Hurricane Carol (1954)

LateLate--Holocene Hurricane ClimatologyHolocene Hurricane Climatology

Jon D. WoodruffJon D. Woodruff11

Jeffrey P. DonnellyJeffrey P. Donnelly22

Kerry EmanuelKerry Emanuel33

David MohrigDavid Mohrig44

W. Rocky GeyerW. Rocky Geyer22

11MIT/WHOI Joint ProgramMIT/WHOI Joint Program22Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution33Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology44University of Texas at AustinUniversity of Texas at Austin

NobskaPond

Overwash ApplicationsOverwash ApplicationsOverwash Applications

1.1. Evaluating Frequency of Hurricane InundationEvaluating Frequency of Hurricane Inundation2.2. Constrain Flood ConditionsConstrain Flood Conditions3.3. Assessing Hurricane Activity Under Varying ClimateAssessing Hurricane Activity Under Varying Climate

1717°°NN

1818°°NN

1919°°NN

18371867

18761932

1896

19891989

19561956

189318991899

18251825

Puerto Rico

6767°°WW 6666°°WW 6565°°WW 6464°°WW

19281928

N

•High Hurricane Activity•Small tidal range•Steep offshore bathymetry and topography

•High Hurricane Activity•Small tidal range•Steep offshore bathymetry and topography

Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto RicoLaguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico

~500 meters

Spatial Distribution for Coarse DepositsSpatial Distribution for Coarse Deposits

0 2000

1212

ocean

Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007(Nature, v. 447, p. 465-468)

14C dates 1350 yr BP Ti horizon

Cs-137 1963 AD peak

1840 A.D. Ti Land ClearanceHorizon

1928(San Felipe)

1956(Betsy)

Cs-137peak

(1963 A.D.)

0 0.5 0.1 1.5 0.2

5

10

15

20

mean bulk grain size (mm)mean bulk grain size (mm)

Dep

th (c

m)

191019201930194019501960197019801990

Age AD

1989(Hugo)

Core 12Core 12

44

mean bulk grain size (mm)mean bulk grain size (mm)Core 12Core 12

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

oceanoceanCore 4Core 4

Dep

th (c

m)

400

300

200

100

00.1 0.20

mean bulk grain size (mm)mean bulk grain size (mm)

2500 yr BP

3600 yr BP

5000 yr BP

1000 yr BP

00

11

22

33

44

55

66

met

ers

met

ers

77

barrier

lagoon

Lateral Sorting During TransportLateral Sorting During Transport

hL

xxLL

ws

hb

infragravity

wave (T~102

s)3

122

⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛>=<

gwxh sL

b

Scaling for flow depth over barrier

Woodruff et al., 2008(Geology, , v. 36, p. 391-394)

00

5050

100100

150150

200200

250250

300300

350350

400400

dept

h (c

m)

dept

h (c

m)

Relative Flooding IntensityRelative Flooding IntensityRelative Flooding Intensity

DD9595 for for SiliciclasticsSiliciclastics (mm)(mm)

11 22 33 44

Flow depth Flow depth over barrier (m)over barrier (m)

0.170.17

0.350.35

0.610.61

1.001.00

1840 AD1840 AD

1000 yrs Before Present1000 yrs Before Present

Woodruff et al., 2008Woodruff et al., 2008(Geology, , v. 36, p. 391(Geology, , v. 36, p. 391--394)394)

