Energy&Sustainability

Lecture15:FossilFuels–OilandGas

March3,2009

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  Wheredowegetourenergyfrom?

•  A:FossilFuel(78%)

•  “Features”:

1. Non‐renewable

2. Unevendistributed

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  OilwellsonfireinKuwaitduringtheGulfWar

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  TankersblocktheentrancetoaUKrefineryinSep’00,toprotestagainsthighfuelprices

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  AfireonagasrigintheNorthSeain1988killed167people

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  OilspillagefromanExxontankerin1989contaminated1300miofbeachesinAlaska.Theestimatedcostofcleanupwas$3billion

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  Risingsealevelsduetoclimatechangecouldoverwhelmsomelow‐lyingnations

Tuvalu:agroupof9coralatollsinthePacific

Intro:Sources&Impact

•  RisingtemperatureshavecausedsignificantmeltingoficearoundtheNorthPole

Introduction•  fossil

– provideenergy‐relatedservices

– significantenvironmental&socialimpacts

•  lowefficiency(fordelivery)

Sources&Sustainability

Wood Coal

Oil Natural Gas

•  annualenergyconsumption

Sources&Sustainability

•  percapitaconsumption

Sources&Sustainability

1. FossilFuels

✓ highlyconcentrated

✓ easytodistribute

-  non‐renewable

-  emissions

-  health&safetyissues

Sources&Sustainability

•  Coal

Sources&Sustainability

•  Oil

Sources&Sustainability

•  NaturalGas

Oil Mostscientistsagreethatoilcomesfromcreaturesthesizeofapinhead.Theseone‐celledcreatures,knownasdiatoms,aren'treallyplants,butshareoneveryimportantcharacteristicwiththem‐theytakelightfromthesunandconvertitintoenergy

 Diatomsfloatinthetopfewmetersoftheoceans(andlakes‐whichispartofthereasonwhynotALLoilcomesfromoceandeposits!)andalsohappentobeamajorsourceoffoodformanyformsofoceanswimmers.

Plankton•  Twotypes

–  Phytoplankton:PlantsoftheSea–  Zooplankton:SeaAnimals

•  Planktoneitherfloatpassivelyinthewater,orpossesssuchlimitedpowersofswimmingthattheyarecarriedfromplacetoplacebythecurrents.

•  Planktonrangeinsizefromtinymicrobes,whichareinvisibletothenakedeye,tojellyfishmeterslong.

•  Apartfrombacteria,planktonicorganismsarethemostabundantlifeformonearth

•  Theyareacriticalpartofthecarbonenergychain•  Thetotalamountofcarbonintheoceanisabout50timesgreaterthantheamountintheatmosphere,andisexchangedwiththeatmosphereonatime‐scaleofseveralhundredyears.

•  Atleast1/2oftheoxygenwebreathecomesfromthephotosynthesisofmarineplants.

GigaTons of Carbon/yr

Nutrienttraps:

theoriginoffossil‐fuel

deposits

Oil•  Oilisformedfromthepreserved

remainsofprehistoricplankton(diatoms)andalgaewhichhavebeensettledtothesea(orlake)bottominlargequantitiesinwaterdepletedofoxygen.

•  Terrestrialplants,ontheotherhand,tendtoformcoal.•  Overgeologicaltimethisorganicmatter,mixedwith

mud,isburiedunderheavylayersofsediment.Theresultinghighlevelsofheatandpressurecausetheorganicmattertochemicallychange,first–  intoawaxymaterialknownaskerogenwhichisfoundinvarious

oilshalesaroundtheworld,

–  thenwithmoreheatintoliquidandgaseoushydrocarbons‐>OilandNaturalGas

•  Dependingonthebalanceoffreshwaterversusevaporationthiscanchangewithtimeandreverseprovidingdifferentlayers

•  Thisiswhyoilisoftenfoundjustoffshoreorinregionsthatusedtobewatercovered

SourceRock•  Oilcomesfromrocks(sourcerocks)–notbigcaverns•  Thereis"oilwindow"whichisthetemperaturerange

thatoilformsin—belowtheminimumtemperatureoilremainstrappedintheformofkerogen,andabovethemaximumtemperaturetheoilisconvertedtonaturalgas

•  Thiscorrespondstoacertaindepthintheearth

•  Threeconditionsmustbepresentforoilreservoirstoform:– asourcerockrichinorganicmaterialburieddeepenoughforsubterraneanheattocookitintooil;

– aporousandpermeablereservoirrockforittoaccumulatein;

– acaprock(seal)orothermechanismthatpreventsitfromescapingtothesurface.

•  Thevastmajorityofoilthathasbeenproducedbytheearthhaslongagoescapedtothesurfaceandbeenbiodegradedbyoil‐eatingbacteria.

