Lecture 11

Consumption

Keynes’s Conjectures

1. 0 < MPC < 1

2. APC falls as income rises where APC

= average propensity to consume = C/Y

3. Income is the main determinant of consumption.

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The Keynesian Consumption FunctionA consumption function with the properties Keynes conjectured:

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C

Y

1

c

C C cY

C

c = MPC = slope of

the consumption function

The Keynesian Consumption Function

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C

Y

C C cY

slope = APC

As income rises, the APC falls (consumers save a bigger fraction of their income).

C Cc

Y Y APC

Early Empirical Successes: Results from Early Studies

• Households with higher incomes: consume more

MPC > 0 save more

MPC < 1 save a larger fraction of their income

APC as Y • Very strong correlation between income and

consumption income seemed to be the main

determinant of consumption

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Problems for the Keynesian Consumption Function

Based on the Keynesian consumption function, economists predicted that C would grow more slowly than Y over time. This prediction did not come true:

As incomes grew, the APC did not fall, and C grew just as fast.

Simon Kuznets showed that C/Y was very stable in long time series data.

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The Consumption Puzzle

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C

Y

Consumption function from long time series data (constant APC )

Consumption function from cross-sectional household data (falling APC )

Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice

• The basis for much subsequent work on consumption.

• Assumes consumer is forward-looking and chooses consumption for the present and future to maximize lifetime satisfaction.

• Consumer’s choices are subject to an intertemporal budget constraint, a measure of the total resources available for present and future consumption

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Intertemporal Choice

• Most of macroeconomics is about changes over time

• So far, have jus considered the decision of work versus leisure

• Need to add choice of today versus tomorrow

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Examples

• Some intertemporal choices:– Borrowing and saving by consumers– Investment by firms– Human capital investment by students– Family decisions

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Important Factors for Intertemporal Choice:

• Preferences over time (patience)• Expected return on investment• Expected future economic conditions

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The basic two-period model• Period 1: the present• Period 2: the future• Notation

Y1 is income in period 1

Y2 is income in period 2

C1 is consumption in period 1

C2 is consumption in period 2

S = Y1 C1 is saving in period 1

(S < 0 if the consumer borrows in period 1)

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The Setup

• Utility function:

• Budget constraints:

• Want to know how and depend on– (intertemporal preferences)– (economic conditions)– (return on investment)

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( , ) ( ) ( )U c c u c u c

(1 )

c y s

c y r s

,c c s

,y y

r

Deriving the intertemporal budget constraint

• Period 2 budget constraint:

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2 2 (1 )C Y r S

2 1 1(1 )( )Y r Y C

Rearrange to put C terms on one side and Y terms on the other:

1 2 2 1(1 ) (1 )r C C Y r Y

Finally, divide through by (1+r ):

The intertemporal budget constraint

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2 21 11 1

C YC Y

r r

present value of lifetime

consumption

present value of lifetime

income

The intertemporal budget constraint

The budget constraint shows all combinations of C1 and C2 that just exhaust the consumer’s resources.

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C1

C2

Y1

Y2

Borrowing

Saving

Consump = income in both periods

The intertemporal budget constraint

The slope of the budget line equals (1+r )

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C1

C2

Y1

Y2

1(1+r )

Consumer preferences

An indifference indifference curvecurve shows all combinations of C1 and C2 that make the consumer equally happy.

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C1

C2

IC1

IC2

Higher indifference curves represent higher levels of happiness.

Consumer preferences

Marginal rate of Marginal rate of substitutionsubstitution (MRS ): the amount of C2 consumer would be willing to substitute for one unit of C1.

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C1

C2

IC1

The slope of The slope of an an indifference indifference curve at any curve at any point equals point equals the the MRSMRS at that point.at that point.

1MRS

Optimization

The optimal (The optimal (CC11,,CC22) is ) is where the budget line where the budget line just touches the just touches the highest indifference highest indifference curve. curve.

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C1

C2

O

At the optimal point, MRS = 1+r

How C responds to changes in Y

An increase in Y1 or Y2 shifts the budget line outward.

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C1

C2Results: Provided they are both normal goods, C1 and C2 both increase,

…regardless of whether the income increase occurs in period 1 or period 2.

Keynes vs. Fisher• Keynes:

current consumption depends only on current income

• Fisher: current consumption depends only on the present value of lifetime income; the timing of income is irrelevant because the consumer can borrow or lend between periods.

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How C responds to changes in r

An increase in r pivots the budget line around the point (Y1,Y2 ).

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A

C1

C2

Y1

Y2

A

B

As depicted here, C1 falls and C2 rises.

