lecture-11: freight assignment - memphis · 11/21/2014 · all or nothing assignment 11 min z ( ),...
TRANSCRIPT
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F R E I G H T T R A V E L D E M A N D M O D E L I N G
C I V L 7 9 0 9 / 8 9 8 9
D E P A R T M E N T O F C I V I L E N G I N E E R I N G
U N I V E R S I T Y O F M E M P H I S
1
Lecture-11: Freight Assignment
11/21/2014
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Outline2
1. Traffic Assignment-General concept
2. Application in Freight
3. Operational freight traffic assignment
4. Case Studies
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Overview3
The procedure used to obtain expected traffic volume on the network is known as trip assignment.
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Assignment Definition4
Given
A graph representation of the urban transportation network
The associated link performance functions, and
An origin-destination matrix
Find
the flow and the associated travel time on each of the network links.
This problem is known as that of traffic assignment as the objective is to assign the O-D matrix onto the network.
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Link Performance Functions
5
Mathematical Relationship Between Traffic Flow and Travel Time
Traffic Flow Traffic Flow
Linear Relationship Non-Linear Relationship
Ro
ute
Tra
vel
Tim
e
Cap
acit
y
Free-Flow
Travel Time
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Link Performance Functions6
A steady-state link performance function is a positive, increasing, and convex curve.
Typical link performance functions do not consider queued vehicles in the traffic stream
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Link Performance Functions7
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Volume in Vehicles/hour
Tra
vel ti
me o
n lin
k
C
Vtt 10
V=volume, C=capacity, t0=free flow travel time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Volume in Vehicles/hour
Tra
vel ti
me o
n lin
k
0.4,15.0
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Assignment Methods8
All-or-nothing (AON)
User equilibrium (UE)
System optimum (SO)
Stochastic user equilibrium (SUE)
Multiple user class assignment
Stochastic multiple user class assignment
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Classification of Traffic Assignment9
User ClassCapacity Restraint
Stochastic Effects Included
No Yes
Single user class
No All-or-nothingDial's Stochastic
Yes UE SUE
Multiple user class
NoA-O-N with multiple user classes
Dial's Stochastic
Yes UE multiple user classes SUE
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All or Nothing Assignment10
Simplest assignment methods
Does not consider any congestion effects
Absence of congestion suggests that link costs are fixed
All drivers are assigned to one route and no driver is assigned to other (less attractive routes)
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All or Nothing Assignment11
min z ( )
,
0 , ,
n n
a a
a
rs
k rs
k
rs
k
y t y
subject to
g q r s
g k r s
minimizing the total travel time over a network with fixed travel time
the auxiliary flow variable for path k connecting O-D pair r-s
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Definition of Equilibria12
To solve the traffic assignment problem, it is required that the rule by which motorists choose a route be specified.
It is reasonable to assume that every motorist will try to minimize his or her own travel time when traveling form origin to destination.
A stable condition is reached only when no traveler can improve his/her travel time by unilaterally changing routes.
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Equilibrium13
UE definition implies that
motorists have full information (choice set and travel times),
motorists consistently make the correct route choice decision
all motorists are identical in their behavior
These assumptions can be partially relaxed in the context of route choice under information provision.
distinction between the travel time that individuals perceiveand the actual travel time
This definition characterizes the stochastic-user-equilibrium (SUE) condition.
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Wardrop’s Equillibrium14
Criterion-1
The journey times on all routes actually uses are equal and less than those which would be experienced by a single vehicle on any unused route
Criterion-2
User equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in such a way that no individual trip maker can reduce his/her path costs by switching routes.
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A simple example of UE15
O D
Link 1
Link 2
t
x
x2
t2(x2) t1(x1)
x1
qOD = x1 +x2
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Operational UE16
Operational definition of UE:
For each O-D pair, at user equilibrium, the travel time on all used paths is
equal, and (also) less than or equal to the travel time that would be
experienced by a single vehicle on any unused path.
Path 1
Cost
Path 2
Cost
Trips on Path 1 Trips on Path 2
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Example UE17
User Equilibrium is reached when no traveler can improve his
travel time by unilaterally changing routes.
