latin america economic outlook 3q17 - bbva research · 2018-09-06 · marked regional differences...
TRANSCRIPT
Colombia Unit
July 2017
Colombia Outlook Third Quarter 2017
Main messages
1. Global growth is continuing to increase. This improvement mainly affects advanced economies
and China. China has also experienced fiscal stimuli. Overall, global risks remain a concern.
2. Colombia's economy has responded positively to the oil price shock. Despite a sharp
slowdown, the capacity to cushion the cycle and maintain external funding has enabled growth to
remain in positive territory.
3. The economy will recover. The recovery cycle will be slow, due to limited exogenous sources of
growth: we expect GDP to perform below its potential over the coming years.
4. Economic policy will contribute less to the recovery than in 2009. In the absence of significant
improvement in revenues, compliance with the fiscal rule will mean the Government has a negative
impact on growth. Meanwhile, the Central Bank is worrying about inflation persistence
5. Inflation will continue to fall in 2018. The marked slowdown in inflation over the last year will
pause briefly from August to November, before returning to its downward trend and ending 2018 at
3.2%
Contents
02
03
04
An unprecedented shock
Growth inertia: towards a slow recovery cycle
Inflation and exchange rate
05 Structural balances
01 Global context
GLOBAL Stable growth in 2017-18,
but downside risks remain
5
Global dynamics remain positive
Global growth driven by
China
Signs of stabilisation in global
growth
Some rebalancing from
the USA to Europe
Both macro and political
Low Inflation in
developed countries
Wage moderation and
correction of commodity prices
Central Banks in
developed countries
gradually moving towards
normalisation
Withdrawal of liquidity and
higher interest rates
Financial markets remain
calm
Low volatility fosters risk taking
Risks
Falling in Europe, but
accumulating in China
USA
2017
2.1
2018
2.2
LATIN AMERICA
2018
1.7
EUROZONE
CHINA 2017
2.0
2018
6.0
2018
1.7
2017
0.8
2017
6.5
Source: BBVA Research. Latin America comprises: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and
Venezuela
WORLD
2018 3.4
2017 3.3
Down
Up
Unchanged
Growth revised up in Europe and China, but down in the USA
and Latin America
6
Adjustment to commodity price forecast for 2017-18, due to
concerns about the strength of supply
Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg
BRENT CRUDE
(US$ per barrel)
SOYBEANS
(US$ per metric ton)
COPPER
(US$ per lb.)
Oil price undermined by output levels and stocks. Prices are
still expected to remain around US$60 per barrel in the long
term, due to falling investment in exploration.
The strength of supply is also affecting short-term soybean
and copper prices. No major changes expected in long-term
commodity prices. 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q
2014
3Q
2014
1Q
2015
3Q
2015
1Q
2016
3Q
2016
1Q
2017
3Q
2017
1Q
2018
3Q
2018
1Q
2019
3Q
2019
1Q
2020
3Q
2020
Forecast in April 2017
Forecast in July 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1Q
20
14
3Q
20
14
1Q
20
15
3Q
20
15
1Q
20
16
3Q
20
16
1Q
20
17
3Q
20
17
1Q
2018
3Q
20
18
1Q
2019
3Q
20
19
1Q
2020
3Q
20
20
Forecast in April 2017
Forecast in July 2017
1,5
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
1Q
2014
3Q
20
14
1Q
20
15
3Q
20
15
1Q
20
16
3Q
2016
1Q
20
17
3Q
20
17
1Q
20
18
3Q
20
18
1Q
20
19
3Q
2019
1Q
20
20
3Q
20
20
Forecast in April 2017
Forecast in July 2017
The main global risks for Latin America centre on US politics and
rebalancing in China
3
2
4
1 Lingering uncertainty about measures
approved in the US, but falling concerns about
the risk of protectionism
Policy stimulus measures taken to bolster the
recent strength of investment in China are
continuing to accumulate imbalances and
financial fragility
Risks associated with the normalisation of
monetary policy, particularly in the USA, due
to divergence from market expectations.
