learning and research needs survey

Learning and Research Needs SurveyMacroeconomic and Monetary Policy

Management (MMPM

Meeting of SEACEN Directors of Research and Training

Alotau, Papua New GuineaAugust 19, 2016

1

Brief explanation

• Potential courses included in the evaluation : 16• 16 Respondents• The next slide describes the results pertaining to courses• Slide 4 interprets the results by identifying what appears to be

priority courses and what are potential additional courses• From slide 5 onwards, the results related to the preferred

modules within each course are presented

2

Survey results for each of the 16 potential coursesPlease indicate the priority this course should take in SEACEN’s course offering during 2017

50.0

% 62.5

%

43.8

% 62.5

%

56.3

%

50.0

%

43.8

%

43.8

%

25.0

% 43.8

%

50.0

%

56.3

%

50.0

%

25.0

%

56.3

% 68.8

%

31.3

%

37.5

%

50.0

% 31.3

%

31.3

%

37.5

%

43.8

%

43.8

%

62.5

% 43.8

%

22.2

%

37.5

%

31.3

%

56.3

%

43.8

%

25.0

%18.8

% 6.3%

6.3%

12.5

%

12.5

%

6.3% 12

.5%

12.5

%

6.3%

16.7

% 12.5

%

6.3%

6.3%6.3% 6.3% 11.1% 6.3% 6.3% 12.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

(1) F

unda

men

tal o

f reg

ress

ion

anal

ysis

and

fore

cast

ing

(2) I

nter

med

iate

cou

rse

onm

odel

ling

and

fore

cast

ing

tech

niqu

e

(3) A

dvan

ced

topi

cs in

mod

ellin

g an

dfo

reca

stin

g te

chni

ques

(4) T

he a

naly

tics o

f Mac

roec

onom

ican

d M

onet

ary

Polic

y M

anag

emen

t

(1) M

onet

ary

polic

y tr

ansm

issi

on

(2) M

onet

ary

polic

y st

rate

gies

(3) M

onet

ary

Ope

ratio

ns

(1) I

ntro

duct

ory

cour

se o

n ex

trac

ting

info

rmat

ion

from

fina

ncia

l mar

kets

…

(2) A

dvan

ced

Cour

se o

n ex

trac

ting

info

rmat

ion

from

fina

ncia

l mar

kets

(3) F

inan

cial

mar

ket d

evel

opm

ent

(1) B

alan

ce o

f Pay

men

ts a

nd II

PM

easu

rem

ent

(2) E

xter

nal S

ecto

r Ana

lysi

s

(1) F

ound

atio

n of

mac

roec

onom

icdi

agno

stic

s

(1) M

odel

ling

the

inte

ract

ion

ofm

onet

ary-

, fin

anci

al-,

and

real

…

(2) F

inan

cial

cyc

les a

nd c

rises

(Joi

ntw

ith F

SS)

(3) M

acro

-pru

dent

ial p

olic

y (J

oint

with

FSS

)

Econometrics Modelling & Forecasting

MP Management Financial Markets External SectorMacro-economic Diagnostics

Macro-Prudential Linkages

3

Interpretation of the results: = priority courses, = potential additions

Econometrics Modelling & Forecasting

MP Management Financial Markets External SectorMacro-economic Diagnostics

Macro-Prudential Linkages

4

Most important modulesEconometrics Modelling & Forecasting

• Fundamental of regression analysis and forecasting

• Intermediate course on modelling and forecasting technique

• Advanced topics in modelling and forecasting techniques

5

The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?

62.50%

56.25%

50.00%

37.50%

43.75%

37.50%

37.50%

50.00%

37.50%

50.00%

6.25%

25.00%

6.25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curvemodels of inflation

Estimating output gaps

Seasonality, interpolation, stationarity andother data issues

Review of OLS methodology

Programming in EViews

Fundamental of regression analysis and forecasting

6

62.50%

75.00%

62.50%

43.75%

56.25%

43.75%

37.50%

25.00%

37.50%

50.00%

37.50%

31.25%

6.25%

6.25%

25.00%

0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

GMM Methodology

VAR, BVAR, FAVAR analysis

Modelling and forecasting volatility: ARCH,GARCH and extensions

Network modelling

State-space modelling and applications usingthe Kalman filter

Introduction to programming in Matlab

Intermediate course on modelling and forecasting technique

7


68.75%

62.50%

43.75%

62.50%

43.75%

31.25%

37.50%

50.00%

31.25%

43.75%

6.25%

6.25%

12.50%

0.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

DSGE modelling

Dynamic factor analysis

Network modelling

Advanced now-casting methods

Advanced programming in Matlab

Advanced topics in modelling and forecasting techniques

8

The most important modules:

If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?

