lecture 11 march2012

8/2/2019 Lecture 11 March2012

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ECO200-Introduction to

Development Economics

Dr. Seeme Mallick

Faculty of BusinessAdministration

Department of ManagementSciences

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786-Lecture-11

Module 3. Poverty, IncomeDistribution and PopulationTransition

Todaro chapters:

6-Population Growth and

Economic Development: Causes,Consequences, and Controversies

Perkins chapters:

7-Population 2


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6-Population Growth and EconomicDevelopment: Causes, Consequences, and

Controversies

A. The Basic Issue: Population Growth and the Quality of Life

B. A Review of Numbers: Population Growth Past, Presentand Future

World Population Growth through History

Structure of the Worlds Population The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

A. The Demographic Transition

D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: TheMalthusian and Household Models

The Malthusian Population Trap

Criticisms of the Malthusian Model

The Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility

The Demand for Children in Developing Countries

Some Empirical Evidence

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Controversies

E. The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflictingopinions

Population Growth Is Not a Real Problem

A Deliberately Contrived False Issue

A Desirable phenomenon Population Growth Is a Real Problem

The Empirical Argument: Seven Negative Consequencesof Population Growth

F. Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus

G. Some Policy Approaches

What Developing Countries Can Do

What the Developed Countries Can Do: Resources,Population and the Global Environment

How Developed Countries Can Assist DevelopingCountries with Their Population Programs

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Controversies

Questions for Discussion

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B. A Review of Numbers:Population Growth Past,

Present and Future Q1. Explain the notion of the hidden

momentum of Population Growth.Why is this an important conceptprojecting future population trends indifferent developing nation?


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C. The DemographicTransition

Q2. Describe briefly the theory of thedemographic transition. At whatstage in this transition do mostdeveloping countries seem to be?Explain your answer.


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D. The Causes of High Fertility in DevelopingCountries: The Malthusian and Household

Models

Q3a. Explain what is The MalthusianPopulation Trap?


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Models

Explaining the Malthusian Trap:

The Malthusian Trap is the theory that, aspopulation growth is ahead of agricultural

growth, there must be a stage at whichthe food supply is inadequate for feedingthe population.

This was originally devised by RobertMalthus in An Essay on the Principle ofPopulation in 1798, arguing that foodsupply expansion is linear whereas human

growth is exponential.


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Models

However, the Green Revolution in1945 is an example of how mankindcan adapt to make food production

more efficient.

Nevertheless there must be a pointat which it cannot become any more

efficient and cause some degree offamine, not to mention thedeforestation, soil erosion and

pollution.


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Models

The idea of Malthusian Catastrophe has also beenextended to energy: since energy consumption isincreasing at a faster rate than population and themajority energy comes from non-renewable

sources, it would appear to be falling into aMalthusian Trap sooner than food production.

However, there are clear alternatives in that casesuch as nuclear energy whereas in food there are

almost certainly none. Malthus theory has its critics such as Julian Simon,

whose counterarguments include the progress ofthought and study in the field and the economys

ability to the increase production when there is ainancial incentive.


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h C f i h ili i l i


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Models

Q3b. What are the bases for theCriticism of Malthusian Trap?


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Criticism of Malthusian Trap

In the first place, it is pointed out that Malthus'spessimistic conclusions have not been borne outby the history of Western European countries.

The gloomy forecast made by Malthus about the

economic conditions of future generations ofmankind has not been realized in the Westernworld.

Population has failed to grow as rapidly as

predicted by Malthus and production hasincreased tremendously because of the rapidadvances in technology.

As a result, living standards of the people have

risen instead of falling as was predicted by


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Secondly, Malthusian theory of population isbased upon the law of diminishing returns asapplied to agriculture.

On the basis of this law Malthus asserted that food

production could not keep pace with populationgrowth.

By making rapid advances in technology andaccumulating capital in larger quantity, advanced

countries have been able to postpone the stage ofdiminishing returns.

By using fertilizers, better seeds and otheragricultural machinery ,they have increased

production greatly.


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In fact, in most of the advanced countriesthe rate of increase of food production hasbeen much greater than the rate of

population growth.Thus, inventions and improvements in the

methods of production have belied thegloomy forecast of Malthus by holding the

law of diminishing returns in check almostindefinitely.

The remarkable progress of the recent

green revolution in many under-developed


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Malthusian theory of population compared thepopulation growth with the increase in foodproduction alone.

Malthus held that because land was available, in

fixed quantity, food production could not risefaster than population.

But he should have considered all types ofproduction and he should have compared the

growth of population not merely with the increasein food supply but with the increase in the totalwealth of a country.

England did feel the shortage of land and food.


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If England had been forced tosupport her population entirely fromher own soil, there can be little doubt

that England would haveexperienced a series of famines bywhich her growth of population would

have been checked.


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Some critics of Malthus, like KarlMarx, argued that Malthus failed torecognize the potential of human

population to increase food supply.Malthus is accused by many to havefailed to comprehend man's ability to

use science and technology toincrease food supply to meet theneeds of an increasing population.

hi h h h h f f d l


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This graph shows how the rate of food supply mayvary but never reaches its carrying capacity becauseevery time it is getting near, there is an invention or

development that causes the food supply toincrease.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity

lecture 11 march2012

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