Political risks are falling in Europe, but some
remain with regard to Brexit, the handling of
some banking issues and elections in Italy.
8
An
unprecedented
shock A positive response from the
economy, despite the sharp
shock
Exports dropped by 48% between 2012 and 2016, the steepest
fall since the great depression of 1929 to 1932
Oil price and exports volumes
Source: BBVA Research with data from DANE and Bloomberg 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
may-95 may-97 may-99 may-01 may-03 may-05 may-07 may-09 may-11 may-13 may-15 may-17
USD /BarilUSD millions
Export Value (left) Brent Price
Dates 1898 1902 var % 1928 1932 var % 2008 2009 var % 2012 2016 var %
Values 17 9 -47% 130 65 -50% 37.625 32.546 -13% 60.125 31.394 -48%
USD milliones
Events
1000 day War Great Depression International Financial Crisis Oil Crisis
The current shock is significant compared to recent precedents
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
Colombia economic cycle (%, for t0=1Q17 BBVA forecasts)
The current shock is becoming more
severe than that of 2009 (international
financial crisis). In part this is because
emerging economies are not
benefiting from the boost from China
and oil prices they enjoyed then
However, it is not like 1999, in
principle because external funding
and shock absorbers such as the
exchange rate have cushioned
cyclical impacts today
Even so, the recovery will be very
similar to that of 2000-2003: low
growth with a similar slope
11
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
t-21 t-18 t-15 t-12 t-9 t-6 t-3 t0 t3 t6 t9 t12 t15 t18
t0=Q299 t0=Q408 t0=Q117
Achieving positive growth after a shock of this scale is virtue of
shock absorbers and international credibility
Source: BBVA Research based on DANE data: Bloomberg
Colombia current account cycle (% of GDP)
Exchange rate (Pesos per dollar)
Ample funding for the current account, unlike 1999
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
t-21 t-18 t-15 t-12 t-9 t-6 t-3 t0 t3 t6 t9 t12 t15 t18
t0=Q299 t0=Q408 t0=Q117
1863
3020
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Source: BBVA Research based on Bloomberg data
Unlike 1999, when markets shut, and the major shock in 2009,
there have been no significant impacts on risk premiums in the
current cycle
Colombia risk premiums (5Y CDS and EMBI, basis points)
13
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Ju
n-9
9
De
c-9
9
Ju
n-0
0
De
c-0
0
Ju
n-0
1
De
c-0
1
Ju
n-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
De
c-0
9
Jun-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ju
n-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ju
n-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ju
n-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ju
n-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ju
n-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ju
n-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ju
n-1
7
EMBI CDS 5 yrs
The adjustment was first seen in investment, with private
consumption hit hard until 2H16
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
Private consumption (% YoY change, annual moving average) The shock affected investment
directly through two channels: activity
and prices (exchange rate). The
contraction in spending in the oil and
gas sector impacted various
economic indicators
External funding and employment
kept private consumption high even
up to 2H16. However, accumulating
effects (inflation, interest rates and
economic slowdown) resulted in a
sharp fall in consumer confidence
14
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
Ma
r-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Sep-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
GDP Consumption Investment
Despite the scale of the adjustment, the gains in investment
continued (high investment rate)
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP, constant prices)
19,7
23,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
The investment rate peaked in 2014,
driven in particular by the cycle of strong
oil prices
By 2016, the investment rate had fallen
by 2 points of GDP - a smaller
adjustment than in the '90s, but
outstripping 2009
Part of the investment is very specific to
the oil and gas sector, which could limit
adaptability to other sources of growth.
