lecture 1 the challenge of energy for the 21st century
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy Technology for theFuture
How will energy systems be
developed for the increased demandsand changing requirements?
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The Key Questions about Energy for the
Next Century
How much energy do we need? What is the role of energy on human activity?
How much energy is available?
What is the impact of energy production
and use on the future?
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What resources do we need?
Transportation
Liquid fuels (petroleum)
Agriculture
Natural gas, coal (fertilizers)
Liquid fuels (farm equipment)
Manufacturing
Electricity (coal, nuclear)
Chemical feedstocks (petroleum) Housing
Electricity
Heating/Cooling
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Engineering Issues with Energy
Development
Primary Source of Energy
Fossil Fuels
Nuclear
Renewables
Disposal of Waste Heat Thermal pollution of aquatic environment
Economies of scale
Why are large power plants more efficient than smaller plants? Environmental Impact
Carbon emissions? Air/Water pollution?
Water requirements
Food production
Community/industry integration
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What do we expect for increased
energy consumption?
5http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf
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Energy Use by China is the major
contributor to increased carbon emissions
6http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf
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Electricity Generation
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Coal will be the major source of fuel for electricity for the next
20+ years. Hydro will continue to be the major renewable source.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf
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How do we assess how much
energy we need?
What is the essential energy requirement forthe population?
Can we limit and control the use of energy?
8
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http://hdr.undp.org/en/
Index Measure Minimum value Maximum value Formula
LongevityLife Expectancy
at birth (LE)25yrs 85 yrs
Education
Literacy rate
(LR)0% 100%
Combined gross
enrollment ratio
(CGER)
0% 100%
GDPGDP per capita
(PPP)
100 USD 40,000 USD
HDITotal humandevelopment
index
0.000 1.000
Human Development Index
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10http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf
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Human conditionshave improved as
measured by the
HumanDevelopment Index
HDI Historical Trends
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
GDP per capita (2005 US$)
HDI vs GDP
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Per capita electricity consumption (kWh)
HDI vs Electricity Consumption
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes)
HDI vs CO2 emissions
HDI goes up with
income, but alsowith electricity
consumption and
carbon emissions
Correlating HDI with Human
Activity
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We need energy to provide a
satisfactory standard of living
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Energy Resources and
Sustainability
How much energy is available and
how long will it last?
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Why did coal become the fuel of
choice in the 18th century?
England, France, Germany, and even theUS had deforested much of its land to use
wood for fuel.
Discovery of coal provide a source of
energy to permitted population to grow
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Fast forward to 20th century
Petroleum replaced coal for manyapplications it was easier to recover,
cheaper to transport and made the
automobile possible
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Oil consumption and its future
How much oil is available? How long will it last?
What will be the impact on the future?
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http://www.worldalmanac.com/blog/2008/01/world_oil_reserves_and
_consumption.html
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When will the oil run out? 1930s Domestic reserves
were seen as finite and
US searched elsewhere inthe world
1960s Projection of oilresources and use
indicated 25 years ofresources
2000 Projection of oilresources and use
indicate 25 years ofresources (maybe 50under favorableassumptions)
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Hubbards Peak
History of Oil Production
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Jan-1900 May-1927 Oct-1954 Feb-1982 Jul-2009 Nov-2036
USCrudeProduction(thousand
barrels)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1900 1927 1954 1982 2009 2036
USCrudeReserves(millio
nbarrels)
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History of Oil Production Historical growth
was 25% per yearfrom 1880-1985.
Oil production anduse growth slowed
down in the1980s.
What level ofincreasedconsumption anduse of oil willpersist?
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Are we using petroleum in the most
beneficial manner?
What do we use oil for?
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Technical Conflicts in Fossil Fuel Use
Choice of Fuels Environmental Impact
of Fossil Fuel
recovery Oil spills
Strip mining
Land reclamation
High T for efficiency lower T for NOx
reduction
Cost of clean up offuel versus clean stack
emissions
CO2 emissions
NOx and SOxemissions
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How about other resources?
Coal resources could be expanded do weplan for 100s of years rather than 10s?
Nuclear is available for 100s of years, but
can we handle the waste?
What can we expect from solar, wind, etc.
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Renewables?
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What is the long term impact of
energy production?
Energy production does more that justdeplete a limited resource it alters our
environment.
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Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Historicalemissions
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Historical Emissions
1.6
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1.6
Interim
Goal
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Historicalemissions Flat path
Stabilization
Triangle
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle
~850 ppm
Easier CO2 target
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.
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CO2 Emissions
31http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/graph-showing-each-countrys.html
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ElectricityTransportation
Heating,
other
Allocation of 6.2 GtC/yr 2000 global CO2 emissions
CO2 Emissions by Sector and Fuel
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1.6
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Flat path
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Stabilization Wedges
16 GtC/y
Eight wedges
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.
Historicalemissions
Interim
Goal
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Energy Efficiency
Decarbonized
Electricity
Fuel Displacement by
Low-Carbon Electricity
Forests & SoilsDecarbonized
Fuels
2007 2057
8 GtC/y
16 GtC/y
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges
Methane
Management
Triangle
Stabilization
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Priority #1: Invent a Smart-Carbon
Post-industrial Society
The post-industrialized age features unprecedented
private consumption. In industrialized countries more
than 60% of oil is used in vehicles, more than 60% of
electricity in buildings.
Curbing global CO2 emissions will require major
changes in the post-industrial social envelope.
Effi i U f F l
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Efficient Use of Fuel
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1
ton of carbon.
2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.
Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl
Video-conferencing
Effi i t U f El t i it
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Efficient Use of Electricity
lightingmotors cogeneration
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use incommercial and residential buildings
Target: Commercial and multifamily buildings.
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Priority #2: Redirect the Rush to Coal
The IEA Reference Scenario projects the construction of 1800
GW of new coal capacity world-wide by 2030.
700 GW, with CO2 vented, will emit a billion tons of carbon
as CO2 each year. So, one electricity-carbon wedge results
from not building these plants.
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Wind Electricity
Effort needed by 2055for 1 wedge:
One million 2-MW windmills
displacing coal power.
2006: 75,000 MW (4%)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany
(Danish Wind Industry Association)
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ElectricityEffort needed by 2055 for 1
wedge:
700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing
coal power.
Nuclear
Graphic courtesy of NRC
Phase out of nuclear power creates the
need for another half wedge.
P i h C b C d S
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Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy
Effort needed by
2055 for 1
wedge:
Carbon capture and
storage (CCS) at 800 GWcoal power plants.
CCS at 30 million barrels
of per day fuels- from-
coal plants.
Output of Wabash gasifier: CO + H2. Gases go directly to turbine.
Add for CCS power: CO + H2O CO2 + H2; then CO2 - H2 separation;then H2 to turbine, and CO2 handoff from coal industry to oil and gas industry.
Power with Carbon Capture and Storage
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Carbon Storage
Effort needed by 2055 for 1
wedge:
3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr
900 Carson refinery projects @ 4 MtCO2/yr
100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR
A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flowof oil out of the Earth today
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins
Sleipner project, offshore Norway
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Factoring Global Changes into
Local Decisions Resource allocation and utilization has a global
impact
Environmental, economic and social equitable use ofnatural resources
Choice of technology has both immediate andlong term consequences
Long term effects are frequently not known
Are people willing to sacrifice for the benefit offuture generations?
Tragedy of the commons?
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What will we do when the oil runs
out?
Global Change and Energy: A PathForward, Paul E. Dimotakis
Out of Gas. The End of the Age of Oil,
David Goodstein