

    International Expansion

    Company Overview

  • Financial Overview | Lands End

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    16

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    $43.28

    $44.26

    $58.19

    $41.15

    $39.99

    $32.79

    $48.58

    $47.70

    $57.95

    $56.65

    $49.97

    $65.13

    $70.33

    $50.48

    $48.41

    $37.59

    $54.99

    $48.87

    $70.51

    $57.86

    $25 $35 $45 $55 $65 $75

    DCF Multiples Method

    DCF Gordon Growth Method

    EV / Revenue 2015E (Overall)

    EV / Revenue 2015E (Similar Metric)

    EV / EBITDA 2015E (Overall)

    EV / EBITDA 2015E (Similar Metrics)

    P / E 2016E(Overall)

    P / E 2016E(Similar Metrics)

    P / E 2015E (Overall)

    P / E 2015E (Similar Metrics)

    Financial Overview

    17Sources: Capital IQ, Craig - Hallum Equity Research Report

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Valuation Summary

    Current Price:

    35.46

    Target Price:

    49.42

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    The first group of comparables were found using screening criteria that looked for apparel retail companies that had YoY growth of between -2% to 2% which is similar to Lands Ends 0.21% LTM growth. With Lands Ends EBIT margins ranging around 10%, companies with margins primarily between 5% and 15% were selected. To this comparables group, the industry group traded at a median 8.8 x LTM EV / EBITDA which was in line with Lands Ends multiples. However, considering Lands Ends previous trend of increasing margins, these multiples gave LE a higher implied valuation. Vertically integrated apparel brands were taken from recommended equity research reports and were companies that were similar more so in operations. However, there was a higher weighting in determination of target price on companies with similar metrics.

    Financial Overview

    18Sources: Capital IQ, Craig-Hallum Equity Research Report

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Public Company Comparables

    ($ in millions, except per share data)

    ( $ in mill ions, except rat ios) Market Enterprise EV / EBITDA FCF Dividend Price / Earnings EV / Revenue

    Company Name Capitalization Value LTM FY1 FY2 Margin % Yield % LTM FY1 FY2 LTM FY1

    Apparel Retail Companies with YoY Growth -2% to 2% and Similar EBIT Margins (Similar Metrics)

    The Gap, Inc. $17,451 $17,877 6.8 x 7.0 x 6.7 x 7.1% 2.1% 14.6 x 14.7 x 13.6 x 1.1 x 1.1 x

    Cabela's Incorporated 3,807 7,741 17.3 x 15.7 x 13.9 x - - 19.2 x 17.1 x 14.9 x 2.1 x 1.9 x

    DSW Inc. 3,228 3,004 9.6 x 9.9 x 8.7 x 5.1% 2.0% 21.4 x 22.4 x 19.5 x 1.2 x 1.2 x

    Chico's FAS Inc. 2,811 2,620 9.3 x 9.4 x 8.2 x 5.2% 1.6% 27.5 x 27.9 x 22.4 x 1.0 x 1.0 x

    The Buckle, Inc. 2,399 2,191 7.6 x 7.6 x 7.4 x 13.1% 7.4% 14.7 x 14.7 x 14.3 x 1.9 x 1.9 x

    ANN INC. 1,670 1,560 6.4 x 6.6 x 6.0 x 1.5% - 20.1 x 21.4 x 17.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x

    Brown Shoe Co. Inc. 1,281 1,456 8.8 x 8.1 x 7.5 x 0.5% 1.0% 18.7 x 17.4 x 15.0 x 0.6 x 0.6 x

    Speedway Motorsports Inc. 968 1,272 8.9 x 9.1 x 8.8 x 12.8% 2.6% 23.2 x 24.8 x 21.6 x 2.6 x 2.6 x

    Tilly's, Inc. 367 309 7.2 x 7.1 x 6.4 x 2.2% - 26.6 x 27.8 x 23.5 x 0.6 x 0.6 xWeyco Group Inc. (NasdaqGS:WEYS) 299.2 314.5 9.8 - - 0.027 0.027 17.5 16.74 14.47 1 1.02

