leading the way with cdma gould.pdf · source: cdma development group, emc, nokia. worldwide cdma...
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1 © NOKIA
Leading The WayWith CDMA
Adam GouldCTO, CDMA
VP Technology Management and StrategyNokia Mobile Phones Business Group
27 May 2004
2 © NOKIA
Agenda
• CDMA Market Outlook
• CDMA Technology Evolution
• Nokia in CDMA
• Summary
3 © NOKIA
CDMA Market Outlook
4 © NOKIA Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia.
Worldwide CDMA subscriptions passed the 200m milestone in 1Q04
North America83,000,000
Subscriptions at the end of March 2004
Caribbean & Latin America
30,000,000
Asia-Pacific85,000,000
Europe & Russia
Africa & Middle East
3,000,000
5 © NOKIA
Global CDMA subscription base projected to increase steadily during the next 5 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GlobalEurope & AfricaLatin AmericaNorth AmericaChinaAPAC
Source: Nokia, March 2004
Cumulative CDMA subscriptions (EOY, millions)
6 © NOKIA
N. America CDMA1Q04
Subscriptions 83mVerizon, US 37m 45%Sprint, US 18m 22%Alltel, US 7m 9%Bell Canada, CA 3m 4%
LSA CDMA1Q04
Subscriptions 32mVivo, BR 15m 45%Telcel, VE 3m 8%Telefonica, MX 2m 7%Unefon, MX 1m 4%Iusacell, MX 1m 3%
China CDMA1Q04
Subscriptions 22mChina Unicom 22m 100%
Source: Nokia, May 2004
GLOBAL CDMA1Q04
Subscriptions 202mVerizon 37m 18%China Unicom 22m 11%SK Telecom 18m9%Sprint 18m9%KDDI 17m8% Japan CDMA
1Q04Subscriptions 17mKDDI 17m 100%
Korea CDMA1Q04
Subscriptions 35mSK Telecom 18m 53%KT Freetel 11m 32%LG Telecom 5m 15%Rest of APAC
CDMA1Q04
Subscriptions 11mReliance, IN 6m 57%Tata, IN 1m 7%Hutchison/CAT, TH 1m 5%
LSA CDMA Almost 2nd Largest Region
(Percentages indicate the operators’s share of global / regional CDMA subs base)
7 © NOKIA
8 of CDMA’s Largest Operators in LSA
Source: Nokia, May 2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ver
izo
nW
irel
ess,
US
Ch
ina
Un
ico
m
SK
Tel
eco
m, K
R
Sp
rin
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S
KD
DI,
JP
ViV
o, B
R
Ko
rea
Tel
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m F
reet
el, K
R
Allt
el, U
S
Rel
ian
ce, I
N
LG
Tel
eco
m, K
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Bel
l Can
ada,
CA
Tel
cel,
VE
Tel
us,
CA
Tel
efo
nic
a,
MX
US
Cel
lula
r, U
S
Tel
efo
nic
a,
PE
Sm
artc
om
, CL
Un
efo
n,
MX
CT
I, A
R
Ser
com
, GT
Iusa
cell,
MX
Tat
a, I
N
Hu
tch
iso
n /
CA
T, T
H
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Top 10 - average subs base 15m no 11-20 – average subs base 1.5m Rest – fragmented
Sub
scrip
tions
(m
)
Acc
umul
ated
sha
re o
f glo
balSubs 4Q03
Subs 1Q04
8 © NOKIA
Brazil• Current state:• 15m CDMA subscriptions • AMPS still required
• Key trends going forward:• Services uptake high
• MMS now launched• WAP evolution continues
• Consolidation effect positive• New Brand (Vivo) • Unified services• National programs
• Penetration growth at low- end• Growth elsewhere in LTA as
well
9 © NOKIA
CDMA Market Outlook 2004
• CDMA will continue to gain global share, growing faster than total
• Global CDMA market volume is expected to increase by>20% YoY in 2004.
• Growth is fuelled by:• Rapid subscriber up-take in developing markets
(China, India, Brazil) • Increasing renewal rates in the more mature,
developed economies.
10 © NOKIA
Evolution of CDMA
11 © NOKIA
Explosion of Technologies in CDMA
• Air Interface Evolution
• VMR
• H.264 Advanced Video Codec
• IPv6
• IMS
• Java
12 © NOKIA
Evolution to High Speed Data Standards
1995 200420031999 2000 2001 20021998
IS-95A- 1st Step- 14.4kbps CS
IS-95B- 64kbps- Improved SHO
cdma2000Revision 0
- 2x Voice Capacity- 153kbps PS
IS-8561xEV-DO- No Voice- 2.4Mbps FL- 153 Kbps RL
cdma2000Revision A- Simultaneus Voice
and Data- 307kbps PS
cdma2000Revision B- Minor changes
CDMA2000Revision C
- Voice and Data-3.1 Mbps FL-307 kbps RL
CDMA2000Revision D
- 3.1 Mbps FL - 1.8 Mbps
1xEV-DV
IS-8561xEV-DO
Revision A- 3.1 Mbps FL- 1.8 Mbps RL
13 © NOKIA
LSA Data Deployment Competitiveness
20042003 2005 2006
GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA
1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A
IS-2000 Rev 0 DV Rev C DV Rev D
GSM
IS-856
IS-2000
CDMA Has a Highly Competitive Evolution Path!
