lecture 8: growth theory, stock market, long run issues and china dr. rajeev dhawan director given...

Lecture 8: Growth Theory, Stock Market, Long Run Issues and China Dr. Rajeev Dhawan Director Given to the EMBA 8400 Class South Class Room #600 February 17, 2006

Chapter 25 Production & Growth

Production and Growth A countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services. In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year. A nations standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers.

Productivity Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services that a worker can produce from each hour of work (Average Labor Productivity) Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.

The Factors of Production The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the factors of production. The Factors of Production Physical capital Human capital Natural resources Technological knowledge

The Production Function Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = quantity of output A = available production technology L = quantity of labor K = quantity of physical capital H = quantity of human capital N = quantity of natural resources F( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined.

The Production Function Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L) Where: Y/L = output per worker K/L = physical capital per worker H/L = human capital per worker N/L = natural resources per worker The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capital per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).

The Importance of Saving and Investment Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning (a) Growth Rate 19601991 (b) Investment 1960 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda Investment (percent of GDP)Growth Rate (percent) 01234567010203040

What is the Impact on Growth? Investment from Abroad Education Property Rights and Political Stability Free Trade Research and Development

CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup in US From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a rate of 3.2 percent per year. From 1973 to 1995 productivity grew by only 1.5 percent per year. Productivity accelerated again in 1995, growing by 2.6 percent per year on average during the next six years.

The Growth in Real GDP Per Person Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Growth Rate (percent per year) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1870 1890 1890 1910 1910 1930 1930 1950 1950 1970 1970 1990 1990 2000 0

Growth Accounting 3 factors that Fuel Growth Labor Capital Technology Debate is regarding the mechanism via which technology contributes to growth 2 Main branches of thought Old Solow & New Romer (Lucas) Style

What does Paul Romer say (direct quote from Wired Magazines, June 1996 article) Old growth theory says we have to decide how to allocate scarce resources among alternative uses. New growth theory says...

.. Bull$#!+! Were in this world, its got some objects, sure, but its got these ideas, too, and all that stuff about scarcity and price systems is just wrong

New Growth Economics Technical progress is an outcome of conscious R&D investments done by the Industrial sector. R&D involves the use of skilled people with existing stock of knowledge to produce new knowledge.

The new knowledge is in the form of: Specifically, one sectors R&D efforts spill over to other sectors at very low cost.

What do the New Growth Adherents have to Say (LA Times, June 10 1997) Allen Sinai What is coming could be the perhaps the best performance in our history W. Michael Cox For the next 20 years, were going to have a period of massive growth

Where do I stand in this debate? The rise in the R&D investments in 1980s coupled with the new technological developments of the 90s are expected to raise the growth rate of GDP. Q. By how much? A. 0.2% extra growth per year!

What Does Research Tell Us? Mark Zandi A Productivity Primer (1999) Measurement errors in CPI Falling proportion of self employed workers Dhawan & Gerdes, Journal of Productivity Analysis (1997). Analysis of U.S. Firm level Data using new estimation tools shows that the Services sector is responsible for the decline in technical progress during 1970-1989 period. Robert Gordon Has the New Economy Rendered the Productivity Slowdown Obsolete? (1999). No acceleration in productivity growth in the 99 percent of the economy once you take out computer hardware sector!

What Does Research Tell Us? Greenwood & Jovanovic, American Economic Review (1999) % of GDP 1968 1996 1968 incumbents 80 46 Over the Counter 34 86 Dhawan, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (2001). Small firms are atleast 20% more productive than large firms using U.S. firm level data for 1970-1989.