    Mean 9.1 x 8.9 x 8.1 x 5.9% 2.8% 20.7 x 20.9 x 18.0 x 1.3 x 1.3 x

    Median 8.8 x 8.1 x 7.5 x 5.1% 2.1% 20.1 x 21.4 x 17.6 x 1.1 x 1.1 x

    Vertically Integrated Apparel Brands

    L Brands, Inc. $27,375 $31,613 13.8 x 13.5 x 12.4 x 10.1% 1.5% 28.9 x 27.5 x 24.4 x 2.8 x 2.8 x

    Michael Kors Holdings Limited 14,277 13,327 9.7 x 9.5 x 8.4 x 9.4% - 18.9 x 16.5 x 14.8 x 3.2 x 3.0 x

    PVH Corp. 8,605 11,997 9.9 x 10.0 x 9.8 x 8.6% 0.1% 17.0 x 14.3 x 13.2 x 1.5 x 1.5 x

    Carter's, Inc. 4,395 4,847 12.1 x 11.6 x 10.3 x 2.1% 0.9% 24.8 x 21.4 x 18.3 x 1.7 x 1.7 x

    Urban Outfitters Inc. 4,958 4,715 9.5 x 9.4 x 8.5 x 3.9% - 23.4 x 22.8 x 19.2 x 1.5 x 1.4 x

    Kate Spade & Company 4,220 4,506 69.4 x 30.7 x 22.6 x 13.3% - - 106.9 x 55.9 x 3.1 x 4.0 x

    Oxford Industries Inc. 903 1,045 8.7 x 8.6 x 7.7 x 4.5% 1.5% 18.2 x 18.8 x 16.5 x 1.1 x 1.1 x

    Mean 19.0 x 13.3 x 11.4 x 7.4% 1.0% 21.9 x 32.6 x 23.2 x 2.1 x 2.2 x

    Median 9.9 x 10.0 x 9.8 x 8.6% 1.2% 21.2 x 21.4 x 18.3 x 1.7 x 1.7 x

    Lands' End, Inc. 1,102 1,509 8.8 x 9.3 x 9.5 x 11.9% - 12.8 x 14.5 x 16.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x

    Overall Mean 13.4 x 10.9 x 9.6 x 6.6% 2.1% 21.1 x 26.0 x 20.3 x 1.7 x 1.7 x

    Overall Median 9.4 x 9.4 x 8.4 x 5.2% 1.6% 20.1 x 21.4 x 17.9 x 1.5 x 1.4 x

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)Financial Overview

    19Sources: Capital IQ, Craig-Hallum Equity Research Report

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

    ($ in millions, except per share data)

    Unlevered Free Cash Flow Calculation

    Calendar Year Ending December 31, CAGR

    2012A 2013P 2014P 2015E 2016E 2017E 2012-2014

    Revenue: $1,585.9 $1,562.9 $1,581.2 1612.824 0 1645.0805 0 1677.9821 (0.1%)

