learning to live together on a small planet

E l e m e n t s f o r a doss ie r

Learning about interdependence

Lester R. Brown

Learn ing to l ive t o g e t h e r on a smal l p l a n e t

International understanding, once a humanitarian virtue, is now a dramatic, urgent necessity: the interdependence of the different regions and countries of the world and the strain on limited resources are such that without understanding leading to co-operation there will be disaster. The following article by Lester Brown, head of the Worldwatch Institute, shouM serve to remind our readers that unless we all become educated to the grave problems facing humanity, the technical skills and general knowledge imparted by our school and university systems may well become superfluous. [Ed.]

Teachers in France use a riddle to teach school- children exponential growth. A lily pond, so the riddle goes, contains a single leaf. Each day the number of leaves doublesmtwo leaves the second day, four the third, eight the fourth, and so on. ' I f the pond is full on the thirtieth day', the teacher asks, 'at what point is it half full?' Answer: 'On the twenty-ninth day.'

An understanding of the arithmetic of growth is indispensable in today's growth-oriented so-

Lester Brown (United States of America). President of the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington, D.G.-based non-profit research organization created to analyse and to focus attention on global problems. Author of In the Human Interest and The Twenty Ninth Day: Ac- commodating Human Needs and Numbers to the Earth's Resources.

cieties. Both human numbers and the level of economic wealth are increasing rapidly. A 2 per cent annual rate of population growth or a 4 per cent rate of economic growth might not seem substantial at first glance. Over a century, however, the former will lead to a sevenfold increase and the latter to a fiftyfoldl Such is the arithmetic of exponential growth.

In fact, the global lily pond in which 4,ooo million of us live may already be at least half full. Within the next generation, it could fill up entirely. Occasional clusters of leaves are already crowding against the edge, signalling the day when the pond will be completely filled. The great risk is that we will miss or misread the signals and fail to adjust our life- styles and reproductive habits in the time available.

The range of constraints that have begun to affect global society in the last decade is for- midable. Newspaper headlines have been an- nouncing a host of problems that only a decade ago would have been unimaginable. Prices of oil have sky-rocketed, bringing the era of cheap energy to a close. Other important non-renewable materials have become increasingly scarce and costly as well, though their price rises are un- likely to match the recent fivefold increase in petroleum prices.

Just as worrisome has been the emergence of serious stresses on the earth's renewable re = sources, the biological systems that provide all

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Prospects, Vol. IX, No. 2, x979

Lester R. Brown

our food and virtually all the raw materials for industry. Since these systems can support only a limited yield or offtake indefinitely, excessive demands can be satisfied only by consuming the biological stocks themselves. Such a situation obviously cannot long continue. Massive defor- estation in much of the Third World, the recent failure of the world's fishermen to expand their catch, and the continuing world-wide loss of crop land are all providing ample cause for concern.

Stress on biological systems

The world's fisheries are a well-documented case of overuse and declining productivity. Throughoust most of human history there were more fish in the oceans than we could ever hope to catch. 1 Between 195 ~ and i97 o, the world catch increased rapidly, far outstripping population growth and sharply boosting fish consumption. But in 197 ~ the trend was ab- ruptly and unexpectedly interrupted, cloud- ing the prospects for an ever-bigger catch. Meanwhile, world population has continued to grow, leading to an I I per cent decline in the per-capita catch. As human numbers moved toward 4,ooo million, the global appetite for table fish such as salmon, tuna, and cod approached and, in some cases, exceeded the sustainable yield of fisheries. Overfishing has led to shrinking stocks, declining catches and soaring prices.

Many of the world's forests are also showing signs of overharvesting. In poor countries, in particular, where firewood is used for cooking, villagers are decimating local forests. With the average villager requiring a tonne or more of firewood each year, expanding village popu- lations are raising firewood demands so fast that the regenerative capacities of many forests are being surpassed. Under the population on- slaught, forests are receding farther and farther from the villages until entire regions are eventually deforested. As a result, firewood prices have

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soared, fuelling the fires of inflation in countless Third World countries. In some deforested communities in Africa, what goes under the pot may cost more than what goes inside it.

