lb-escoot-13 executive summary -...

RESEARCH REPORT

Dave Hurst

Principal Research Analyst

John Gartner

Research Director

Executive Summary: Navigant Research Leaderboard Report: Electric Scooters Assessment of Strategy and Execution for 12 Electric Scooter Manufacturers

NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Navigant Research at [email protected].

Published 4Q 2013

RESEARCH REPORT

Navigant Research Leaderboard Report: Electric Scooters

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Market Introduction

Scooters are generally defined by the top speed of the vehicle and in some cases by weight. Although definitions vary by country and often by state and province, scooters are usually characterized as vehicles with a top speed of over 25 kph (16 mph) and less than 50 kph (31 mph) and a weight greater than 40 kg.

The market for electric scooters (e-scooters) is essentially split between Asia Pacific and everywhere else. Sales of e-scooters in Asia Pacific are significant, reaching an estimated 9.4 million vehicles in China and 2.6 million in all other countries in 2013. Combined, sales in regions outside of Asia Pacific are estimated at 31,338 vehicles. Note, though, that Western Europe is among the fastest-growing regions in terms of e-scooter sales and is expected to top 100,000 vehicles by 2018.

In Asia Pacific and other regions, e-scooter growth is being driven by the following trends:

» Growth of two-wheel vehicles as a form of transportation: Scooters (and other two-wheel vehicles) are more likely to be used as everyday transportation, particularly in Asia Pacific, where lead-acid battery-based e-scooters are increasingly competitively priced with gas scooters. Both types of scooters are significantly lower in cost than automobiles in all regions.

» Increasing urbanization and traffic congestion: These issues are expanding the travel times of automobiles. Governments are thus increasingly considering scooters and other two-wheel vehicles as an alternative to reduce automobile traffic congestion.

» Demographic shifts: In Asia Pacific, the number of working age individuals (ages 15 to 64) that need transportation is increasing. In North America and Europe, interest in automobile ownership among those under age 30 is declining.

Despite these drivers, however, the global e-scooter market faces several challenges. For example, the costs of e-scooters continue to be higher than those for comparable gasoline models. This is particularly true in North America and Europe, where e-scooters are largely utilizing the more expensive lithium ion (Li-ion) battery packs. Additionally, outside of a select few countries (including China, Japan, and increasingly, India and Germany), the distribution channel for e-scooter sales remains challenging due to the small number of e-scooter dealers. Regardless, several key competitors have emerged, including recognized names from the traditional scooter market and new e-scooter-specific manufacturers.



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As such, the e-scooter market consists of a vast number of competitors. In order to keep the Leaderboard Grid useful and manageable, the competitors covered in this Navigant Research Leaderboard Report were chosen according to a few key requirements, including the following:

» The companies must compete in multiple countries.

» They have either distribution channels or sales that make them current or potential competitors in multiple regions.

» They have products that vary significantly depending on the market for which they are originally developed.

» They have developed an e-scooter or components to be used in e-scooters that they are selling. This requirement is due to the large number of companies simply rebranding other manufacturers’ products.

Based on this process of narrowing the field, Navigant Research chose 12 e-scooter companies to be examined in this Leaderboard Report. The criteria by which these companies are compared include:

» Vision

» Go-to-Market Strategy

» Partners

» Product and Production Strategy

» Technology

» Geographic Reach

» Market Share

» Sales and Marketing

» Product Quality and Reliability

» Product Features

» Pricing

» Staying Power

Detailed descriptions of each criterion are provided in the “Criteria Definitions” section of this report.

1.2 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid

Only one company achieved Leader status in this Leaderboard Report: Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co. This achievement was largely driven by Xinri’s competitiveness in the large Chinese market, as well as the company’s ability to export to most regions and its investment in improved quality and R&D. Five of the competitors in this report fall into the Contenders



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category. The Contenders have strong products, distribution channels, and financial resources and have the potential to become Leaders. In the next grouping are the Challengers, which show some signs of weakness in either strategy or execution. Yet, these companies have the potential to move toward Contender or Leader positions. Challengers such as Elmoto are positioned in this category due to their niche market strategy or the fact that they are early in their product development. Notably, only Honda fell into the Followers category in this Leaderboard Report.

