LECTURE 2 : Malthus, Boserup and Meadows

Thrust of the lecture

• Postulation about the relationship between population & resources• Malthus attempts to depict a ‘grave’ world in the future•Boserup optimistic about the future, technology helps to increase the volume of resources•Meadows projects a decline in industrial output and increase in the level of population in the future

Relationships between Population and Resources

Variable situations Ro P E

1 L L H

2 L H H

3 L H L

With low resources, high population and high expectation, maladjustment sets in readily as shown in situation 2.

Thomas Malthus ( 1766-1834)

• A British economist who hypothesized that the supply of food cannot keep pace with the increase in population•He used the ‘ Law of Diminishing Returns’ to explain thiseconomic principle•In his article ‘ Principle of Population’ he described thatpopulation increases geometrically while food supply increase only in an arithmetic ratio. •This could happen if the population is unchecked•He showed that gluts of unsold goods could arise from‘ under-consumption’.- challenged the doctrine that supplycreates its own demand.

Essence of Malthus’s theory

Increase in population------> increase in food demand

Less food available

Increase in Mortality

Decrease in fertilityDecrease in popgrowth

Malthus Theory

He used the food supply ceiling to explain the concept ofcarrying capacity.

TotalPop.

Time

Food supply ceiling

Population crisis

Maladjustmentoccurs

X

Y

Concept of Carrying Capacity by Malthus

• Carrying capacity(Cc) is used to denote the capabilityof the environment to support a given population basedon the available resources so that an acceptable SOLcan prevail in the society

•Beyond Cc, society will not function properly - there willexist social and economic deficiencies.

• A cyclical pattern of pop growth takes place

• Pop and Ro will adjust themselves if either one of themchange to create an equilibrium situation.

Criticism to Malthus Theory

•He underestimated the pace of economic development thatcan create economic wealth•The widespread use of birth control methods check on pop. Growth•Emigration as a solution to reduce PPR in some areas•Economic development creates low fertility rate•He ignored the use of technology that can increase resourcebase of the nation

Boserup Theory

• Boserup had an optimistic view of the world •She saw population growth not a problem but a ‘ blessingin disguise’ as population growth stimulates innovation• ‘ Necessity is the mother of invention’- mankind will thinkof ways to improve the economic situations•She researched on the food production and population ina subsistence agricultural economy •A great believer of modern farming techniques can alleviatehunger the world over

Boserup theory in essence

Increase in Population

Increase in demand for food

Improved technologies( increase in food ss)

Population increase unchecked

Criticism of Boserup’s Theory

•Considered only carbohydrate food as the measurementfor self-sufficiency in food in-take.•The impact of physical factors like severe drought that canreduce food production is not taken into consideration•She did consider time as a factor in agricultural innovations•The economic principle does not consider the advent ofglobal economy to the given society- possibility of emigrationto relieve PPR was never mentioned.

Meadow’s Limits To Growth

•The model attempts to show a pessimistic outlook of the future world•The theory encapsulates the idea that resources are fixed andthat technology cannot increase Ro forever.•Industrial output and resource utilization leads to the environmental destruction and pollution•This has severe repercussion to the community - productivitywill be severely affected as resources deplete

Limits to growth Model

High

Low

Time1900 2100

resources

pop

pollution

food

What the theory encapsulates

•In the early 1900, population grows steadily and foodproduction grows faster than pop.•After 2000, population grows geometrically while foodsupply at arithmetical rate•The depletion of resources is due to an increase in theindustrial development•Pollution level will increase indefinitely that will mar theenvironment •A check on population will occur as pollution level increasesand sharp decline in the resource base of a country occurs

Criticism of Limits to Growth Model

• Ignore that social changes that are taking place can reducepopulation growth- fertility declines due to industrialization and urbanization•Economic changes and efficient use of resources can avertthis situation• Technology can be used to make an efficient use ofresources

Estimation of the World Resources

• ELDC will have to increase 4x their food supply by 2000•The world’s food supply must increase 3 x in the future•Water and energy resources will be in near depletion due to pollution and abuse of resources•Other raw material, land and basic amenities will be in short•supply

The world governments must think of ways to increase foodproduction and efficient use of resources to avert theworst scenario as depicted by Meadows.