Although the daily demand for firewood is the largest claimant on the world's forests, the demand for lumber is also rising rapidly. This continued pressure, combined with the need to replace old houses, is raising total claims on many remaining forests far beyond the level that can be sustained without improved management and a massive increase in tree-planting. As with firewood, these pressures translate into rising costs. In the United States, prices for lumber have nearly tripled since 1969. As this happens, the cost of housing goes up every- where. The average cost of a new house in the United States has now reached $55,0o0, up from less than $3o,ooo scarcely a decade ago. ~ The single-family home--which since frontier days has been regarded as part of the American birthright--is becoming increasingly unattain- able for millions of middle-income families.

Another clear case of excessive demand being placed on a biological system is that of the world's crop lands. Cities and deserts are en- croaching on crop land on virtually every continent. In some countries, such as the United States, the crop land being lost exceeds the new land being brought under the plough. In Science, David Pimentel reports that 'each year more than I million hectares of arable cropland are lost to highways, urbanization, and other special uses'. This loss is only 'partially offset by the addition (primarily through irri- gation and drainage projects) of 5o,ooo hectares of newly developed cropland per year'. ~

In addition to the absolute loss of crop land through abandonment or conversion to other uses, erosion is leading to a thinning of the top-soil layer in many countries and thus to a decline in the natural fertility of soils. Soil erosion is not new, but in vast areas the top-soil now being lost through erosion exceeds that being formed by nature.

Learning to live together on a small planet

Anyone who has travelled across Africa, up and down the Indian sub-continent, or around Latin America sees first hand the consequences of extending cultivation onto land that should either be left in its natural state or cultivated only with special techniques. One need not be a trained agronomist or a prophet to see the grim future that continued abuse of the earth's soil resources entails.

The energy transit ion

In the case of oil, as with renewable resources, there has been relatively little attention paid to the causes underlying the sudden jump in prices. In fact, the decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise its prices was little more than a triggering event that brought the long-term trends into focus. The strength to make its decision stick derived largely from the lack of economically competitive substitutes.

In the United States, oil production has been falling since 197o, reversing a century- long trend. This has occurred despite a rapid rise in oil exploration in the continental United States as well as the oil 'bonanza' of the Alaskan North Slope. The decline in production already under way in the United States will be followed by downturns in other oil-producing countries. The Soviet Union may lose its exportable sur- plus of oil within a matter of years, leav- ing Eastern Europe heavily dependent on the Middle East and other sources of oil imports. As output begins to fall in some of the older oil fields, the pressures on new fields will mount. As this process continues, a snowball effect will take hold and a market psychology of scarcity will come into force. I f energy alternatives are not available soon at comparably cheap prices, the I99OS may witness not on!y the end of the petroleum era, but also the end of the profligate economic system it has spawned.

The sobering reality of oil depletion is only

beginning to permeate public consciousness. Until recently, technology held out two prom- ising alternatives: the extraction of oil from the vast reserves of shale and tar sands, and the development of cheap nuclear power. Many be- lieved that the oil that is tightly locked in oil shale or heavy tar sands could be readily extracted. But discouraging set-backs have marred the I97OS. Efforts to develop the vast shale deposits in Colorado and Wyoming have been abandoned by many private companies because of the cost. Similarly, some of the firms that hoped to 'mine' the Althabascan tar sands, once touted as containing more petroleum than the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, are shelving the notion. Business Week has described shale-oil as 'a researcher's dream and an economist's nightmare'. 4

Events of the I97OS have also altered the outlook for nuclear power. An international survey in early 1977 reported that the time- tables for nuclear power 'are in shambles'. 5 The United States Government has dramatically lowered its projections of nuclear-power capacity for the year 2ooo? Similar reductions in the projections are occurring at the global level. In 197 o, the International Atomic Energy Agency projected that some 61o,ooo megawatts would be on line by 1985 in the non-communist countries. A recent forecast by the Atomic In- dustrial Forum, an industry trade group, projects only 375,00o megawatts by 1985 for the entire worldY Continuing set-backs in the industry suggest that even these projections are on the high side.

At least six obstacles or problems beset nuclear power: the risk of a reactor melt-down or other accident; the danger of nuclear weapons spreading; into the hands of terrorists; the lack of a satisfactory technique for disposing of nuclear waste; the possibility that nuclear weapons will spread; the long-term inadequacy of fissile fuel supplies; and, perhaps most im- portantly cost, including the cost of waste disposal and of decommissioning worn-out plants.

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The difficulty in dealing effectively with any one of these obstacles, much less with all of them collectively, raises serious questions about whether nuclear power will ever fulfil the mission its proponents set for it.