    Conservative Projections -2.0% $1,549.6 $1,518.6 $1,488.2

    Base Projections 0.0% $1,581.2 $1,581.2 $1,581.2

    Optimistic Projections 2.0% $1,612.8 $1,645.1 $1,678.0

    EBIT $84.5 $126.7 $151.7 $177.4 $181.0 $184.6 34.0%

    EBITDA $107.6 $148.3 $171.7 $199.0 $202.6 $206.2 26.3%

    Unlevered Free Cash Flow $30.2 $73.8 $6.9 $130.5 $132.7 $134.9

    EBITDA Multiples Method

    WACC 6.1%

    Exit Multiple 9.5 x

    2017E EBITDA $206.2

    Terminal Value $1,958.7

    Total Enterprise Value $1,993.4

    Debt 512.4

    Cash 105.6

    Total Equity Value $1,586.6

    Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.0

    Fair Value Per Share $49.58

    Current Price 35.46

    Implied Upside 40%

    Perpetuity Growth Method

    WACC 6.1%

    Perpetuity Growth Rate 0.00%

    2017E UFCF $134.9

    Terminal Value $2,209.45

    Total Enterprise Value $2,203.3

    Debt 512.4

    Cash 105.6

    Total Equity Value $1,796.5

    Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.0

    Fair Value Per Share $56.14

    Current Price 35.46

    Implied Upside 58%$39 $43 $47 $51

    Bull Case

    Bear Base

    Base Case

    Multiples Method

    $40 $50 $60 $70

    Bull Case

    Bear Base

    Base Case

    Growth Method

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)Financial Overview

    20Sources: Capital IQ, Craig-Hallum Equity Research Report

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Sensitivity Analysis

    DCF Analysis: EBITDA Multiple Method

    Total Enterprise Value Total Equity Value

    Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal EBITDA Multiple

    11.5x 12.0x 12.5x 11.5x 12.0x 12.5x

    Discount 6.0% $2,008.1 $2,085.8 $2,163.5 Discount 6.0% $1,601.3 $1,679.0 $1,756.7

    Rate 6.5% 1,981.0 2,057.6 2,134.2 Rate 6.5% 1,574.2 1,650.8 1,727.4

    (WACC) 7.0% 1,954.4 2,029.9 2,105.4 (WACC) 7.0% 1,547.6 1,623.1 1,698.6

    Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Total Price Per Share

    Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal EBITDA Multiple

    11.5x 12.0x 12.5x 11.5x 12.0x 12.5x

    Discount 6.0% 1.90% 2.06% 2.21% Discount 6.0% $50.04 $52.47 $54.90

    Rate 6.5% 2.38% 2.54% 2.70% Rate 6.5% 49.19 51.59 53.98

    (WACC) 7.0% 2.86% 3.02% 3.18% (WACC) 7.0% 48.36 50.72 53.08

    DCF Analysis: Perpetuity Growth Method

    Total Enterprise Value Total Equity Value

    Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate

    1.75% 2.25% 2.75% 1.75% 2.25% 2.75%

    Discount 6.0% $1,943.4 $2,183.4 $2,497.5 Discount 6.0% $1,536.6 $1,776.6 $2,090.7

    Rate 6.5% 1,738.0 1,925.5 2,163.3 Rate 6.5% 1,331.2 1,518.7 1,756.5

    (WACC) 7.0% 1,571.8 1,722.1 1,907.9 (WACC) 7.0% 1,165.0 1,315.3 1,501.1

    Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple Total Price Per Share

    Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate

    1.75% 2.25% 2.75% 1.75% 2.25% 2.75%

    Discount 6.0% 12.5x 14.3x 16.6x Discount 6.0% $48.02 $55.52 $65.34

    Rate 6.5% 11.2x 12.6x 14.4x Rate 6.5% 41.60 47.46 54.89

    (WACC) 7.0% 10.2x 11.3x 12.7x (WACC) 7.0% 36.41 41.10 46.91

    (1) Assumes net debt of $406.8mm as of 5/16/08.

    (2) Assumes outstanding diluted shares of 32.000 million.

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)Financial Overview

    21Sources: Capital IQ, Craig-Hallum Equity Research Report

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Recommendation:Buy Lands End at Market Price

    39.4% Implied Return

  • Appendix

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)

    22

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)Appendix

    23Sources: Capital IQ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Historical Income Statement