Economic Growth Accounting 3 Factors that Fuel Growth Labor CapitalTechnology 1960-1970 1.7% NA 2.9% 1970-1980 2.6% 4.7% 1.7% 1980-1990 1.6% 2.8% 1.1% 1990-2000 1.1% 3.5% 1.5% 2000-2010 1.0% 4.9% 1.6% 2010-2020 0.9% 3.5% 1.8%

Inflation and Growth Evidence in U.S. Averages Inflation GDP Growth 1975-1980 8.9% 3.6% 1980-1985 5.5% 2.9% 1985-1990 4.0% 2.9% 1990-1995 3.1% 2.0% 1995-2000 2.4% 4.3% 1947 to 1998 correlation is -0.43 1960 to1998 correlation is -0.48 Lead Correlation is -0.59

A Crazy Theory of Growth Take the typical growth model and extend it to include inflation expectations (IE) Y t = A t F(K t, L t ; IE) (1) A t, F(K t, L t : IE) = A t,K t L t 1 - [exp(IE)] < 0 (2) Doing the growth accounting Solow style one gets: Growth in Y = Growth in A + [Growth in K] + 1- [Growth in L] + [deceleration in Inflation Expectations]

Why ? To paraphrase Chairman Greenspan, the economy works best when inflation is so low that businesses and households do not have to take into account when making everyday decisions. Governor Roger Ferguson Jr., Sept. 9th,1999 Mark Schweitzer and Erica Groshen Identifying Inflations Grease and Sand Effects in the Labor Markets NBER Working Paper #6061

Implications for a Central Banker 1. US FED should Maintain Price Stability 2. Japanese Should Inflate! Reputation as Inflation Hawk is Worth its Weight in GDP Growth.

Signature THIS NUMBER HAS BEEN AUTHORIZED FOR IS THERE REALLY A CRISIS? ARE PRIVATE ACCOUNTS A GOOD IDEA?

19708090200010203020405060702080 Social Security Timeline 1984-2017 Trust-fund surplus builds to more than $3 trillion 2018 Costs surpass income; Trust-fund depletion begins 2018-2041 100% of benefits are covered by the trust fund and taxes 2042 Trust fund is empty. Tax income covers only 70% of promised benefits Source: Social Security Administration; CBO; GAO; SSAB

The TRUTH About Social Security Who Needs it? 63% Retirees (30 million) Spouses and children of retired and disabled workers (4.8 million) 10% Disabled workers (6.2 million) 13% Survivors of deceased workers (6.7 million) 14% How Much of a Retirees Income Comes from Social Security Less than 50% 50% to 89% 90% to 99% 100% 35% 32% 13% 20% Source: Social Security Administration; CBO; GAO; SSAB

How to Fix Social Security Raise Taxes, Trim Benefits The Private Account Fix Bush Model Add-on Accounts The Do-Nothing Approach What Crunch? Cartoon by Clay Bennett, The Christian Science Monitor, Boston

How Would the BUSH Plan Work? THE PROS Control Better Returns Offset the Pain Encourage Savings No New Taxes THE CONS Risk Debt Uncertainty Undersaving Delayed Reaction Source: The Time, January 24, 2005; Cartoon: David Catrow Springfield, Ohio - The News-Sun

Anonymous Venters Since when did Social Security become a personal retirement plan? It is a safety net for the elderly that must be preserved or society will pay in the end Source: The Atlanta Journal Constitution, The Vent, Jan. 30 & Feb. 10, 2005 Social Security is not even close to being broke. The government just does not want to pay back the money it has looted from it over the years

FranceGermanyJapanBritainU.S. Needed Productivity Growth Rate to DOUBLE Per-Capita Income 1.8%2.0%2.3%1.7%1.6% Historical Growth Rate (1980 2003) 1.5% 2.0%1.9%1.7% Productivity Can Make Up the Gap Source: Business Week, January 31, 2005

U.S. Long-Term Forecast 10 Year Averages for Years Ending: 2000 2010 2020 Real GDP Growth 3.43.22.9 Unemployment Rate (%)5.64.74.9 Inflation (CPI Index) 2.8 2.5 2.5 10-Year Bonds 6.4 6.0 5.0

Health Care Cost Projections Our forecast scenario predicts that by 2020 share of medical consumption in GDP will rise to 13% from the current 9%. At 8% rate of growth the share is21% At 9% rate of growth the share is 30%

How Do We Solve This Problem ? 1. Tax Hikes and Benefit Reductions 2. Ship Boomers to India 3. Bring in 100 Million Immigrants

Solution Whats needed are medical advances that prolong the productive life-span and not so much the actual one! Work em Until Theyre Dead! Prof. Larry J. Kimbell September 1997 Prof. Rajeev M. Dhawan September 1998

