launching a free-to-play game: strategies, risks, and pitfalls
TRANSCRIPT
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Launching a Free-to-Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls
Eric Benjamin SeufertVP of User Acquisition, RovioOwner, Mobile Dev Memo
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Who am I?
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Who am I?
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Who am I?
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Who am I?
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Presentation Structure
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Presentation Structure
I. State of the Market / Current Challenges
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
![Page 12: Launching a Free-to-Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032513/55d0564dbb61ebad7b8b4767/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
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Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
•Advertising costs are high
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Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
•Advertising costs are high
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Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
•Succeeding on the App Store is difficult by design.
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App Store Discovery is Not Broken
January 2015
1.43MM apps
1.21MM apps
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App Store Discovery is Not Broken
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App Store Discovery is Not Broken
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Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJune 1, 2015
(6)
(2)
(2)
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Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJune 1, 2015
*
*
*
*
*
*
X
X
\
\
*X\
Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary of the “Great Unbundling”
Temporary viral / paid blip
Truly Viral phenomenon
(6)
(2)
(2)
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Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJuly 29, 2015
(6)
(2)
(2)
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Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJuly 29, 2015
*
*
b
*
*
X
\
*X\
Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary of the “Great Unbundling”Temporary viral / paid blip
Truly Viral phenomenon
(6)
(2)
(2)
*
b Brand integration
X
\
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Existing Networks 6 5
Facebook 2 4
Google 2 1
Other 2 1
Viral Phenomena 2 2
Temporary Blips 2 2
Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJuly 29, 2015June 1, 2015
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Advertising vs. Existing Networks•Advertising costs are going up…
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Advertising vs. Existing Networks
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Advertising vs. Existing Networks•Advertising costs are going up……because the largest developers are monetizing their networks…
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Advertising vs. Networks
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Advertising vs. Existing Networks•Advertising costs are going up……because the largest developers are monetizing their networks……and retaining them within their portfolio via cross-promotion…
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Advertising vs. Networks
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Advertising vs. Networks
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Advertising vs. Networks•Advertising costs are going up……because the largest developers are monetizing their networks……and retaining them within their portfolio via cross-promotion…•With a single title, you’re not competing with large developers on the basis of LTV > CPI (game quality), you’re competing on the basis of network size.
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
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Positioning vs. Marketing
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Positioning vs. Marketing
•Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;
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Positioning vs. Marketing
•Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;•F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on marketing tactics;
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
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“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
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Bala
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“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Second-screen
Extension
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
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Req
uir
em
en
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Bala
nce
Sh
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Req
uir
em
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“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Second-screen
Extension
Full F2P Economy Games
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
![Page 42: Launching a Free-to-Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032513/55d0564dbb61ebad7b8b4767/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
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Sh
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Req
uir
em
en
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Bala
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Sh
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Req
uir
em
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“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Second-screen
Extension
Full F2P Economy Games
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
?
![Page 43: Launching a Free-to-Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032513/55d0564dbb61ebad7b8b4767/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Positioning vs. Marketing
•Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;•F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on marketing tactics;•Traction without billions on the balance sheet has to come from product positioning.
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Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:
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Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”
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Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”•“Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”
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Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”•“Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”•“Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”
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Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”•“Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”•“Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”•“Can the essence of the game be communicated quickly and clearly?”
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
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Assumption Challenge (Strawman)
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Assumption Challenge (Strawman)A successful game launch will look like this on the Top Downloaded chart:
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Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
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Req
uir
em
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t
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Crossy Road
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Developer Hipster Whale (AUS)Hipster Whale (AUS) / Yodo1
(CHI)
Release Date: November 19, 2014 January 10, 2015
Top Downloaded Rank Reached (US):
4 2
Days from Release to Top Downloaded Rank:
4 8
Crossy Road
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Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
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Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#225
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Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
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Quadrant 1
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Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-friction monetization, novel gameplay.
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Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay depth to introduce true game economy. Once novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad monetization experiences rapid decay.
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Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay depth to introduce true game economy. Once novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad monetization experiences rapid decay.
Pitfalls: Viral misfire. Game doesn’t take off due to lack of resonance and / or untenable depth.
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Marvel: Contest of Champions
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Marvel: Contest of Champions
Developer Kabam Kabam
Release Date: December 10, 2014 December 10, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank Reached (US):
3 11
Days from Release to Top Downloaded Rank:
2 7
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Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
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Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#10
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Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
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Quadrant 2
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Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand recognition.
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Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand recognition.
Risks: Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with fans of the game type (match 3 / build and battle / etc.).
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Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand recognition.
Risks:
Pitfalls:
Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with fans of the game type (match 3 / build and battle / etc.).
Onerous IP licensing terms prevent profitability of marketing. Social media reach of IP owner is overestimated.
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Cookie Jam
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Cookie Jam
Developer SGN (USA) / NetEase (CHI) SGN (USA)
Release Date: February 27, 2014 March 29, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank Reached (US):
15 17
Days from Release to Top Downloaded Rank:
36 141
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Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
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Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#26
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Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
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Quadrant 3
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Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable unit economics.
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Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable unit economics.
Risks: Inability to scale unit economics beyond a minimal threshold.
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Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable unit economics.
Risks:
Pitfalls:
Inability to scale unit economics beyond a minimal threshold.
Lack of organizational commitment to reach consumer “break through” on IP. Lack of analytical sophistication.
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Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
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Take-aways
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Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;
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Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;•Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;
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Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;•Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;•Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale than LTV / CPI;
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Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;•Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;•Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale than LTV / CPI;•Don’t try to emulate a competitor’s title unless you know their financials.
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Thank you, Priori Data!•Provided the data used in this presentation•Berlin-based app store analytics start-up•http://prioridata.com
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[email protected]@eric_seufert