We should consider a correction in the
productivity of such investment, which
would be in line with the argument that
potential GDP is lower than expected
15
Slow recovery
Figures for the first quarter of 2017 show the continuing
weakness of spending and production
GDP growth: supply and demand (%) Private consumption adjusted
significantly from 3Q16, impacted by
high inflation and interest rates, and
low confidence
Investment remained in negative
territory; however, the positive
performance of road building
(concessions) was a highlight
There was wide dispersal on the
supply side: a couple of sectors
performed strongly, but most
recorded slow growth. Of these,
agriculture was boosted by weather
conditions returning to normal - a
transitory effect
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data 17
2015 2016 I 2016 II 2016 III 2016 IV 2016 I 2017
GDP 3,1 2 2,7 2,5 1,1 1,6 1,1
Demand
Private Consumption 3,2 2,1 2,8 2,1 1,1 2,3 1,1
Public Consumption 5 1,8 3,9 3,1 0,2 0,2 2,1
Fixed Investment 1,8 -3,6 -4 -4 -3,6 -2,9 -0,7
Exports 1,2 -0,9 0,7 2,1 -3 -3,3 -3,6
Imports 1,4 -6,2 -5,8 -3,5 -10,9 -4,3 -0,4
Supply
Agriculture 2,5 0,5 0 0,4 -0,5 2 7,7
Mining 0,2 -6,5 -4,6 -6,8 -6,5 -8,3 -9,4
Industry 1,7 3 4,3 5,3 1,3 1 0,3
Utilities 3 0,1 2,9 -0,7 -1,4 -0,6 -0,6
Construction 3,7 4,1 5,5 0,7 6,8 3,4 -1,4
Commerce, hotels and restaurants 4,6 1,8 2,8 1,9 0,7 1,8 -0,5
Transport and telecom 2,6 -0,1 0,9 0,2 -1,4 -0,3 -0,3
Financial and business services 5,1 5 4,9 5,4 4,4 5,1 4,4
Social and communal services 3,1 2,2 3,5 3,2 1,3 0,9 2,2
Taxes 0,7 2,2 1,3 4,1 0,4 2,9 2,7
The signs of economic recovery are not yet conclusive
Source: BBVA Research with Fedesarrollo data
Confidence remains in negative territory, with unexpected falls in the most recent readings
Consumer and industrial confidence (Balance of confidence)
18
The signs of economic recovery are not yet conclusive
Source: BBVA Research with DANE and ANDI data
The retail sales and industry sector balance shows signs of recovery, although there are still some signs of weakness. Indicators of inventories and capacity utilization
show that demand remains weak
Retail sales and industry sector balance* (standardised balance)
Capacity utilization and inventories
*Calculated as the number of sub-sectors accelerating minus the number of sub-sectors slowing on a monthly
basis. This is then converted into a percentage value compared to the total sub-sectors.
19
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
ma
y-8
5
ma
y-8
7
ma
y-8
9
ma
y-9
1
ma
y-9
3
ma
y-9
5
ma
y-9
7
ma
y-9
9
ma
y-0
1
ma
y-0
3
ma
y-0
5
ma
y-0
7
ma
y-0
9
ma
y-1
1
ma
y-1
3
ma
y-1
5
ma
y-1
7
Balance%
Capacity Utilization Inventories (right)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr
-06
Apr
-07
Apr
-08
Apr
-09
Apr
-10
Apr
-11
Apr
-12
Apr
-13
Apr
-14
Apr
-15
Apr
-16
Apr
-17
Industry Retail Sales
Signs of deterioration in the labour market are starting
to appear
Source: BBVA Research based on DANE data
The 2017 unemployment rate is higher than 2016. Job creation is continuing to weaken
Employment growth rate (%, quarterly data, 13 cities)
Unemployment rate (% of EAP, 13 cities)
20
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2015 2016 2017
2,9
4,3
3,6
2,4
0,4
0,8
0,3
1,3
0,5
-0,3
0,50,8
-0,6
0,4
2,8
0,4
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-1
4
Sep-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Sep-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Marked regional differences in labour market results
Source: BBVA Research based on DANE data
Employment growth rate (%, quarterly) Bogotá is leading the destruction of jobs,
with 7 consecutive months of job losses
and weakness since mid-2015
Medellín is offsetting some of this,
especially so far in 2017, but this is
insufficient
Labour market results closely resemble
regional consumer confidence results:
Bogotá is bringing up the rear in terms
of confidence and job losses, with
Medellín and Barranquilla reporting
higher confidence and job creation
21
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Bogotá Medellín Cali B/quilla B/manga Other
Restrictions on fiscal and monetary
policy
Source: BBVA Research with data from the Ministry of Finance
The government has suffered a sharp fall in oil revenues, which
have not been offset by other sources
Government revenues (% GDP)
There is a lag in the effect of falling oil prices. This was seen in 2010 and from 2015
23
11,812,4
13,3 13,514,1