    Income Statement

    For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months

    Feb-01-2002

    12 months

    Jan-28-2011

    12 months

    Jan-27-2012

    12 months

    Feb-01-2013

    12 months

    Jan-31-2014

    LTM

    12 months

    Oct-31-2014

    Currency USD USD USD USD USD USD

    Revenue 1,569.1 1,655.6 1,725.6 1,585.9 1,562.9 1,581.2

    Other Revenue - - - - - -

    Total Revenue 1,569.1 1,655.6 1,725.6 1,585.9 1,562.9 1,581.2

    Gross Profit 688.8 822.0 766.0 704.1 710.3 745.3

    Selling General & Admin Exp. 575.7 615.5 621.0 596.4 561.9 573.6

    R & D Exp. - - - - - -

    Depreciation & Amort. - 22.0 22.7 23.1 21.6 20.0

    Other Operating Expense/(Income) - 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Other Operating Exp., Total 575.7 637.4 644.2 619.6 583.6 593.6

    Operating Income 113.2 184.5 121.8 84.5 126.7 151.7

    Interest Expense (1.4) - - - - (14.3)

    Interest and Invest. Income 1.5 - - - - -

    Net Interest Exp. 0.2 - - - - (14.3)

    Currency Exchange Gains (Loss) (1.7) - - - - -

    Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) (3.7) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8

    EBT Excl. Unusual Items 107.9 184.6 121.9 84.5 126.8 138.2

    Restructuring Charges - - - (2.5) - -

    Impairment of Goodwill - - - - - -

    Legal Settlements - 9.1 - - 1.6 2.3

    Other Unusual Items - - - - - -

    EBT Incl. Unusual Items 107.9 193.6 121.9 82.1 128.4 140.5

    Income Tax Expense 41.0 72.4 45.7 32.2 49.5 53.8

    Earnings from Cont. Ops. 66.9 121.3 76.2 49.8 78.8 86.6

    Earnings of Discontinued Ops. - - - - - -

    Extraord. Item & Account. Change - - - - - -

    Net Income to Company 66.9 121.3 76.2 49.8 78.8 86.6

    Minority Int. in Earnings - - - - - -

    Net Income 66.9 121.3 76.2 49.8 78.8 86.6

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)Appendix

    24Sources: Capital IQ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Historical Balance SheetBalance Sheet

    Balance Sheet as of:

    Feb-01-2002 Jan-28-2011 Jan-27-2012 Feb-01-2013 Jan-31-2014 Oct-31-2014

    Currency USD USD USD USD USD USD

    ASSETS

    Cash And Equivalents 122.1 - 15.6 28.3 22.4 105.6

    Total Cash & ST Investments 122.1 - 15.6 28.3 22.4 105.6

    Accounts Receivable 13.3 - 33.1 27.1 33.6 39.5

    Total Receivables 13.3 - 33.1 27.1 33.6 39.5

    Inventory 227.2 - 395.6 378.5 369.9 403.9

    Prepaid Exp. 24.1 - 28.4 7.4 6.4 40.4

    Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. 15.9 - - - - -

    Restricted Cash - - 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3

    Other Current Assets - - - 18.6 15.6 -

    Total Current Assets 402.6 - 476.1 463.2 451.2 592.6

    Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 344.2 - 238.0 250.9 258.8 -

    Accumulated Depreciation (150.3) - (123.0) (141.2) (157.7) -

    Net Property, Plant & Equipment 193.9 - 115.0 109.7 101.1 99.1

    Goodwill - - 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0

    Other Intangibles - - 536.6 534.0 531.3 529.4

    Other Long-Term Assets 2.7 - 1.2 0.8 0.6 22.9

    Total Assets 599.1 - 1,238.9 1,217.7 1,194.3 1,354.0

    LIABILITIES

    Accounts Payable 83.4 - 105.8 106.7 115.4 157.7

    Accrued Exp. 51.7 - 15.4 13.4 13.8 -

    Short-term Borrowings 16.2 - - - - -

    Curr. Port. of LT Debt - - - - - 5.2

    Curr. Income Taxes Payable 25.0 - - - - -

    Unearned Revenue, Current - - 38.3 40.5 44.8 -

    Def. Tax Liability, Curr. - - 0.3 7.3 4.0 2.9

    Other Current Liabilities 9.4 - 30.3 25.8 25.4 116.8

    Total Current Liabilities 185.6 - 190.1 193.7 203.4 282.4

    Long-Term Debt - - - - - 507.3

    Pension & Other Post-Retire. Benefits - - 1.8 - - -

    Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. 12.8 - 201.5 196.6 195.5 172.9