•  Oilcompaniesarelookingforthesmallfractionthathasbeentrappedbythisrarecombinationofcircumstances.

•  Oilsandsarereservoirsofpartiallybiodegradedoilstillintheprocessofescaping,butcontainsomuchmigratingoilthat,althoughmostofithasescaped,vastamountsarestillpresent‐morethancanbefoundinconventionaloilreservoirs.

•  Ontheotherhand,oilshalesaresourcerocksthathaveneverbeenburieddeepenoughtoconverttheirtrappedkerogenintooil.

Fossilfuelavailabilty

Whichcountryhasthelargestoilreserves?

•  Iran•  Iraq•  SaudiArabia•  Canada•  Venezuela

Whichcountryhasthesecondlargestoilreserves?

•  Iran•  Iraq•  SaudiArabia•  Canada•  Venezuela

Whichcountryhasthesecondlargestoilreserves?

•  Iran•  Iraq•  SaudiArabia•  Canada•  Venezuela

WhatfractionoftheknownOilreserveisinSaudiArabia?

1.  1%2.  5%3.  10%4.  20%5.  30%6.  40%

WhatfractionoftheknownOilreserveisinSaudiArabia?

1.  1%2.  5%3.  10%4.  20%5.  30%6.  40%

© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

Provenworldoilreservesin1998.

*

*Over 95% of these reserves are oil sands deposits in Alberta

© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

Majortraderoutesfortheworld’soil,emphasizingthecountriesthatuseMiddleEasternoil.

GasolinePrices

Howmuchwouldraisinggasprices$1/galloncosttheaverageUS

family?1.  $500/yr2.  $1000/yr3.  $1500/yr4.  $2000/yr5.  $2500/yr

CosttoAverageConsumer•  AssumeDrivergoes12,000miles/year•  Cargets24mi/gallon

•  500gallons/year•  Each$1/galloncost$500/year/car

CosttoAverageConsumer•  Ifyouhave2driversperfamily$1,000year

CosttoAverageConsumer•  TaxesareNOTalargepercentageofthecost

•  Nowaround13%$0.45/gallon

O

© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

Taxesfor1galofgasolineinU.S.

dollarsequivalentforselectedcountries,

1995.

Improvements

•  EnergyServices&EfficiencyImprovements

1. EnergyEfficiencyImprovements

1. Demand‐sideimprovements

–  Transportsector

» motorvehicles

»  rail

»  air

»  shipping

»  non‐motorized

NaturalGas

•  Sincethelate1990s,naturalgashasbeenthefuelofchoiceforthemajorityofnewgeneratingunits,resultingina99.0percentincreaseinnaturalgas‐firedcapacitysince1999.

•  Theconstructionofnaturalgasplantsbeganincreasingin1999,peakedduring2002and2003,buthassincedeclinedconsiderably.

•  In2006,naturalgas‐firedgeneratingcapacityrepresented388,294MWor39.4percentoftotalnetsummergeneratingcapacity.Althoughnewnaturalgas‐firedcombined‐cycleplantsproduceelectricitymoreefficientlythanolderfossil‐fueledplants,highnaturalgaspricescanworkagainstfullutilizationoftheseplantsifsuchpricesadverselyaffecteconomicdispatch

PeakCapacity(Summer)

CCGT

•  EnergyServices&EfficiencyImprovements

•  CombinedCycleGasTurbine

–  ~50%efficiency

– more“climatefriendly”

HubbertMarionKingHubbert(October5,1903–October11,1989)wasageoscientistwhoworkedattheShellresearchlabinHouston,Texas

Hubbert’speak

WorldOil

HirschReportofDoE2005

•  Worldoilpeakingisgoingtohappen,andwilllikelybeabrupt.

•  Oilpeakingwilladverselyaffectglobaleconomies,particularlythosemostdependentonoil.

•  Oilpeakingpresentsauniquechallenge(“itwillbeabruptandrevolutionary”).

•  Theproblemisliquidfuels(growthindemandmainlyfromtransportationsector).

•  Mitigationeffortswillrequiresubstantialtime.–  20yearsisrequiredtotransitionwithoutsubstantialimpacts

–  A10yearrushtransitionwithmoderateimpactsispossiblewithextraordinaryeffortsfromgovernments,industry,andconsumers

–  Lateinitiationofmitigationmayresultinsevereconsequences.•  Bothsupplyanddemandwillrequireattention.

•  Itisamatterofriskmanagement(mitigatingactionmustcomebeforethepeak).

•  Governmentinterventionwillberequired.

–  Economicupheavalisnotinevitable(“givenenoughlead‐time,theproblemsaresolublewithexistingtechnologies.”)

–  Moreinformationisneededtomorepreciselydeterminethepeaktimeframe.