12,512,9
13,6 13,5 13,614,1
15,0 14,81,1
1,1
1,41,5
1,5
2,8
0,9
1,6
2,6
3,3 2,61,1
0,1
12,9
13,5
14,715,0
15,615,3
13,8
15,2
16,1
16,916,7
16,1
14,9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue other than oil related Oil Revenue Total Revenue
Source: BBVA Research with data from the Ministry of Finance (MFMP)
Part of the adjustment has come from lower spending, but
interest and charges stemming from the 2012 reform have
decimated this effort
National government spending (% GDP)
24
14,5 14,0 14,716,4
14,9 15,3 15,8 16,2 15,9 15,2 14,7
0,7 1,0 1,4 1,33,6 3,7 3,2
3,0
2,7 2,7 2,62,3 2,2 2,6 2,9
18,1 17,7 17,919,4
17,6 18,0 18,419,2 19,1 19,2 18,9
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment and Opperation Transferences for ICBF, SENA and health Interest
The Central Bank is facing a difficult dilemma of a slowing
economy with inflationary risks
Source: BBVA Research based on DANE data
Part of the shock will be permanent, reducing observed and potential GDP, and limiting the Central Bank's scope for action
Inflation, non tradables (%)
Potential and observed GDP and output gap
(p)
25
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Natural GDP GDP Output Gap
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
jun-0
1
jun-0
2
jun-0
3
jun-0
4
jun-0
5
jun-0
6
jun-0
7
jun-0
8
jun-0
9
jun-1
0
jun-1
1
jun-1
2
jun-1
3
jun-1
4
jun-1
5
jun-1
6
jun-1
7
Non Tradales (sanir) Without foodstuffs and administered prices Indexed
The Central Bank has adjusted its rates by 200 bp, but could have
scope for a further 125 bp in 2H17 and 2018
Source: BBVA Research based on Banrep data
Policy interest rate (%) The Central Bank's recent statements
show greater concern about growth. For
this reason, it reduced its policy rate by
50 bp at its most recent meeting, and
could reduce it by a further 50 bp at its
coming meetings
This would put the rate in neutral territory,
enabling the Central Bank to take a
breather, taking advantage of an
uncomfortable time of increasing inflation
to assess the impact on expectations
(August to November)
In 2018 it would have room for further
cuts of 75 bp to 4.5%. This would be
limited by expectations becoming
detached or inflation not falling back
significantly at the start of the year
26
3,25
4,50
5,75
7,50
5,25
4,50
2,0
1,5
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (p) 2018 (p)
Policy Rate
Real Policy Rate
Real Natural Policy Rate Range
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
Based on the factors mentioned, we expect a slow recovery in
economic activity
GDP growth (% YoY change)
2,01,5
2,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
(p
)
20
18
(p
)
20
19
(p
)
20
20
(p
)
20
21
(p
)
27
Inflation and
exchange rate After the storm, the calm
Inflation has fallen back over the year, as a result of normalisation
of the 2016 supply-side shocks
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
Total inflation and without food (% YoY change)
Inflation by components (% YoY change)
29
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ju
n-1
5
Aug-1
5
Oct-
15
De
c-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Oct-
16
De
c-1
6
Fe
b-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Foodstuffs Administered Prices
Tradables Non Tradables
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jun-1
5
Aug-1
5
Oct-
15
De
c-1
5
Feb
-16
Apr-
16
Jun-1
6
Aug-1
6
Oct-
16
De
c-1
6
Feb
-17
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Total Core Target Range
We expect a rebound in inflation between August and November
due to base effects: inflation of 3.2% in 2018
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
Total inflation and without food (% YoY change)
(p)
30
4,30
3,22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Se
p-1
8
De
c-1
8
Total Core Target Range
The stability of inflation has been accompanied by a moderation
in exchange rate volatility
Source: BBVA Research based on Bloomberg data
Exchange rate (% YoY change)
The fall in oil prices over the last quarter fostered
exchange rate depreciation. We expect these
conditions to continue over the third quarter, with
the exchange rate moderating at year end
Here at BBVA we expect the oil price to converge
on USD 59/Brent barrel. This would imply future
upward pressure on the currency. Our long-term
estimate of the currency is therefore 2900 pesos
to the dollar beyond 2019
US monetary policy has been another unique
factor, prompting the devaluation over the year.