Most important modulesMP Management

• The analytics of Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Management

• Monetary policy transmission

• Monetary policy strategies - Monetary Operations

9



81.25%

75.00%

62.50%

37.50%

68.75%

56.25%

50.00%

50.00%

75.00%

18.75%

25.00%

25.00%

62.50%

31.25%

37.50%

50.00%

37.50%

25.00%

12.50%

6.25%

12.50%

0.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Monetary policy transmission mechanisms

Assessing the stance of monetary policy

Exchange rate measurement

Banking and currency crises: facts and theories

Early warning indicators

Monetary operations and liquidity management

Estimating output gaps

Introduction to VAR analysis

Case study on the implementation of…

The analytics of Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Management

10



56.25%

62.50%

56.25%

62.50%

43.75%

31.25%

37.50%

31.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

PASS-THROUGH OF SHORT-TERM POLICY RATES TO LONGER-TERM MARKET RATES

CHANNELS OF MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY OF AGGREGATE DEMAND

ROLE OF MONETARY AND CREDIT AGGREGATES

Monetary Policy Transmission

11


50.00%

50.00%

37.50%

37.50%

50.00%

56.25%

12.50%

6.25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inflation targeting and other approaches

Assessing the needs for interventions in theforeign exchange market: currency

volatility, currency misalignment, surgesand retrenchment of capital flows

Sterilization policies

Monetary Policy Strategies

12


43.75%

50.00%

31.25%

50.00%

43.75%

37.50%

62.50%

43.75%

12.50%

12.50%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Liquidity forecasting

Strategies for policy interest ratemanagement

Reserve requirements

Monetary policy and debtmanagement

Monetary Policy Operations

13

Most Important ModulesFinancial Markets

• Introductory course on extracting information from financial markets for monetary policy management

• Advanced Course on extracting information from financial markets

• Financial market development

14


50.00%

37.50%

50.00%

31.25%

31.25%

50.00%

62.50%

50.00%

68.75%

56.25% 12.50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Basic analysis of financial markets andfinancial instruments

Building yield curves

Interpreting yield curves for monetarypolicy

Gathering and interpreting marketintelligence

Value-at-risk concept andmeasurement

Introductory course on extracting information from financial markets for monetary policy management

15


43.75%

43.75%

18.75%

31.25%

37.50%

43.75%

62.50%

56.25%

18.75%

12.50%

18.75%

12.50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Dynamic yield curve modelling, Affinemodels

Volatility modelling, both GARCH andstochastic volatility

Density forecasting, basic optionimplied density forecasting

Application of option impliedforecasts (foreign exchange, oil…

Advanced Course on extracting information from financial markets

16


41.18%

43.75%

37.50%

25.00%

43.75%

41.18%

43.75%

56.25%

62.50%

37.50%

11.76%

12.50%

6.25%

12.50%

18.75%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Developing equity and bond markets

Developing foreign exchange market

Regional and global integration of financialmarkets

Sequencing issues

Financial inclusion

Financial market development

17

Most Important ModulesExternal Sector

• Balance of Payments and IIP Measurement

• External Sector Analysis

18


43.75%

50.00%

43.75%

43.75%

31.25%

31.25%

37.50%

37.50%

37.50%

31.25%

50.00%

43.75%

37.50%

43.75%

43.75%

56.25%

56.25%

43.75%

43.75%

43.75%

50.00%

31.25%

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

18.75%

18.75%

18.75%

18.75%

18.75%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Integrated International AccountsExternal Sector Statistics

Direct InvestmentPortfolio Investment

Reserve Asset Composition and…International Investment Position

Trade in GoodsTrade in Services

Income and Capital TransfersRemittances

External Debt Statistics

Balance of Payments and IIP Measurement

19


37.50%

50.00%

56.25%

56.25%

56.25%

56.25%

37.50%

37.50%

37.50%

37.50%

6.25%

12.50%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Exchange Rate Systems

Forecasting the Balance of Payments

Exchange Rate Assessment

External Debt Sustainability

Managing International Capital Flows

External Sector Analysis

20

The Most Important ModulesMacroeconomic Diagnostics

• Foundation of macroeconomic diagnostics

21


68.75%

50.00%

56.25%

56.25%

62.50%

56.25%

75.00%

62.50%

56.25%

25.00%

43.75%

37.50%

37.50%

31.25%

37.50%

18.75%

31.25%

37.50%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

6.25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Assessing the Financial Sector

Bank Stress Testing

Domestic Demand

Supply and Productivity

Analysing Fiscal Policy and Assessing…

Analysing Inflation

Analysing Monetary Policy

Assessing the External Position

Assessing Competitiveness and the…

Foundation of macroeconomic diagnostics

22

The Most Important ModulesMacro-Prudential Linkages

• Modelling the interaction of monetary-, financial-, and real sectors in DSGE-type models (Advanced Course)

• Financial cycles and crises (Joint with FSS)

• Macro-prudential policy (Joint with FSS)

23


37.50%

37.50%

50.00%

50.00%

12.50%

12.50%

0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%

Approaches in modelling thefinancial sector : DSGE Models

Solution methods

Modelling the interaction of monetary-, financial-, and real sectors in DSGE-type models (Advanced Course)

24


75.00%

56.25%

75.00%

25.00%

43.75%

25.00%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Early warning indicators

Financial cycles: facts, models, andpolicy implications

Macro-prudential policy responses

Financial cycles and crises (Joint with FSS)

25


56.25%

75.00%

56.25%

75.00%

43.75%

25.00%

37.50%

25.00%

6.25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Financial stability mandate of centralbanks/regulators

Monetary policy vs. Macroprudentialpolicies to safeguard financial stability.

Micro- vs. macro-prudential policies

Implementing macro-prudential policies:challenges and potential pitfalls

Macro-prudential policy (Joint with FSS)

26

learning and research needs survey

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