launch vehicle success rates

5 3 2014 Space Launch Report 2014 Launch Stats

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2014 Space Launch Report

Updated March 4, 2014

2014 Launch Vehicle Standings 2014 Launch Site/Country Standings Launch Vehicle by Success Rate 2014 Orbital Launch Log 2014 Suborbital Launch LogSpace Launch Forecast

GSLV-D5 performed India's First Successful Indigenously

Developed LH2/LOX Upper Stage Mission on January 5, 2014.

2014 LAUNCH STATS

======================================================== SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

2014 LAUNCH VEHICLE/SITE STATISTICS======================================================== by Ed Kyle as of March 4, 2014========================================================

YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape trajectories.

========================================================= Vehicle Overall By Orbit Type Launches Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape (Failures) LEO >LEO Deep Space=========================================================Ariane 5 1(0) - 1(0) -Proton 1(0) - 1(0) -Atlas 5 1(0) - 1(0) -Falcon 9 1(0) - 1(0) -Delta 4 1(0) - 1(0) -H-2A 1(0) 1(0) - -R-7 1(0) 1(0) - -Antares 1(0) 1(0) - -GSLV 1(0) - 1(0) ----------------------------------------------------------

Total 9(0) 3(0) 6(0) -



Antares Details------------------------------------------------------------Antares 120 1(0) 1(0) - -Antares 130 - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------

Ariane 5 Details------------------------------------------------------------Ariane 5ECA 1(0) - 1(0) - Ariane 5ES - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------

Atlas 5 Details-----------------------------------------------------------Atlas 5-401 1(0) - 1(0) -Atlas 5-411 - - - - Atlas 5-421 - - - -Atlas 5-431 - - - -Atlas 5-501 - - - -Atlas 5-531 - - - -Atlas 5-541 - - - -Atlas 5-551 - - - ------------------------------------------------------------

Chang Zheng (Long March) Details------------------------------------------------------------CZ-2C - - - -CZ-2D - - - -CZ-2F (M) - - - -CZ-2FT1 - - - - CZ-3A - - - -CZ-3B(/E) - - - - CZ-3C - - - - CZ-4B - - - -CZ-4C - - - -------------------------------------------------------------

Delta 4 Details------------------------------------------------------------Delta 4M - - - -Delta 4M+4,2 1(0) - 1(0) -Delta 4M+5,2 - - - -Delta 4M+5,4 - - - -Delta 4H - - - -------------------------------------------------------------

Falcon 9 Details------------------------------------------------------------Falcon 9 v1.0 - - - -Falcon 9 v1.1 1(0) - 1(0) -------------------------------------------------------------

H-2A/B Details-------------------------------------------------------------H-2A/202 1(0) 1(0) - -H-2A/204 - - - -H-2B/304 - - - -

-------------------------------------------------------------

Proton Details



Proton Details------------------------------------------------------------Proton-M/Briz-M 1(0) - 1(0) -Proton-K/DM-2 - - - - Proton-M/DM-03 - - - --------------------------------------------------------------

PSLV Details------------------------------------------------------------PSLV-C - - - - PSLV-CA (Core Alone) - - - - PSLV-XL-C - - - --------------------------------------------------------------

Soyuz/Molniya (R-7) Details -------------------------------------------------------------Soyuz-U (Progress) 1(0) 1(0) - -Soyuz-U (Kosmos) - - - -Soyuz-FG/Fregat - - - -Soyuz-FG/Soyuz (M) - - - -Soyuz-2-1a - - - -Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat - - - -Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat - - - -Soyuz-2-1b - - - -

NK-33A PoweredSoyuz 2-1v/Volga - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------

Zenit Details-----------------------------------------------------------Zenit 3SL/DMSL - - - -Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB - - - - Zenit 3F/Fregat SB - - - -Zenit 2SB - - - - -----------------------------------------------------------

Launch Vehicle Site Summary

=========================================================

YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH SITE SUMMARY

Launch sites, ranked by number of year-to-date orbital launch attempts.