It will be important to keep an eye on the
behaviour of the exchange rate when the Federal
Reserve starts running down its balance sheet
(p)
31
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Sep-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Se
p-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Se
p-1
8
De
c-1
8
Structural
balances Reducing the vulnerability of
the economy
The reduction in the current account deficit will be smaller than
in 2016 in 2017 and 2018, but we will keep working on this
Source: BBVA Research based on Banrep data
Current Account (% YoY change)
Improved composition of funding compared to 2015, reducing the vulnerability of the Colombian economy
33
3,03,2
5,1
6,4
4,4
3,9
3,5
140
69
50
28
57 64 64
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(p) 2018(p)
% % of GDP
Current Account Deficit (CAD) Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) FDI to CAD Ratio
Main messages
1. Global growth is continuing to increase. This improvement mainly affects advanced economies
and China. China has also experienced fiscal stimuli. Overall, global risks remain a concern.
2. Colombia's economy has responded positively to the oil price shock. Despite a sharp
slowdown, the capacity to cushion the cycle and maintain external funding has enabled growth to
remain in positive territory.
3. The economy will recover The recovery cycle will be slow, due to limited exogenous sources of
growth: we expect GDP to perform below its potential over the coming years.
4. Economic policy will contribute less to the recovery than in 2009. In the absence of significant
improvements in revenues, compliance with the fiscal rule will mean the Government has a negative
impact on growth. Meanwhile, the Central Bank is worrying about inflation
5. Inflation will continue to fall back in 2018. The marked slowdown in inflation over the last year will
pause briefly from August to November, before returning to its downward trend and ending 2018 at
3.2%
34
This report has been produced by the Colombia Unit
Head Economist, Colombia Juana Téllez
+57 347 16 00
BBVA Research Jorge Sicilia Serrano
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Rafael Doménech [email protected]
Global Economic Situations
Miguel Jiménez
Global Financial Markets
Sonsoles Castillo
Long term Global Modelling and Analysis
Julián Cubero
Innovation and Processes
Oscar de las Peñas
Financial Systems and Regulation
Santiago Fernández de Lis
International Coordination
Olga Cerqueira
Digital Regulation
Álvaro Martín
Regulation María Abascal
Financial Systems
Ana Rubio
Financial Inclusion
David Tuesta
Spain and Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
United States
Nathaniel Karp
Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Middle East, Asia and Geopolitical
Álvaro Ortiz
Turkey
Álvaro Ortiz
Asia
Le Xia
South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Argentina
Gloria Sorensen
Chile