Working of Monetary Mechanism FED Hikes/Lowers Short Term Rate Immediately Hikes/Lowers Long Term Rates First Hurts/Boosts Housing and Auto Sales, Weakness/Strength then Ripples Through the Economy Rate Hikes/Cuts also Hurt/Spur Bank Lending Which Hurts/Aids Business Investment

U.S. Macro Policy Issues Past Fed actions: 1959-61 Mild recession-- killed Nixon 1967 False start -- mistake -- produced Growth recession 1969-71 Recession, followed by price controls, suppressed inflation, disaster in 1972-73 1973-75 WIN for Ford; bad recession; Carter tried recovery when inaugurated in 1977, 2 yrs after trough.

U.S. Macro Policy Issues Past Fed actions: (cont)\ 1980 Carter/Volcker credit controls -- short recession, sharp recovery, no cure, need drastic no quick fix -- Volcker/Reagan 1981-82 Serious long recession in spite of rational expectations effort by Volcker/Reagan.

U.S. Macro Policy Issues Past Fed actions: (cont) 1986-89 Fed tightens to head off excess growth, might have succeeded except for Kuwait War. 1994-95 Fed heads off over-heating successfully for the first and only time 1997 Feds tried to pop the asset bubble? 1999-2000 Rate hikes popped the asset bubble 2001-Now Containing the bubble and 9/11 damage

Forecasting the Fed

What Does Taylor Rule Predict? Federal Funds Rate = Real Interest Rate + Targeted Inflation Factor + 0.5 (Current GDP Gr.-Trend GDP Gr.)+ 0.5 (Current Inflation - Targeted Inflation)

What Does Taylor Rule Predict?

Should the FED Have Been Aggressive in Raising Rates in the late 90s?

The Answer Depends Upon What are bubbles? Can the central banker distinguish between stock price growth due to change in fundamentals--lowered equity premiums and higher future dividends-- versus irrational exhuberance?

The Late 90s!

Whats A Bubble Tulipmania (1637) South Sea Bubble (1720) Railway Mania (1840s) Crash of 1929 Kuwait (1982) Japan (1990)

Whats Not A Bubble New Technology Reduced Equity Premiums Higher Future Dividends

Late 90s Expectations

Greenspans Frank Admission To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific companies that make up our broad stock price indexes. August 27th,1999

Greenspans Worry People dont perceive the savings rate as negative. As far as theyre concerned, theyre saving quite adequately. They are looking at their 401(k)s ! -- May 27th,1999

Was The Euphoria Misplaced? Yes! Implied that we were betting the entire ranch on the expectation that Greenspan will cut rates in case of a crash/correction. More Importantly the Central Banker cannot distinguish between stock price growth due to change in fundamentals versus irrational exuberance.

Shillers Irrational Exuberance 3 Factors: Structural, Cultural and Psychological Precipitating Forces: Internet, Optimism & Demographic Shifts Amplifiers-Naturally Occurring Ponzi Processes News Media & Wall Street Analysts

The current technology, Internet and Telecom craze, fueled by the performance desires of investors, money managers and even financial buyers, is unwittingly creating a Ponzi pyramid destined for collapse.-- Julian Robertson Jr.

What Does Finance Theory Say Efficient markets imply stock returns are a random walk. Valuation ratio (P/E) are stable around the historical i.e. mean reversion property.

Theory: Stock Returns are a Random Walk Implication: Mean reversion of Dividend Payout Ratio Logic: Returns (r t ) = Dividend + Price Appreciation Price = (D t / P t ) + P / P t

If D t / P t Ratio and r is constant : P / P t Price is a function of Expected Future Dividends Dividend Stream (Dt) must rise D t / P t ratio to yield a constant r Mean Reversion Property of Div. Payout Ratio

What Does Data Say Prices move in direction that drives drives the P/E to its historical mean (Campbell & Shiller (2001) NBER paper #8221).

Are Stocks Esp. Tech Stocks a Bargain Now?

Question On Everybodys Mind: Going in Now Will I Get 10%+ Stock Returns?

