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    QUAN 6610

    Process Variability Concepts 1

    1

    7 QC Tools:The Lean Six Sigma Pocket

    Toolbook

    Flowchart [p. 33-41]

    Check Sheet [p. 78-81]

    Histogram [p. 111-113]

    Pareto [p. 142-144]Cause-and-Effect [p. 146-147]

    Scatter [p. 154-155]

    Control Chart [p. 122-135]

    2

    Pareto Diagram

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    Process Variability Concepts 2

    3

    Step 1: Decide on problem, type ofdata, and causes or categories.

    4

    Step 2: Collect the data.

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    Process Variability Concepts 3

    5

    Step 3: Order the causes or categories.

    6

    Step 4: Calculate the cumulative totals.

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    Process Variability Concepts 4

    7

    Step 5: Draw and label the horizontal

    axis.

    8

    Step 6: Draw, scale, and

    label the vertical axis.

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    Process Variability Concepts 5

    9

    Step 7: Draw bars for each cause orcategory.

    10

    Step 8: Draw cumulative total lines.

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    Process Variability Concepts 6

    11

    Interpret the Pareto Chart.

    12

    Pareto Diagram

    Error Category Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total

    Improper credit check 2 1 1 4

    Unsigned signature card 4 3 2 3 4 2 18Starter checks not provided 4 1 1 6

    Disclosures not provided 1 1 1 3

    Checks not ordered 2 4 3 2 5 16

    Paperwork lost at DP center 1 1 2

    Incorrect data entry at DP 2 2 4

    source: Brightman, Data Analysis

    1. Create a table listing the sources of defects in the first column

    and in the second column calculate the total number of defects per

    source.

    (Using EXCEL)

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    Process Variability Concepts 7

    13

    2. Sort the table by the total number of defects in descending order.

    In the third column, calculate the cumulative percentage for each row

    in the table.

    Error Category Total

    Unsigned signature card 18

    Checks not ordered 16

    St art er chec ks not provided 6

    Improper credit check 4

    Incorrect data entry at DP 4

    Disclosures not provided 3

    Paperwork los t at DP center 2

    Error Category Total Cum %

    Unsigned signature card 18 33.96%

    Checks not ordered 16 64.15%

    Starter checks not provided 6 75.47%

    Improper credit check 4 83.02%

    Incorrect data entry at DP 4 90.57%

    Disclosures not provided 3 96.23%

    Paperwork lost at DP center 2 100.00%

    3. Create a chart with the ChartWizard (custom --- line-column

    on two axes).

    14

    Opening checking account errors

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    Unsig

    nedsig

    natu

    recard

    Checks

    not

    ordered

    Starte

    rche

    cksnotp

    rovid

    ed

    Improp

    ercredit

    che

    ck

    Incorrect

    dataentry

    atD

    P

    Disclos

    ures

    not

    provid

    ed

    Pape

    rworkl

    osta

    tDP

    center

    0.00%

    20.00%

    40.00%

    60.00%

    80.00%

    100.00%

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    Process Variability Concepts 8

    15

    Cause and Effect Diagram

    16

    Step 1: Develop problem statement.

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    Process Variability Concepts 9

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    Step 2: Brainstorm causes.

    18

    Step 2: Brainstorm causes.

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    Process Variability Concepts 10

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    Step 3: Determine the major cause categories.

    20

    Step 4: Determine the category for

    Each listed cause.

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    Process Variability Concepts 11

    21

    Step 4: Determine the category for

    Each listed cause.

    22

    Step 5: Put categories and causes

    On cause & effect diagram.

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    Process Variability Concepts 12

    23

    Step 6: Identify the most likely causes.

    24

    Failure to understand variation isthe central problem of

    management.

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    Process Variability Concepts 13

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    Stable vs. Unstable process

    Stable process: a process in which variation in

    outcomes arises only from common causes.

    Unstable process: a process in which variation is a

    result of both common and special causes.

    source: Moen, Nolan and Provost, Improving Quality Through Planned Experimentation

    26

    Red Bead experiment

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    Process Variability Concepts 14

    27

    Red Bead Experiment

    What are the lessons learned?

    1.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    28

    Time

    Process

    Parameter

    Upper Control Limit (UCL)

    Lower Control Limit (LCL)

    Center Line

    Track process parameter over time

    - mean

    - percentage defects

    Distinguish between

    - common cause variation

    (within control limits)

    - assignable cause variation

    (outside control limits)

    Measure process performance:

    how much common cause variation

    is in the process while the process

    is in control?

    Statistical Process Control:

    Control Charts

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    Conceptual

    view

    of SPC

    source: Donald Wheeler, Understanding Statistical Process Control

    30

    Process

    Stability

    vs.

    Process

    Capability

    Wheeler, Understanding Statistical Process Control

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    Advantages of Statistical Control

    1. Can predict its behavior.

    2. Process has an identity.

    3. Operates with less variability.

    4. A process having special causes is unstable.

    5. Tells workers when adjustments should not be made.

    6. Provides direction for reducing variation.

    7. Plotting of data allows identifying trends over time.

    8. Identifies process conditions that can result in an

    acceptable product.

    source: Juran and Gryna, Quality Planning and Analysis, p. 380-381.

    32

    Identifying Special Causes of Variation

    source: Brian Joiner, Fourth Generation Management, pp. 260.

    See also Lean Six Sigma

    Pocket Toolbook, p. 133-135.

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    Strategies for Reducing Special Causes of Variation

    Get timely data so special causes are signaled

    quickly.

    Put in place an immediate remedy to contain any

    damage.

    Search for the cause -- see what was different.

    Develop a longer term remedy.

    source: Brian Joiner, Fourth Generation Management, pp. 138-139.

    34

    In a common cause

    situation, there is no such

    thing as THE cause.

    Brian Joiner

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    Improving a Stable Process

    Stratify -- sort into groups or categories; look for

    patterns. (e.g., type of job, day of week, time, weather,

    region, employee, product, etc.)

    Experiment -- make planned changes and learn from

    the effects. (e.g., need to be able to assess and learn

    from the results -- use PDCA .) Disaggregate -- divide the process into component

    pieces and manage the pieces. (e.g., making the

    elements of a process visible through measurements

    and data.)

    source: Brian Joiner, Fourth Generation Management, pp. 140-146.

    36

    Take this example: In finance we set a budget. The actual expenditure, month by

    month, varies - we bought enough stationery for three months, and thats going to be

    a miniblip in the figures. Now, the statistician goes a step further and says, How do

    you know whether its a miniblip or theres a real change here? The statistician says,

    Ill draw you a pair of lines here. These lines are such that 95% of the time, youre

    going to get variation between them.

    Now suppose something happens thats clearly outside the lines. The odds are

    somethings amok. Ordinarily this is the result of something local, because the

    system is such that it operates in control. So supervision converges on the scene to

    restore the status quo.

    Notice the distinction between whats chronic [common cause] and whats sporadic

    [special cause]. Sporadic events we handle by the control mechanism. Ordinarily

    sporadic problems are delegable because the origin and remedy are local. Changing

    something chronic requires creativity, because the purpose is to get rid of the status

    quo - to get rid of waste. Dealing with chronic requires structured change, which has

    to originate pretty much at the top.

    A Conversation with Joseph Juran

    Source: A Conversation with Joseph Juran, Thomas Stewart, Fortune, January 11, 1999, p. 168-170.