However, it could turn out differently…

How C responds to changes in r• income effect

If consumer is a saver, the rise in r makes him better off, which tends to increase consumption in both periods.

• substitution effectThe rise in r increases the opportunity cost of current consumption, which tends to reduce C1 and increase C2.

• Both effects C2.

Whether C1 rises or falls depends on the relative size of the income & substitution effects.

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Constraints on borrowing• In Fisher’s theory, the timing of income is irrelevant

because the consumer can borrow and lend across periods.

• Example: If consumer learns that her future income will increase, she can spread the extra consumption over both periods by borrowing in the current period.

• However, if consumer faces borrowing constraints (aka “liquidity constraints”), then she may not be able to increase current consumptionand her consumption may behave as in the Keynesian theory even though she is rational & forward-looking

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Constraints on borrowing

The budget line with no borrowing constraints

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C1

C2

Y1

Y2

Constraints on borrowing

The borrowing constraint takes the form:

C1 Y1

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C1

C2

Y1

Y2

The budget line with a borrowing constraint

Consumer optimization when the borrowing constraint is not binding

The borrowing constraint is not binding if the consumer’s optimal C1 is less than Y1.

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C1

C2

Y1

Consumer optimization when the borrowing constraint is binding

The optimal choice is at point D. But since the consumer cannot borrow, the best he can do is point E.

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C1

C2

Y1

D

E

Mathematical Solution

• Substitute constraints into utility function:

• Setting derivative wrt. s to zero:

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max{ ( ) ( (1 ) )}u y s u y r s

0 ( ) (1 ) ( )

( )1

( )

u c r u c

u cr

u c

Outcome

MRS = Interest rate• Same as before – Simple Model:– Choice between leisure and labor– MRS(l,C) = Relative price (l, C)

• Intertemporal model:– Choice between today and tomorrow– MRS = Relative price

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( , )c c ( , )c c

The Present-Value Budget Constraint

• Present value of x dollars tomorrow:– Amount needed to be saved today to have x

dollars tomorrow–

• Solving period-2 constraint for s:

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( ) / (1 )PV x x r

(1 )

1 1

1 1

c y r s

s c yr r

The Present-Value Budget Constraint

• Plugging the result into the period-1 constraint:

PV(total consumption)=PV(total income)

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1 1

1 11 1

1 1

c y s

c y c yr r

c c y yr r

Outcome

• MRS = Relative price• Pure income effect (increase in either or )

will increase both and – Implies that s increases when rises– Implies that s falls when rises

• Only present value of income matters, distribution irrelevant for consumption

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yy

c c

yy

Example: Log Utility

FOC for

and

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max(log( ) log( (1 ) ))y s y r s

1(1.1)

0.1r 1 1

01.1

2.1

y s y s

y ys

Computing Consumption

• Example I:

• Example II:

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1, 0y y

( ) / 2.1 10 / 21

1 10 / 21 11/ 21

(1 ) 1.1 10 / 21 11/ 21

s y y

c y s

c y r s

0, 1.1y y

( ) / 2.1 11/ 21

11/ 21

(1 ) 1.1 (1 11/ 21) 11/ 21

s y y

c y s

c y r s

Conclusions

• Model predicts strong consumption smoothing: timing of income does not matter

• Result relies on perfect capital market• Even so, evidence for consumption smoothing

is strong

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Consumption Smoothing in Practice

• Life-cycle consumption: borrow early in life, then save for retirement

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Informal Capital Markets

• Default risk prevents some people from borrowing

• Society often finds ways around that problem:– Transfers from parents and relatives– Gift giving and neighborhood help– Social insurance

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The Life-Cycle Hypothesis

• due to Franco Modigliani (1950s)• Fisher’s model says that consumption depends on

lifetime income, and people try to achieve smooth consumption.

• The LCH says that income varies systematically over the phases of the consumer’s “life cycle,”and saving allows the consumer to achieve smooth consumption.

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The Life-Cycle Hypothesis• The basic model:

W = initial wealthY = annual income until retirement (assumed constant)R = number of years until retirementT = lifetime in years

• Assumptions: – zero real interest rate (for simplicity)– consumption-smoothing is optimal

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The Life-Cycle Hypothesis• Lifetime resources = W + RY• To achieve smooth consumption, consumer

divides her resources equally over time:C = (W + RY )/T , orC = W + Y

where = (1/T ) is the marginal propensity to

consume out of wealth = (R/T ) is the marginal propensity to consume

out of income

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Implications of the Life-Cycle HypothesisThe Life-Cycle Hypothesis can solve the consumption puzzle: The APC implied by the life-cycle consumption

function isC/Y = (W/Y ) +

Across households, wealth does not vary as much as income, so high income households should have a lower APC than low income households.