No one can predict with any certainty which way the next 1,000 points will be. - Wall Street Journal Monday October 1, 2001

Stocks long-term return looks better now than at any time over the last four to five years. This is the time you want to go in. But anybody who needs money in the next few years should not be in the stock market. Anything can happen to the stock market over short periods of time Jeremy Siegel Professor of Finance, Wharton Source: Knowledge @ Wharton.com Jeremy Siegel on Stocks The Worst is Over! The Worst is Over!

Theyre in a dream world(with regard to their overstated pension return assumptions) G.E. is by no means at the top of the list there are some companies projecting 10-%!... Its pie in the sky! - John Bogle Vanguard Group Founder CNBC Interview, July 22, 2002 The Admiral of Index Funds

Max Darnell, Partner, First Quadrant Speaker at Our May 2002 Quarterly Forecasting Conference Source: Attributing Return Ibbotson Data

I think the stock market is setting up for future returns of 6%-7%...by providing dividend yields of 3%-4% which will require companies to increase their current 2% yields OR the most probable way is for prices to decline 25% or so.. the DOW will rest in the 6000-7000 range. The Bond King - Bill Gross PIMCO Total Return Fund Manager CNBC Interview, July 22, 2002

Source: Fortune Magazine, December 10, 2001 A perspective from Warren Buffet I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or even the next year, or the next two.

Source: Fortune Magazine, December 10, 2001 If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That wont happen.

Source: Forecasting Conference Nov 15 th 2001 A perspective from Larry Kimbell Professor Emeritus UCLA & Ex-Director UCLA Business Forecasting Project

Lesson 1. Dont stick your head in the sand Some anthrax victims have waited to the last minute to be checked even though they were obviously at risk.

Lesson 2. Dont exaggerate risks During WWII American statisticians estimated German tank production monthly fairly accurately, but the estimates used for planning were 10 times too large. The statistician (later my Professor at Yale) passed the estimate to his superior, who being a prudent man, doubled it and passed to to his superior, who...

Therefore, face danger fearfully but realistically An in-depth psychological study of the attitudes of surgery patients before and after surgery found: Best results when attitude prior to surgery was fearful but realistic. Next best when patients were hysterical--since fears were neurotic & not based on real threats. Worst results when patients had no fear. Later felt angry at surgeons for victimizing them. Couldnt manage the pain. Realism requires empirical evidence.

Ibbotson evidence shows good returns on large company investments: Kimbell thinks otherwise

Ibbotson evidence show high returns on small company investments

Source: WSJ, July 29, 2002 Market timing has gotten an excessively bad reputation Conventional wisdom holds that its a fools errand. Its certainly not an exact science, but I think people will come back to it. Robert Shiller Professor of Economics Yale University Comments from the Author of Irrational Exuberance

Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution, Friday July 19, 2002

Views From the Top of the Himalayas

Economic Fallacies & Forecasting Truths Growth of Today is the Same as Yesterdays i.e. History Repeats itself (if it really did then why call ME!) -Inflation vs. Deflation era -Lack of Pricing Power; Tech Wave -Economies of Scale/Fixed Costs -9/11s Cost Factor -BPM/Automation

Nobody has the capacity to fathom fully how the tragedy of September 11 will play out. Alan Greenspan, Sept. 20, 2001.

Real GDP 20002001 Most Optimistic Scenario Outlook following September 11 200220042006 Time What If?

I will PUMP UP PUMP UP K lifornia I will NOT pump up interest rates

Economic Fallacies & Forecasting Truths Stock Market is Where a 25+ Year Worker Should Invest -True as I Want Him/Her to Pay For My Mistakes -False when I look at the PE Ratio

The Marc Faber View - Marc Faber Managing Director Marc Faber Ltd., Hong Kong Mr. Greenspan was one of the principal architects of this debt explosion over the past 20 years. But I pray he lives as long as possible and is replaced by Mr. Bernanke, because the business of everybody in this room has thrived on account of their policies. We must be grateful to Mr. Greenspan. Every time there is a shock to the system, more money is printed and our businesses can continue to flourish Source: Barrons, January 19, 2004