100
(30 min)
(40 min)
(65 min)
100
(40 min)
110
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Formulating the Assignment Problem18
NOTATIONS
Network G (N,A)
N is set of consecutively numbered nodes
A is a set of consecutively numbered arcs (links)
R denote the set of origin centroids (which are the nodes at which flows are generated)
S denote the set of destination centroids (which are the nodes at which flows terminate)
qrs is the trip rate between origin “r” and destination “s” during the period of analysis
xa and ta, represent the flow and travel time, respectively, on link a
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Formulating the Assignment Problem19
( )
a a a
rs
k
t t x
f
NOTATIONS
: where . represents the relationship between flow and travel time for link at a
: represents flow on path connecting origin and destination such that path k Krsk r s
rs
kc : is travel time on path is the sum of the travel time on the links comprising this path.k
, ,
where
1 if link is part of path connecting O-D pair
0 otherwise
rsrs
k a rs
a k
rs
k
c t k K r R s S
k r s
Using the same indicator variable, the link flow can be expressed as a function of the path flow, that is
,
rs rs
a k a k
a r s
x f
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User Equilibrium Formulation20
0
,
min z(x) = ( )
subject to
,
0 , ,
ax
a
a
rs
k rs
k
rs
k
rs rs
a k a k
a r s
t d
f q r s
f k r s
x f a
flow conservation constraint
Non negativity constraint
definitional constraints𝛿𝑎,𝑘𝑟𝑠 =
1 𝑖𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑎 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑎𝑡ℎ 𝑘 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑜 − 𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑟𝑠0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
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Significance of User Equilibrium 21
Significance:
Reasonable assumption for representation of human behavior
In order to asses the network performance for given demands UE conditions are assumed
Limitations:
Assumption that each user minimizes travel time implies each user has perfect information on all conditions and routes
Individuals are assumed to behave identically
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UE Note22
Demand for travel depends on the activity pattern, and hence not uniform over time and space.
However transportation planners analyze networks only for certain periods of the day – morning peaks, evening peaks etc. depending on objective of analysis
=> O-D flows are considered constant for such analysis (steady-state) -> static assignment
Flow is present simultaneously on all links of a path (static conditions)
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System Optimal Assignment23
min z(x) = ( )
subject to
,
0 , ,
a a a
a
rs
k rs
k
rs
k
x t x
f q r s
f k r s
flow conservation constraint
Non negativity constraint
Total system travel time
0
,
min z(x) = ( )
subject to
,
0 , ,
ax
a
a
rs
k rs
k
rs
k
rs rs
a k a k
a r s
t d
f q r s
f k r s
x f a
𝛿𝑎,𝑘𝑟𝑠 =
1 𝑖𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑎 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑎𝑡ℎ 𝑘 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑜 − 𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑟𝑠0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Definitional constraint
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SO Properties24
The SO formulation is subject to the same set of constraints as the UE problem and differs only in its objective function
The SO flow pattern does not generally represent an equilibrium solution in congested networks
Consequently, the SO flow pattern is not an appropriate descriptive model of actual user behavior
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Significance of System Optimal 25
1. In many transportation system analysis problem it is useful to know the best performance possible for the network and OD demand
2.This is useful for control action (pricing, tolling) as well as to compare alternative solution strategies
3.Solution procedures for SO are virtually identical to those for UE
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Solving UE26
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Solving UE27
Substitute x2= 12-x1
Differentiate w.r.t x1 and equate to zero
x1= 5.8, x2 = 6.2.
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Solving SO28
Let us consider the same example
For SO
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Solving SO29
Substitute x2= 12-x1
Differentiate the equation and set it to zero
x1 = 5.3,x2= 6.7
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Comparison of Methods30
Type t1 t2 x1 x2 UE Z(x) SO Z(x)
AON 10.00 15.00 12.00 0.00 336.00 552.00
UE 27.40 27.40 5.80 6.20 239.90 328.80
SO 30.10 25.60 5.30 6.70 240.53 327.55
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Stochastic Methods31
Emphasize the variability in driver perception of cost
Need to consider second best routes
No perfect information about network characteristics
Different travel costs perception
Eliminates “zero volume” links
Requires large number of iterations and hence a longer run time
See more in Modeling Transport by Ortuzar and Williumsen, Chapter 10.
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Multiclass traffic assignment32
Older approach
Pce conversion
Preload the usual class first
The
Modern approach
Each user class is assigned simultaneously.
See a worked out example in Nagurney (2000)
Available in TransCAD, Cube, VISUM
Nagurney, A. (2000). A Multiclass, Multicriteria Traffic Network Equilibrium Model. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 32 (2000) 393-411 .
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Model Validation33
Truck counts
By vehicle class
By facility type
By time of day
Screen lines
Cordon lines
Develop RMSE, R2 or other goodness-of-fit measures
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Screenlines Example34
Share of counts per screenline
> 75%
Share of counts per screenline
50% - 75%
< 50%
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Model Validation Example35
All vehicles all day
R² = 0.7826
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Sim
ula
tio
n
Count
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VMT based comparison36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Inte
rsta
te
Fre
eway
s/Ex
pre
ssw
ays
Oth
er P
rin
cip
alA
rte
rial
Min
or
Art
eri
al
Co
llect
or
Loca
l
Dai
ly V
MT
Mill
ion
s
Observed Modeled
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Volume class comparison37
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
<5,000 5,000-10,000
10,000-20,000
20,000-30,000
30,000-40,000
40,000-50,000
50,000-60,000
60,000-70,000
70,000-80,000
80,000-90,000
90,000-100,000
>100,000
%R
MS
E
Volume Class
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State of Practice38
Source: Freight demand modeling:
Tools for public sector decision making
QRFM based
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State of Practice (sample only)39
FAF AON (older versions) Freight only SUE (TransCAD based)
Florida Multiclass UE
Indiana QRFM
Iowa AON
Maryland Multiclass UE
Oregon Multiclass SUE
Ohio Multi UE
Wisconsin Multiclass UE