LectureLecture

GEOG 270GEOG 270

Fall 2007Fall 2007

October 8, 2007October 8, 2007

Joe Hannah, PhDJoe Hannah, PhDDepartment of GeographyDepartment of Geography

University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington

Demographic Transition Demographic Transition and Wealth Flowsand Wealth Flows

GEOG 270GEOG 270Geography of Development and Environmental ChangeGeography of Development and Environmental Change

Two more Population TheoriesTwo more Population Theories

Recap Last LectureRecap Last Lecture

Unchecked population growth always Unchecked population growth always exceeds the growth of means of exceeds the growth of means of subsistencesubsistence

► Film: Film: Future in the CradleFuture in the Cradle – the factual – the factual and the rhetorical messagesand the rhetorical messages

Time

Pop

ula

tio n

/ Fo

od

Pro

duct

ion

Population(geometric)

Food Production(arithmetic)

Recap Last LectureRecap Last Lecture

Today:Today:

I.I. Demographic Demographic TransitionTransition

II.II. Wealth Flows TheoryWealth Flows Theory

Demographic Transition Demographic Transition TheoryTheory

Developed in the 1940s to explain the Developed in the 1940s to explain the historic shifts in birth and death rates historic shifts in birth and death rates that accompanied shifts from that accompanied shifts from “traditional” to “modern” society (at “traditional” to “modern” society (at least in industrial countries)least in industrial countries)

The Demographic Transition The Demographic Transition ModelModel

►Pre-industrialization: Pre-industrialization: LOW GROWTHLOW GROWTH high birth rates, high mortality rateshigh birth rates, high mortality rates

►During industrialization: During industrialization: HIGH GROWTHHIGH GROWTH – – declining mortality rates (due to improved declining mortality rates (due to improved

health and living conditions) health and living conditions) plusplus Birth rates start to decline Birth rates start to decline after a time lagafter a time lag

►““Modern” industrial society: Modern” industrial society: LOW LOW GROWTHGROWTH low birth rates and low mortality rateslow birth rates and low mortality rates

The Classic The Classic Demographic Transition GraphDemographic Transition Graph

Time

Death

R

ate

/ B

irth

Rate

Age Structure ChangesAge Structure Changes

High growth rates

Low growth rates

Applicable to Developing Applicable to Developing Countries?Countries?

►Demographic Transition Theory was Demographic Transition Theory was developed to explain historical developed to explain historical phenomena in the Westphenomena in the West

►Dem. Transition vs. Malthusian theory:Dem. Transition vs. Malthusian theory: Both link population growth with Both link population growth with

economic develomenteconomic develoment Malthus: dev’t requires lower fertilityMalthus: dev’t requires lower fertility Dem. Transition: dev’t results in lower Dem. Transition: dev’t results in lower

fertilityfertility

Ethnocentric AssumptionsEthnocentric Assumptions(according to Robbins)(according to Robbins)

► Assumes historically that fertility rates Assumes historically that fertility rates always and everywhere have been high, in always and everywhere have been high, in order to balance high death ratesorder to balance high death rates

► Assume that pre-industrial societies would Assume that pre-industrial societies would not/could not control their own fertilitynot/could not control their own fertility

► Assumes that the only way to control Assumes that the only way to control fertility rates is Western medical & fertility rates is Western medical & contraceptive modelcontraceptive model

► Therefore, resistance to adopt contraception Therefore, resistance to adopt contraception is irrational, religious, traditional or fatalistic. is irrational, religious, traditional or fatalistic. Contraception is rational and modern.Contraception is rational and modern.

Chicken or Egg?Chicken or Egg?

►Marxist theorists maintain that Marxist theorists maintain that capitalist expansion causes increased capitalist expansion causes increased populations, in part to create a labor populations, in part to create a labor surplus enabling access to a large and surplus enabling access to a large and cheap labor supply;cheap labor supply;

►Demographic transition theorists say Demographic transition theorists say that the people themselves are the that the people themselves are the cause of overpopulation because they cause of overpopulation because they persist in “traditional” approaches to persist in “traditional” approaches to their own fertility.their own fertility.

““Traditional” Fertility Traditional” Fertility ManagementManagement

“… “… human populations have human populations have consistently adjusted fertility rates to consistently adjusted fertility rates to local economic and social conditions…local economic and social conditions…

That is, high fertility rates are not the That is, high fertility rates are not the result of ignorance, outmoded result of ignorance, outmoded religious values, or lack of education religious values, or lack of education but the result of social or economic but the result of social or economic factors that people, largely women, factors that people, largely women, react to in order to adjust the size of react to in order to adjust the size of their families…” their families…” (Robbins, p. 147)(Robbins, p. 147)

Critiques of “Standard” Critiques of “Standard” Approaches to Population and Approaches to Population and

DevelopmentDevelopment

““Traditional demographic theory, and Traditional demographic theory, and most public policy and government most public policy and government analysts, suggest that the rapid rise in analysts, suggest that the rapid rise in population in poor countries is due population in poor countries is due to… the importation of Western to… the importation of Western medical technology and public health medical technology and public health measures.” measures.” (Robbins, p. 147)(Robbins, p. 147)

The alternative explanation:The alternative explanation:Capitalism Capitalism CausesCauses

OverpopulationOverpopulation►When the poor work for wages, it When the poor work for wages, it

makes sense to have more childrenmakes sense to have more children Increase the number of wage-earnersIncrease the number of wage-earners Children take on domestic work, freeing Children take on domestic work, freeing

adults (esp. women) to work for wagesadults (esp. women) to work for wages► In fact, population in many parts of the In fact, population in many parts of the

periphery began growing rapidly under periphery began growing rapidly under colonialism, colonialism, beforebefore the introduction of the introduction of “modern” health care (e.g., Java “modern” health care (e.g., Java 1800s, Sudan 1920s)1800s, Sudan 1920s)

II. Wealth Flows TheoryII. Wealth Flows Theory

►Children can still contribute to economy of Children can still contribute to economy of the household the household (extended family);(extended family);

►Family security: providing for the elderly; Family security: providing for the elderly; security in times of need (by increasing security in times of need (by increasing the number of cooperating individuals)the number of cooperating individuals)

► Increase political allies/clansIncrease political allies/clans

All All rationalrational reasons based on the ability reasons based on the ability of children to contribute positively to an of children to contribute positively to an extended family household.extended family household.

Nuclear Family FlowsNuclear Family Flows

► Children in Western nuclear family model Children in Western nuclear family model “consume wealth” rather than “produce “consume wealth” rather than “produce wealth”:wealth”:

For 2004, the newest data available, the For 2004, the newest data available, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that families making $70,200 a year or that families making $70,200 a year or more will spend a whopping $269,520 to more will spend a whopping $269,520 to raise a child from birth through age 17. raise a child from birth through age 17. Higher-income families in urban areas in Higher-income families in urban areas in the West spend the most, $284,460.the West spend the most, $284,460.

(MSM Money central)(MSM Money central)

What changes are What changes are necessary?necessary?

►Are contraceptive measures enough?Are contraceptive measures enough?►Do Third World Societies “need” to Do Third World Societies “need” to

restructure the fundamental family unit restructure the fundamental family unit along Western lines in order to have along Western lines in order to have the incentives to reduce fertility?the incentives to reduce fertility?

►What unforeseen effects will changes to What unforeseen effects will changes to family structure have on the rest of family structure have on the rest of society, on emotional, social and society, on emotional, social and economic ties?economic ties?