As recently as April 1977, President Carter, in outlining to Congress his long-term energy plan, stated that coal would be a corner-stone of the United States energy programme. But a few months later the National Academy of Sciences released a study on energy and climate that pointed out that continued heavy burning of coal would almost certainly raise carbon dioxide levels, leading to a warming of the earth. They projected a warming of 6~ (IIOF) within two centuries. 8 Even a 5oC warming of the oceans would raise the sea level through simple expansion alone by a metre. If, as a more recent article in Nature projects, this warming led to a partial breakup of the Antarctic ice- cap, the ocean levels would rise much farther, inundating low-lying coastal areas and cities throughout the world. 9

Both coal and nuclear energy have proved unexpectedly costly to develop, both in terms of direct monetary outlays and indircct safety and environmental costs. Given these prospects, there is little doubt that the transition to the post-pctrolcum era will be difficult. Societies wiU have to do more to conserve cncrgy in thc future than they have in the recent past. In addition, there is no longer any realistical alterna- tive to beginning a crash programme to develop rcncwable energy sources--solar energy in its various dircct and indirect forms. These include solar collectors for space and water heating, wind power, methane generators, firewood, energy crops, and schemes to convert urban garbage into usable heat and electricity.

One of the simplest uses of sunlight is to heat water and buildings. Solar collectors used to heat water are highly efficient and in many situations are already economically competitive with traditional energy sources. As the price of oil continues to rise and as mass production of

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solar collectors reduces their cost further, they will find more buyers. As of early 1977, an estimated 2 million solar water-heaters had been sold in Japan. 1~ Solar water-heating units are also being marketed on a significant scale in Israel, Australia and the United States.

One form of biological energy that has tra- ditionally been wasted in industrial societies is waste itself. The organic material that composes a large share of urban garbage is combustible, although it is seldom uniform enough to yield a steady flow of heat. Yet, in cities like St Louis, where a 87o million plant has been constructed to burn the city's garbage along with local coal, waste-disposal problems are being solved as energy for electricity is being created.

Still another form of organic waste that contains a valuable energy component is cow- dung. An estimated 69 million tonnes is used directly as fuel each year in India, much as buffalo chips were burned by the early settlers in the United States Great Plains. 1~ However, key nutrients that could be used as fertilizer are lost in direct burning in open fires. A more efficient approach is to convert the cow-dung and other organic wastes into methane through anaerobic fermentation, which leaves a rich organic residue that can then be used as fertilizer. Small biogas plants employing this process and designed for local use are becoming increasingly popular in several Asian countries: China has an estimated 4.3 million biogas plants in operation. Interest in biogas plants at the family and village levels in India has expanded sharply since the 1973 oil-price rise. 1~

At least one country plans to produce organic materials for conversion into alcohol for use as automobile fuel. Allen Hammond writes in Science that 'The Brazilian Government has launched a bold program to replace much of that country's imported oil with ethyl alcohol produced from sugar cane and other crops'. ~3 The admittedly ambitious goal of producing enough ethanol to supply one-fifth of its gaso- line needs by I98o rests on the Brazilian


Government's proposal to build seventy new alcohol distiUeries and to plant an additional 5oo,ooo hectares to sugar-cane. Brazil's plan to obtain nearly all of its automotive fuel from alcohol by the year 2o0o makes it one of the few countries to have charted a path to the post-petroleum era.

As efforts to reduce dependence on imported oil gain momentum, different countries will look to different substitutes. Countries situated in the higher latitudes are favoured with wind resources; mountainous countries have falling water; tropical countries can produce organic materials for fuel throughout the year, and countries in desert areas have an abundance of sunlight. The exploitation of indigenous energy resources may lead to a new self-reliance and to move security of energy sources than exists today. According to Denis Hayes, 'Brazil's large ethanol program, India's gobar gas plants, and the Middle East's growing fascination with solar electric technologies can all bode well for the future of renewable energy sources. '1~

T h e i n e v i t a b l e a c c o m m o d a t i o n

The question before us is not whether we will accommodate ourselves to the earth's natural systems and resources, but how we will do so. The question is not whether the offtake from oceanic fisheries will be limited. It will be--if not by us, then ultimately by nature. There is no question whether the overcutting of forests will eventually halt. It will--either because we consciously decide to do so or because no forests remain to be cut. There is no question whether we will soon reduce our consumption ofoil. We will. The only question is whether the forthcoming adjustments will be made sensibly, co-operatively, and with foresight, or belatedly and perhaps catastrophically.

