latest who update (22 sept. 2014) estimates 20k cases by 2 nov. cdc says 1.4 m by jan. 20 up to 70%...

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Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) • Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. • CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 • Up to 70% fatality rate • Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal • Most who die, do so within 4 days • Those who live, leave care in 11 days • ? Those who receive care live longer • 300 HCW’s infected with 50% CFR

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Page 1: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014)

• Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov.

• CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20

• Up to 70% fatality rate

• Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal

• Most who die, do so within 4 days

• Those who live, leave care in 11 days

• ? Those who receive care live longer

• 300 HCW’s infected with 50% CFR

Page 2: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Epidemiology (cont.)

• Index case– 2 yo ♂ Guinea 12/2013• Then Guinea confirmed cluster 03.14• Then spread to Liberia and Sierra

Leone• Then recently to Nigeria via air travel• Then to Senegal• WHO Public Health Emergency of

International Concern – 08/2014

Page 3: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Air Traffic Connections From West African Countries to the Rest of the World

Page 4: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

DRC (Congo) Outbreak (aka Zaire)

• Zaire strain but not related to West Africa outbreak

• 70 cases, 42 deaths, lab 30 (7 HCWs) as of Sept. 29, 2014

Page 5: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

WHO Ebola Response Roadmap• Released August 28, 2014

• Reverse the trend in new cases and infected areas within 3 months, stop transmission in capital cities and major ports, and stop all residual transmission within 6-9 months.

• Estimation of Costs: US $490m

• Really over $600m+

Page 6: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Cases Underestimated? ( by x 2.5)

1. Patients hidden by families

2. Denial of the disease

3. In rural areas, corpses are burned

before identification/dx.

4. Invisible caseloads of patients

5. “Shadow Zones”

Page 7: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Modes of Transmission

There are 3 modes of infection:

1. Objects contaminated with the virus (Unsterilized needles, medical equipment)

2. Suboptimal healthcare conditions (Lack of PPE)

3. Personal contact with diseased humans (blood vomit, urine, feces,

sweat, semen, breast milk, sputum) or infected animal meat/bushmeat

http://www.ecplanet.com/pic/2003/12/1071257871/ebola.jpg

Page 8: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Chlorinated Hand Wash Station

Page 9: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

West Africa Ebola Outbreak

Page 10: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most
Page 11: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

West Africa Ebola Outbreak

Page 12: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Transporting Suspected Ebola Patient—Sierra Leone

Page 13: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Public Health Actions

• Notifications to healthcare professionals with education/info on patient care and disease prevention

• Education/information to the public

• Negate misinformation/myths

Page 14: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most
Page 15: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most
Page 16: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Latest USG Response (Sept. 16, 2014)

• 3000 US military for medical

and logistics support• -Train 500 health care workers a week;

-Erect 17 health care facilities in the region with 100 beds each;-Set up a joint command to coordinate between US and international relief efforts;-Provide home health care kits to hundreds of thousands of households;-Carry out a home- and community-based campaign to train local populations on how to handle exposed patients.

Page 17: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Preventive Measures-Africa

• Stop the consumption of animal meat• Isolate the sick• Prompt disposal of victim’s bodies• Trace those who had contact with

infected• Disinfect homes of the dead and the sick• Protective clothing for HCW, and anyone

handling infected animals

Page 18: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Contact Tracing

Page 19: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations

• Standard contact & droplet precautions including gloves, fluid-resistant gowns, eye protection, face mask, and additional PPE as needed

• Single patient room with private bathroom, door closed, restrict visitors

• Avoid aerosol generating procedures

• Invoke specific environmental controlshttp://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/infection-prevention-and-control-recommendations.html

Page 20: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Isolation Unit

Page 21: Latest WHO Update (22 Sept. 2014) Estimates 20k cases by 2 Nov. CDC says 1.4 M by Jan. 20 Up to 70% fatality rate Ages 14 – 44, older are most fatal Most

Isolation Ward- Cohorting