Chart 1.1 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid

(Source: Navigant Research)



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Section 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1 ........................................................................................................................................................... 1

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Market Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1

1.2 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid ........................................................................................... 2

Section 2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 4

Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 4

2.1 Market Definition ................................................................................................................................ 4

2.2 Market Drivers .................................................................................................................................... 4

2.2.1 Electric Scooters for Transportation ............................................................................................... 4

2.2.2 Impact of Urbanization .................................................................................................................. 5

2.2.3 Demographic Shifts ...................................................................................................................... 5

2.3 Market Barriers ................................................................................................................................... 6

2.4 Market Trends .................................................................................................................................... 6

Section 3 ........................................................................................................................................................... 8

The Navigant Research Leaderboard ................................................................................................................ 8

3.1 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Categories.................................................................................. 8

3.1.1 Leaders ........................................................................................................................................ 8

3.1.2 Contenders .................................................................................................................................. 8

3.1.3 Challengers .................................................................................................................................. 8

3.1.4 Followers ..................................................................................................................................... 8

3.2 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid ........................................................................................... 9



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Section 4 .......................................................................................................................................................... 11

Company Rankings .......................................................................................................................................... 11

4.1 Leaders ............................................................................................................................................. 11

4.1.1 Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co. .......................................................................................................... 11

4.2 Contenders ....................................................................................................................................... 12

4.2.1 Vmoto ......................................................................................................................................... 12

4.2.2 SYM ............................................................................................................................................ 14

4.2.3 Vectrix ........................................................................................................................................ 15

4.2.4 Terra Motors ............................................................................................................................... 16

4.2.5 GOVECS ..................................................................................................................................... 18

4.3 Challengers ....................................................................................................................................... 19

4.3.1 Yamaha ...................................................................................................................................... 19

4.3.2 Peugeot ...................................................................................................................................... 21

4.3.3 iO Scooter ................................................................................................................................... 22

4.3.4 BV Nimag (Nimoto) ...................................................................................................................... 23

4.3.5 Elmoto ........................................................................................................................................ 24

4.4 Followers .......................................................................................................................................... 26

4.4.1 Honda ......................................................................................................................................... 26

Section 5 .......................................................................................................................................................... 28

Company Directory .......................................................................................................................................... 28

Section 6 .......................................................................................................................................................... 29

Acronym and Abbreviation List ....................................................................................................................... 29

Section 7 .......................................................................................................................................................... 30

Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................. 30



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Section 8 .......................................................................................................................................................... 33

Table of Charts and Figures ............................................................................................................................. 33

Section 9 .......................................................................................................................................................... 34

Scope of Study and Methodology .................................................................................................................... 34

9.1 Scope of Study .................................................................................................................................. 34

9.2 Sources and Methodology .................................................................................................................. 34

9.2.1 Vendor Selection ......................................................................................................................... 35

9.2.2 Ratings Scale .............................................................................................................................. 35

9.2.2.1 Score Calculations .................................................................................................................. 35

9.2.3 Criteria Definitions ....................................................................................................................... 35

9.2.3.1 Strategy .................................................................................................................................. 35

9.2.3.2 Execution................................................................................................................................ 36



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Section 8 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES

Chart 1.1 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid...................................................................................... 3

Chart 2.1 Annual Electric Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 .............................................. 7

Chart 3.1 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid...................................................................................... 9

Chart 4.1 Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co. Strategy and Execution Scores ........................................................... 12

Chart 4.2 Vmoto Strategy and Execution Scores .......................................................................................... 13

Chart 4.3 SYM Strategy and Execution Scores ............................................................................................. 15

Chart 4.4 Vectrix Strategy and Execution Scores ......................................................................................... 16

Chart 4.5 Terra Motors Strategy and Execution Scores ................................................................................. 17

Chart 4.6 GOVECS Strategy and Execution Scores ...................................................................................... 19

Chart 4.7 Yamaha Strategy and Execution Scores ........................................................................................ 20

Chart 4.8 Peugeot Strategy and Execution Scores ....................................................................................... 22

Chart 4.9 iO Scooter Strategy and Execution Scores .................................................................................... 23

Chart 4.10 BV Nimag (Nimoto) Strategy and Execution Scores ....................................................................... 24

Chart 4.11 Elmoto Strategy and Execution Scores ......................................................................................... 25

Chart 4.12 Honda Strategy and Execution Scores .......................................................................................... 27

Table 2.1 Comparison of Electric and Gas-Powered Scooter Costs: 2013 ....................................................... 6

Table 3.1 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Overall Scores ..................................................................... 10



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Section 9 SCOPE OF STUDY AND METHODOLOGY

9.1 Scope of Study

Navigant Research has prepared this report to provide participants in the electric scooter (e-scooter) market with an analysis of the current landscape of e-scooter manufacturers. The report is intended to help manufacturers and suppliers to the e-scooter market understand how companies and brands fit into the overall global market landscape. This Navigant Research Leaderboard Report focuses only on e-scooter manufacturers that sell e-scooters in multiple regions or have the potential to do so in the very near term. Note that this report does not provide an exhaustive list of manufacturers, as the market is highly fragmented. Hundreds, if not thousands, of smaller competitors were not included because of their lack of geographic reach. Also excluded were a wide variety of Chinese manufacturers that utilize components from other manufacturers to target the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets.