The changes involved in deliberately accom- modating ourselves to the earth's natural capacities and resources suggest that a far-reaching

social transformation is in the making. The origins of the change are ecological, but the change itself is social and economic. The processes for achieving it are political.

The changes ahead will paradoxically require both a reduction in the potentially unmanage- able interdependencies among societies and a strengthening of international co-operation in some key fields. A global 'Marshall Plan' to address problems of ecological stress and dim- inishing fossil fuels is neither a realistic option, nor the best available use for limited resources. In the years ahead, nations will increasingly seek local solutions to problems that are global in scale.

This new outlook which has already taken hold in some parts of the world will be an abrupt shift of direction after several decades of massively increased economic interdependence. It is being fostered by the complexity and vul- nerability of the current economic system, which is all too susceptible to natural disasters and political conflicts. It is also being fostered by the realization that many of the changes that will be required are implemented most logicaUy on a small scale at the local level. New methods for increasing food and energy production will likely vary between regions. A fuel-wood plan- tation that is essential in the Republic of Korea may be either impractical or unneeded in Peru. Likewise with aquaculture ponds, biogas plants, intensive vegetable gardens, and even family- planning techniques. No particular set of programmes will be universally applicable, nor do any of them have great economies of scale if implemented in a massive way.

However, even while efforts to reduce the dangerously high levels of food, energy and monetary interdependence among countries are under way, efforts to strengthen international co-operation on other fronts are needed. The spectacular achievements in such fields as health and communications provide solid evidence of the benefits such co-operation can yield. The age-old scourge of smallpox is on the verge of

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being eradicated because the World Health Or- ganization skilfully co-ordinated an international attack on this disease. The creation of Intelsat and of a highly efficient international electronic communications network is the product of close co-operation among countries interested in sharing United States telecommunication technology.

The changes in attitudes, institutions, and life-styles required in our global lily pond amount to nothing less than a social trans, formation. Increased global co-operation and understanding will be essential in this process. Industrial and traditional societies will share the burden of having to acquire new values and discard existing ones. Both on a technical and political level, sharing of information and ideas will be important in fostering and shaping the changes ahead.

The analytical gap

The unavoidable adjustments made necessary by the overtaxing of biological systems and the depletion of oil reserves have received far too little attention. This oversight is due in part to a common tendency by analysts to assess the physical limits of a particular system while completely overlooking the social limits t o growth. Usually even the economic optimum of any productive system is well below the physical maximum. Only rarely does the productivity of a corn field or an oil field closely approach its physical limits. For example, the oil that can be profitably extracted from an oil field may only be 3o per cent of the total. Beyond that the energy required to extract a barrel of oil may exceed the energy content of the oil itself.

While coming to terms with nature, we must also come to terms with ourselves, frankly recognizing our own limitations as we attempt to stabilize our relationship with nature. While it is tempting to couch discussions of growth prospects in physical terms because they are measurable, the more severe constraints are

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invariably human ones--the limits on the human capacity to change, the sIowness and occasional irrationality of political processes, and the glacial pace at which institutions adapt.

In global resource management, social limits can operate long before physical ones come into play. For example, the greatest gains to be realized today from additional fertilizer use exist in the developing countries where fertilizer usage is low. At a time of global food scarcities, available fertilizer should be channelled to those farmers who can use it most productively. But political pressures applied by farmers in fertilizer-exporting countries act to restrict fertilizer exports in times of scarcity and, conse- quently, to keep world food production sub- stantially below what it would otherwise be. Production, in this case, is obstructed by poli- tics, not nature.

Another social limit to resource management, the failure of the users of 'the commons' to organize so as to use resources for their long- term mutual benefit, occurs at all levels of social organization. At the global level, failure to control pollution leads to the deterioration of oceanic life.

Clearly, improved communication among scientists and political leaders in all countries will be an essential element of the process of accommodation. Unfortunately, the I97OS have been marked by a chain of unprecedented analytical failures. During this period of convulsive change, the divergence between theory and reality has widened. Today, economists are no longer able to recommend policies that will satisfactorily cope with both rotation and unemployment. However, failure to anticipate the major shifts and discontinuities of the I97OS is not attributable to any single discipline or any single shortcoming in analysis, but rather to many. Asking the wrong questions; confusing causes with triggering events; and, overspecial- izadon are all involved.