Over time, aggregate wealth and income grow together, causing APC to remain stable.

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Implications of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis

The LCH implies that saving varies systematically over a person’s lifetime.

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Saving

Dissaving

Retirement begins

End of life

Consumption

Income

$

Wealth

The Permanent Income Hypothesis• due to Milton Friedman (1957)

• The PIH views current income Y as the sum of two components: permanent income Y P

(average income, which people expect to persist into the future)

transitory income Y T

(temporary deviations from average income)

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The Permanent Income Hypothesis

• Consumers use saving & borrowing to smooth consumption in response to transitory changes in income.

• The PIH consumption function:C = Y P

where is the fraction of permanent income that people consume per year.

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The Permanent Income Hypothesis

The PIH can solve the consumption puzzle: The PIH implies

APC = C/Y = Y P/Y To the extent that high income households have

higher transitory income than low income households, the APC will be lower in high income households.

Over the long run, income variation is due mainly if not solely to variation in permanent income, which implies a stable APC.

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PIH vs. LCH• In both, people try to achieve smooth

consumption in the face of changing current income.

• In the LCH, current income changes systematically as people move through their life cycle.

• In the PIH, current income is subject to random, transitory fluctuations.

• Both hypotheses can explain the consumption puzzle.

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The Random-Walk Hypothesis

• due to Robert Hall (1978)

• based on Fisher’s model & PIH, in which forward-looking consumers base consumption on expected future income

• Hall adds the assumption of rational expectations, that people use all available information to forecast future variables like income.

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The Random-Walk Hypothesis• If PIH is correct and consumers have rational

expectations, then consumption should follow a random walk: changes in consumption should be unpredictable.• A change in income or wealth that was anticipated

has already been factored into expected permanent income, so it will not change consumption.

• Only unanticipated changes in income or wealth that alter expected permanent income will change consumption.

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Implication of the R-W Hypothesis

If consumers obey the PIH If consumers obey the PIH and have rational expectations, and have rational expectations,

then policy changes then policy changes will affect consumption will affect consumption

only if they are unanticipated. only if they are unanticipated.

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The Psychology of Instant Gratification

• Theories from Fisher to Hall assumes that consumers are rational and act to maximize lifetime utility.

• recent studies by David Laibson and others consider the psychology of consumers.

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The Psychology of Instant Gratification

• Consumers consider themselves to be imperfect decision-makers.– E.g., in one survey, 76% said they were not saving

enough for retirement.

• Laibson: The “pull of instant gratification” explains why people don’t save as much as a perfectly rational lifetime utility maximizer would save.

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Two Questions and Time Inconsistency1. Would you prefer

(A) a candy today, or (B) two candies tomorrow?

2. Would you prefer (A) a candy in 100 days, or (B) two candies in 101 days?

In studies, most people answered A to question 1, and B to question 2. A person confronted with question 2 may choose B. 100 days later, when he is confronted with question 1, the pull of instant gratification may induce him to change his mind.

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Summing up• Keynes suggested that consumption depends

primarily on current income.• Recent work suggests instead that consumption

depends on – current income– expected future income– wealth– interest rates

• Economists disagree over the relative importance of these factors and of borrowing constraints and psychological factors.

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Chapter summary1. Keynesian consumption theory

Keynes’ conjectures MPC is between 0 and 1 APC falls as income rises current income is the main determinant of

current consumption Empirical studies

in household data & short time series: confirmation of Keynes’ conjectures

in long time series data:APC does not fall as income rises

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Chapter summary2. Fisher’s theory of intertemporal choice

Consumer chooses current & future consumption to maximize lifetime satisfaction subject to an intertemporal budget constraint.

Current consumption depends on lifetime income, not current income, provided consumer can borrow & save.

3. Modigliani’s Life-Cycle Hypothesis Income varies systematically over a lifetime. Consumers use saving & borrowing to smooth

consumption. Consumption depends on income & wealth.

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Chapter summary4. Friedman’s Permanent-Income Hypothesis

Consumption depends mainly on permanent income.

Consumers use saving & borrowing to smooth consumption in the face of transitory fluctuations in income.

5. Hall’s Random-Walk Hypothesis Combines PIH with rational expectations. Main result: changes in consumption are

unpredictable, occur only in response to unanticipated changes in expected permanent income.

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Chapter summary6. Laibson and the pull of instant gratification

Uses psychology to understand consumer behavior. The desire for instant gratification causes people to

save less than they rationally know they should.

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