lecture 3 1 recap random variables continuous random variable sample space has infinitely many...
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lecture 31
RecapRandom variables
Continuous random variable • Sample space has infinitely many elements
• The density function f(x) is a continuous function
• Calculation of probabilities
P( a < X < b ) = f(t) dt
Discrete random variable
• Sample space is finite or countably many elements
• The probability function f(x)Is often tabulated
• Calculation of probabilities
P( a < X < b) = f(t) a<t<b
b
a
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lecture 32
Mean / Expected value Definition
Definition: Let X be a random variable with probability /Density function f(x). The mean or expected value of X is give by
if X is discrete, and
if X is continuous.
x
)x(fx)X(Eμ
dx)x(fx)X(Eμ
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lecture 33
Mean / Expected value Interpretation
Interpretation:The total contribution of a value multiplied by the probability of the value – a weighted average.
Mean value= 1,5
x0 1 2 3
0.10.20.30.4
f(x)
Example:
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lecture 34
Mean / Expected valueExample
Problem: • A private pilot wishes to insure his plane valued at 1 mill kr.• The insurance company expects a loss with the following probabilities:
• Total loss with probability 0.001• 50% loss with probability 0.01• 25% loss with probability 0.1
1. What is the expected loss in kroner ?2. What premium should the insurance company
ask if they want an expected profit of 3000 kr ?
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lecture 35
Theorem: Let X be a random variable with probability / density function f(x). The expected value of g(X) is
if X is discrete, and
if X is continuous.
Mean / Expected value Function of a random variable
x
)X(g)x(f)x(g)]X(g[Eμ
dx)x(f)x(g)]X(g[Eμ)X(g
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lecture 36
Theorem: Linear combinationLet X be a random variable (discrete or continuous), and let a and b be constants. For the random variable aX + b we have
E(aX+b) = aE(X)+b
Expected valueLinear combination
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lecture 37
Mean / Expected valueExample
Problem: • The pilot from before buys a new plane valued at 2 mill kr.• The insurance company’s expected losses are unchanged:
• Total loss with probability 0.001• 50% loss with probability 0.01• 25% loss with probability 0.1
1. What is the expected loss for the new plane?
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lecture 38
Mean / Expected valueFunction of a random variables
Definition:Let X and Y be random variables with joint probability / density function f(x,y). The expected value of g(X,Y) is
if X and Y are discrete, and
if X and Y are continuous.
x y
)Y,X(g)y,x(f)y,x(g)]Y,X(g[Eμ
dydx)y,x(f)y,x(g)]Y,X(g[Eμ)Y,X(g
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lecture 39
Problem:Burger King sells both via “drive-in” and “walk-in”.Let X and Y be the fractions of the opening hours that “drive-in” and “walk-in” are busy.Assume that the joint density for X and Y are given by
Mean / Expected valueFunction of two random variables
4xy 0 x 1 , 0 y 10 otherwise
The turn over g(X,Y) on a single day is given by
g(X,Y) = 6000 X + 9000Y
What is the expected turn over on a single day?
f(x,y) = {
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lecture 310
Mean / Expected value Sums and products
Theorem: Sum/ProductLet X and Y be random variables then
E[X+Y] = E[X] + E[Y]
If X and Y are independent then
E[X Y] = E[X] E[Y] ..
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lecture 311
VarianceDefinition
Definition:Let X be a random variable with probability / density function f(x) and expected value . The variance of X is then given
if X is discrete, and
if X is continuous.
The standard deviation is the positive root of the variance:
x
222 )x(f)μx(])μX[(E)X(Varσ
dx)x(f)μx(])μX[(E)X(Varσ 222
)X(Varσ
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lecture 312
VarianceInterpretation
Varians = 0.5 Varians = 2
The variance expresses, how dispersed the density / probability function is around the mean.
x 1 2 3
0.10.20.30.4
f(x)
x0 1 2 3 4
0.10.20.30.4
f(x)0.5 0.5
Rewrite of the variance:222 μ]X[E)X(Varσ
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lecture 313
Theorem: Linear combinationLet X be a random variable, and let a be b constants. For the random variable aX + b the variance is
VarianceLinear combinations
Examples: Var (X + 7) = Var (X) Var (-X ) = Var (X) Var ( 2X ) = 4 Var (X)
)X(Vara)baX(Var 2
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lecture 314
CovarianceDefinition
Definition:Let X and Y be to random variables with joint probability / density function f(x,y). The covariance between X and Y is
if X and Y are discrete, and
if X and Y are continuous.
x y
YXYXXY)y,x(f)μy)(μx()]μY)(μX[(E)Y,X(Covσ
dydx)y,x(f)μy)(μx()Y,X(CovσYXXY
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lecture 315
CovarianceInterpretation
Covariance between X and Y expresses how X and Y influence each other.
Examples: Covariance between
• X = sale of bicycle and Y = bicycle pumps is positive.
• X = Trips booked to Spain and Y = outdoor temperature is negative.
• X = # eyes on red dice and Y = # eyes on the green dice is zero.
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lecture 316
Theorem:The covariance between two random variables X and Y with means X and Y, respectively, is
CovarianceProperties
Notice! Cov (X,X) = Var (X)
If X and Y are independent random variables, then
Cov (X,Y) = 0
Notice! Cov(X,Y) = 0 does not imply independence!
YXXYμμ]YX[E)Y,X(Covσ
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lecture 317
Variance/CovariaceLinear combinations
Theorem: Linear combinationLet X and Y be random variables, and let a and b beconstants.For the random variables aX + bY the variance is
Specielt: Var[X+Y] = Var[X] + Var[Y] +2Cov (X,Y)
If X and Y are independent, the variance is
Var[X+Y] = Var[X] + Var[Y]
)Y,X(Covba2)Y(Varb)X(Vara)bYaX(Var 22
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lecture 318
CorrelationDefinition
Definition:Let X and Y be two random variables with covariance Cov (X,Y) and standard deviations X and Y, respectively.
The correlation coefficient of X and Y is
It holds that
If X and Y are independent, then
YX
XY σσ
)Y,X(Covρ
1ρ1XY
0ρXY
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lecture 319
Mean, variance, covariaceCollection of rules
Sums and multiplications of constants:
E (aX) = a E(X) Var(aX) = a2Var (X) Cov(aX,bY) = abCov(X,Y)
E (aX+b) = aE(X)+b Var(aX+b) = a2 Var (X)
Sum:E (X+Y) = E(X) + E(Y) Var(X+Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) + 2Cov(X,Y)
X and Y are independent: E(XY) = E(X) E(Y) Var(X+Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y)