Loss of vision due to overspecialization may be the analyst's chief weakness today. The


central problem associated with specialization is that the important problems facing humanity do not fit within the confines of any individual discipline, much less a subdiscipline. Thus, in what educators have called the 'expert society', more and more problems remain unsolved, and more and more are proving lmmanagcable. Melvin Eggers, president of Syracuse Univer- sity, has said that education is losing touch with the needs of society. When confronting the energy crisis, he notes, 'We have petroleum and mining and nuclear engineers, but precious few energy engineers' who are capable of evaluating and advising on the overall energy situation, x~ Similarly, not too many years ago, the food problem was defined almost entirely in agri- cultural terms. But to even begin to understand what is happening in the world food economy today, an analyst must be an economist, ecol- ogist, agronomist, meteorologist, and political scientist rolled into one.

Moreover, both scientists and the political leaders they advise will need to increase their awareness of the international implications of seemingly national policies. From the burning of fossil fuels to the consumption of meat, one nation's activities have the potential for upsetting the precarious balance on which other nations' life-support systems are balanced. Neither United States Department of Agri- culture economists, nor OPEC oil ministers can afford to ignore the wide-ranging and long- term effects of their decisions.

I n t e r n a t i o n a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g f o r surv iva l

In a sense, the most basic challenge that lies ahead is educational. Many values, attitudes, and assumptions assimilated during an histori- cally unique period of economic and demo- graphic growth wiU have to be jettisoned. New analyses and information will play an important role in the shift toward a sustainable society.

In assessing the role of information, Hazel Henderson notes that 'the rise of new partici- patory citizen movements for consumer and environmental protection, peace, and social justice is grounded in an almost intuitive understanding of the persuasive power of information'. 16

It is clear that in the coming years, perhaps more than at any previous time, the role of schools will be a central one. Unless young people begin to develop an early sense of the adjustments that we will all be facing soon, the move towards realistic solutions will be criti- cally delayed. Student complaints that cur- ricula often lack relevance to the real world are well founded. Daniel Bell recently commented that 'education takes place outside of school, in the influence of media and peer group, while s c h o o l s . . , have become more vocational and specialized'Y As a result, although the symp- toms of the current stresses have received ample play in the press, their underlying causes are not widely understood.

Unfortunately, most of us were educated at a time when resources were more abundant and when there was considerable faith in the capacity of technology to solve problems. Schools prepared us for a rosy future that would contain more of everything. Few problems appeared insurmountable, and they all fit nicely into the traditional set of academic subjects. But yes- terday's studentsmtoday's adults--turned out to be poorly prepared for the sorts of problems that currently confront the world. The result has been a fanatic game of'catch-up' for scientists, economic planners, and ordinary Citizens. In their adult years, many are learning lessons that will almost certainly become a part of tomorrow's school curriculum.

Robert Fleilbroner, for one, sees in the current situation a new role for institutions of higher learning. To his mind, the educational system with its research capacity at the upper echelon and the need to quickly shift priorities are closely linked. He proposes that colleges and universities 'add a new orientation to their

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Lester R. Brown

traditional goals and programmes. I urge that they deliberately set out to become the labora- tories of applied research into the future. I urge that they direct a major portion of their efforts toward research into, training for, and advocacy of programs for social change'. 18 This proposed role would, for example, have these institutions working on such local issues as materials recycling, land-use planning, and public transportation. They would become a source of analysis and information for such public policy-makers as the governor, members of the town council, or even national legislators.

In addition, since necessary changes in attitudes, values, and life-styles are called for quickly, the educational task at hand involves Creschooling' many mature adults. The burden of responsibility for informing people of the need for change will shift from the formal educational system to a nonformal one--es- pecially the communications media.

Important issues such as environmental deterioration, population growth, the changing roles of women, and the threat of nuclear power are given life by print and broadcast journalists. And so it will be with more and more issues. Our awareness, our understanding, and our actions will be influenced more and more by information we acquire from the communications media.

Those working in the communications media thus find themselves carrying an ever heavier responsibility. Although journalists, editors and media executives have not asked for this new responsibility, may not wish to assume it, and indeed may not be prepared for it, they may have little choice in the matter. They are the authorized and licensed purveyors of the information that influences decision-making and shapes our life-styles. This emerging educational role of the media suggests that journalists and editors, like teachers, may need to be better educated in the complex ecological, economic and social issues facing society. The question is what form the education should take and who

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should bear the cost. In many cases the needs of those in the media might be better served by intensive short-term workshops on such subjects as energy, population, or environment than by supplemental education in a more formal academic sense.

