Casper Wilstrup!Partner, Bestbrains A/S

Learn to!Start Lean

Bestbrains!9. april 2014

Who am I?

Where and with what do I work?

Why am I here today?

Developers Source Control

Check in

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

Check in Trigger

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

Check in Trigger

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

System tests

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

System tests

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

System tests

Limited deployment

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Trigger

Trigger

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

System tests

Limited deployment

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Trigger

Trigger

Developers Source Control

Build and unit test

System tests

Limited deployment

Full deployment

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Check in Trigger

Trigger

Trigger

Check in Trigger

Trigger

Trigger

Trigger

“Build — Measure — Learn”

Build

Build

Measure

Build

MeasureLearn

Build

MeasureLearn

“Actionable Metrics”

Time

Visits per day

!

Vanity Metric!

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1st batch 2nd batch 3rd batch

AcquisitionActivationRetentionRevenueReferral

Build

MeasureLearn

“Minimum Viable Product”

Minimum Viable

Minimum Viable

Minimum Viable

Value Hypothesis

How do we make money!

!Alt fra den stund uenighed først og splid havde rejst sig mellem den ædling Achilleus og

mændenes drot Agamemnon. Hvo iblandt guderne hidsed dem op til strid og til kivsmål? Leto's

og Zeus's søn, den sølvbuevæbnede Apollon. For Agamemnon på smædelig vis havde hånet hans bønpræst

$$

Growth HypothesisHow do we get

customers?!!

Vreden, gudinde, besyng, som grep Peleiden Achilleus rædsomt og kvaler I!

tusinde tal achaierne voldte. Helt mangfoldige heltes behjertrede sjæle den skikked ned til

Hades' hjem, og for hunde til rov, som for alskens fugle den gav deres lig. Fuldbragt blev Zeus's

beslutning.

“Pivot or Persevere”

30

31

32

Goal

Actual development

Time

Pivot

Pause

“Lessons Learned”

35

My main objective with Lean Canvas was making it as actionable as possible while staying entrepreneur-focused

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

1 23 2

4

5

67

2

8

9

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other posessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

Revenue and Cost

Average bounty: !! ! ! ! ! 200 kr! Our commission: ! ! ! ! ! 12%! Orders per month after 2 years: ! ! 20000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q40

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

OmkostningerIndtægt

Accumulated

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q40

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

OmkostningerIndtægt (akk)

Average bounty: !! ! ! ! ! 200 kr! Our commission: ! ! ! ! ! 12%! Orders per month after 2 years: ! ! 20000

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

The “Problem - Customer” Interview

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Problem interview !Welcome and thanks for your time !We’re working on a service where users can order pictures or videos from any location !Let me stress that it’s not a finished product, but rather some loose product ideas we’re workning on !I’ll start by explaining some of the most important problems we’re trying to solve. Then I’d like to hear if you experience some of these problems, and how you handle them today.

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

But to start with, I’d like to ask you some questions about yourself. !- Age - Sex - IT experience - Smartphone - Social media - Use of images - Owns house, summer house or similar - Boat or similar - Travel habits

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Tell a story !Last week we had another one of these storms. I have a summer house in Western Jutland, and after the storm I was very worried about the house. !It was more than a week before I was able to go there, and that got me thinking … !And then I have this hobby with ancient Mesopotamia (The Louvre Visit)

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Make the customer talk !- Has he experienced similar situations? - What did he do about it? - How important was it really?. !Notice body language Don’t ask leading questions

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Ask for commitment !As I told you, we don't have a finished product, but we’re working on it. !- Could we arrange a new appointment, where I can show you a prototype? - Do you know anyone else I can talk to? - Can I send you project newsletters in the future? - Would you like to sign up for a beta? - And pay for it?

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Document observations. !In a Google spreadsheet or similar.

Welcome!2 min – set the stage

Demography!2 min – verify the segment

Problem kontext!2 min – describe the problem

Test the problem!20 min – listen to customer

Wrap up!2 min – ask for commitment

Write down results!5 min – document right away

Write down results!5 min – document right away

What we found

”I ask my neighbour to go look”!- Else, summer house owner, 44 years

”Then everyone will know I’m on vacation!”!- Karen, house owner, 61 years

”Neat, but not something I’d pay for”!- Jesper, student, 26 years

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions

● Tourists preparing their vacation

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● Journalists looking for “eyes on the ground”

● Others in ad hoc need

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Viral?