=========================================================Site Overall Launches (Failures) =========================================================Baikonur, Kazakhstan 2(0) Cape Canaveral, Florida 3(0)Jiuquan, China Kourou, French Guyana 1(0)Plesetsk, Russia Vandenberg AFB, California Taiyaun, China

Wallops Island, Virgina 1(0)XiChang, China Sriharikota, India 1(0) Tanegashima, Japan 1(0)Dombarovsky, Russia



Dombarovsky, Russia Naro Space Center, South Korea Odyssey LP, Pacific Ocean Taiyaun, China Kagoshima, Japan Sohae, North Korea Semnam, Iran Kwajalein, RMI Kodiak LC, Alaska Palmachim, Israel =========================================================

Launch Total by Country of First or Core Stage Manufacture

========================================================== Vehicle Overall By Orbit Type Launches Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape (Failures) LEO >LEO Deep Space==========================================================Russia 2(0) 1(0) 1(0) - United States 3(0) - 3(0) - China - - - -Ukraine 1(0) 1(0) - - Europe 1(0) - 1(0) - Japan 1(0) 1(0) - - India 1(0) - 1(0) - South Korea - - - -Iran - - - -==========================================================

Launch Total by Country of Upper Stage Manufacture

========================================================== Vehicle Overall By Orbit Type Launches Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape (Failures) LEO >LEO Deep Space==========================================================Russia 2(0) 1(0) 1(0) - United States 4(0) 1(0) 3(0) - China - - - -Ukraine - - - - Europe 1(0) - 1(0) - Japan 1(0) 1(0) - - India 1(0) - 1(0) - South Korea - - - -Iran - - - -==========================================================

Launch Vehicle by Success Rate

================================================================ SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS================================================================ by Ed Kyle as of March 4, 2014



by Ed Kyle as of March 4, 2014 ================================================================

Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates Rate Rate* Succes Fail ================================================================Delta 2 149 151 .99 .98 96 1/17/97 1989- Soyuz-FG 36 36 1.00 .97 36 None 2001-Soyuz-U 747 767x .97 .97 10 8/24/11 1973-Atlas 5 42 43 .98 .96 33 6/15/07 2002-Ariane 5-ECA 42 43 .98 .96 42 12/11/02 2002-CZ-4(A/B/C) 34 35 .97 .95 0 12/9/13 1988- CZ-2D 20 20 1.00 .95 20 None 1993-Delta 4M(+) 18 18 1.00 .95 18 None 2002-CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM) 39 41 .95 .93 5 08/18/11 1974- CZ-2F(T1) 11 11 1.00 .92 11 None 1999- Minotaur 1 11 11 1.00 .92 11 None 2000- Soyuz FG/Fregat 10 10 1.00 .92 10 None 2003-CZ-3B/3C 34 36 .94 .92 22 8/31/09 1996-H-2A 22 23 .96 .92 17 11/29/03 2001-Proton-M/Briz-M 66 72 .92 .91 10 12/08/12 2001-Dnepr 18 19 .95 .90 12 7/26/06 1999-CZ-3/3A 33 36 .92 .89 23 8/18/96 1984-PSLV 23 25 .92 .89 21 9/29/97 1993-Rokot/Briz/K(M) 19 21 .90 .87 5 02/01/11 1994- Soyuz 2-1a/Fregt 12 13# .92 .87 10 5/21/09 2006-Zenit 3SL/DMSL 31 35 .89 .86 0 2/1/13 1999-Pegasus (H/XL) 37 42 .88 .86 28 11/4/96 1991-Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 10 11 .91 .85 4 12/23/11 2006-Ariane 5ES 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2008-H-2B 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2009-Soyuz-U/Fregat 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2000- Minotaur 4/5 4 4++ 1.00 .83 4 None 2010-Falcon 9 v1.1 3 3 1.00 .80 3 None 2013-Soyuz 2-1b 3 3 1.00 .80 3 None 2008-Antares 3 3 1.00 .80 3 None 2013-Delta IV-H 6 7 .86 .78 6 12/21/04 2004-Zenit 2(M/SB) 30 38 .78 .77 7 9/9/98 1985-Zenit 3F/FregatSB 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2011-Shtil' 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 1998-Vega 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2012-Strela 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2003-Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 5 6 .83 .75 5(B) 4/28/08 2008-Soyuz 2-1v 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2013-Soyuz 2-1a 1 1# 1.00 .67 1 None 2004-Epsilon 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2013-Kuaizhou 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2013-Shavit(-1,-2) 6 9 .67 .64 2 9/6/04 1988-Taurus (XL) 6 9 .67 .64 0 3/4/11 1994- Safir 4 7 .57 .56(C) 0 9/2/12 2008-GSLV 3 8 .38 .40 1 12/25/10 2001-KSLV-1 (Angara) 1 3 .33 .40 1 6/10/10 2009-

Volna 0 1 .00 .33 0 6/21/05 2005-Unha (TD-2) 1 4% .25 .33 1 4/12/12 2006-Proton-M/DM-03 0 2 .00 .25 0 7/2/13 2010-================================================================ * First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successful events and n is the number of trials.



number of successful events and n is the number of trials.

# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test flight performed in 2004.

++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite flights in 2010-11.

x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying launch vehicle on 9-26-1983. Note that 10 additional Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all successful) are cataloged separately.% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital test launch attempt.

(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of damage suffered during launch phase.

(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two to three years of 18 year design life.

(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch attempts occurred during 2012. ================================================================

=============================================================== SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS================================================================ by Ed Kyle ================================================================Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates Rate Rate* Succes Fail ================================================================ Atlas 2/2AS 63 63 1.00 .98 63 None 1991-2004Tsyklon 2 104 105 .99 .98 92 4/25/73 1967-2006STS 132 135 .98 .97 22(A) 2/1/03 1981-2011 Ariane 4 113 116 .97 .97 74 12/11/94 1988-2003Titan 2 17 17# 1.00 .95 17 None 1964-2003 Kosmos 3M 423 446 .95 .95 22 11/20/00 1964-2010Molniya M 277 296 .94 .93 4 6/21/05 1963-2010Proton-K/DM-2M 40 42 .95 .93 7 11/25/02 1994-2006Tsyklon 3 114 122 .93 .93 1 12/24/04 1977-2009Proton-K/DM-2 101 109 .93 .92 15 10/27/99 1982-2012Atlas 3(A/B) 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2000-2005Soyuz-U/Ikar 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1999-1999

Proton-M/DM-2 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2007-2010Proton-K/17S40 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1997-2002Proton-K 26 29+ .90 .87 9 11/29/86 1968-2000 Ariane 5G(+,S) 22 25 .88 .85 15 7/12/01 1996-2009Titan 4B 15 17 .88 .84 12 4/30/99 1997-2005 Titan 2(Star) 6 7% .86 .78 6 10/5/93 1964-2003M-5 6 7 .86 .78 4 2/10/00 1997-2006START(-1) 6 7 .86 .78 5 3/28/95 1993-2006Falcon 9 v1.0 4 5 .80 .71 1 10/8/12 2010-2013



Falcon 9 v1.0 4 5 .80 .71 1 10/8/12 2010-2013Proton-K/Briz-M 3 4 .75 .67 3 7/5/99 1999-2003Falcon 1 2 5 .40 .43 2 8/3/08 2006-2009================================================================ #Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions.

%Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity increment. The single failure listed here involved the Star 37 stage.

+ Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight performed in 1970. (A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of damage suffered during launch phase.

2014 SPACE LAUNCH LOG

========================================================================= SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

2012 ORBITAL/SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG========================================================================= by Ed Kyle as of March 4, 2014 =========================================================================

YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL SPACE LAUNCH LOG

DATE VEHICLE ID PAYLOAD MASS(t) SITE* ORBIT**-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------01/05/14 GSLV Mk.2 D5 GSAT 14 1.98 SR SLP GTO [1]01/06/14 Falcon 9 v1.1 F9-8 Thaicom 6 3.016 CC 40 GTO+01/09/14 Antares 120 A3 Cygnus/Orb 1 4.69 WI 0A LEO/ISS01/24/14 Atlas 5-401 AV043 TDRS-L 3.454 CC 41 GTO+02/05/14 Soyuz U 1814 Progress M-22M 7.2 TB 1/5 LEO/ISS02/06/14 Ariane 5 ECA L572 VA217/ABS2/Athena-Fidus 9.41 KO 3 GTO02/14/14 Proton M/Briz M 93543 Turksat 4A 4.85 TB 81/24 GTO+02/21/14 Delta 4M+4,2 D365 GPS 2F-5 1.63 CC 37B MEO02/27/14 H-2A-202 F23 GPM Core Observatory 3.85 TA Y1 LEO-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[1] ISRO's first indiginous cryo upper stage success.==================================================================================