1825 AD Santa Ana 1825 AD Santa Ana (Cat. 5?, 917 (Cat. 5?, 917 mbarsmbars, F3), F3)

1989 AD (Hugo, Cat. 4)1989 AD (Hugo, Cat. 4)debris line debris line 2.7 m2.7 m

1928 AD (Cat. 4)1928 AD (Cat. 4)Flooding depth Flooding depth 2.6 m2.6 m

1899 AD, San 1899 AD, San CiriacoCiriaco, , (Cat. 4)(Cat. 4)

5000 yrs Before Present5000 yrs Before Present

Core 3Core 3

31

22

⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛>=<

gwxh sL

b

250 yrs Before Present250 yrs Before Present

2004 W. North Atlantic Hurricane Season2004 W. North Atlantic Hurricane Season

Temporal LimitationTemporal Limitation

100o W 75o W 50o W 25o W 0 o

12oN

24oN

36oN

48oN

60oN

Model Runs:Model Runs:BLACKBLACK-- Synthetic Hurricane TracksSynthetic Hurricane Tracks

Generating Synthetic Hurricane Tracks Generating Synthetic Hurricane Tracks

Best Track Data Set :Best Track Data Set : GREENGREEN-- Category 1,2Category 1,2 REDRED-- Category 3,4,5Category 3,4,5

Hurricanes passing within 75 km of Hurricanes passing within 75 km of ViequesVieques

•• Random draw from historical genesis distributionRandom draw from historical genesis distribution•• Steered by randomly generated wind fields and beta driftSteered by randomly generated wind fields and beta drift•• Evolution of intensity obtained deterministicallyEvolution of intensity obtained deterministically

Woodruff et al., 2008(G-cubed, , v. 9(9), p. 1-12)

Significance for Inactive PeriodsSignificance for Inactive Periods

70 80 90 100 110 1200

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Max

imum

Gap

in A

ctiv

ityM

axim

um G

ap in

Act

ivity

For 5

000

yr s

imul

atio

nsFo

r 500

0 yr

sim

ulat

ions

(yea

rs)

(yea

rs)

Onshore Wind Speed Threshold (>knots)Onshore Wind Speed Threshold (>knots)

500 yrs

1100 yrs

250 yrs

Cur

rent

Thr

esho

ldC

urre

nt T

hres

hold

001000100020002000300030004000400050005000 00

55

1010

1515

2020

2525

Years Before 1950 AD (yrs BP)Years Before 1950 AD (yrs BP)

cum

ulat

ive

num

ber o

f cu

mul

ativ

e nu

mbe

r of

over

was

h de

posi

tsov

erw

ash

depo

sits

1100 yrs

500 yrs

250 yrs

Woodruff et al., 2008(G-cubed, , v. 9(9), p. 1-12)

0050050010001000150015002000200025002500 00

22

44

66

88

1010

1212

1414

1616

1818

yrs BPyrs BP

cum

ulat

ive

sum

of e

vent

scu

mul

ativ

e su

m o

f eve

nts

ViequesVieques, , PRPR (Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007)(Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007)

500 yrs500 yrs

Evidence for Regional Change in Hurricane ActivityEvidence for Regional Change in Hurricane Activity

Western Atlantic hurricane tracks (1984Western Atlantic hurricane tracks (1984--2005)2005)

NYNY

FLFL

Alder Island, Alder Island, NYNY ((ScileppiScileppi and Donnelly, 2007)and Donnelly, 2007)Western Lake,Western Lake, FLFL (Liu and (Liu and FearnFearn, 2000), 2000)

PRPR

Woodruff et al., 2008(G-cubed, , v. 9(9), p. 1-12)

0100020003000400050006000Time (cal yr BP)

Donnelly and Woodruff(2007)

0100020003000400050006000

LPG4 m

eanbulk grain size

(mm

)

0

0.1

0.2

Time (cal yr BP)

Hurricane OverwashVieques, Puerto Rico

Comparison for Comparison for PaleoclimatePaleoclimate RecordsRecords

Moy et al. (2002)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Red

Col

or

Inte

nsityEl Niño

C-14 Ages

SeaSurface

Temperature(°C) Richey et al. (2007)

Mg/Ca formanifera

Nyberg et al. (2002)formanifera abundance

South of Puerto Rico

Gulf of Mexico23

25

27 SST (°C)

2526272829

SST (°C)