Jorge Selaive [email protected]
Colombia
Juana Téllez
Peru
Hugo Perea
Venezuela
Julio Pineda
Fabián García
+57 347 16 00
Mauricio Hernández
+57 347 16 00
María Claudia Llanes
+57 347 16 00
Alejandro Reyes [email protected]
+57 347 16 00
Diego Felipe Suarez
+57 347 16 00
Intern
35
ANNEX:
Main macroeconomic variables
37
Annual macroeconomic forecasts
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(f) 2018(f)
GDP (YoY, %) 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.5 2.0
Private consumption (YoY, %) 3.4 4.3 3.2 2.1 1.6 2.3
Public consumption (YoY, %) 9.2 4.7 5.0 1.8 2.6 1.5
Fixed investment (YoY, %) 6.8 9.8 1.8 -3.6 1.9 3.1
Inflation (% YoY, eop) 1.9 3.7 6.8 5.7 4.3 3.2
Inflation (% YoY, average) 2.0 2.9 5.0 7.5 4.4 3.4
Exchange rate (eop) 1,927 2,392 3,149 3,001 3,047 2,950
Devaluation (%, eop) 9.0 24.1 31.6 -4.7 1.5 -1.4
Exchange rate (average) 1,869 2,001 2,742 3,055 2,977 2,985
Devaluation (%, average) 3.9 7.1 37.0 11.4 -2.5 0.3
BanRep interest rate (%, eop) 3.25 4.50 5.75 5.75 5.25 4.50
Deposit interest rate (%, eop) 4.1 4.3 5.2 6.9 5.3 4.8
Fiscal nalance (% GDP) -2.3 -2.4 -3.0 -4.0 -3.6 -3.1
Current account balance (% GDP) -3.2 -5.2 -6.5 -4.4 -3.9 -3.5
Unemployment rate (%, eop) 9.7 9.3 9.8 9.8 10.6 11.2
Source: Banco de la República, DANE and BBVA Research
Main macroeconomic variables
Tabla 7.1 Previsiones Macroeconómicas
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PIB (% a/a) 4,9 4,4 3,1 2,0 1,5 2,0
Consumo Privado (% a/a) 3,4 4,3 3,2 2,1 1,6 2,3
Consumo Público (% a/a) 9,2 4,7 5,0 1,8 2,6 1,5
Inversión (% a/a) 6,8 9,8 1,8 -3,6 1,9 3,1
Inflación (% a/a, fdp) 1,9 3,7 6,8 5,7 4,3 3,2
Inflación (% a/a, promedio) 2,0 2,9 5,0 7,5 4,4 3,4
Tasa de cambio (fdp) 1.927 2.392 3.149 3.001 3.047 2.950
Devaluación (%, fdp) 9,0 24,1 31,6 -4,7 1,5 -1,4
Tasa de cambio (promedio) 1.869 2.001 2.742 3.055 2.977 2.985
Devaluación (%, fdp) 3,9 7,1 37.0 11,4 -2,5 0.3
Tasa BanRep (%, fdp) 3,25 4,50 5,75 7,50 5,25 4,50
Tasa DTF (%, fdp) 4,1 4,3 5,2 6,9 5,3 4,8
Balance Fiscal GNC (% PIB) -2,3 -2,4 -3,0 -4,0 -3,6 -3,1
Cuenta Corriente (% PIB) -3,2 -5,2 -6,5 -4,4 -3,9 -3,5
Tasa de desempleo urbano 9,7 9,3 9,8 9,8 10,6 11,2
Fuente: Banco de la República, DANE y BBVA Research
Tabla 7.2 Previsiones Macroeconómicas Trimestrales
PIB (% a/a)
Inflación (% a/a, fdp)
Tipo de cambio (vs. USD, fdp)
Tasa BanRep (%, fdp)
T1 14 6,4 2,5 1.965 3,25
T2 14 4,0 2,8 1.881 4,00
T3 14 3,9 2,8 2.028 4,50
T4 14 3,3 3,7 2.392 4,50
T1 15 2,6 4,6 2.576 4,50
T2 15 3,0 4,4 2.585 4,50
T3 15 3,2 5,4 3.122 4,75
T4 15 3,4 6,8 3.149 5,75
T1 16 2,7 8,0 3.022 6,50
T2 16 2,5 8,6 2.916 7,50
T3 16 1,1 7,3 2.880 7,75
T4 16 1,6 5,7 3.001 7,50
T1 17 1,1 4,7 2.880 7,00
T2 17 0,9 4,0 3.038 5,75
T3 17 2,0 4,2 3.050 5,25
T4 17 1,8 4,3 3.047 5,25
T1 18 2,3 3,5 3.013 4,75
T2 18 2,0 3,2 2.991 4,50
T3 18 1,7 3,3 2.952 4,50
T4 18 1,8 3,2 2.950 4,50
Fuente: Banco de la República, DANE y BBVA Research
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