    Other Non-Current Liabilities - - 1.6 4.2 3.1 17.4

    Total Liabilities 198.4 - 395.1 394.5 402.0 980.1

    Common Stock 0.4 - 845.4 826.4 794.3 0.3

    Additional Paid In Capital 48.0 - - - - 342.1

    Retained Earnings 556.0 - - - - 35.8

    Treasury Stock (206.9) - - - - -

    Comprehensive Inc. and Other 3.3 - (1.5) (3.2) (2.0) (4.3)

    Total Common Equity 400.7 - 843.8 823.2 792.3 373.9

    Total Equity 400.7 - 843.8 823.2 792.3 373.9

    Total Liabilities And Equity 599.1 - 1,238.9 1,217.7 1,194.3 1,354.0

  • Lands End Pitch (NASDAQ: LE)Appendix

    25Sources: Capital IQ

    Long Stock Pitch and Valuation

    Historical Cash Flow StatementCash Flow

    For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months

    Feb-01-2002

    12 months

    Jan-28-2011

    12 months

    Jan-27-2012

    12 months

    Feb-01-2013

    12 months

    Jan-31-2014

    LTM

    12 months

    Oct-31-2014

    Currency USD USD USD USD USD USD

    Net Income 66.9 121.3 76.2 49.8 78.8 86.6

    Depreciation & Amort. 26.9 19.3 20.1 20.5 19.0 17.3

    Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles - 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

    Depreciation & Amort., Total 26.9 22.0 22.7 23.1 21.6 20.0

    Other Amortization - - - - - 1.1

    (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Assets 2.4 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Stock-Based Compensation 0.1 - - - - 2.0

    Tax Benefit from Stock Options 7.7 - - - - -

    Other Operating Activities (8.8) 3.5 (1.3) 3.1 (5.0) (0.6)

    Change in Acc. Receivable 6.5 - - - - -

    Change In Inventories (39.0) 17.3 (72.1) 14.7 10.0 58.7

    Change in Acc. Payable (12.8) 0.1 (11.0) 1.4 9.1 24.1

    Change in Inc. Taxes 11.7 - - - - -

    Change in Other Net Operating Assets 11.9 (21.3) (0.6) 4.0 0.2 19.5

    Cash from Ops. 73.5 142.8 14.5 96.2 114.9 211.4

    Capital Expenditure (40.5) (19.0) (15.1) (15.0) (9.9) (17.4)

    Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Other Investing Activities - (0.1) 0.1 0.1 - -

    Cash from Investing (40.5) (19.1) (15.0) (14.9) (9.9) (17.4)

    Short Term Debt Issued - - - - - -

    Long-Term Debt Issued - - - - - -

    Total Debt Issued - - - - - 515.0

    Short Term Debt Repaid (0.8) - - - - -

    Long-Term Debt Repaid - - - - - -

    Total Debt Repaid (0.8) - - - - (2.6)

    Issuance of Common Stock 26.9 - - - - 6.0

    Repurchase of Common Stock (12.4) - - - - -

    Common Dividends Paid - (117.3) (5.3) (68.8) (110.9) (110.9)

    Total Dividends Paid - (117.3) (5.3) (68.8) (110.9) (110.9)

    Special Dividend Paid - - - - - -

    Other Financing Activities - - - - - (511.4)

    Cash from Financing 13.7 (117.3) (5.3) (68.8) (110.9) (103.9)

    Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. - (0.4) 0.4 0.1 0.0 (0.9)

    Net Change in Cash 46.7 6.0 (5.4) 12.6 (5.8) 89.2