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● Journalists looking for “eyes on the ground”

● Others in ad hoc need

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

PROBLEM SOLUTION

KEY METRICS

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

CHANNELS

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS

It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world !Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look

App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones

Customers: The established media !Agents: Educational organisations for photographers, journalists

● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising

Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month

● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations

● Journalists looking for “eyes on the ground”

● Others in ad hoc need

Order live images of anything A dream team :-)

Specify Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to

prodUser!

Stories

Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to

prodUser!

Stories Specify Forecast

Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to

prodUser!

Stories SpecifyValidate ForecastForecast

Estimate

Develop Deploy to test Verify

Deploy to prod

User!Stories

Specify Validate ForecastForecastFeatures

BacklogBacklogBacklog

PROBLEM

1 22

SOLUTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7REVENUE STREAMS

6

PROBLEM

1 22

SOLUTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7REVENUE STREAMS

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

SOLUTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7REVENUE STREAMS

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

SOLUTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7REVENUE STREAMS

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

SOLUTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7REVENUE STREAMS

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7REVENUE STREAMS

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

COST STRUCTURE

7EFFECT ON REVENUE

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

KEY METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

EFFECT ON COST

7EFFECT ON REVENUE

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

EFFECT ON METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

CHANNELS

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

EFFECT ON COST

7EFFECT ON REVENUE

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

EFFECT ON METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

9

DEVELOPER ESTIMATE

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

EFFECT ON COST

7EFFECT ON REVENUE

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1 22

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

EFFECT ON METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3DEVELOPER ESTIMATE

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

EFFECT ON COST

7EFFECT ON REVENUE

6

PROBLEM OR NEED

1

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

EFFECT ON METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

DEVELOPER ESTIMATE

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

EFFECT ON COST

7

EFFECT ON REVENUE

6

EFFECT ON COST

PROBLEM OR NEED

1

FEATURE DESCRIPTION

4

EFFECT ON METRICS

8

KEY BENEFIT

3

DEVELOPER ESTIMATE

5

AFFECTED USERS

2

EFFECT ON REVENUE

7 6

EFFECT ON COST

PROBLEM OR NEED FEATURE DESCRIPTION

EFFECT ON METRICS

KEY BENEFIT

DEVELOPER ESTIMATE

AFFECTED USERS

EFFECT ON REVENUE

Describe

Forecast

FEATURE NAME

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1. kvartal

BesøgRegisteringOpret opgaveOpgave udførtVender tilbageDeler tjenesten

EFFECT ON COST

PROBLEM OR NEED FEATURE DESCRIPTION

EFFECT ON METRICS

KEY BENEFIT

DEVELOPER ESTIMATE

AFFECTED USERS

EFFECT ON REVENUE

Describe

Forecast

Our frontpage and user interface is English only

All users with another native language (73%)

Users - especially new ones - understand our app better

Auto detect country using geo ip, …

8 FP+5% on registration +2% on create order + 1% on share app

Calculate, calculate … +10.000,- / month

None

FEATURE NAME Localisation

USER STORY!!When I visit the start page, the app should auto-detect my location (country)

USER STORY!!Based on my country, the app should suggest a default language. Initially: English. German, Spanish, French

USER STORY!!Translate start page and app to German

USER STORY!!Translate start page and app to Spanish

USER STORY!!Translate start page and app to French

USER STORY!!Let the user override the default language

USER STORY!!Save selected language in user preferences

USER STORY!!When I visit the start page, the app should auto-detect my location (country)

USER STORY!!Based on my country, the app should suggest a default language. Initially: English. German, Spanish, French

USER STORY!!Translate start page and app to German

USER STORY!!Translate start page and app to Spanish

USER STORY!!Translate start page and app to French

USER STORY!!Let the user override the default language

USER STORY!!Save selected language in user preferences

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1. kvartal

VisitRegistrationOrder createdOrder executedReturning userShare service

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1. kvartal 2. kvartal

VisitRegisteringOrder createdOrder executedReturning userShare service

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1. kvartal 2. kvartal 3. kvartal

VisitRegistrationOrder createdOrder executedReturning userShare service

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1. kvartal 2. kvartal 3. kvartal 4. kvartal

VisitRegistrationOrder createdOrder executedReturning userShare service

α = 2(1 - Φ(n))

Statistical Significance?

?