learning from programmatic failures paul collopy [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
Learning from Programmatic Failures
What is a Programmatic Failure?
Should we be concerned?
What can we do?
What is a Programmatic Failure?
Major Cost Overrun
A Year or More Delay in Schedule
Cancellation Due to Program or Performance
What is a Programmatic Failure?
Major Cost Overrun
A Year or More Delay in Schedule
Cancellation Due to Program or Performance
90% of Current NASA Programs80% of Current DoD Programs
2 of 2 Current NASA Programs80% of Current DoD Programs
Few NASA Programs30% of DoD Programs
Should We Be Concerned?
DoD Programmatic Failures Cost ~ $150 million per day
On the order of the cost of the Iraq or the Afghanistan War
Pentagon estimates a $600 Billion LCC overrun for F-35
Space Station cost 6 times the original estimate, excluding Shuttle Flight costs
Space Shuttle cost 3.5 times the original budget
$200 billion could have funded a manned mission to Mars
Overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope cost JPL its Mars Exploration program
$200 B total overrun
Should We Be Concerned?
DoD Programmatic Failures Cost ~ $150 million per day
On the order of the cost of the Iraq or the Afghanistan War
Pentagon estimates a $600 Billion LCC overrun for F-35
Space Station cost 6 times the original estimate, excluding Shuttle Flight costs
Space Shuttle cost 3.5 times the original budget
$200 billion could have funded a manned mission to Mars
Overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope cost JPL its Mars Exploration program
$200 B total overrun
We cannot manage complex design programs
What Can We Do?
Our systems engineering process has failed us
Biased cost estimates indicate an endogenous cost growth process
Although we focus our process and research on conceptual and preliminary design,
We need to fix the SE process for Detailed Design
Everything Is Fine at PDR
0 %
20 %
80 %
100 %
Concept Design
Detailed Design
Production Use and Dispose
Cost Committed
Cost Incurred
After illustration on the website of the Engineering Design Centre and Newcastle University
Prelim Design
Systems Engineering during Detailed Design
Systems Engineering is the process that guides, coordinates, and facilitates Design Engineering
Guidance for Complex Systems
Coordination for Optimal Design
Facilitation – stay out of the way!
Guidance – Preferences
Coordination – Consistent Objective Functions
Facilitation – Minimal restrictions, constraints, requirements
Research on SE During Detailed Design
The Renaissance in Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering Research has never been more critical to our nation’s future
We need radical (getting to the root cause and fixing it) solutions to the most pressing problems
This will necessitate re-thinking our current research agendae