The Abby Cohen View Typically, I look at the median P/E, for the 250 th company in the S&P, which removes outliers. The market is selling for 17-17.5 times 2004 earnings, which is reasonable under a low-inflation scenario. The market is modestly undervalued and will move higher as earnings improve - Abby Joseph Cohen Chair, Investment Policy Committee Goldman Sachs, N.Y. Source: Barrons, January 19, 2004

The Bill Gross View - Bill Gross Founder and Chief Investment Officer Pimco, Newport Beach, Calif. There are two primary agendas in the world today. No. 1, the US is trying to reflate its economy. No. 2, China is trying to employ tens of millions of people. Both agendas are dominating in terms of not only 1% interest rates in the U.S., but Chinas insistence on fixing the renminbi to the dollar. These agendas are calling the shots for lots of currency moves, mini-bubbles in asset markets and potential global volatility. Source: Barrons, January 19, 2004

Economic Fallacies & Forecasting Truths Trade Deficit is a Bad Thing

The Marc Faber View - Marc Faber Managing Director Marc Faber Ltd., Hong Kong But lets distinguish between real and fictitious growth. In China, there is tremendous investment in plant, equipment and infrastructure, which is real economic growth. On the other hand, it has now become fashionable, especially in the U.S., for men to have cosmetic surgery. As a result, lets say more hospitals are built. More doctors have to be hired and employment goes up. But to what extent does that create economic growth? A lot of economic growth in the U.S. is artificial, essentially transferring money from Peters pocket to Pauls. Source: Barrons, January 19, 2004

The Meryl Witmer View If the dollar is low enough, the world can get its plastic surgery here. - Meryl Witmer General partner Eagle Capital Partners, N.Y. Source: Barrons, January 19, 2004

Net Balance In International Trade* What They Buy From Us Airplanes13.2 Chemicals (Plastic)10.9 Airplane Parts10.5 Soybeans6.6 Corn6.0 Wheat5.0 Scientific Instruments4.5 Cotton4.2 Metal Ores3.2 Animal Feeds3.0 What We Buy From Them Crude Oil-135.7 Vehicles-123.2 Clothing-67.9 Home Electronics-67.8 Office Electronics-65.6 Petroleum Preparations-28.3 Furniture and Bedding-23.7 Natural Gas-21.1 Electrical Machinery-20.2 Toys, Sporting Goods-19.1 *Net Balance In Billions of Dollars

Passenger Car Production & Sales Country ProductionSalesDeficit/Surplus Japan8,117,5634,289,6833,827,880 Germany5,301,1893,341,7181,959,471 U.S.4,879,1198,422,625-3,543,506 France3,181,5492,254,732 926,817 S. Korea2,471,4441,065,1611,406,283 Spain2,211,1721,437,192 773,980 Brazil1,495,6221,295,119 200,503 U.K.1,492,3652,458,769 -966,404 Canada1,274,853 868,188 406,665 Mexico1,000,715 667,565 333,150 China 703,521 780,604 -77,083 India 573,808 601,321 -27,513 Sweden 251,035 246,581 4,454 Source: Wards World Motor Vehicle Data 2002

Sales By Country774,6913,578,1304,470,238 U.S.172,505955,711 426,974 Germany 237,815 (733,649) 98,999 1,008,742 (1,954,009) U.K. 93,348113,799 290,000 Spain 35,167 20,897 335,590 France 35,836 52,592 257,215 Japan- 1,587,882 (3,421,583)- China- 70,326 358,213 Brazil- 12,217 369,716 Passenger Car Sales By Manufacturer Source: Wards World Motor Vehicle Data 2002

CountryExportsImports Net Balance Their Current a/c as % of GDP Canada190.2255.9-65.82.9% Euro Area127.1210.1-82.90.8% Mexico110.8155.8-45.1-1.2% Japan54.4129.6-75.23.4% United Kingdom36.046.4-10.4-2.0% China34.7196.7-162.02.4% Germany31.477.2-45.94.4% Korea26.346.1-19.83.1% Netherlands24.312.611.72.9% Taiwan21.734.6-12.96.9% France21.231.8-10.6-0.6% Australia14.37.56.7-5.3% International Trade Balance (2004) In Billions of Dollars