SummarySummarySummaryFlooding magnitudes Flooding magnitudes similar over the last similar over the last 5000 yrs5000 yrsWoodruff et al., Geology 2008Woodruff et al., Geology 2008

Trends at Trends at ViequesVieques statistically statistically significant significant

Woodruff et al., GWoodruff et al., G33 20082008

In Addition to SST, In Addition to SST, ENSO likely an ENSO likely an important factor in important factor in longlong--term term projectionsprojections

Donnelly and Woodruff, Nature 2007Donnelly and Woodruff, Nature 2007

Acknowledgements:

A. AshtonK. Boldt

E. Bryant S. ElgarJ. ElsnerP. Lane

M. GomesB. Raubentheimer

E. ScileppiR. SobellA. SolowJ. Tierney

M. ToomeyE. Uchupi

Grain Size Trends for 1350 yr BP DepositGrain Size Trends for 1350 yr BP Deposit

D95

grai

n si

ze (m

m)

1350 yrs BP deposit0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

distance from back of barrier (m)

0 100 200 300 400

bulk material

east transectmiddle transectwest transect

siliciclastics

west transectmiddle transect

east transect

ocean

Heleobops Sp.Woodruff et al., 2008(Geology, , v. 36, p. 391-394)

Water Levels for the 1928 San Felipe HurricaneWater Levels for the 1928 San Felipe Hurricane

Storm SurgeStorm Surge(Simulation for 1928 event)(Simulation for 1928 event)

ηsurge at site ≈

0.9 m

Mercado et al. (1994)

Maximum Runup

( ) mLHR oo 7.32/1max ≈=α

Stockdon et al., 2006

Wave Setup and Wave Setup and RunupRunup

β

setupRunupηsurge

0 m

1 m

2 m

Laguna Laguna Playa Playa GrandeGrande

Model Assessment (1928 AD Deposit)Model Assessment (1928 AD Deposit)

31

22

⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛>=<

gwxh ss

b

distance from back of barrier (m)

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

D95

settl

ing

velo

city

(cm

/s)

1928 AD deposit

0 100 200 300 400

hb

=2.6 mmodel distributionfor 1928 AD event

mean sea level

Rmax

=3.7mOchi, 2003Stockdon

et el., 2006

ηsurge

=0.9mMercado et al., 1996

Barrier Beach

ηsetup

hb

=2.6m

1867 A.D. tsunamiZahibo

et al. 2003

2m Core 3

8080 100100 120120 140140Maximum TC Wind Speed (knots)Maximum TC Wind Speed (knots)

000.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.70.80.80.90.9

Ann

ual P

erce

nt P

roba

bilit

yA

nnua

l Per

cent

Pro

babi

lity

Cat. Cat. 11

Cat.Cat.22

Cat. Cat. 33

Cat. Cat. 44

Cat. Cat. 55

Distribution of StormsDistribution of StormsCausing Local Overwash at Causing Local Overwash at ViequesVieques

100o W 75o W 50o W 25o W 0 o

12oN

24oN

36oN

48oN

60oN

Model Runs:Model Runs:BLACKBLACK-- Synthetic Hurricane TracksSynthetic Hurricane Tracks

Generating Synthetic Hurricane Tracks Generating Synthetic Hurricane Tracks

Best Track Data Set :Best Track Data Set : GREENGREEN-- Category 1,2Category 1,2 REDRED-- Category 3,4,5Category 3,4,5

Hurricanes passing within 75 km of Hurricanes passing within 75 km of ViequesVieques

•• Random draw from historical genesis distributionRandom draw from historical genesis distribution•• Steered by randomly generated wind fields and beta driftSteered by randomly generated wind fields and beta drift•• Evolution of intensity obtained deterministicallyEvolution of intensity obtained deterministically

Woodruff et al., 2008(G-cubed, , v. 9(9), p. 1-12)

El NiEl Niññoo