The major objective of this Leaderboard Report is to provide a timely overview of the companies involved in this market, as well as their strategy and execution in manufacturing, marketing, and delivering e-scooters. Note that the company ratings capture the vendor’s standing at the time of the report and are not a retrospective of past accomplishments or an indication of future success. The ratings are likely to change rapidly in this shifting market as new entrants gain a foothold, companies switch focus and direction, and business models continue to evolve.

9.2 Sources and Methodology

Navigant Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Navigant Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community.

Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Navigant Research’s analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report.

These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Navigant Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients.



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Navigant Research is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Navigant Research is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.

9.2.1 Vendor Selection

The companies covered in this Leaderboard Report are original equipment manufacturers (OEMs); that is, companies looking to sell e-scooters to retail and fleet customers. Additionally, these OEMs have a distribution target of either regional or worldwide sales, or are already selling internationally. Excluded from this comparison are companies that are focused on only very small niches, are owner/operator operations, or are focused on retrofits.

9.2.2 Ratings Scale

Companies are rated relative to each other using the following point system. The ratings are a snapshot in time, showing the current state of the company. These scores are likely to be fluid as new competitors enter the market and customer requirements evolve.

» Very Strong 90-100

» Strong 70-80

» Strong Moderate 50-60

» Moderate 30-40

» Weak Moderate 20-30

» Weak 10

» Very Weak 0

9.2.2.1 Score Calculations

The scores for Strategy and Execution are weighted averages based on the subcategories. The overall score is calculated based on the root mean square of the Strategy and Execution scores.

9.2.3 Criteria Definitions

9.2.3.1 Strategy

» Vision: Evaluates the company's stated goals in designing market solutions against the actual needs of customers based on the entire environment in which they will operate. Clear and compelling visions that are effectively communicated to the industry result in higher scores.

» Go-to-Market Strategy: Evaluates the company's strategy for reaching the target market, including the sales and marketing channels to be used, as well as the processes established for informing the target market about brand differentiation and unique product value.



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» Partners: Measures the company's established partnerships with key organizations that will provide an advantage in financial backing, sales, business, and product development. Affiliations with established battery and motor manufacturers, IT providers, and other established firms in the supply chain positively affect scores in this Leaderboard Report.

» Product and Production Strategy: Evaluates the long-term competitiveness of the product and manufacturing plan, both as an effective solution that satisfies market requirements and as a competitive line for the company to merit continued product development investment. A component of this is an evaluation of the manufacturing base to supply product quality to meet market expectations and demand.

» Technology: Evaluates whether the company has developed and/or patented technology that provides a significant business advantage over competitors that is likely to have an enduring impact on its success. Higher scores are given if the company's technology is market tested and delivers unique product attributes (range, top speed, recharging rates, etc.).

» Geographic Reach: An evaluation of companies’ ability to reach national and international customers through networks of distributors and resellers. Scores are lower if the company does not have a sales or dealer strategy suitable for retail or fleet sales multiple regions.

9.2.3.2 Execution

» Market Share: Evaluates the company's current share of the e-scooter market at both the national and regional level. Manufacturers are given higher scores if they have strong market share in their home market and also have an established market presence outside their home market.

» Sales and Marketing: Evaluates the capabilities of the company’s existing sales and marketing resources, the company’s understanding of the most suitable target markets, and its ability to successfully influence customer perceptions and purchases. Higher scores are given to companies that have established relationships with a large number of e-scooter dealers.

» Product Quality and Reliability: Evaluates the quality and reliability of the e-scooters delivered to customers, the company’s strategy to develop quality products for the market, and its track record on quality with the current product line.

» Product Features: Addresses the products' relative competitiveness and suitability to the market. Points are awarded for product performance (acceleration, top speed, range, recharging times, etc.), uniqueness, and vehicle design for the target market.

» Pricing: Determines the suitability of product pricing based on its feature set, including whether products are available at multiple price points and how pricing compares to that of competitor products.



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» Staying Power: Evaluates whether the company has the financial resources to withstand weak or variable markets and price-based assaults by competitors, as well as its likelihood to continue to pursue e-scooter products in the event of market softening. Also measures the company’s access to capital for long-term investment in product development and its ability to withstand a market transition to a commodity market. Higher scores are given to companies with management teams that have experience and proven track records of success in the powersports industry.



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Published 4Q 2013

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1.303.997.7609 http://www.navigantresearch.com

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