2014 Major Suborbital Log

2014 MAJOR SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG Suborbital Launches Using Booster Hardware Also Used for Orbital Launches==================================================================================

DATE VEHICLE ID PAYLOAD MASS(t) SITE* ORBIT**------------------------------------------------------------------------------------03/04/14 Topol ICBM Test KY SUB [1]------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[1] Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan. =================================================================================

*Site Code:



BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), RussiaCC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA DO = Dombarovsky, Russia FLP = First Launch PadJQ = Ji Quan, China KA = Kagoshima, Japan KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USAKO = Kourou, French GuyanaKW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.KY = Kapustin Yar, RussiaME = Meck Island, Kwajalein Atoll, RMIMU = Musudan-ri North KoreaNA = Naro Space Center, South KoreaNP = North Pole Submarine LaunchOK = Sea of OkhotskOLP = Odyssey Launch PlatformPA = Palamchima, Isreal PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, RussiaPO = Pacific Ocean (154W-0N for Sea Launch)SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir DesertSO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North KoreaSR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, IndiaSLP = Second Launch PadTA = Tanageshima, Japan TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, KazakstahnTY = Taiyuan, China WH = White Sea (Sub Launch), RussiaWI = Wallops Island XC = Xi Chang, China VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USAYO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad

**Orbit Code:

EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth OrbitFTO = Failed to OrbitFSO = Failed SuborbitalGTO = Geosynchronous Transfer OrbitGTO+ = Supersynchronous or High Perigee Transfer OrbitGTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer OrbitGTOi = Inclined GTOGEO = Geosynchronous OrbitHCO = Heliocentric (solar) OrbitHTO = High Earth Transfer OrbitLEO = Low Earth OrbitLEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth OrbitLEO/P = Polar Low Earth OrbitMEO = Medium Earth OrbitMTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit SUB = Suborbital=========================================================================

Space Launch Forecast

======================================================================== SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

ON THE PAD: SPACE LAUNCH FORECAST======================================================================== by Ed Kyle as of March 4, 2014=========================================================================



=========================================================================This space launch forecast, like all such space launch schedules, should not be considered anything but a vague long-term forecast. The dates, sequence, and even the total number of launches, can and almost certainly will be altered as time passes. (Predicting launch dates is much like trying to predict the weather months in advance.)

==================================================================================DATE VEHICLE ID PAYLOAD MASS(t) SITE* ORBIT**----------------------------------------------------------------------------------03/--/14 Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat Glonass M PL LEO03/--/14 Proton M/Briz M Express AT1/AT2 TB GTO03/--/14 Falcon 9 v1.1 F9-9 CRS-3 Dragon CC 40 LEO/ISS03/--/14 Ariane 5 ECA Astra 5B/Amazonas 4A KO 3 GTO03/--/14 Atlas 5-541 AV045 NRO L-67 CC 41 GTO03/--/14 Soyuz FG Soyuz TMA-12M 7.2 TB LEO/ISS

--/--/14 CZ-4B Gaofen 2 TY LEO/S----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), RussiaCC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA DO = Dombarovsky, RussiaFLP = First Launch PadGO = Goheung (Naro), South KoreaJQ = Ji Quan, China KA = Kagoshima, Japan KO = Kourou, French GuyanaKC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USAKD = Kodiak, AlaskaKW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.MU = Musudan-ri, North KoreaOLP = Odyssey Launch PlatformPA = Palamchima, Isreal PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, RussiaPO = Pacific Ocean Range 154W-0N SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir DesertSO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North KoreaSR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, IndiaSLP = Second Launch PadSV = Svobodny Cosmodrome, RussiaTA = Tanageshima, Japan TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, KazakstahnTY = Taiyuan, China WI = Wallops Island XC = Xi Chang, China VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA

YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad

**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth OrbitEEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth OrbitFTO = Failed to OrbitFSO = Failed SuborbitalGTO = Geosynchronous Transfer OrbitGTO+ = Supersynchronous Transfer OrbitGTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer OrbitGEO = Geosynchronous Orbit



GEO = Geosynchronous OrbitHCO = Heliocentric (solar) OrbitHTO = High Earth Transfer OrbitLEO = Low Earth OrbitLEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth OrbitLEO/P = Polar Low Earth OrbitMEO = Medium Earth OrbitMTO = Medium Earth Transfer OrbitSUB = Suborbital

=========================================================================

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