LEAN METRICSHOW TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

Phil LedgerwoodPowerPoint is Terrible and I’m Sorry

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Phil LedgerwoodApplication Developer

Netchemia, LLCwww.Netchemia.com

Twitter: @pledgerwoodLinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/philledgerwood

The Estimation Process

Let’s Play a Game

How long does it take you to go to the store to buy bananas? Traffic? Accident? Johnson County moms

talking in aisle? Person in front of you

pays with check and has no id?

Yes, we have no bananas?

Your Estimates Suck Because… They are based on your view of your own

productivity. They assume all unknowns take zero

time. You have never written that software

before.

People are terrible estimators.

Stopping the Foolishness

Here Come Metrics!

Metrics are Awesome Because… They are based on your actual productivity. They factor in unknowns, divergent sizes, and

when Steve goes on vacation, but he didn’t tell anyone he was going on vacation until like two days before he did, and he’s gone for two weeks and it’s like, oh great, thanks a lot, Steve.

You can identify impediments visually.

They are eerily accurate because Math.

Estimates vs. Metrics

Estimates Based on guessing Deviate over long

timespans False sense of

security Can easily be gamed Take a long time to

generate Up for debate Pretty much useless

Metrics Based on actuals Become more

accurate over long timespans

Cold, hard reality Can’t be gamed Take almost no time

to generate Not up for debate Ignore at your peril

Scatterplot Diagram

The Control Chart

Lead Time

Record the date something enters your workflow and the date something leaves it.

This amount of time is called “Lead Time”

End points need some agreed definition When an item is ready for work? When you start work on an item? When an item is ready for release? When an item is actually deployed?

Typical Lead Time: Ready for Work >> Deployed

Control Chart Data

Dates (or day # of project) along the X axis

Number of days along Y axis Lead times are plotted on chart as items

are completed Median Lead Time Standard Deviations Percentages of Lead Time values (ex.

“75% of our lead times are 10 days or less”)

What Can This Tell Us?

How fast we’re delivering

The likelihood of an item taking a certain amount of time

Predictability When events occur

that screw everything up

Trends in velocity

Hey Let’s See One

CFD (But you could probably figure that out)

Cumulative Flow Diagram

Value Stream

How things get from “idea” to “delivered” For developers, it usually looks something like

this: Analysis (Acceptance Criteria) Design (Automated Tests) Code Test Deploy

“To Do,” “Doing,” and “Done” is ok for chore lists, but not so good for organization workflow management

Cumulative Flow Data

Dates (or day # of project) along the X axis

Number of work items along Y axis Plot stacked series of # of items in each

“value stream state” from day to day

What Can This Tell Us?

Horizontal distance: Lead Time Vertical distance: Work in Progress (WIP) Slope of Top Line: Average arrival rate Slope of Bottom Line: Average

completion rate

LOL WUT?

Where are our bottlenecks? Where are things flowing smoothly? What is our predictability? Do we have too much WIP? Are we

starting more than we’re finishing?

And I Care About This Why?

“Improvement comes by managing flow, not trying to get faster.” –Phil Ledgerwood, Just Now, 2013

Improve the flow, and the speed will come.

How do you improve flow? Limit WIP Give love to the area that needs it most Look at what is skewing the lines and

respond

Hey Let’s See One

What Metrics Don’t Tell You

Metrics Tell You What, But Not Why

Charts and numbers are a catalyst for conversation, not a substitute for it

You cannot manage “by the numbers” Data is not a substitute for cultural

analysis, critical thinking, people’s stories, or just being in the trenches.

Data can show you your trends and provide fodder for discussions, but productivity and workflow is ultimately a people issue.

Appendix A: The Retrospective Are you tired of retrospectives being free

form whine sessions? I am also tired of it. Your whining, I mean.

The metrics represent your current state. Ask the team what a better state would

look like. Ask the team for ideas on moving closer

to that state. Pick one, try it, and see if the metrics

change.

I’m Phil

Phil Ledgerwood I work at Netchemia Blog: http://thecuttingledge.com/ Twitter (rare): @pledgerwood LinkedIn (often):

http://www.linkedin.com/in/philledgerwood

Ask me for a business card or something, because, man, I’ve got a ton of ‘em.