14 © NOKIA
What’s Next for CDMA Air Interface Standards?
P-P VoIP on DV and DO
Smart Antennas
Higher speed FL
4G
Capacity Enhancements
15 © NOKIA
Evolution of Voice Services in CDMA
IS-96A1993
Increasing Data Rate
Incr
easi
ng
Qu
alit
y
SMV2001
EVRC1995
QCELP131994
Paradigm ShiftParadigm Shift
Quality QuestQuality Quest
Capacity QuestCapacity Quest
VMR-WB2003
Wideband speech coding offers a
quantum leap in quality
Wideband speech coding offers a
quantum leap in quality
16 © NOKIA
VMR-WB at GlanceVariable Multirate Wideband Codec
A paradigm shift in voice and audio quality
1st globally interoperable codec
Able to trade off quality with capacity
Works both in VoIP& circuit-switched
Extendable to
music
17 © NOKIA
H.264 Advanced Video Codec (AVC)The new joint ITU/MPEG-4 video coding standard
Optimal video experience over 1x
Superior Performance
2x Network Capacity
½ the storage,
handset and server
Robust in wireless error environments
Globally Interoperable
Video Call rates 2-3x HQ
voice calls
18 © NOKIA
IPv6 technology enablesnew mobile services
PresencePresenceMobilityMobility
Push servicesPush servicesPeer-to-peer services
Network Gaming
Peer-to-peer services
Network Gaming
Always On
Global Reachability
Seamless Mobility
19 © NOKIA
IP Multimedia SubsystemIMS
ControlServer
SubscriberServices DB
Application Servers (Operator & 3rd Party)
PresenceServer
LocationServer
MessagingServer
GroupServer
PTTServer
…Server
GamingServer
IMS is a standardized SIP-based framework for IP communications
• Terminal-to-terminal connections for all types of IP-based services
• Across operator networks
• Independent of the access technology
Invite player
Peter: 00:00:00Thomas: 00:00:00
Chat> Peter: hey, look what just passed by! Push to
Stream
Quit
Streaming video from Bill:Streaming video from Bill:Streaming video from Bill:
Streamingvideo
Game data
IP ConnectionIMS Supports Multiple Packet
Core Networks(1x, GPRS…)
IP
SIPSIP
SIP
IMS Supports Multiple Radio Access Networks(1x, GSM, WCDMA…)
The IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) provides centralized registration, session control and charging mechanisms for operators and application developers.
20 © NOKIA
IPv6, VoIP and IMS services• VoIP and real time IMS services
• Require always-on data connections with mobility.• With Mobile IPv4, VoIP quality falls dramatically during
handoffs due to triangle routing
• IPv6 and Mobile IPv6 solve this problem• Mobile IPv6 supports route optimization – reduces round-
trip time.• Fast handoffs reduce context transfer delays.• Allows seamless inter-access technology handoffs of VoIP
and data sessions – e.g. WLAN to CDMA
IPv6, Mobile IPv6 and Fast handoffs are necessary for VoIPservices
21 © NOKIA
Java™ is the leading mobile application development environment
• Over 85 mobile operators worldwide have deployed Java™ download services* (December 2003)
• Over 200 million Java™ enabled handsets on market already by beginning 2004*
• Over 200 Java™ handset models by 27 mobile device vendors already on the market*
• Over 3 million Java developers worldwide*
Global mobile downloads: €2.7 Billion in 20032003: ~10 Million Java downloads globally / month **2004: ~15 Million Java downloads globally / month **
Source: * Sun Microsystems ** Nokia estimate
3936
10
Americas
8
APAC & China
17 14
EMEA
Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03
22 © NOKIA
But Growth in CDMA Still Needs…
Reduction of Fragmentation• Adding Cost• Fewer phone models
Interoperability• Within CDMA• Between CDMA and GSM
Roaming• No technical issues
Competition with GSM Demands
These Steps
23 © NOKIA
Nokia in CDMA
24 © NOKIA
Nokia – Committed to Lead with CDMA
• 13 year history of dedicated CDMA research
• Over 40 million CDMA handsets and over 35 models produced
• Leading edge chipset development
• Pioneering development in next generation technologies
• Major standards influencer and contributor
• Leading role in shaping the direction of the CDMA industry
25 © NOKIA
Pace Continuously Increasing:Customer Base Expansion in 2003
In 2003, Nokia sold
CDMA phones to
65 operatorsin 25
countries
26 © NOKIA
Well performing
CDMA engine
1x, GPS and Phone category expansion
High-end / Symbian
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Nokia Product Range Expansion
27 © NOKIA
Nokia’s First’s in CDMA Technology
World’s First 1xEV-DV High-Speed Data Call
World’s First Dual-Stack IPv6/IPv4 CDMA handset
Variable Rate Multimode Wideband Speech Codec
H.264 Advanced Video Codec
CDMA-GSM MMS Connectivity
IMS in CDMA
TI/ST Chipset Alternative
Many more to come!
28 © NOKIA
Summary
CDMA is a big business
And an even bigger opportunity!
29 © NOKIA