A planetary bargain

The new ethic of accommodation has already gained a foothold. In some circles the bicycle is now a symbol of enlightenment, and parents with more than two children are viewed as socially irresponsible. In the future, the social conversation piece may be a thriving vegetable garden or an ingeniously designed solar-heating system. Physical fitness will be more highly regarded then the expanded girth of the suc- cessful business man or senior bureaucrat. In all, society may come to value more highly whatever contributes to human welfare and to eschew material acquisitiveness as such.

The social capacity for such rapid and per- vasive change is untested. It is certain to put great stress on both individuals and institutions. Willis Harman, director of the Center for Study of Social Policy at the Stanford Research Insti- tute in the United States, wonders whether society can ~bring about the transition without shaking itself apart', l~ Political leaders must strike a balance between panic and complacency. Leaders need to be in constant communication with their constituents, always explaining the reasons for change. Change must come, but a loss of confidence in public leaders would be disastrous.

The call for a new international economic order is iustified and overdue, but it is not in itself sutficient. It needs to be pursued as part of a broader effort to create a sustainable, just society. In today's world sustainability has both an ecological and a political dimension. I f the biological foundations and energy supplies of the economic system cannot be secured, then


the system itself is not sustainable. I f gross inequity leads to social upheaval and political turmoil at the national level, as it inevitably must, then the international order will not be a stable one. The transformation called for has three components--reform of the international order, social reform at the national level, and the overall accommodation of human needs and numbers m the earth's resources. All can take place within the framework of what Harlan Cleveland of the Aspen Institute has termed the 'planetary bargain', s~

A planetary bargain should embrace efforts to address the entire range of threats to hu- manky. Falling logically within its compass are such diverse threats as food insecurity, nuclear- weapons proliferation, export embargoes, human rights violations, youth unemployment, oceanic pollution, terrorism, illegal migration, the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and depletion of the ozone layer. Many of these threats can be managed only through international co-operation.

The world stands on the threshold of a basic social transformation. Of that there can be little doubt. Like earlier 'revolutions', this one could raise us to a higher level of humanity. But unlike others, it must be reckoned with in advance. Whether the impending transformation will be orderly or convulsive depends on our foresight and will.

Notes

I. Yearbook of Fishery Statistics, Rome, Food and Agri- culture Organization.

2. 'Housing Prices Pass $5o, ooo', New York Times, 23 October 1978.

3- David Pimentel et al., 'Land Degradation: Effects on Food and Energy Resources', Science, 8 October 1976.

4. 'Will Energy Conservation Throttle Economic Growth?', Business Week, 25 April 1977.

5- 'Nuclear Man at Bay', The Economist, 19 March 1977. 6. Nuclear Energy Pohcy Study Group, Nuclear Power,

Issues and Choices, Cambridge, Mass., Ballinger Pub- lishing Company, 1977.

7. Anthony J. Parisi, CThe Nuclear Slowdown: Concern and Elation', New York Times, 5 February I978.

8. National Academy of Sciences, Energy and Climate, Washington, D.C., 1977.

9. J. H. Mercer, 'West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CO s Green_house Effect: A Threat of Disater', Nantre, 26 January I978.

IO. Denis Hayes, Energy: The Solar Prospect, March 1977 (Worldwatch Paper 1I).

i i . P. D. Henderson, India: The Energy Sector, Washing- ton, D.C., World Bank, 1975.

12. Vaclav Smil, "Energy Solution in China', Environment, October 1977.

13. 'Alcohol: A Brazilian Answer to the Energy Crisis', Science, II February 1977; Allen Hammond of Sr ence, private communication.

14. Denis Hayes, Rays of Hope: The Transition to a Post- Petroleum World, New York, W. W. Norton, z977.

15. Melvin A. Eggers, 'Where Education Is Losing Touch', Business Week, 15 September 1975.

16. Hazel Henderson, ~Information and the New Move- ments for Citizen Participation', Annals of the American Academy, March I974.

17. Daniel Bell, The Coming of Post-lndustrial Society, New York, Basic Books, 1973.

18. Robert L. Heilbroner, 'Second Thoughts on the Human Prospect', Challenge, May-June 1975.

19. Willis W. Harman, 'The Coming Transformation', The Futurist, April I977.

20. Harlan Cleveland, ~Introduction: Toward an Inter- national Poverty Line', in John McHale and Magna Cordell McHale (eds.), Basic Human Needs: A Frame- work for Action, Houston, Center for Integrative Studies, April 1977-

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