The Bill Gross View - Bill Gross Founder and Chief Investment Officer Pimco, Newport Beach, Calif. The Fed controls short rates. Intermediate and long rates are determined by institutions, individuals and foreign central banks, such as Chinas, which have been massive buyers of Treasuries. Source: Barrons, January 19, 2004

10-Year Bond Rate and Trade Deficit Source: Nov 2004, Forecast of the Nation CPI Inflation2.72.31.61.8 10-Year Bond Rate4.34.75.46.0 Core1.82.11.92.1

This is Happening Now! 150 Basis Points Hike in 7 Months Long-End is DOWN by 60 Basis Points!

The Money$$ Diamond RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE JOB GROWTH CONFIDENCE OILEUROTRADE DEFICIT INTEREST RATES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Economic Fallacies & Forecasting Truths Trade Deficit is a Bad Thing Fiscal Deficits Matter For Interest Rates - Paper Money Vs. Goods: INFLATE AWAY! -New Gold Brick of the World is the Dollar (Euro will appreciate another 10%, so God Save The Union!) -Export-Led Growth Strategy of East Asia & China is the New Player on the World Stage -Deficits Matter for Long Term Growth But We are All Dead in the Long Run!

What is the federal budget deficit? It is a gigantic number of dollars - like 300 jillion skillion drillion that the federal government is spending, despite not actually having it. Is that legal? It is if you have nuclear weapons Why does the government spend so much money? Because it must pay for important federal programs such as Social Security, the War on Terrorism, and the artificial rainforest in Iowa. The rainforest will also teach important educational lessons. Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March, 2004 Explaining the Headache that is the Federal Deficit by Dave Barry Such as? Such as that Congress is as trustworthy with money as a crack addict who is experimenting with heroin. What is our political leadership in Washington doing about the deficit problem? They're being total slime weasels. They're spending MORE. They're pandering their brains out. The Republicans just added a hugely expensive new drug benefit for senior citizens, which the Democrats have bitterly criticized because it isn't expensive ENOUGH.

Bushs Budget Proposal Winners Department of Veterans Affairs2.7% Homeland Security Department6.8% Defense Department4.5% Treasury Department3.9% Department of Justice1% 11.5%Department of Housing and Urban Development 9.6%Department of Agriculture 5.6%Environmental Protection Agency 4.4%Labor Department 2.0%Department of Energy Losers Source: The Atlanta Journal Constitution, Feb. 8, 2005

Source: Business Economics, January 2005

Source: WSJ, February 8, 2005 Source: Business Economics, January 2005

Cartoon: Nick Anderson, Kentucky, The Louisville Courier - Journal

Final Parting Advice!

Source: WSJ, March 19, 2002 25 Worst Cliches 6. 6."The euro set new lows for the session on signs of a U.S. economic rebound We haven't the slightest inkling what the Connection is between the euro and the U.S. economy. But there has to be some explanation for the currency's tumble. 7. 7."Stocks are expected to open lower on Monday " Sure, we're right only half the time. But Sammy Sosa would kill for that sort of batting average. 9. 9."Bond prices fell in anticipation of higher interest rates" Or maybe interest rates rose in anticipation of lower bond prices. How could we possibly know? We majored in English. 10. 10."Many investors fear there's more stock-market carnage to come Everybody in the newsroom is totally freaked out.

Source: WSJ, March 19, 2002 25 Worst Cliches 13. 13."While many small investors have suffered big losses recently, few can rival the dismal record of Mr. Warren, who owns just three stocks -- Kmart, Enron and Global Crossing Can you believe this guy agreed to speak to us? It's amazing what people will tell the press. 20. 20."The fund's risk-adjusted performance is among the best in the growth-and-income category" Its raw performance stinks. 24. 24."The fund's manager avoids swinging for the fences, instead aiming to hit singles and doubles" Maybe the sports page has some openings. 25. 25."Today's boardroom Sturm und Drang left many observers with a sense of deja vu" And if the foreign editor asks, tell her our Italian is also pretty good.

lecture 8: growth theory, stock market, long run issues and china dr. rajeev dhawan director given...

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